5/2 fit vs 4/3 fit

[peter cheung]

Simulations requested by email.
>8 million random deals with double dummy analysis.
4/3 spade fit and 5/2 heart fit.
The 5/2 fit has a very slight advantage of about 0.035 tricks with 20 to 30
combined hcp.
The advantage is slightly higher for less combined hcp and less for more
hcp.

1. 20 to 30 hcp in the partnership:-
** spade average trick is 8.547
0 = 0.00% 0.00% 1 = 0.01% 0.01% 2 = 0.01% 0.02% 3 =
0.03% 0.04% 4 = 0.22% 0.27%
5 = 1.17% 1.44% 6 = 5.99% 7.43% 7 = 17.25% 24.68% 8 =
25.74% 50.42% 9 = 23.53% 73.95%
10 = 15.87% 89.82% 11 = 7.68% 97.50% 12 = 2.25% 99.75% 13 =
0.25% 100.00%
** heart average trick is 8.582
0 = 0.00% 0.00% 1 = 0.01% 0.01% 2 = 0.00% 0.01% 3 =
0.00% 0.01% 4 = 0.07% 0.07%
5 = 0.97% 1.05% 6 = 5.81% 6.86% 7 = 17.25% 24.11% 8 =
25.89% 50.00% 9 = 23.59% 73.58%
10 = 15.60% 89.19% 11 = 8.04% 97.22% 12 = 2.46% 99.69% 13 =
0.31% 100.00%

2. 20 to 22 hcp:-
** spade average trick is 7.527
0 = 0.00% 0.00% 1 = 0.01% 0.01% 2 = 0.03% 0.04% 3 =
0.08% 0.12% 4 = 0.42% 0.54%
5 = 2.40% 2.93% 6 = 12.75% 15.68% 7 = 32.53% 48.21% 8 =
34.50% 82.71% 9 = 14.62% 97.33%
10 = 2.42% 99.74% 11 = 0.23% 99.97% 12 = 0.02% 100.00% 13 =
0.00% 100.00%
** heart average trick is 7.584
0 = 0.00% 0.00% 1 = 0.00% 0.00% 2 = 0.00% 0.00% 3 =
0.02% 0.02% 4 = 0.16% 0.18%
5 = 1.99% 2.17% 6 = 11.95% 14.12% 7 = 32.46% 46.59% 8 =
35.26% 81.84% 9 = 15.18% 97.03%
10 = 2.61% 99.63% 11 = 0.33% 99.97% 12 = 0.03% 100.00% 13 =
0.00% 100.00%

3. 28 to 30 hcp:-
** spade average trick is 10.703
0 = 0.00% 0.00% 1 = 0.00% 0.00% 2 = 0.00% 0.00% 3 =
0.00% 0.00% 4 = 0.00% 0.00%
5 = 0.02% 0.02% 6 = 0.00% 0.02% 7 = 0.12% 0.13% 8 =
1.29% 1.42% 9 = 8.91% 10.33%
10 = 30.02% 40.35% 11 = 39.60% 79.96% 12 = 17.54% 97.49% 13 =
2.51% 100.00%
** heart average trick is 10.724
0 = 0.00% 0.00% 1 = 0.00% 0.00% 2 = 0.00% 0.00% 3 =
0.00% 0.00% 4 = 0.00% 0.00%
5 = 0.02% 0.02% 6 = 0.02% 0.03% 7 = 0.25% 0.28% 8 =
1.45% 1.74% 9 = 9.06% 10.80%
10 = 28.03% 38.83% 11 = 39.70% 78.54% 12 = 18.79% 97.33% 13 =
2.67% 100.00%

[Daniel Auby]

Very interesting Peter! I am amazed it's not a larger difference. I
have friends that probably would wage some money that the difference
in no of tricks is at least 10%. It appears it is not even 1%! I'll
just might make some money with this info :-)

[Paul Hightower]

The results are so close that other considerations should clearly
dominate: Which suit is stronger? Do we want to give partner another
chance to bid? Which suit has a better chance of partner having extra
length? Is there a side ruffing value available? And for cases other
than specifically both majors, major vs. minor would be significant.

Suppose the auction begins 1S-1NT-2H, and you hold as responder xx xxx
A9xx K10xx . Practically everything else is a wash, so I wonder which
is more likely: 6 spades or 5 hearts?

"peter cheung" <ptch...@pacbell.net> wrote in message news:<u3899.5002$aL2.34...@newssvr13.news.prodigy.com>...