3NT with 30 HCP
David Stevenson
x
AKQJ
AQ98xx
xx
AKJ9xx
Txx
xx
AQ
North dealt: when South bid 3C [fourth suit] West doubled for the
lead. West leads a nondescript heart against 3NT. Teams.
--
David Stevenson Bridge RTFLB Cats Railways
Liverpool, England, UK Fax: +44 870 055 7697 ICQ: 20039682
<webj...@googlemail.com> bluejak on OKB
Bridgepage: http://blakjak.org/brg_menu.htm
t
wrote:
> x
> AKQJ
> AQ98xx
> xx
>
> AKJ9xx
> Txx
> xx
> AQ
>
> North dealt: when South bid 3C [fourth suit] West doubled for the
> lead. West leads a nondescript heart against 3NT. Teams.
>
> --
> David Stevenson Bridge RTFLB Cats Railways
> Liverpool, England, UK Fax: +44 870 055 7697 ICQ: 20039682
> Bridgepage:http://blakjak.org/brg_menu.htm
I must be missing something extra. I would just cash 2 rounds of
spades and if the q or t didn't fall I would lead yet another and
reserve the diamond finesse for my last chance
Co
"David Stevenson" <bri...@nospam.demon.co.uk> schreef in bericht
news:pw6RDsGe...@post.demon.co.uk...
so I guess , then you lead a small spade to the nine
to avoid East to get a chance to lead a club
and when West then lead a Diamond
you try the queen
and if that fail
you go down when the spades dont run
and then later at the bar
somebody tell you a better plan
that I cannot think of :)
Co Wiersma
Bud H
wrote:
> x
> AKQJ
> AQ98xx
> xx
>
> AKJ9xx
> Txx
> xx
> AQ
>
> North dealt: when South bid 3C [fourth suit] West doubled for the
> lead. West leads a nondescript heart against 3NT. Teams.
>
> --
> David Stevenson Bridge RTFLB Cats Railways
> Liverpool, England, UK Fax: +44 870 055 7697 ICQ: 20039682
> Bridgepage:http://blakjak.org/brg_menu.htm
I'm trying to decide which is more likely:
1. 4-1 diamonds offside (cash diamond ace, come to hand with spade,
and lead second diamond, covering LHO's card cheaply)
2. QTxx(x) held by one opponent AND the diamond king offside. (lead
three rounds of spades from the top, with diamond finesse in reserve)
OK, I'll bite. I'm playing the spades from the top, hoping for a 3-3
split, doubleton honor, or the diamond king onside if I need it.
Bud H
patri...@gmail.com
> "David Stevenson" <brid...@nospam.demon.co.uk> schreef in berichtnews:pw6RDsGe...@post.demon.co.uk...
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> > x
> > AKQJ
> > AQ98xx
> > xx
>
> > AKJ9xx
> > Txx
> > xx
> > AQ
>
> > North dealt: when South bid 3C [fourth suit] West doubled for the
> > lead. West leads a nondescript heart against 3NT. Teams.
>
> > --
> > David Stevenson Bridge RTFLB Cats Railways
> > Liverpool, England, UK Fax: +44 870 055 7697 ICQ: 20039682
> > Bridgepage:http://blakjak.org/brg_menu.htm
>
> so I guess , then you lead a small spade to the nine
> to avoid East to get a chance to lead a club
> and when West then lead a Diamond
> you try the queen
> and if that fail
> you go down when the spades dont run
> and then later at the bar
> somebody tell you a better plan
> that I cannot think of :)
>
>
> - Show quoted text -
Co, I love your answer. It reads like poetry.
So here is my attempt:
I'll go ahead and cash my four hearts, pitching a spade.
Then I'll take a finesse in spades, as spade length rates to be with
East. Stick in the jack or the nine? I'm not sure it makes a
difference. I'll play a spade to the 9. If it loses to the ten, then
West has to play a diamond. I cover gently (if West leads low I play
the 8 and if J or T I play the Q). If this loses, we get a club to Q
and K, then West clears the clubs. Now I cash AK of spades, pitching
two diamonds, and pray that the Q falls. If West shows out on the
third spade (seems the most likely possibility), then I'm left needing
two more tricks in this position:
-
-
AQ9
-
Jx
-
x
-
Now I use my famous table presence to figure out East's remaining
shape, starting by figuring out how many diamonds East started with.
If he started with three or more and hasn't pitched any yet, then I
throw him in with a spade. If he started with three or more and only
has one left now, then of course I run the diamonds. If he started
with fewer than three diamonds (the diamond card West leads and East's
club plays will help me here, as well as the count I got in hearts and
spades), then I take the diamond finesse.
If instead West had the spade stopper, then we're in deep trouble.
Pray that the diamond finesse works, but I would not bet on it. (I
don't think East will have retained three diamonds to the K, leaving
him vulnerable to a throw-in, unless he is brain-dead.)
How's that?
The other scenarios, and odds calculations, I leave to Pavlicek. :)
rhm
The play, which looks right to me, can be improved by cashing hearts
first until West has no more hearts.
(Should West turn up with 5 hearts you stop after the second round and
might decide not to play spades from the top)
Then you play spades from the top.
If it is West who has the spade length he will have to switch to
diamonds.
If West switches to the DJ you can duck the first diamond and win
the second one with he ace.
This wins when West has the singleton DJ, because he will be
endplayed or if he switches to the DJ from JTx.
It also wins if West had a singleton heart and JT doubleton in
diamonds, because you remain with a heart entry to dummy.
It looses nothing when West has the DK, because you can throw him in
with another diamond.
Rainer Herrmann
David Flower
wrote:
> � x
> � AKQJ
> � AQ98xx
> � xx
>
> � AKJ9xx
> � Txx
> � xx
> � AQ
>
> � North dealt: when South bid 3C [fourth suit] West doubled for the
> lead. �West leads a nondescript heart against 3NT. �Teams.
>
> --
> David Stevenson � � � � � Bridge � � �RTFLB � � � Cats � � � Railways
> Liverpool, England, UK � �Fax: +44 870 055 7697 � � � �ICQ: �20039682
> � � � � � � � � � � � � � Bridgepage:http://blakjak.org/brg_menu.htm
Well, the Official Encyclopaedia of Bridge says finesse the SJ is 1%
better than S9 (for 5 tricks), so:
Finesse SJ. If it wins, I am playing for overtricks
Assume it loses, and a diamond comes back - finesse D8,
Assume it loses to D10 or DJ, and a club comes back - finesse CQ
Assume it loses, and a club comes back. Cash SAK. Assume S10 does not
drop.erall
Finesse DQ
This makes if spades behave (71%)
West has DJ10 (24%, overall 78%)
East has CK (0%, overall 78%)
West has DK (50%, overall 79%)
Cashing the top hearts may reduce the number of undertricks if the
distribution is foul, at the expense of an overtrick if it is not; but
does not improve the chance of making.
Dave Flower
Eric Leong
wrote:
> x
> AKQJ
> AQ98xx
> xx
>
> AKJ9xx
> Txx
> xx
> AQ
>
> North dealt: when South bid 3C [fourth suit] West doubled for the
> lead. West leads a nondescript heart against 3NT. Teams.
My basic line would be to cash hearts from the top discarding a small
spade in my hand.
Next, I would cash the diamond ace on dummy and then hook the spade
jack in my hand.
If the finesse loses, I still make 3NT if LHO has the diamond king or
no more diamonds.
I make if:
1. RHO has the stiff diamond king.
2. Spade Queen on side.
3. LHO has the diamond king.
4. LHO has no more diamonds
5. RHO has the club king (unlikely on the bidding)
6. Spades were 3-3 or the spade ten drops.
I probably go down if LHO has the stiff queen of spades or doubleton
queen of spades and 2-3 diamonds without the king. On the other hand,
I gain if LHO has one or two small spades and 2-3 diamonds without the
king. If LHO had a stiff spade it is four times more likely that it is
a small spade then the spade queen. If LHO had a doubleton spade it is
1.5 times more likely that LHO has S xx then S Qx. Also, as a
dividend I gain when RHO has the stiff diamond king or LHO has a stiff
diamond.
In addition, I get an extra option to think about an end play LHO in
spades if say LHO turns out to be very short in hearts with 2-3
diamonds.
Eric Leong
>
> --
> David Stevenson Bridge RTFLB Cats Railways
> Liverpool, England, UK Fax: +44 870 055 7697 ICQ: 20039682
> <webjak...@googlemail.com> bluejak on OKB
> Bridgepage:http://blakjak.org/brg_menu.htm
David Flower
>
> - Show quoted text -
Yes, that line is slightly better than mine. However, I think that
there is a case for cashing the DA before running the hearts. If LHO
holds DJ10, then one drops; now finesse SJ, and if it loses, and the
DJ is returned, you establish the diamonds suit, whilst there is
stillo a heart entry to dummy.
Dave Flower
patri...@gmail.com
>
> - Show quoted text -
I disagree with a couple of things here.
First of all, the Encyclopedia's percentages are when you have AKJ987.
The reason finessing the jack is 1% better in that case is that it
gets five tricks when West has singleton ten, while finessing the nine
doesn't get five tricks against any West singleton. However, the
actual spade holding, missing the eight, will preclude you from taking
five tricks on any 5-1 split, so I don't think there's really any
difference between finessing the jack and finessing the nine. (Playing
the AK is much worse here IMO, because East is likely to have spade
length.)
Also, I think cashing the top hearts does help, by tightening the
position for a possible strip squeeze on East (as in my above line).
--Patrick.
David Flower
>
> - Show quoted text -
Yes, I think that you are right. In fact I had regarded winning 5/6 as
synonymous with winning 3/first four. Wrong!
Still, finessing the queen increases the dchance of overtricks, so is
probably the correct play.
Dave Flower
David Stevenson
>
> x
> AKQJ
> AQ98xx
> xx
>
> AKJ9xx
> Txx
> xx
> AQ
>
> North dealt: when South bid 3C [fourth suit] West doubled for the
>lead. West leads a nondescript heart against 3NT. Teams.
A very interesting set of replies. Before I tell you what I did, I
would love to hear from Richard Pavlicek and Kieran Dyke!
Tim DeLaney
wrote:
> x
> AKQJ
> AQ98xx
> xx
>
> AKJ9xx
> Txx
> xx
> AQ
>
> North dealt: when South bid 3C [fourth suit] West doubled for the
> lead. West leads a nondescript heart against 3NT. Teams.
>
> --
> David Stevenson Bridge RTFLB Cats Railways
> Liverpool, England, UK Fax: +44 870 055 7697 ICQ: 20039682
> Bridgepage:http://blakjak.org/brg_menu.htm
I think Eric's line is best: Cash the hearts and the DA, then finesse
the SQ. When West wins the SQ he is compelled to lead diamonds.
Finessing the SJ wins whenever West has xx, x, or void (11 cases) and
loses to Qx or Q (5 cases). Clearly, the finesse is better.
A side benefit: When the contract proves to be unmakeable, you are
down only one.
Tim
Eric Leong
Actually, it is worse because if you lose to S Qx or Q, LHO has to
also started with 2-3 diamonds without the diamond king.
Eric Leong
>
> A side benefit: When the contract proves to be unmakeable, you are
> down only one.
>
> Tim- Hide quoted text -
Tim DeLaney
If you think the spade finesse is worse, why did you advocate it? And
why does it follow that LHO must have 2 or 3 low diamonds when he has Q
(x) in spades? Your post is so perplexing that I think we have a
major misunderstanding.
Tim
Eric Leong
On the contrary, I am saying that there is even more compelling case
for finessing for the spade queen.
If you play spades from the top you pay off to LHO having S xx (6
cases) and S x (4 cases).
If you hook the spade jack you pay off to LHO having S Qx (4 cases)
and S Q (1 case). In addition, LHO has to have a doubleton or a
singleton diamond remaining without the king. So you don't pay off to
the full weight of the S Qx or S Q cases.
Eric Leong
Charles Brenner
Tim also enumerated the void possibility, but ignoring it is
reasonable (compensates for the fact that the each singleton is less
probable than each doubleton).
> If you hook the spade jack you pay off to LHO having S Qx (4 cases)
> and S Q (1 case).
Tim said the same thing as you so far.
> In addition, LHO has to have a doubleton or a
> singleton diamond remaining without the king.
> So you don't pay off to
> the full weight of the S Qx or S Q cases.
That's not "in addition" because it applies equally to both spade
plays. Among cases whether the spade play matters, the finesse only
superior by the about 2:1 obtained from counting the spade
distributions.
If it were it addition it would make the finesse "even better" -- your
choice of the word "worse" therefore may have added to the confusion.
Charles
David Stevenson
>David Stevenson wrote
>>
>> x
>> AKQJ
>> AQ98xx
>> xx
>>
>> AKJ9xx
>> Txx
>> xx
>> AQ
>>
>> North dealt: when South bid 3C [fourth suit] West doubled for the
>>lead. West leads a nondescript heart against 3NT. Teams.
>
> A very interesting set of replies. Before I tell you what I did, I
>would love to hear from Richard Pavlicek and Kieran Dyke!
I would have liked to hear from Richard and Kieran, but it has been up
some time and I expect people are bored.
I finessed the SJ immediately. I did not play off the hearts because
that would mean an automatic diamond return. I got a heart return and
now played a small diamond from dummy.
East played the DJ, club, finesse loses [no surprise there] and West
played a club back. SA, SK, damn, West did have Qx, he discards a
heart, diamond, ten from West and .......
???
Richard Pavlicek
> x
> AKQJ
> AQ98xx
> xx
>
> AKJ9xx
> Txx
> xx
> AQ
>
> North dealt: when South bid 3C [fourth suit] West doubled for the
> lead. West leads a nondescript heart against 3NT. Teams.
OK, I'd cash the DA (best first as LHO might not unblock Jx),
finish hearts (pitch diamond), and finesse the SJ.
--
Richard Pavlicek
Web site: http://www.rpbridge.net
Charles Brenner
wrote:
> David Stevenson wrote
>
>
>
> >David Stevenson wrote
>
> >> x
> >> AKQJ
> >> AQ98xx
> >> xx
>
> >> AKJ9xx
> >> Txx
> >> xx
> >> AQ
>
> >> North dealt: when South bid 3C [fourth suit] West doubled for the
> >>lead. West leads a nondescript heart against 3NT. Teams.
>
> > A very interesting set of replies. Before I tell you what I did, I
> >would love to hear from Richard Pavlicek and Kieran Dyke!
>
> I would have liked to hear from Richard and Kieran, but it has been up
> some time and I expect people are bored.
>
> I finessed the SJ immediately. I did not play off the hearts because
> that would mean an automatic diamond return. I got a heart return and
> now played a small diamond from dummy.
>
> East played the DJ, club, finesse loses [no surprise there] and West
> played a club back. SA, SK, damn, West did have Qx, he discards a
> heart, diamond, ten from West and .......
>
> ???
??? indeed. West might have been Qx,xx,10x,KJxxxxx or Qx, ..., K10x
(x), K... in which case the finesse brings home 9 or 11 tricks. Or
West might be being clever with 10xx originally of diamonds in which
case finessing means no more tricks, down 4. Accepting your line of
play (though cashing the hearts at least at the second opportunity
would have added information and tricks), what's the point of giving a
problem without giving the information that you did have -- the club
plays, the discard, the heart spots?
The problem as put therefore seems ridiculous. Consequently I'll guess
that the point is the lighthearted one of realizing that the diamond J
might have been singleton, West having had K10xx of diamonds. So
hopefully in the intended spirit I say finesse.
Charles
Eric Leong
> David Stevenson wrote:
> > x
> > AKQJ
> > AQ98xx
> > xx
>
> > AKJ9xx
> > Txx
> > xx
> > AQ
>
> > North dealt: when South bid 3C [fourth suit] West doubled for the
> > lead. West leads a nondescript heart against 3NT. Teams.
>
> OK, I'd cash the DA (best first as LHO might not unblock Jx),
> finish hearts (pitch diamond), and finesse the SJ.
Even if LHO did not unblock from D Jx, one would think only the blind
or the dumb would not know to overtake the diamond jack and shoot back
a club.
Eric Leong
Richard Pavlicek
>On Mar 15, 5:44 pm, "Richard Pavlicek" <rich...@rpbridge.net> wrote:
>> David Stevenson wrote:
>>> x
>>> AKQJ
>>> AQ98xx
>>> xx
>>
>>> AKJ9xx
>>> Txx
>>> xx
>>> AQ
>>
>>> North dealt: when South bid 3C [fourth suit] West doubled for the
>>> lead. West leads a nondescript heart against 3NT. Teams.
>>
>> OK, I'd cash the DA (best first as LHO might not unblock Jx),
>> finish hearts (pitch diamond), and finesse the SJ.
>
> Even if LHO did not unblock from D Jx, one would think only the blind
> or the dumb would not know to overtake the diamond jack and shoot back
> a club.
Blind and dumb? Does that mean you're East?
Maybe East has Txxx xxxx KTx xx, so overtaking will give
me a ninth trick at the end. The main point is that West
failing to unblock can only increase my chances.
David Stevenson
>The problem as put therefore seems ridiculous.
No-one is forcing you to reply.
David Flower
wrote:
> Charles Brenner wrote
>
> >The problem as put therefore seems ridiculous.
>
> � �No-one is forcing you to reply.
>
> --
> David Stevenson � � � � � Bridge � � �RTFLB � � � Cats � � � Railways
> Liverpool, England, UK � �Fax: +44 870 055 7697 � � � �ICQ: �20039682
> � � � � � � � � � � � � � �Bridgepage:http://blakjak.org/brg_menu.htm
I am coming round to the view that the best play might be to win the
heart, cash DA, and finesse SJ. If it loses, and a heart is returned,
it costs nothing to lead a small diamond from dummy
Dave Flower
Eric Leong
Not cashing the top hearts after cashing the diamond ace will cost you
if RHO has: S 10xxx H xx D KJ10x C xxx.
Also, you pay off if RHO has something like: S 10xxx H xxxx D Jx
C xxx or S 10xxxx H xxx D Jx C xxx. There are more cases but this
is enough.
Eric Leong
S Qx H xxx D K10x C KJ10x