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Message from discussion why didn't it double?
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Walt  
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 More options Apr 1 2012, 9:58 pm
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
From: Walt <walt_ask...@yahoo.com>
Date: Sun, 01 Apr 2012 21:58:53 -0400
Local: Sun, Apr 1 2012 9:58 pm
Subject: Re: why didn't it double?
On 3/31/2012 5:09 PM, badgolferman wrote:

> I was ahead 6 games to 1 and lost the Jacoby game to make it 6 games to
> 2.  I started off with a 5-2 roll.  GNUBG did not double but started
> off with a double 5 to kill my two blots in it's home board.  Why
> didn't GNUBG double before it rolled?  Did it know what was coming?

>  GNU Backgammon  Position ID: M07wATDg8+ABYA
>                  Match ID   : cAngACAAMAAE
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+     O: gnubg
>  | X           O    |   | O        O     O |     2 points
>  | X                |   | O        O     O |    
>  | X                |   | O                |    
>  | X                |   |                  |    
>  |                  |   |                  |    
> v|                  |BAR|                  |     7 point match (Cube: 1)
>  | O                |   | X                |    
>  | O           X    |   | X                |    
>  | O           X    |   | X                |    
>  | O           X    | X | X              O |     On roll
>  | O           X    | X | X              O |     6 points
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+     X: Home

No, gnubg didn't know what was coming - gnu doesn't know what rolls are
coming any more than you do.

After the 5-2 opening, it saw that you were ~51% to win and evaluated
the cube decision as "optional double".  Doubling wasn't *wrong*, but it
didn't increase gnu's equity either, so it held.

It also understood that even if it rolled it's best number (and 55 is
probably as good as it gets) and you danced, you would still have a
take. Thus with no advantage in cubing, and no market losers it's
correct to hold. Yes, that's right, you have a TAKE here, even if you
dance.

The main issue is that your takepoint at odd-away post-Crawford is
really really small - you can take just about anything here.  There's
something called 'the trick', which is waiting to double at  odd-away
post-Crawford in hopes that the opponent will incorrectly drop.  That's
what's going on here.

See http://www.bkgm.com/faq/Matches.html#what_is_the_trick_

Bottom line at post crawford

1) if your opponent is an even number away, drop anything less than 50%
2) if your opponent is an odd number away, take damn near anything
unless the gammon rate is large.  (at 1-away 6 away, gammmons aren't
much of a factor)

Look at what happens if you dance:

 GNU Backgammon  Position ID: 4PPgAWAzTvABMA
                 Match ID   : MAHgACAAMAAE
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+     O: O
 | X           O    |   | O        O     O |     2 points
 | X                |   | O        O     O |     On roll
 | X                |   | O                |
 | X                |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
^|                  |BAR|                  |     7 point match (Cube: 1)
 | O                |   | X                |
 | O           X    |   | X                |
 | O           X    |   | X                |
 | O           X    | X | X              O |
 | O           X    | X | X              O |     6 points
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+     X: X

Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity  +0.369 (Money:  +0.651)
  0.666 0.390 0.011 - 0.334 0.077 0.004
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take         +0.884
2. Double, pass         +1.000  ( +0.116)
3. No double            +0.830  ( -0.055)
Proper cube action: Double, take

In this position, gnu has rolled its best number and you rolled your
worst, but the cube action is still D/T.  Since gnu has no market losers
in your original position, it has no reason to double.

Post-Crawford odd-away, it's going to wait until it has market losers to
double and since your takepoint is so low that may be awhile.

//Walt


 
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