NAC Statistics - any news?
cnislev
players, great atmosphere and venue and great games - the only thing
missing was more VPs and game wins (for me, that is).
During the tournament players were asked to note down the turns in
which different players were ousted, to provide some interesting
statistics on tournament games. I just wanted to hear if there is any
news from the statisticians on this?
thanks, Christian
Johannes Walch
Fastest Sweep: Turn 5
_angst_
Ruben's been at the Panders again? ;)
The Lasombra
>First of all, thanks for a great tournament to all organisers and
>players, great atmosphere and venue and great games - the only thing
>missing was more VPs and game wins (for me, that is).
Glad you came and enjoyed it!
>During the tournament players were asked to note down the turns in
>which different players were ousted, to provide some interesting
>statistics on tournament games. I just wanted to hear if there is any
>news from the statisticians on this?
There is a preliminary spreadsheet available, here:
http://www.thelasombra.com/Turns_per_game_WoN_NAC_2009.zip
Data mining is underway.....
Not all 1st Chance events had that noted. There were 9 reports that we
had to throw out because they were not complete. We only had a few
reports that noted which player # was ousted in which turn.
The turn count form will be updated and online sometime later this
week.
The Lasombra
>>During the tournament players were asked to note down the turns in
>>which different players were ousted, to provide some interesting
>>statistics on tournament games. I just wanted to hear if there is any
>>news from the statisticians on this?
>There is a preliminary spreadsheet available, here:
>http://www.thelasombra.com/Turns_per_game_WoN_NAC_2009.zip
>Data mining is underway.....
Out of 142 recorded games....
21 games had ousts on turn 5
48 on or by turn 6
76 on or by turn 7
94 on or by turn 8
111 on or by turn 9
126 on or by turn 10
133 on or by turn 11
If there were no ousts by turn 11, the likelihood of the game timing
out with no game win increased dramatically (6 of 9).
If a game was going to time out, it was most likely to happen on turns
12-13-14. (4/6/5 each)
Every game that went more than 20 turns finished (2).
122 games finished in 15 turns or fewer.
73 games finished in 12 turns or fewer (i.e. just more than half).
4 games finished on turn 7 or earlier
10 games finished on turn 8 or earlier
14 games finished on turn 9 or earlier
26 games finished on turn 10 or earlier
48 games finished on turn 11 or earlier
73 games finished on turn 12 or earlier
95 games finished on turn 13 or earlier
107 games finished on turn 14 or earlier
cnislev
> On Sun, 11 Oct 2009 12:17:27 -0400, The Lasombra wrote:
> >>During the tournament players were asked to note down the turns in
> >>which different players were ousted, to provide some interesting
> >>statistics on tournament games. I just wanted to hear if there is any
> >>news from the statisticians on this?
> >There is a preliminary spreadsheet available, here:
> >http://www.thelasombra.com/Turns_per_game_WoN_NAC_2009.zip
Interesting stuff
>
> Out of 142 recorded games....
>
> 21 games had ousts on turn 5
> 48 on or by turn 6
> 76 on or by turn 7
> 94 on or by turn 8
> 111 on or by turn 9
> 126 on or by turn 10
> 133 on or by turn 11
> If there were no ousts by turn 11, the likelihood of the game timing
> out with no game win increased dramatically (6 of 9).
>
so when turn 10 is about to end with no ousts, its time to make vp
deals :-)
Kevin M.
> The Lasombra wrote:
>> cnislev wrote:
>>> During the tournament players were asked to note down the turns
>>> in which different players were ousted, to provide some interesting
>>> statistics on tournament games. I just wanted to hear if there is
>>> any news from the statisticians on this?
>
>> There is a preliminary spreadsheet available, here:
>> http://www.thelasombra.com/Turns_per_game_WoN_NAC_2009.zip
>
>> Data mining is underway.....
>
> Out of 142 recorded games....
>
> 21 games had ousts on turn 5
> 48 on or by turn 6
> 76 on or by turn 7
> 94 on or by turn 8
> 111 on or by turn 9
> 126 on or by turn 10
> 133 on or by turn 11
> If there were no ousts by turn 11, the likelihood of the game timing
> out with no game win increased dramatically (6 of 9).
**OUSTS**
Turn 5: 21
Turn 6: 27
Turn 7: 28
Turn 8: 18
Turn 9: 17
Turn 10: 15
Turn 11: 13
> If a game was going to time out, it was most likely to happen on turns
> 12-13-14. (4/6/5 each)
>
> Every game that went more than 20 turns finished (2).
>
> 122 games finished in 15 turns or fewer.
> 73 games finished in 12 turns or fewer (i.e. just more than half).
>
> 4 games finished on turn 7 or earlier
> 10 games finished on turn 8 or earlier
> 14 games finished on turn 9 or earlier
> 26 games finished on turn 10 or earlier
> 48 games finished on turn 11 or earlier
> 73 games finished on turn 12 or earlier
> 95 games finished on turn 13 or earlier
> 107 games finished on turn 14 or earlier
**LAST TURN**
Turn 7 or
earlier: 4
Turn 8: 6
Turn 9: 4
Turn 10: 12
Turn 11: 22
Turn 12: 25
Turn 13: 22
Turn 14: 12
Turn 15: 15
Didn't the venerable Derek Ray first make the Turn 12
declaration years ago?
I'd LOVE to see a differentiation made between 4- and 5-player
tables, but I personally know how time-consuming that can be!
Nice statistics, Lasombra. I may do this for Origins next year,
so that we can compare! :)
Kevin M., Prince of Las Vegas
"Know your enemy and know yourself; in one-thousand battles
you shall never be in peril." -- Sun Tzu, *The Art of War*
"Contentment...Complacency...Catastrophe!" -- Joseph Chevalier
Please visit VTESville daily! http://vtesville.myminicity.com/
Please buy my cards! http://shop.ebay.com/kjmergen/m.html
The Lasombra
>I'd LOVE to see a differentiation made between 4- and 5-player
>tables, but I personally know how time-consuming that can be!
The data's there.....
The third column details the number of players, so you could sort on
that first.
http://www.thelasombra.com/Turns_per_game_WoN_NAC_2009.zip
The Lasombra
>>During the tournament players were asked to note down the turns in
>>which different players were ousted, to provide some interesting
>>statistics on tournament games. I just wanted to hear if there is any
>>news from the statisticians on this?
>There is a preliminary spreadsheet available, here:
>http://www.thelasombra.com/Turns_per_game_WoN_NAC_2009.zip
>Data mining is underway.....
Average number of turns, over all games, including timeouts:
12 Median
12.70422535 Average
Average number of turns, excluding the games that ended in timeouts:
12 Median
12.35897436 Average
Robert Goudie
> Didn't the venerable Derek Ray first make the Turn 12
> declaration years ago?
Good memory. I was about to post that it was me since I remembered
tracking results a long time ago. But after reading some old posts it
appears that I took notes in order to confirm Derek's findings.
-Robert
Nikolaj "Lord of the Betrayers" Wendt
It's like the numbers are trying to tell us something...
Someone! Call Dan Brown! Quick!
The Lasombra
>>During the tournament players were asked to note down the turns in
>>which different players were ousted, to provide some interesting
>>statistics on tournament games. I just wanted to hear if there is any
>>news from the statisticians on this?
>There is a preliminary spreadsheet available, here:
>http://www.thelasombra.com/Turns_per_game_WoN_NAC_2009.zip
If you would like to track turns at your own events, consider using
the following report form. (4 per page, print front & back)
http://www.TheLasombra.com/Turn_counts.zip
Carpe noctem.
The Lasombra
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