Gammonfever BG Quiz - Position #14
Micke Nilsson
Money session. Score X-O: 0-0
O on roll, cube action
+-1--2--3--4--5--6--------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| X O X O O | | O X |
| X O O O | | O X |
| O | | O X | S
| | | | n
| | | | o
| |BAR| | w
| | | | i
| | | X | e
| X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
+24-23-22-21-20-19-------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
Pipcount X: 164 O: 139 X-O: 0-0/Money (1)
CubeValue: 1
Philippe Michel
Double/take. No qualms for either decision. Nor much thought either : this
looks like a fairly standard middle game double where I would tend to
double or take on autopilot.
O is better on every aspect, but not overwhelmingly better ; he has some
big threats (hitting on the 4pt and not being hit back). This is a good
time to double.
X cannot be blitzed and has chances to get a better anchor. He is unlikely
to be primed. The gammon risk does not look dissuading. He should take.
paulde...@att.net
I think O should hold. The only crushing market losers are when O
points on the 4 blot and X dances -- not enough for a double.
O has problems releasing the men on 21. X has prospects of anchoring
on the 4 point. An acepoint game is not so bad and X will have plenty
of opportunities to hit O. Even with no further contact, O is not so
far behind in the race -- just 66 behind which O has plenty of rolls to
get.
No double. However, I don't believe doubling would be a blunder.
Paul Epstein
paulde...@att.net
Perhaps if you double these positions, you ought to experiment with
doubling a bit later. Hitting on the 4 point and not being hit back
still gives X plenty of chances to win -- O hasn't lost its market by
so much in this variation.
Bad idea to double when there's so few prospects of significant market
losers -- O should hold.
paulde...@att.net
paulde...@att.net
etc.
levendis
2:4, and then only with a dance by X. O has 6 rolls that either weaken
his position or force blots. X has just enough timing to make O's trip
from 21 difficult, and doesn't have any significantly bad rolls.
My gut said No Double/Take. get ready with that cube, but don't turn it
yet.
--Deron
Raccoon
with a better board, better anchor, fewer back and a pointing/priming
threat. Naturally with all those advantages he did not double and
rolled 51. He may have misplayed it, but no matter. "See?" he said.
"That's why I play poker now." I'm not sure what he meant.
paulde...@att.net
want to hear what the experts say!
Paul Epstein
Philippe Michel
> I agree with Paul on this one. Significant market losers are 2:2, 4:4,
> 2:4, and then only with a dance by X.
If O makes the 4 point, 1:3, 1:4 and 1:5 by X look about as bad as
dancing. On the other hand, after a loose hit, only 1:5 plays poorly.
Moreover, 1:1 (5/4*(2) 8/7(2)) and 6:6 are very strong for O as well.
paulde...@att.net
overly swayed by very unlikely parlays. "If O makes the 4 point, 1:3,
1:4, 1:5 look ... bad". Yes indeed! But this parlay happens less than
2% of the time!
The standard double/take middlegame you're referring to occurs when O's
men on the 21 point are released, on the 17 point for example. Even
then, it's an easy take.
Note that none of the market losers you refer to are completely
crushing. In the absolute worst case, X has a very viable ace-point
game.
Paul Epstein
Raccoon
paulde...@att.net wrote:
> Yes, Raccoon, but how about giving your opinion on the position? We
> want to hear what the experts say!
What do they say? Seems to me that
> up 25 pips with a
> better board
> better anchor
> fewer back
> and a pointing/priming threat
with a few market losers ought to be enough to double, however easy the
take is.
paulde...@att.net
myself a non-expert. [I know nothing about the play of the others in
this thread]
I did think the hold was clear, and am surprised that Raccoon
disagrees. This disagreement has made me less confident about the
hold.
I was hoping to resolve this through a reference position in Robertie's
501 (I'm keeping to the no-bot spirit for now) but this was no help at
all. There are positions which fall broadly in the same category but
his double/takes are much stronger for the favourite and his holds are
much weaker. This one falls somewhere in the middle.
>From the position alone, I class it as a definite hold. However, it
does give pause for thought when a strong player like Raccoon says
something different.
Paul Epstein
Micke Nilsson
Money session. Score X-O: 0-0
O on roll, cube action
+-1--2--3--4--5--6--------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| X O X O O | | O X |
| X O O O | | O X |
| O | | O X | S
| | | | n
| | | | o
| |BAR| | w
| | | | i
| | | X | e
| X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
+24-23-22-21-20-19-------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
Pipcount X: 164 O: 139 X-O: 0-0/Money (1)
CubeValue: 1
3-Ply Money equity: 0,481
1,6% 23,4% 65,7% 34,3% 7,9% 0,4%
1. Double, take 0,712
2. No double 0,686 (-0,027)
3. Double, pass 1,000 (+0,288)
Proper cube action: Double, take
------------------------------ End ----------------------------------
Money session. Score X-O: 0-0
O on roll, cube action
+-1--2--3--4--5--6--------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| X O X O O | | O X |
| X O O O | | O X |
| O | | O X | S
| | | | n
| | | | o
| |BAR| | w
| | | | i
| | | X | e
| X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
+24-23-22-21-20-19-------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
Pipcount X: 164 O: 139 X-O: 0-0/Money (1)
CubeValue: 1
Rollout Money equity: 0,432
0,7% 25,2% 63,1% 36,9% 8,5% 0,4%
Rollout settings:
Full rollout, 1 games,
played 3-ply (standard), cube 3-ply,
settlement 0,550 at 16 pts,
seed 1, without race database.
Evaluations
1. No double 0,620
2. Double, take 0,595 (-0,025)
3. Double, pass 1,000 (+0,380)
Proper cube action: No double, take 6%
Live cube
1. No double 0,794
2. Double, take 0,594 (-0,199)
3. Double, pass 1,000 (+0,206)
Proper cube action: No double, take 49%
------------------------------ End ----------------------------------
Raccoon
Micke Nilsson wrote:
> Rollout settings:
> Full rollout, 1 games,
1 game?
Micke Nilsson
/Micke
"Raccoon" <racg...@yahoo.com> skrev i meddelandet
news:1128450768.6...@g47g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
Grunty
But... oh well, you lazy to correct our homework I see. A somewhat
little short rollout there...
So, still on time to say: No double yet.
Going back home now, see you tomorrow...
Micke Nilsson
intention was to wait for your answer before I posted Snowie's answer. Due
to my rollout error you got the extra time needed to get your answer in time
also. I'll try to post the new rollout and the next position later today
when I get back from work.
/Micke
"Grunty" <grunti...@yahoo.com> skrev i meddelandet
news:1128476855.7...@g49g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
Micke Nilsson
Money session. Score X-O: 0-0
O on roll, cube action
+-1--2--3--4--5--6--------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| X O X O O | | O X |
| X O O O | | O X |
| O | | O X | S
| | | | n
| | | | o
| |BAR| | w
| | | | i
| | | X | e
| X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
+24-23-22-21-20-19-------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
Pipcount X: 164 O: 139 X-O: 0-0/Money (1)
CubeValue: 1
Rollout Money equity: 0,523
2,2% 23,4% 67,1% 32,9% 7,3% 0,3%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0,523 ą0,023,
- live cube no double: 0,746 ą0,036,
- live cube double take: 0,796 ą0,057.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
324 games (equiv. 12158 games),
played 3-ply (standard), cube 3-ply,
settlement 0,550 at 16 pts,
seed 1, without race database.
Evaluations
1. Double, take 0,806
2. No double 0,734 (-0,072)
3. Double, pass 1,000 (+0,194)
Proper cube action: Double, take
Live cube
1. Double, take 0,796
2. No double 0,746 (-0,050)
3. Double, pass 1,000 (+0,204)