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5a 5a cube action XGID=--CaDAB---B-d--Cba-db--a- -:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10
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Walt  
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 More options Oct 31 2012, 8:41 am
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
From: Walt <walt_ask...@yahoo.com>
Date: Wed, 31 Oct 2012 08:44:42 -0400
Local: Wed, Oct 31 2012 8:44 am
Subject: 5a 5a cube action XGID=--CaDAB---B-d--Cba-db--a--:0:0:1:00 :0:0:0:5:10
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XGID=--CaDAB---B-d--Cba-db--a--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10

X:You   O:O
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 |       X  O  O    |   | O  O        O    |
 |       X  O       |   | O  O             |
 |       X          |   | O                |
 |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 | O                |   |       X          |
 | O                |   |       X     X    |
 | O     X          |   | X     X     X    |
 | O     X          |   | X  X  X  O  X    |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 104  O: 136 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action


 
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badgolferman  
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 More options Oct 31 2012, 8:50 am
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
From: "badgolferman" <REMOVETHISbadgolfer...@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 31 Oct 2012 12:50:40 +0000 (UTC)
Local: Wed, Oct 31 2012 8:50 am
Subject: Re: 5a 5a cube action XGID=--CaDAB---B-d--Cba-db--a--:0:0:1:00 :0:0:0:5:10
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ND/Take

 
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Bradley K. Sherman  
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 More options Oct 31 2012, 9:15 am
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
From: b...@panix.com (Bradley K. Sherman)
Date: Wed, 31 Oct 2012 13:15:58 +0000 (UTC)
Local: Wed, Oct 31 2012 9:15 am
Subject: Re: 5a 5a cube action XGID=--CaDAB---B-d--Cba-db--a--:0:0:1:00 :0:0:0:5:10
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I'm doubling on the race and dropping on having
no anchor, two bad blots and if X gets just a
little lucky O gets gammoned.

Double/drop

    --bks


 
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Discussion subject changed to "5a 5a cube action XGID=--CaDAB---B-d--Cba-db--a- -:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10 ROLLOUT" by Walt
Walt  
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 More options Nov 2 2012, 11:38 am
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
From: Walt <walt_ask...@yahoo.com>
Date: Fri, 02 Nov 2012 11:38:27 -0400
Local: Fri, Nov 2 2012 11:38 am
Subject: Re: 5a 5a cube action XGID=--CaDAB---B-d--Cba-db--a--:0:0:1:00 :0:0:0:5:10 ROLLOUT
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On 10/31/2012 8:44 AM, Walt wrote:

A good way to win short matches (or late scores in long matches) is to
get some gammon chances and push the cube.  Here, X is not that strong
to win, but with 12 checkers in the zone against a single blot the
gammon chances are high. O's other two blots support a blitz, so turn
the cube now and go for four.

Big blunder to hold here as I did otb.  The take is fairly close.

XGID=--CaDAB---B-d--Cba-db--a--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 |       X  O  O    |   | O  O        O    |
 |       X  O       |   | O  O             |
 |       X          |   | O                |
 |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 | O                |   |       X          |
 | O                |   |       X     X    |
 | O     X          |   | X     X     X    |
 | O     X          |   | X  X  X  O  X    |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 104  O: 136 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
  Player Winning Chances:   68.98% (G:26.84% B:0.30%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 31.02% (G:6.89% B:0.30%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances:   68.74% (G:28.38% B:0.37%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 31.26% (G:6.92% B:0.37%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.562, Double=+1.255

Cubeful Equities:
       No double:     +0.811 (-0.189)
       Double/Take:   +1.017 (+0.017)
       Double/Pass:   +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
  Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.802..+0.821)
  Confidence Double:    ± 0.016 (+1.001..+1.032)

  Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
  Take Decision confidence: 98.3%

  Duration: 19 minutes 34 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

--
//Walt


 
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pepste...@gmail.com  
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 More options Nov 2 2012, 12:00 pm
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
From: pepste...@gmail.com
Date: Fri, 2 Nov 2012 09:00:51 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Fri, Nov 2 2012 12:00 pm
Subject: Re: 5a 5a cube action XGID=--CaDAB---B-d--Cba-db--a--:0:0:1:00 :0:0:0:5:10 ROLLOUT
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On Friday, November 2, 2012 3:38:33 PM UTC, Walt wrote:

...

> Big blunder to hold here as I did otb.  The take is fairly close.

>        Double/Take:   +1.017 (+0.017)

>        Double/Pass:   +1.000

> Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Don't you mean to say that the pass is close?

Paul Epstein


 
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Walt  
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 More options Nov 2 2012, 5:36 pm
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
From: Walt <walt_ask...@yahoo.com>
Date: Fri, 02 Nov 2012 17:36:53 -0400
Local: Fri, Nov 2 2012 5:36 pm
Subject: Re: 5a 5a cube action XGID=--CaDAB---B-d--Cba-db--a--:0:0:1:00 :0:0:0:5:10 ROLLOUT
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On 11/2/2012 12:00 PM, pepste...@gmail.com wrote:

> On Friday, November 2, 2012 3:38:33 PM UTC, Walt wrote:
> ...
>> Big blunder to hold here as I did otb.  The take is fairly close.

>>        Double/Take:   +1.017 (+0.017)

>>        Double/Pass:   +1.000

>> Best Cube action: Double / Pass

> Don't you mean to say that the pass is close?

This is what I get for not paying attention.  4-ply Analysis says this
is a take, and I didn't look at the rollout results close enough to
notice that the rollout disagrees.

Anyway, the take *decision* is close and the correct answer is to pass.

Analyzed in 4-ply
Player Winning Chances:   69.03% (G:25.81% B:0.26%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.97% (G:6.40% B:0.21%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.559, Double=+1.218

Cubeful Equities:
       No double:     +0.802 (-0.158)
       Double/Take:   +0.959
       Double/Pass:   +1.000 (+0.041)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

--
//Walt


 
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