DMP 41 to play (crelm)

[Walt]

XGID=-ABaB-DAB------b-acbbbbBA-:1:-1:1:41:3:4:0:5:10

X:You O:O
Score is X:3 O:4 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O O O X X | +---+
| O O | | O O O O X | | 2 |
| O | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X |
| X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 107 X-O: 3-4/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

[Bradley K. Sherman]

Walt <walt_...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>Score is X:3 O:4 5 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O O O | | O O O O X X | +---+
> | O O | | O O O O X | | 2 |
> | O | | | +---+
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | X | | X X X |
> | X X | | X X O X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

>Pip count X: 130 O: 107, X to play 41

7/3*,6/5, Pray.

--bks

[badgolferman]

7/3*/2

[Tim Chow]

7/3* seems morally forced for the 4. After that I'm not sure, but
I'll try 24/23. Seems like our best chance is to try to spring a back
checker so that we don't crunch.

---
Tim Chow

[Walt]

Gammons don't matter and by basically forcing a hit X might be able to
get a 2-1 backgame going. It's desperation time.

I stared at 7/3* 6/5 for a while, but couldn't convince myself that it
was right and played the lame 7/3*/2.

Stepping up to the edge with 24/23 7/3* is also viable.

XGID=-ABaB-DAB------b-acbbbbBA-:1:-1:1:41:3:4:0:5:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2

Score is X:3 O:4 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O O O X X | +---+
| O O | | O O O O X | | 2 |
| O | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X |
| X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 107 X-O: 3-4/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

1. Rollout� 7/3* 6/5 eq:-0.663
Player: 16.87% (G:3.01% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 83.13% (G:44.34% B:12.28%)
Confidence: �0.005 (-0.667..-0.658) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 43 seconds

2. Rollout� 24/23 7/3* eq:-0.673 (-0.010)
Player: 16.35% (G:3.64% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 83.65% (G:36.50% B:6.47%)
Confidence: �0.004 (-0.677..-0.669) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 41 seconds

3. Rollout� 8/3* eq:-0.679 (-0.017)
Player: 16.03% (G:3.38% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 83.97% (G:41.81% B:10.47%)
Confidence: �0.005 (-0.684..-0.674) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 45 seconds

4. Rollout� 7/3* 2/1 eq:-0.695 (-0.032)
Player: 15.26% (G:3.21% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 84.74% (G:38.26% B:8.55%)
Confidence: �0.005 (-0.700..-0.690) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 23 seconds

5. Rollout� 7/3* 4/3 eq:-0.696 (-0.033)
Player: 15.20% (G:2.82% B:0.02%)
Opponent: 84.80% (G:39.90% B:8.52%)
Confidence: �0.004 (-0.700..-0.692) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 03 seconds

6. Rollout� 7/3* 3/2 eq:-0.742 (-0.079)
Player: 12.92% (G:1.87% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 87.08% (G:35.34% B:5.76%)
Confidence: �0.004 (-0.745..-0.738) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 09 seconds


� 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2


--
//Walt

[Tim Chow]

On Nov 12, 2:31 pm, Walt <walt_ask...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> Gammons don't matter and by basically forcing a hit X might be able to
> get a 2-1 backgame going.   It's desperation time.

While it's conceivable that 7/3* 6/5 could lead to a backgame that X
wins, I suspect that that's not Plan A. I think Plan A is to hope
that O dances, and then build a board quickly while escaping the back
checkers.

One quick thing to look at is the temperature map after 7/3* 6/5. I
strongly suspect that all of O's entering rolls give O higher equity
than O's dancing rolls.

---
Tim Chow