Gammonfever BG Quiz - Position #9

[Micke Nilsson]

O on roll, Cube or no Cube? And please, no bot solutions right away :o)

Money session. Score X-O: 0-0

O on roll, cube action
+-1--2--3--4--5--6--------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| O O O X O | | O O |
| O O O X O | | O O |
| X O | | O | S
| | | | n
| | | | o
| |BAR| | w
| | | | i
| | | | e
| | | |
| X X X X | | X |
| X X X X X | | X X O |
+24-23-22-21-20-19-------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
Pipcount X: 120 O: 106 X-O: 0-0/Money (1)
CubeValue: 1

[danc...@yahoo.com]

O has the racing edge but X has O's five point and what looks to be
reasonable timing. O is probably a favorite but with few market losers
(such as 44 or 55), I'd recommend waiting for a better opportunity.

[paulde...@att.net]

This has to be a hold -- I really will be amazed if it's a double
(although I seem to always get these positions wrong.) In racing
terms, we get an initial assessment of this position with Robertie's 8,
9, 12 rule. 0's lead is 14/106 = 13%. So, if it were a pure race, it
would only be a narrow drop. But, from X's standpoint, it's far far
better than a pure race because 0 is unlikely to leave the 11 point
without giving a 17/36 direct shot. All 0's points are very difficult
to clear.

With 0's shot equity and a not overwhelming racing lead, there are very
few market losing sequences in the next two ply (0's roll followed by
X's roll). No double, for sure. However, X can't beaver if 0 blunders
and doubles.

[Grunty]

No hurry for O to double here. The race advantage isn't huge. X will
probably still have a take a couple of turns later.

[Micke Nilsson]

3-ply instant evaluation:

Money session. Score X-O: 0-0

O on roll, cube action
+-1--2--3--4--5--6--------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| O O O X O | | O O |
| O O O X O | | O O |
| X O | | O | S
| | | | n
| | | | o
| |BAR| | w
| | | | i
| | | | e
| | | |
| X X X X | | X |
| X X X X X | | X X O |
+24-23-22-21-20-19-------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
Pipcount X: 120 O: 106 X-O: 0-0/Money (1)
CubeValue: 1

3-Ply Money equity: 0,365
0,2% 4,2% 67,7% 32,3% 3,2% 0,1%
1. No double 0,548
2. Double, take 0,495 (-0,053)
3. Double, pass 1,000 (+0,452)
Proper cube action: No double, take 10%

------------------------------ End ----------------------------------

Money session. Score X-O: 0-0

O on roll, cube action
+-1--2--3--4--5--6--------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| O O O X O | | O O |
| O O O X O | | O O |
| X O | | O | S
| | | | n
| | | | o
| |BAR| | w
| | | | i
| | | | e
| | | |
| X X X X | | X |
| X X X X X | | X X O |
+24-23-22-21-20-19-------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
Pipcount X: 120 O: 106 X-O: 0-0/Money (1)
CubeValue: 1

Rollout Money equity: 0,366
0,2% 2,9% 68,1% 31,9% 2,6% 0,0%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0,366 ą0,019,
- live cube no double: 0,608 ą0,032,
- live cube double take: 0,559 ą0,039.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
324 games (equiv. 15157 games),
played 3-ply (standard), cube 3-ply,
settlement 0,550 at 16 pts,
seed 1, without race database.
Evaluations
1. No double 0,552
2. Double, take 0,500 (-0,052)
3. Double, pass 1,000 (+0,448)
Proper cube action: No double, take 10%
Live cube
1. No double 0,608
2. Double, take 0,559 (-0,049)
3. Double, pass 1,000 (+0,392)
Proper cube action: No double, take 11%

[David C. Ullrich]

WEll, I guess I'm wrong, but just to prove I didn't cheat
if I ever get one right, I would have thought this was
a double and probably a drop. Seems like a drop if it
were a pure race, and I would have thought that O's men
on the 12 and 13 points would give him a reasonable
chance to clear the 11 point safely (O could make
more outside points for landing spots and/or have
time to wait for the miracle.)

I guess not.

On Fri, 23 Sep 2005 16:47:25 GMT, "Micke Nilsson" <na...@home.se>
wrote:

************************

David C. Ullrich

[paulde...@att.net]

But this reasoning would seem to lead to a verdict of "either hold or
double/take" rather than "probably a drop." Standard racing formulas
lead to a very marginal drop so if 0's position is in any sense weaker
than a pure race, it can't be a drop. However, your own analysis
alludes to additional problems such as points to be cleared etc. Since
the drop (if only pipcount mattered) is so marginal, to argue for
"probably a drop" you would need to conclude that the contact
possibilities don't hurt 0 at all.
However, even by your own analysis, 0 has only a "reasonable chance" of
clearing the 11 point safely.

So I see a contradiction between your analysis and your conclusion.
Perhaps the problem is that you didn't apply the racing formula to see
how narrow the drop would be if it were a pure race.

Paul Epstein