Double, Raise or Pass?

[Tom]

Duplicate at the community centre

Vul against not, West holds

xxx
Axxx
x
QJxxx

The bidding:

W N E S
- - - 1H
P 2H 2S 4H
P P 4S 5H
?

Double, raise or pass? Is the choice obvious?

[Henry Lockwood]

For me, that's a raise: though double could be right. Partner's
bidding like a fool if they make, with me holding this lot, so I have
to trust him. Not sure it's going off far enough, hence the raise.

HenryL

[sofos]

I did not raise when I first had a chance. Raising now tells the
opponents they can push me
around any time they please. I think double planing to lead a diamond
and then a spade when
I get the lead next seems reasonable.

[Eric Leong]

I would bid 5S. Partner who is vulnerable against not bid 4S all on
his own says he is close to making 4S. Having not bid 4S earlier,
which I would have done, I would think bidding 5S for a make is clear.
I would think 5Sx is going down at most one trick and if so then I
would think 5H is making. I think RHO is bidding on with the red
suits which suggests our side has a black suit fit and with controls
in both red suits suggests 5S is making.

Eric Leong

[Adam Beneschan]

I'd double and lead a diamond, but it's not at all obvious---except that I think passing is clearly wrong. It's close between doubling and bidding. I'm just not sure who has what, but I'm more confident about beating 5H than I am about making 5S.

-- Adam

[Thomas Dehn]

How sane is partner?

I'm doubling.


Thomas

[Adam Beneschan]

On Friday, April 13, 2012 3:55:49 AM UTC-7, sofos wrote:

> > > xxx
> > > Axxx
> > > x
> > > QJxxx

>
> I did not raise when I first had a chance. Raising now tells the
> opponents they can push me
> around any time they please. I think double planing to lead a diamond
> and then a spade when
> I get the lead next seems reasonable.

The problem is that if you're trying to get to partner with a spade for your diamond ruff, there's a real risk that declarer is void. I'd rather lead a club if partner has that ace. It has to be right to hold off on one round of trumps; assuming he only has one trump, that will give him a chance to make a helpful signal when you win the second round.

-- Adam

[Will in New Haven]

I had bid 4S on the previous round. So now partner can do what he
wants.

If aliens from outer space had bid me be silent on the previous round,
I would bid 5S now. It might make. It might be down one against a
making 5H. We might have a slam. ?Quien Sabe?

--
Will in New Haven

[Adam Beneschan]

On Friday, April 13, 2012 10:09:33 AM UTC-7, Will in New Haven wrote:
> On Apr 13, 5:52 am, Tom <toman...@notmye-mailaddress.com> wrote:
> > Duplicate at the community centre
> >
> > Vul against not,  West holds
> >
> > xxx
> > Axxx
> > x
> > QJxxx
> >
> > The bidding:
> >
> > W       N       E        S
> > -       -       -       1H
> > P       2H      2S      4H
> > P       P       4S      5H
> > ?
> >
> > Double, raise or pass?  Is the choice obvious?
>
> I had bid 4S on the previous round. So now partner can do what he
> wants.

What do you expect partner to have for his 2S bid? Marty Bergen recomments players "pre-balance" on this sort of auction; if your partner follows this sort of practice, he may not have much and 4S would be in deep trouble. But even if your partner is a solid citizen, say you give him AQxxx x Qxxx Kxx. Would that not be enough? That leaves the opponents bidding game on just 22 HCP. And just to be nice, I've even given your partner and honor and some length in your side suit, and not much waste opposite your singleton. And even then, I'd say 4S is not likely to make and has a decent chance of going down two doubled, a disaster at this vulnerability; if the king of spades is off, we're probably down at least a couple, while if it's onside, then it looks like we have good chances of beating 4H.

So no, I'm not willing to bid 4S at this vulnerability without knowing that partner has extra length in spades. It looks to me like partner needs a perfect hand for this to pay off, a lot more than he's promised by merely competing with 2S.

-- Adam

[dak...@aol.com]

4S over 4H last round.
Now too likely there's a double fit both ways. 5S.

[Thomas Dehn]

On 04/13/2012 05:04 PM, Eric Leong wrote:
> On Apr 13, 2:52 am, Tom<toman...@notmye-mailaddress.com> wrote:
>> Duplicate at the community centre
>>
>> Vul against not, West holds
>>
>> xxx
>> Axxx
>> x
>> QJxxx
>>
>> The bidding:
>>
>> W N E S
>> - - - 1H
>> P 2H 2S 4H
>> P P 4S 5H
>> ?
>>
>> Double, raise or pass? Is the choice obvious?
>
> I would bid 5S. Partner who is vulnerable against not bid 4S all on
> his own says he is close to making 4S.

Surely with a hand that is "close to making 4S"
partner would simply bid 4S over 2H?



Thomas

[Will in New Haven]

On Apr 13, 2:00 pm, Adam Beneschan <a...@irvine.com> wrote:
> On Friday, April 13, 2012 10:09:33 AM UTC-7, Will in New Haven wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> > On Apr 13, 5:52 am, Tom <toman...@notmye-mailaddress.com> wrote:
> > > Duplicate at the community centre
>
> > > Vul against not,  West holds
>
> > > xxx
> > > Axxx
> > > x
> > > QJxxx
>
> > > The bidding:
>
> > > W       N       E        S
> > > -       -       -       1H
> > > P       2H      2S      4H
> > > P       P       4S      5H
> > > ?
>
> > > Double, raise or pass?  Is the choice obvious?
>
> > I had bid 4S on the previous round. So now partner can do what he
> > wants.
>
> What do you expect partner to have for his 2S bid?  Marty Bergen recomments players "pre-balance" on this sort of auction; if your partner follows this sort of practice, he may not have much and 4S would be in deep trouble.

How many of the players at this community center, do you think, are
likely to be pre-balancing?

But even if your partner is a solid citizen, say you give him AQxxx x
Qxxx Kxx.  Would that not be enough?

No. That's a pile of crap. If my partner has that hand, I will pay
off. Certainly, he needs another Spade to be in their live auction, if
nothing else.

--
Will in New Haven

That leaves the opponents bidding game on just 22 HCP.  And just to be
nice, I've even given your partner and honor and some length in your
side suit, and not much waste opposite your singleton.  And even then,
I'd say 4S is not likely to make and has a decent chance of going down
two doubled, a disaster at this vulnerability; if the king of spades
is off, we're probably down at least a couple, while if it's onside,
then it looks like we have good chances of beating 4H.
>
> So no, I'm not willing to bid 4S at this vulnerability without knowing that partner has extra length in spades.  It looks to me like partner needs a perfect hand for this to pay off, a lot more than he's promised by merely competing with 2S.
>

>                  -- Adam- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -

[vsp...@hotmail.com]

On Friday, April 13, 2012 2:52:59 AM UTC-7, Tom wrote:

The other three players on the table are all
concealing their hands from me.
Partner is likely to hold a singleton or void
in hearts. Partner also has ten cards in spades
and a minor. But I don't know which minor.
He is either 5-5 or 6-4 in the two suits.
Opponents had a chance to show their second suit
and choose not to.
If partner's second suit is diamonds, double 5H
for penalties, else bid 5S. Diamonds is more
likely to be the second suit since we have fewer
diamonds. Therefore I double. Also double may
be right even if partner has clubs.

[peter cheung]

pd bid 2s first then 4s.
he must have a hand with good hcp and long spade and no heart.
i am going to give him AKxxxxx void and any combination of c and d
with at least 6 good HCP.
The key is whether he has the CK(or CA) or not for making 5s.
If he has KQJ and xxx then 5s and 5h will not make. if he has kxx and
kxx then 5s make and 5h may or may not.
If he has AKQxxxx in spades than his chance of having the CK or CA is
much lower.
Since this is MP i'll double for a higher % that 5h will not make then
5s making.

[Andrew]

On Friday, April 13, 2012 2:52:59 AM UTC-7, Tom wrote:

These types of auctions indicate there is a lot of shape around the table. partner has a heart void and RHO may be 6-5 in the red suits. I take insurance. 5S.

[Eric Leong]

If the hand is a disaster in 4S after I can contribute 3.5 tricks to
partner via 1.5 diamonds, heart ace, club queen then the problem is
with partner's vulnerable vs not 2S bid.

Eric Leong

[Eric Leong]

I don't know what partner's specific motivation in bidding 4S the way
he did. What I do know is that partner is not gambling on me to
contribute three tricks for him especially when we are vulnerable and
the opponents are not. Since I can contribute about 3.5 tricks to
partner one would thing bidding 5S is easy.

Eric Leong

[Fred.]

I can't see the 3.5 tricks advancer is going to contribute,
partularly if overcaller has a heart void, which I wouldn't
find surprising. I'd think lots of diamond holdings are
going to leave dummy entryless against accurate defense. Can
you explain?

Thanks,

Fred.

[Henry Lockwood]

I disagree - suppose they lead a trump, which declarer wins (assuming
he has the ace). He then ducks a diamond; oppo lead another trump,
which declarer wins; he then has a diamond ruff for an entry.

This relies on declarer having AK or AQ for his bidding, and more-than-
one diamond: neither of which seems outrageous.

HenryL

[Jean Pierre Fontenille]

Let us examine the possibilities :

5H done 450
total tricks law says 17 maybe 18 trick for the best. so 6 maybe 7 tricks with spades....

5h down... 5s down il double u get 50 or 100 more but if 5H= then... 200 for them... is it valuable ? must be 80% confident...

So pass is mandatory
Normal... ur vuln and they are not.

[Fred.]

Sorry. I scrambled my clubs and diamonds. Before RHO bids
5H, which, with only 9 trumps, probably denies a spade to
lead, I see 2 ruffs and the heart ace for 3 tricks assuming
that partner has the pointy aces, though this is not certain.
I can't see counting half a trick for the club holding since
partner's 2S overcall doesnt' promise more than 5 trump.
Partner can't use a ruffing entry to reach established clubs.

Once RHO bids 5H and some chance of a 3rd ruff appears, I am
willing to count the hand as 3.5 tricks.

I fully agree with Eric's 5S. I think 4S over 4H is also
correct assuming partner does not pre-balance.

Fred.

[Chris xxxxx]

I think 5S is best. Double may be the right choice as often as 5S,
but I don't expect it to pay as many matchpoints when it is right,
since we will often have already lost a third of the board in the
auction in those cases.

I expect partner to have seven spades and roughly 8 or 8-1/2 playing
tricks, since with more he doesn't have his 2S bid and with fewer he
doesn't have his 4S bid. If his hand looks like AKxxxxx -- KQJx xx,
both five level contracts are down. If he has AKQxxxx -- Kxx Kxx,
then 5H may be on ice whilst 5S has decent play.

Christopher Monsour

[Thomas Dehn]

Some people might bid 2S with nine tricks in their hand.
If you are playing with somebody walking the dog
like that, usually you know.

If that is not the case, then there mere fact that partner bid
2S earlier rules out that he has such a good hand. Yes, he
is expecting that you are contributing quite a bid. Perhaps
he concluded from the auction that the HCP he knows you must
have are likely to be where they are useful to him.

Or he is a lunatic; albeit, if you are playing with one,
you probably know that, too.


Thomas