match to 5 blitz recube

[Walt]

GNU Backgammon Position ID: ZmbwAURmvoIgAw
Match ID : UQmnAAAAAAAA
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O: O
| X O X | O | O X O O | 0 points
| O | | O X O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
v| |BAR| | 5 point match
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X X | Rolled 61
| O X X | | X X O X | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X: You (Cube: 2)
pips: O 152 X 128

Double or hold? Take or pass?

[Paul]

Massive pass, of course. But is it too good?

X should have a fairly efficient cube unless O anchors, so I would
hold as X.
X's pip lead is significant, too.

Too good to double/ pass.

Without researching match equity, it's the prospect of leading 4-0
which is attractive.

It might be a cash for money, I don't know.

For money, I can't decide between double/pass and too-good.

Paul Epstein

[badgolferman]

Hold / Take

[Bradley K. Sherman]

Walt <walt_...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O: O
> | X O X | O | O X O O | 0 points
> | O | | O X O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
>v| |BAR| | 5 point match
> | O | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O | | X X X | Rolled 61
> | O X X | | X X O X | 0 points
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X: You (Cube: 2)
>pips: O 152 X 128
>
>Double or hold? Take or pass?

I'm on strike against cube problems where the player has
already rolled.

--bks

[Walt]

On 3/30/2012 9:23 AM, Bradley K. Sherman wrote:

>
> I'm on strike against cube problems where the player has
> already rolled.

GNU Backgammon Position ID: ZmbwAURmvoIgAw
Match ID : UQmnAAAAAAAA

+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O: O
| X O X | O | O X O O | 0 points
| O | | O X O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
v| |BAR| | 5 point match
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |

| O | | X X X | On Roll

| O X X | | X X O X | 0 points
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X: You (Cube: 2)
pips: O 152 X 128

Try this one instead.

[Bradley K. Sherman]

Walt <walt_...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ O: O
> | X O X | O | O X O O | 0 points
> | O | | O X O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
>v| |BAR| | 5 point match
> | O | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O | | X X X | On Roll
> | O X X | | X X O X | 0 points
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ X: You (Cube: 2)

>pips: O 152 X 128 redouble?

No redouble, take.

--bks

[Walt]

OTB, this came amidst about 8 positions that were too good to double.
When my opponent suddenly turned the game around I asked whether I had
missed a double in there somewhere. This is it.

My thoughts were that with 11 checkers in the zone, a three point board,
a blot to shoot at with one on the bar, plus an anchor to fall back on
in case the blitz failed it seemed correct to take a shake and see if I
could press the gammon. It didn't occur to me that O had a take!
Certainly I would have cubed if I thought O would take this - and it
didn't seem very close. But it's a take; narrow, but a take.

In retrospect, the strength of the position is the 40% gammon rate, and
since I won't realize the full value of the gammon AtS if the cube is at
4, O can take with 33% GWC.


Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0.725 (Money: +0.671)

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.992
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.008)
3. No double +0.914 ( -0.078)
Proper cube action: Redouble, take

Rollout details:
Player X owns 2-cube:
0.670 0.404 0.012 - 0.330 0.078 0.007 CL +0.725 CF +0.914
[0.001 0.002 0.001 - 0.001 0.003 0.002 CL 0.005 CF 0.007]
Player O owns 4-cube:
0.675 0.406 0.030 - 0.325 0.089 0.012 CL +1.218 CF +0.992
[0.002 0.002 0.003 - 0.002 0.004 0.002 CL 0.009 CF 0.011]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 910687781 and
quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]



--
//Walt