Innes' bogus stats (was: Draws in professional chess -- strange contradictory attitude) - rec.games.chess.misc

Message from discussion Innes' bogus stats (was: Draws in professional chess -- strange contradictory attitude)

Taylor Kingston

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More options Feb 11 2007, 11:19 am

Newsgroups: rec.games.chess.misc

From: "Taylor Kingston" <tkings...@chittenden.com>

Date: 11 Feb 2007 08:19:43 -0800

Local: Sun, Feb 11 2007 11:19 am

Subject: Innes' bogus stats (was: Draws in professional chess -- strange contradictory attitude)

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On Feb 10, 7:40 am, "Chess One" <inn...@verizon.net> wrote:

> Historically I have much data on WDL stats - in W Ch games, the highest draw
> rates are archieved by Smyslov at 57.9% draws with black and 50.3% draws
> with white - who is exceeded by Petrosian with 61.5% draws with black and
> 49.0% draws with white.

Phil, I don't know where you're getting your stats, but they do not
look at all accurate. You are including _ONLY_ world championship
games? You did say "in W Ch games," right? In that case, my sources
show these data for the players you name:

Smyslov:
Hague-Moscow 1948: +6 -4 =10
Botvinnik match 1954: +7 -7 =10
Botvinnik match 1957: +6 -3 =13
Botvinnik match 1958: +5 -7 =11
--------------------------------------------------
totals: +24 -21 =44

draw percentage = 44/89 = 49.4%

It is impossible to draw "57.9% with black and 50.3% with white" and
yet come out with an overall drawing percentagle of 49.4%. Either the
white or black percentage could be higher than the overall percentage,
but not both.

Petrosian:
Botvinnik match 1963: +5 -2 =15
Spassky match 1966: +4 -3 =17
Spassky match 1969: +4 -6 =13
--------------------------------------------------
totals: +13 -11 =45

draw percentage 45/69 = 65.2%

This again contradicts your claim of "61.5% draws with black and
49.0% draws with white" for Petrosian. Either the white or black
percentage could be lower than the overall percentage, but not both.

> The LOWEST draw rate appears to be Steinitz, with 21.7% draws with black and
> 17.9% draws with white.

The stats again contradict you. In six title matches, Steinitz
scored +43 -33 =29, a draw rate of 27.6%. While this is still probably
the lowest draw rate, your percentages are rather off.

> Of popular players:

> Alekhine: 30.5% draws black, 24.3% draws white

Again, where are you getting this? In five title matches, Alekhine
scored +43 -24 =73, a draw rate of 52.14%

> Fischer: 36.9% draws black, 24.8% draws white

This one should have been easy even for you Phil, since Fischer
played only one title match, scoring +7 -3 =11. That's 52.4%. Even if
we include the 1992 Spassky match, it's still about the same, +17 -8
=26, or 51.0%.

> Kasparov, 47.3% draws black, 30.8% draws white

This is amazingly wrong even by your standards, Phil. In eight title
matches from 1984 to 2000, Kasparov scored +31 -23 =143, a draw
percentage of 143/197 = 72.6%. You are off by a factor of two.

I would recommend tossing out your ouija board or random number
generator in favor of some accurate sources such as Winter's "World
Chess Champions" or Gelo's "Chess World Championships 1834-2004."

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