Plan the play
Cakemeister
Matchpoints, no opposining bidding
K963
-
A32
AKJ532
AJ74
AQJ7432
K
4
Too bad you don't have the 10 of hearts or else you would want to be in 6NT.
A diamond is led.
This is a complicated hand where a number of lines of play could work. But
what do you think is the best line?
Regards,
Cakemeister
kingfish
***
I would try to set up dummy. After the diamond king wins, club to
ace, club ruff. Heart ace, throwing a diamond, spade ace and spade to
king. Club ruff. this wins with 4-2 clubs and 3-2 spades.
Sandy Barnes
***
Charles Brenner
which adds to 60%. Starting with a spade finesse gives you a lot more
chances, but most of them are splinter chances so I don't think they
amount to much. The big difference is that when LHO or RHO has Qxx of
spades you are still 85% (to pick up the clubs with two ruffs),
whereas after a losing finesse to Qx or Qxx the remaining chance is
only 50+% (to pick up the clubs with one ruff).
Charles
Cakemeister
"kingfish" <sandyba...@verizon.net> wrote in message
news:3d047a6a-5c15-4919...@i36g2000prf.googlegroups.com...
Sandy Barnes
***
I wonder what the probability of this line is as opposed to the crossruff
line.
Unfortunately, your play fails as the cards lay, barring a defensive error.
RHO had:
Q10xx
Kxx
Jxx
Qxx
So, when you play ace of clubs, ruff a club, ace of hearts, ace of spades,
king of spades, LHO will show out. Now you can play the king of clubs and
thankfully the queen drops.
That leaves something like:
9x
-
A
Jxx
Q10
Kx
Jx
-
J
QJxxx
-
-
All RHO has to do is duck dummy's four winners and he will take the last two
tricks with the Q10 of spades.
The crossruff line which is king of diamonds, ace of hearts discarding a
club, ruff a heart, ace of diamonds discarding a heart, ruff a diamond, ruff
a heart, ace king of clubs, ruff a club, ruff a heart with the king, ruff a
club with the jack, works.
I like ruffing a heart in dummy early because if the king drops you are in
good shape.
Charles Brenner
<cakemeis...@nospaam.comcast.net.delete> wrote:
> "kingfish" <sandybarnes...@verizon.net> wrote in message
But it must be hugely against the odds. The chance to score two club
ruffs in hand is under 50%, hence already the crossruff is
substantially inferior to Sandy's line. Never mind the possibility
that the hearts may be xx on the right.
Indeed, if you begin as you propose (i.e. club A,K, ruff) and see that
clubs are 3-3, what seems natural to me simply play spade A, K and try
to run the clubs. This works when trumps are 3-2 which is of course
better than the chance to score a club ruff with the trump J.
As a slight technical improvement, along the way ruff a heart just in
case RHO is 4333 as in the matrix above.
But now we are at a line that is easy to compare with Sandy's. Is it
better to cash two clubs before ruffing one, or only one as he does?
Cashing two clubs gains some of the time that the Q drops tripleton
(36%) and trumps are 1=4 (14%). Cashing one club usually gains when
RHO has Qxxx of clubs (16%) and trumps are 3-2 (68%). Some of 5% is
less than most of 11%.
> I like ruffing a heart in dummy early because if the king drops you are in
> good shape.
I don't. Yes, you are nearly home the 16% of the time that the hK is
doubleton. But the price you pay is the chance to establish the clubs
when someone has Qxxx (32%) and in addition trumps are 3-2 (net of
22%).
Charles