I see the hit, but...

Tim Chow

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Mar 6, 2012, 7:59:32 PM3/6/12

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XGID=-AB--bDCB-B------abcbbbaA-:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:7:10
X:Timothy Chow O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:0 O:0 7 pt(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O O X |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X | +---+
| X X X | | X O X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pipcount X: 110 O: 106 X-O: 0-0/7
Cube : 2, X own cube
X to play 21

---
Tim Chow

Bradley K. Sherman

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Mar 6, 2012, 8:07:13 PM3/6/12

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Tim Chow <tchow...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O O | | O O O O O X |
> | O | | O O O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | X | | X | +---+
> | X X X | | X O X | | 2 |
> | X X X | | X O X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

>Pipcount X: 110 O: 106, X-O: 0-0/7, X to play 21

I would play 24/23*,10/8 OTB, but I've been getting
gammoned a lot by gnubg with that kind of play. So
can a quiet play like 6/3 be correct? I don't know.

--bks

badgolferman

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Mar 6, 2012, 8:17:44 PM3/6/12

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I think you have to 24/23* or else you're dead meat for sure. 10/8
would be my other choice. If O enters on your 1-point at least you
have a good chance of setting up an anchor on the 23-point.

Paul

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Mar 7, 2012, 5:57:48 AM3/7/12

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The winning plan is to escape the checker on the 24 and let O crunch
against X's broken 4 prime.
The way to execute this play is 24-23 6-4.

It's easily the most likely way to win so don't be too scared of X's
blots.
The hit is mandatory but 10-8 is certainly worth considering. It's
slightly safer but it makes it much harder for O to crunch so I don't
like it.

Paul Epstein

Walt

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Mar 7, 2012, 4:28:18 PM3/7/12

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A tough one. OTB, I'd hit on the 23 - not so much because I want to
hit, it's that I need to leap the prime and stepping up to the 23 is the
only hope to do that. For the deuce, 10/8 seems as good as anything.

QF makes me think this must be wrong, but I'll stick with 24/23* 10/8.

//Walt

Tim Chow

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Mar 9, 2012, 8:16:28 PM3/9/12

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I looked at 24/23* 6/4 here but like most people here I played 24/23*
10/8. 6/4 might look crazy at first glance but if you count it out
you'll see that it's not that many more shots, and it preserves the
important 10pt as an asset. Also if O misses, X will be pleased to
have slotted the 4pt. According to the rollout, anything besides
24/23* 6/4 is a whopper.

=======
Rollout
=======

1. Rollout: 24/23* 6/4 eq:-0.697
Player : 26.90% (G:6.36% B:0.35%)
Opponent: 73.10% (G:36.43% B:1.45%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.709<E<-0.685)

2. Rollout: 24/23* 10/8 eq:-0.806 (-0.108)
Player : 22.52% (G:5.31% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 77.48% (G:35.12% B:1.48%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.817<E<-0.795)

3. Rollout: 24/23* 8/6 eq:-0.837 (-0.140)
Player : 22.26% (G:5.50% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 77.74% (G:37.73% B:1.56%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.848<E<-0.826)

4. Rollout: 6/4 2/1 eq:-0.842 (-0.144)
Player : 14.80% (G:2.48% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 85.20% (G:19.97% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.852<E<-0.832)

1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

---
Tim Chow