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11 to play from the bar 5a 5a cube at 2

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Walt

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Nov 2, 2012, 8:15:11 PM11/2/12
to
XGID=------EbCB--aCaa--bbbbbA-A:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:5:10

X:You O:O
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O O X |
| X O | | O O O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X | +---+
| X X O | | X | | 2 |
| O X X O | | X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 159 O: 120 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 11


Bradley K. Sherman

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Nov 2, 2012, 8:30:41 PM11/2/12
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Walt <walt_...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O O | | O O O O X |
> | X O | | O O O O |
> | X | | |
> | | | |
> | | X | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | X | | X | +---+
> | X X O | | X | | 2 |
> | O X X O | | X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>Pip count X: 159 O: 120, X to play 11

I will hit rather than hang around. There's no totally
safe play which hits, so:
6/5(2), 13/12*/11

--bks

badgolferman

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Nov 2, 2012, 10:22:12 PM11/2/12
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Same play.

Grunty

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Nov 3, 2012, 6:46:56 AM11/3/12
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On Nov 2, 9:30 pm, b...@panix.com (Bradley K. Sherman) wrote:

Don't miss to play the fifth ace: bar/24.

Grunty

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Nov 3, 2012, 6:52:59 AM11/3/12
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On Nov 2, 11:22 pm, "badgolferman" <REMOVETHISbadgolfer...@gmail.com>
wrote:
> Bradley K. Sherman wrote:
Daaad, what is
X
BAR

?

Dunno son, I guess it's a movie about human mutants.

badgolferman

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Nov 3, 2012, 7:57:45 AM11/3/12
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Okay, I have been shown the error of my ways by Grunty.

Bar/23, 13/12*/11

Bradley K. Sherman

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Nov 3, 2012, 8:34:12 AM11/3/12
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>>>Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
>>> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>>> | X O O O | | O O O O X |
>>> | X O | | O O O O |
>>> | X | | |
>>> | | | |
>>> | | X | |
>>> | |BAR| |
>>> | | | X |
>>> | | | X |
>>> | X | | X | +---+
>>> | X X O | | X | | 2 |
>>> | O X X O | | X | +---+
>>> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>>>Pip count X: 159 O: 120, X to play 11

Ahem! Bar/23,6/5(2).

--bks

Grunty

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Nov 4, 2012, 6:07:57 PM11/4/12
to
bar/24 6/5(2) and the last ace...

a) 24/23 is very attractive, providing insurance against gammons.
However its pasivity surrenders too many winning chances. O is
already very advanced, so X needs to try and send a man back.

b) 13/12* is my play. It delays O, puts the newly made 5 point
immediately at work, and deprives O from priming X right away (32, 52,
53, 55 = 7 rolls!). Especially, how would you feel like if O's next
roll turned to be 55.

Walt

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Nov 6, 2012, 11:05:42 AM11/6/12
to
On 11/2/2012 8:15 PM, Walt wrote:

The first ace is forced. Then, making the five point seemed automatic
with the decision being whether to hit from the midpoint or make the
anchor. A systematic flaw in my play is to attack even when defense is
called for, and I hit here: bar/24 13/12* 6/5(2).

But facing 12 checkers in the zone and a solid 5-prime, and with no
board of my own, anchoring up is a must. Hitting is a double whopper
with cheese.

Once you see that anchoring is mandatory, making the 5 is an easy choice.


XGID=------EbCB--aCaa--bbbbbA-A:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:5:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O O X |
| X O | | O O O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X | +---+
| X X O | | X | | 2 |
| O X X O | | X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 159 O: 120 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 11

1. Rollout¹ Bar/23 6/5(2) eq:-0.378
Player: 31.32% (G:4.89% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 68.68% (G:15.25% B:0.89%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.386..-0.370) - [100.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 24 seconds

2. Rollout¹ Bar/23 6/4 eq:-0.493 (-0.115)
Player: 27.48% (G:4.23% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 72.52% (G:15.84% B:0.69%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.502..-0.485) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 20 seconds

3. Rollout¹ Bar/23 13/12* 12/11 eq:-0.603 (-0.225)
Player: 25.26% (G:3.87% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 74.74% (G:19.62% B:1.10%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.612..-0.594) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 25 seconds

4. Rollout¹ Bar/23 13/12* 6/5 eq:-0.630 (-0.252)
Player: 26.72% (G:4.22% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 73.28% (G:24.90% B:1.63%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.639..-0.621) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 10 seconds

5. Rollout¹ Bar/24 13/12* 6/5(2) eq:-0.654 (-0.276)
Player: 29.17% (G:6.53% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 70.83% (G:32.69% B:2.03%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.664..-0.644) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 45 seconds


¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2





--
//Walt

Tim Chow

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Nov 7, 2012, 6:13:43 PM11/7/12
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On Nov 6, 11:05 am, Walt <walt_ask...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> But facing 12 checkers in the zone and a solid 5-prime, and with no
> board of my own,  anchoring up is a must.  Hitting is a double whopper
> with cheese.

I've been busy with a lot of things lately and am just now trying to
catch up a bit.

My sense is that the right way to think about bar/23 is not so much
"anchoring" as "stepping up to the edge of the prime."

One way to partially test this theory is, change the position by
moving X's 23pt blot to the 24pt. Then bar/24 already "anchors" but
doesn't step up to the edge of the prime. How do the plays rank now?

---
Tim Chow

Walt

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Nov 8, 2012, 9:31:51 AM11/8/12
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Agree that merely anchoring is not as strong as anchoring *at the edge
of the 5 prime so that 6's escape*. So, it's not just the anchor,
it's where the anchor is. Of course, with the original position there's
no option to anchor on the ace.

I'll post your variant as another quiz, and make my comments there
before looking at the bot's answer.



--
//Walt
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