DMP: Struggling to stay alive

[Tim Chow]

XGID=-C-a-CCBB----a---bbcdb--B-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:1:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2

Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X |
| X X | | X X X |
| X X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pipcount X: 114 O: 110 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube : 1
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

[badgolferman]

Two choices for me. The safe 8/5, 8/2 or 8/2, 6/3*.

8/5, 8/2 moves in the guys safely and forces me to crunch my home
board. This tactic rarely works for me unless the opponent leaves an
opening and I get the miracle roll.

The bold 8/2, 6/3* forces my checkers to be hit and returned to O's
home board. Considering I already have a foundation on the 24-point,
any additional checkers will be useful in creating chaos and possibly
taking up another point. O does have some builders outside his home
board so this tactic is wrought with danger too.

Since this is a 1-point match and I needn't worry about falling behind
I think I'll go for the bold move. 8/2, 6/3*.

[Walt]

The obvious play is 8/2 8/5. I'm not seeing the utility of having
another checker sent back, so I'm not inclined to leave any shots.
Something like 8/2 5/3* is intriguing, but I can't seeing it as clearly
better.

I'll make the obvious play, knowing full well that QF probably means I'm
wrong.


--
//Walt

[Bradley K. Sherman]

Tim Chow <tchow...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O O O | | O O O X |
> | O O | | O O O X |
> | | | O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X X X |
> | X X | | X X X |
> | X X | | X X O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

>Pipcount X: 114 O: 110 X-O: 0-0/1, X to play 63

8/2, 8/5. After all, I can still win the race.

--bks

[Tim Chow]

We should start by observing just how bad X's position is. Though the
pip count is even, X can't race because he has two checkers pinned
behind O's five-prime. He's in serious danger of crashing.
Intentionally leaving blots in order to get them sent back for a
backgame isn't going to work either because X has no timing. Until
this roll, X might have hoped to counter-prime O's straggler, but now
he's forced to give up another point. It seems that there's not much
of a game plan other than to hope to roll small and not crash and hope
to roll something that will escape the back checkers without getting
attacked.

There is, however, another possibility. X can attack O and hope to
escape his back checkers while O is busy dancing. It's a slim
possibility but worth trying when getting gammoned doesn't matter. If
instead X plays passively and doesn't hit, then O will have the chance
to roll her prime forwards and squeeze X even more.

=======
Rollout
=======

1. Rollout: 8/2 6/3* eq:-0.757
Player : 12.16% (G:1.30% B:0.02%)
Opponent: 87.84% (G:36.61% B:9.25%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.762<E<-0.752)

2. Rollout: 7/1 6/3* eq:-0.792 (-0.035)
Player : 10.41% (G:1.03% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 89.59% (G:33.95% B:7.15%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.797<E<-0.787)

3. Rollout: 8/5 8/2 eq:-0.795 (-0.039)
Player : 10.23% (G:0.88% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 89.77% (G:20.86% B:1.93%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.799<E<-0.791)

4. Rollout: 8/2 5/2 eq:-0.798 (-0.042)
Player : 10.09% (G:0.77% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 89.91% (G:28.45% B:2.79%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.802<E<-0.794)

1108 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 4 moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

---
Tim Chow