5a 5a cube action (splunge)

[Walt]

XGID=-BAC-BCa-B---B---a---cbbf-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10

X:You O:O
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X X X |
| X O | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 85 O: 54 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

[Bradley K. Sherman]

Walt <walt_...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O O O |
> | X | | O O O O |
> | | | O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | 6 |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X X |
> | X | | X X X X |
> | X O | | X X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

>Pip count X: 85 O: 54, Cube:1, X on roll, cube action

Well, it must be a take, so is it a double?
X is a favorite to hit, and if X hits a
favorite to win, but not many gammons and
plenty of jokers. I'll call it
No double/take

--bks

[badgolferman]

ND/Take

[Stick]

These types of problems are easy if you get into the habit of breaking
them down. Here is what I do:

[22 11 65 64 61 52 42 21]= 14 hit + cover numbers and we win 10.5/14
of those games

[66 33 63 62 51 32] = hit + no cover numbers and we win 6/10 of those
games

[55 44 54 53 43 41 31] = games where we don't hit and we win 2.5/12
games

overall 10.5 + 2.5 + 6 = 19 games or ~52.5%

If we're 52.5% to win there is no way no how this is a double.

Stick

[Grunty]

On Nov 10, 2:16 pm, Stick <checkmug...@yahoo.com> wrote:

> [55 44 54 53 43 41 31] = games where we don't hit and we win 2.5/12
> games
>
> overall 10.5 + 2.5 + 6 = 19 games or ~52.5%

Actually we're an underdog, cause non-hit rolls should count as
(nearly?) zero wins -- O will redouble us out.
So, 10.5 + 0 + 6 = 16.5 games or ~46%
Or did I miss something?

[Stick]

Yes, I will not be doubled out on most non hitting rolls.

Stick

[peps...@gmail.com]

A good reference position for the D/T after X misses is in Trice's boot camp. If X misses, X still has some contact chances and some racing chances. A take is derived from these two sources of equity combined.

O's crunched position means that the pip-count overrepresents O's lead. About 12 points need to be subtracted from X's pipcount -- 8 for O's crunch and 4 for X being on-roll. So, if X misses, X can win by winning a race with a deficit of 54 to 73 or by hitting O's blot.

Paul Epstein

[Walt]

O's board has started to crunch, X has a double shot at the blot, and
hit/dance is (probably) a market loser. But it's still not time to
double. Stick probably explained it best, so I won't duplicate that here.

I cubed this one, thinking of the market-losers. Big mistake.

XGID=-BAC-BCa-B---B---a---cbbf-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2

Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X X X |
| X O | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 85 O: 54 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 51.77% (G:2.02% B:0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 48.23% (G:2.06% B:0.01%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 52.01% (G:1.98% B:0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 47.99% (G:2.05% B:0.01%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.035, Double=+0.076

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.060
Double/Take: -0.337 (-0.398)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.940)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 22.9%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ą 0.005 (+0.056..+0.065)
Confidence Double: ą 0.007 (-0.344..-0.331)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 1 minute 50 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2


--
//Walt

[Bradley K. Sherman]

Very impressive estimate. I did mentally scan through all the rolls,
but I didn't do any arithmetic.

--bks