XGID=-BAC-BCa-B---B---a---cbbf-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10

These types of problems are easy if you get into the habit of breaking
them down.  Here is what I do:

[22 11 65 64 61 52 42 21]= 14 hit + cover numbers and we win 10.5/14
of those games

[66 33 63 62 51 32] = hit + no cover numbers and we win 6/10 of those
games

[55 44 54 53 43 41 31] = games where we don't hit and we win 2.5/12
games

overall 10.5 + 2.5 + 6 = 19 games or ~52.5%

If we're 52.5% to win there is no way no how this is a double.

O's crunched position means that the pip-count overrepresents O's lead.  About 12 points need to be subtracted from X's pipcount -- 8 for O's crunch and 4 for X being on-roll.  So, if X misses, X can win by winning a race with a deficit of 54 to 73 or by hitting O's blot.

O's board has started to crunch, X has a double shot at the blot, and
hit/dance is (probably) a market loser.  But it's still not time to
double.  Stick probably explained it best, so I won't duplicate that here.

I cubed this one, thinking of the market-losers.  Big mistake.

XGID=-BAC-BCa-B---B---a---cbbf-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X           O    |   |       O  O  O  O |
 | X                |   |       O  O  O  O |
 |                  |   |       O        O |
 |                  |   |                O |
 |                  |   |                6 |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   | X        X       |
 |          X       |   | X  X     X     X |
 |          X     O |   | X  X     X  X  X |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 85  O: 54 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
  Player Winning Chances:   51.77% (G:2.02% B:0.04%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 48.23% (G:2.06% B:0.01%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances:   52.01% (G:1.98% B:0.04%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 47.99% (G:2.05% B:0.01%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.035, Double=+0.076

Cubeful Equities:
       No double:     +0.060
       Double/Take:   -0.337 (-0.398)
       Double/Pass:   +1.000 (+0.940)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 22.9%

Rollout:
  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
  Confidence No Double: ± 0.005 (+0.056..+0.065)
  Confidence Double:    ± 0.007 (-0.344..-0.331)

  Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
  Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

  Duration: 1 minute 50 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2