Received: by 10.66.86.98 with SMTP id o2mr5699718paz.29.1352578106618;
        Sat, 10 Nov 2012 12:08:26 -0800 (PST)
Received: by 10.68.223.98 with SMTP id qt2mr4569400pbc.20.1352578106602; Sat,
 10 Nov 2012 12:08:26 -0800 (PST)
Path: s9ni3584pbb.0!nntp.google.com!kr7no463100pbb.0!postnews.google.com!glegroupsg2000goo.googlegroups.com!not-for-mail
Newsgroups: rec.games.bridge
Date: Sat, 10 Nov 2012 12:08:26 -0800 (PST)
In-Reply-To: <58aa628d-c2ae-46da-82a6-f60534f8ebe0@googlegroups.com>
Complaints-To: groups-abuse@google.com
Injection-Info: glegroupsg2000goo.googlegroups.com; posting-host=68.9.57.99; posting-account=D0ZAXQkAAAB95bnDc5PTlYfOhWBtHv19
NNTP-Posting-Host: 68.9.57.99
References: <26e30447-021e-4371-8cea-c2febc1cf573@googlegroups.com> <58aa628d-c2ae-46da-82a6-f60534f8ebe0@googlegroups.com>
User-Agent: G2/1.0
MIME-Version: 1.0
Message-ID: <352ace5f-a7f5-4415-8967-856bf9001b3e@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Would you open 2C?
From: Bertil <stigfjor...@hotmail.com>
Injection-Date: Sat, 10 Nov 2012 20:08:26 +0000
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1

On Saturday, November 10, 2012 1:55:38 PM UTC-5, Bertil wrote:
> On Friday, November 9, 2012 10:37:50 AM UTC-5, Bertil wrote:
> 
> > As dealer you look at AKQJ7--AQ--AJT--986. 
> 
> > 
> 
> > Does it qualify for a 2C opening bid in ACBL-land?
> 
> > 
> 
> > It has 6 LTC but only 4.5 QT.
> 
> > 
> 
> > 
> 
> > 
> 
> > Bertil
> 
> > 
> 
> > USA
> 
> 
> 
> A variety of opinions have been offered, but few are based on any attempt to 
> 
> take into consideration  that partner can hold any one of 8 billion diffferent
> 
> hands varying from 0 to 19 HCP, wit many hand patterns.
> 
> 
> 
> Most 'opinions' are based on assumption that partner has some 'useful' points,
> 
> for which there is some support in theory. E.g the probability that the \partnership holds at least  24 HCp is 90% and for 25HCP it's 81%, for 26 HCP it's 71%,and it gradually decreases to 5% for 33 HCP.
> 
> 
> 
> But the only objective way of deciding if 1S, 2C or 2NT would be the best
> 
> opening in Std. Am. type bidding, would be to do a DD analysis of at least 
> 
> 100 random deals, but better yet 1000 deals.
> 
> 
> 
> Lacking the abitlity to do this I decided to look at 50 deals using the free
> 
> generator at "Play Bridge" and manually counting HCP in partner's hand.
> 
> I found an average of 5.9 with a std.dev. of 3.1. Thus it was not surprising 
> 
> to find 2 deals with 0 HCP, but startling to see one of each with 13 and 15 HCP.
> 
> Admittedly this is a very small sample,but it's worth noting that 20 deals
> 
> had less than 6 HCP.
> 
> 
> 
> Just looking at the 50 deals I get the feeling that 1S would be the best opener.
> 
>Correction: change 1S to 2C 
> 
> I would welcome a DD analysis of at least 100 deals to show what one might
> 
> expect to happen in terms of makable bids.
> 
> 
> 
> Bertil