Gammonfever BG Quiz - Position #5
Micke Nilsson
+24-23-22-21-20-19-------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| X O O O | | O O X X |
| O O O | | O O |
| O | | | S
| O | | | n
| | | | o
| |BAR| | w
| | O | | i
| | | | e
| | | X |
| X X X X | | X O |
| X X X X X | | X O |
+-1--2--3--4--5--6--------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
Pipcount X: 110 O: 119 X-O: 0-0/Money (1)
CubeValue: 1
paulde...@att.net
a big take. My guess is that passing is a blunder in the 0.1 + range.
There are 14 big market losers based on covering the 4 but 0 has lots
of winning chances based on priming the checker on the 24 point and
picking up the 2 blots.
Note also that O has great diversification. O enters with 1 and 4 and
hits blots with 2 and 3.
On the other hand, X is quite badly duplicated. X needs 3's, 1's or 2's
to safety the man on the 4 point but also needs the ace to play 15-14.
CORRECTION. I'm making a big error. (I won't erase and rewrite
because it may be interesting to see a player's thought processes as
they might occur over the board.) An essential point is that the guys
on the 15 and 14 points cover the 4 point, creating extra cover
numbers. The number of big market losers (covering the 4 point) is
actually a whopping 19. These give great gammon equity. I think that
X scores about 35% gammons when he covers. (Why do I think this? I
seem to remember a statistic that one closed out with 2 to bring in
from the midpoint is a 30% gammon situation. I'm trying to adjust to
account for the extras on the 17 and 18 point bringing extra gammons
and the chances to enter on the ace point decreasing the gammons.)
New verdict: Double and marginal pass
Paul Epstein
David C. Ullrich
My guess is that it's a clear drop for O. If X doesn't cover
this time he presumably brings down some ammunition, so if
O doesn't hit right away X is going to have a _huge_ chance
to cover next time.
Yes, 3's are duplicated for X. Except not really - I think
if X rolls a 3 he simply covers - then he has a full prime
and his two spare men should give him plenty of time to
escape(?) I mean after he brings the spare men in he can
slot the one point - if he's hit he gets more time,
if he's not hit then he has _more_ men to play in after
he covers the one point.
Oh. I see we're making different assumptions about X's
checker play. You say he wants to save the blot on the
4 point with a 1 or a 2, hence some duplication. If
he does that then of course what I say about X being
a huge favorite to make a prime _next_ time if O
misses doesn't apply... Seems likely one of us is
making a large error here, probably me: if I were
X I think I'd tend to leave the point slotted, hoping
to make a prime next time. Of course which of these
is right is going to have a large effect on what
the right cube decision is.
I'm so confused...
************************
David C. Ullrich
Grunty
And with Paul in that there are too many immediate cover rolls,
combined with some significant amount of gammons.
It's a huge pass, imo.
So clear, that I wonder how can this position be a hard problem.
Will the QuizMaster have some startling surprise for us?
Grunty
Should we swap inner & outer boards, that *would* still be some of a
problem !
I mean, leave the checkers right where they stand, just turn the 12-13
points into 1-24 points.
It would look like O just rolled his only dancing number: 66, and X is
doubling.
Should O take? Not clear at all !
Micke, might this be a reverse setup case?
This would then be Gammonfever BG Quiz - Position #-5 !
Micke Nilsson
if Snowie has a surprise here...
"Grunty" <grunti...@yahoo.com> skrev i meddelandet
news:1126671991....@g47g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
Micke Nilsson
3-ply instant evaluation should be the one to compare with allthough a full
rollout is the way to go to get the "real result". The 3-ply instant
evaluation says double, pass, but just a marginal error to take (-0.015).
This would however suggest that Gammonfever here did pass, but that one
could think it could be correct to take? That is if I have gotten the
position correct, which I can't check until I get back home tomorrow.
At the table, without much time to think, you might not see how many rolls
that actually cover?
And I'm not sure that every one of these positions are really hard. The only
thing I, as a messenger, know is that it would be extremely hard to get all
18 right...
"Micke Nilsson" <na...@home.se> skrev i meddelandet
news:dg8plo$p17$1...@green.tninet.se...
Raccoon
Micke Nilsson wrote:
> Just realized that for the original reason, to proove eventual cheating, the
> 3-ply instant evaluation should be the one to compare with allthough a full
> rollout is the way to go to get the "real result".
Only if the player is using Snowie, and using 3-ply evaluations. There
are several bot analyzers, and several choices of evaluation levels.
But yes, it's the evaluation, not the rollout, that matters.
Micke Nilsson
his positions) that it might be correct as it is and he remembered that it
was only a marginal drop, at least according to a immediate 3-ply
evaluation. I'll post the rollout result shortly and will start over with a
new fresh #6...
/Micke
"Micke Nilsson" <na...@home.se> skrev i meddelandet
news:dg8qgk$qga$1...@green.tninet.se...
Grunty
Micke Nilsson
Money session. Score X-O: 0-0
X on roll, cube action
+24-23-22-21-20-19-------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| X O O O | | O O X X |
| O O O | | O O |
| O | | | S
| O | | | n
| | | | o
| |BAR| | w
| | O | | i
| | | | e
| | | X |
| X X X X | | X O |
| X X X X X | | X O |
+-1--2--3--4--5--6--------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
Pipcount X: 110 O: 119 X-O: 0-0/Money (1)
CubeValue: 1
3-Ply Money equity: 0,606
1,0% 27,4% 70,9% 29,1% 9,0% 0,7%
1. Double, pass 1,000
2. No double 0,654 (-0,346)
3. Double, take 1,015 (+0,015)
Proper cube action: Double, pass
------------------------------ End ----------------------------------
3-ply rollout
Money session. Score X-O: 0-0
X on roll, cube action
+24-23-22-21-20-19-------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| X O O O | | O O X X |
| O O O | | O O |
| O | | | S
| O | | | n
| | | | o
| |BAR| | w
| | O | | i
| | | | e
| | | X |
| X X X X | | X O |
| X X X X X | | X O |
+-1--2--3--4--5--6--------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
Pipcount X: 110 O: 119 X-O: 0-0/Money (1)
CubeValue: 1
Rollout Money equity: 0,639
0,4% 28,5% 71,9% 28,1% 8,0% 0,8%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0,639 ą0,024,
- live cube no double: 0,688 ą0,030,
- live cube double take: 1,107 ą0,056.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
324 games (equiv. 9768 games),
played 3-ply (standard), cube 3-ply,
settlement 0,550 at 16 pts,
seed 1, without race database.
Evaluations
1. Double, pass 1,000
2. No double 0,664 (-0,336)
3. Double, take 1,086 (+0,086)
Proper cube action: Double, pass
Live cube
1. Double, pass 1,000
2. No double 0,688 (-0,312)
3. Double, take 1,107 (+0,107)
Proper cube action: Double, pass