Trice remarks that it's not too bad a rule of thumb to double a well-timed
backgame when you have three points left in front of the more advanced
anchor. Below are some examples from his book. These are all money-game
positions with X on roll, Snowie rollout results.
First I'll give examples of the 1-2, 1-3, and 2-3 backgames, just to give
us some feeling for what to expect. Then I'll give the 1-5 and 2-5 backgames.
The punchline is that for superficially similar-looking positions, the 1-5
backgame is a big pass, whereas the 2-5 backgame is no double.
================================================================
GNU Backgammon Position ID: 2G4DADb8vgcAAA
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+ O: gnubg
| O O O | | O O | 0 points
| O O O | | O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| X |BAR| |v (Cube: 1)
| X X | | |
| X X X | | |
| X X X | | |
| O O X X X | | | On roll
| O O X X X | | | 0 points
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+ X: tchow
Double, take: 0.745
No double: 0.733 (-0.012)
Wbg Wg W L Lg Lbg
8.7 33.5 55.6 44.4 0.0 0.0
================================================================
GNU Backgammon Position ID: 2G4DADPmfQ8AAA
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+ O: gnubg
| O O O | | O O | 0 points
| O O O | | O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |v (Cube: 1)
| X | | |
| X X X | | |
| X X X | | |
| O X O X X X | | | On roll
| O X O X X X | | | 0 points
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+ X: tchow
Double, take: 0.885
No double: 0.876 (-0.010)
Wbg Wg W L Lg Lbg
6.1 34.5 59.3 40.7 0.2 0.0
================================================================
GNU Backgammon Position ID: 2G4DABuP9w4AAA
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+ O: gnubg
| O O O | | O O | 0 points
| O O O | | O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |v (Cube: 1)
| | | |
| X X X | | |
| X X X X | | |
| X O O X X X | | | On roll
| X O O X X X | | | 0 points
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+ X: tchow
Double, take: 0.810
No double: 0.788 (-0.022)
Wbg Wg W L Lg Lbg
2.9 39.2 57.1 42.9 0.2 0.0
================================================================
GNU Backgammon Position ID: 2G4DwDC2eTcAAA
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+ O: gnubg
| O O O | | O O | 0 points
| O O O | | O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |v (Cube: 1)
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| O X X X O X | | X X | On roll
| O X X X O X | | X X | 0 points
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+ X: tchow
Double, pass: 1.000
No double: 0.960 (-0.040)
Double, take: 1.388 (+0.388)
Wbg Wg W L Lg Lbg
1.9 26.2 75.6 24.4 0.9 0.0
================================================================
GNU Backgammon Position ID: 2G4DwBizeTcAAA
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+ O: gnubg
| O O O | | O O | 0 points
| O O O | | O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |v (Cube: 1)
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| X O X X O X | | X X | On roll
| X O X X O X | | X X | 0 points
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+ X: tchow
No double: 0.631
Double, take: 0.571 (-0.059)
Wbg Wg W L Lg Lbg
0.4 23.7 61.4 38.6 4.4 0.1
================================================================
--
Tim Chow tchow-at-alum-dot-mit-dot-edu
The range of our projectiles---even ... the artillery---however great, will
never exceed four of those miles of which as many thousand separate us from
the center of the earth. ---Galileo, Dialogues Concerning Two New Sciences
The thing is, I've often doubled already by the time I've reached this
position.. Backgames come about when the other player is really really
behind.
Interesting data.
//Walt
This is true, but the point of the positions is to demonstrate how much
equity the backgame player has even without cube possession.
Interesting and a half.
Backgammon Boot Camp is really an essential book.
>//Walt
>
David C. Ullrich
"Understanding Godel isn't about following his formal proof.
That would make a mockery of everything Godel was up to."
(John Jones, "My talk about Godel to the post-grads."
in sci.logic.)