5a 5a cube action XGID=--CaDAB---B-d--Cba-db--a--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10

[Walt]

XGID=--CaDAB---B-d--Cba-db--a--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10

X:You O:O
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 104 O: 136 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

[badgolferman]

ND/Take

[Bradley K. Sherman]

Walt <walt_...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O O |
> | X O | | O O |
> | X | | O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | O | | X |
> | O | | X X |
> | O X | | X X X |
> | O X | | X X X O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

>Pip count X: 104 O: 136, Cube:1, X on roll, cube action

I'm doubling on the race and dropping on having
no anchor, two bad blots and if X gets just a
little lucky O gets gammoned.

Double/drop

--bks

[Walt]

On 10/31/2012 8:44 AM, Walt wrote:

A good way to win short matches (or late scores in long matches) is to
get some gammon chances and push the cube. Here, X is not that strong
to win, but with 12 checkers in the zone against a single blot the
gammon chances are high. O's other two blots support a blitz, so turn
the cube now and go for four.

Big blunder to hold here as I did otb. The take is fairly close.

XGID=--CaDAB---B-d--Cba-db--a--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2

Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 104 O: 136 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 68.98% (G:26.84% B:0.30%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.02% (G:6.89% B:0.30%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68.74% (G:28.38% B:0.37%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.26% (G:6.92% B:0.37%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.562, Double=+1.255

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.811 (-0.189)
Double/Take: +1.017 (+0.017)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ą 0.010 (+0.802..+0.821)
Confidence Double: ą 0.016 (+1.001..+1.032)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 98.3%

Duration: 19 minutes 34 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2



--
//Walt

[peps...@gmail.com]

On Friday, November 2, 2012 3:38:33 PM UTC, Walt wrote:
...

> Big blunder to hold here as I did otb. The take is fairly close.

>

> Double/Take: +1.017 (+0.017)
>
> Double/Pass: +1.000
>
>
>
> Best Cube action: Double / Pass
>
>

Don't you mean to say that the pass is close?

Paul Epstein

[Walt]

This is what I get for not paying attention. 4-ply Analysis says this
is a take, and I didn't look at the rollout results close enough to
notice that the rollout disagrees.

Anyway, the take *decision* is close and the correct answer is to pass.

Analyzed in 4-ply
Player Winning Chances: 69.03% (G:25.81% B:0.26%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.97% (G:6.40% B:0.21%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.559, Double=+1.218

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.802 (-0.158)
Double/Take: +0.959
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.041)

Best Cube action: Double / Take