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Gammonfever BG Quiz - Position #15

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Micke Nilsson

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Oct 5, 2005, 12:37:32 PM10/5/05
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O on roll, Cube or no Cube? And please, no bot solutions right away :o)


Money session. Score X-O: 0-0

O on roll, cube action
+-1--2--3--4--5--6--------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| O O O O | | O O X |
| O O | | O X |
| O | | O | S
| O | | | n
| | X | | o
| |BAR| | w
| X | | | i
| X | | | e
| X | | X |
| X O X | | X X |
| X O X | | X X O |
+24-23-22-21-20-19-------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
Pipcount X: 131 O: 125 X-O: 0-0/Money (1)
CubeValue: 1


Grunty

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Oct 5, 2005, 1:03:34 PM10/5/05
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Double.
O will likely make the 4 point (and could same time make the 7 point).

Take, mainly due to the hitting chances on any remaining inner blot.
Besides, X has chances to escape the prime.

paulde...@att.net

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Oct 5, 2005, 2:30:45 PM10/5/05
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Clear double, clear take.

Not doubling is a blunder, and passing is also a blunder.

Paul Epstein

Micke Nilsson

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Oct 7, 2005, 4:07:46 PM10/7/05
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3-ply instant evaluation:

Money session. Score X-O: 0-0

O on roll, cube action
+-1--2--3--4--5--6--------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| O O O O | | O O X |
| O O | | O X |
| O | | O | S
| O | | | n
| | X | | o
| |BAR| | w
| X | | | i
| X | | | e
| X | | X |
| X O X | | X X |
| X O X | | X X O |
+24-23-22-21-20-19-------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
Pipcount X: 131 O: 125 X-O: 0-0/Money (1)
CubeValue: 1

3-Ply Money equity: 0,394
0,6% 24,7% 60,8% 39,2% 7,2% 0,3%
1. No double 0,564
2. Double, take 0,501 (-0,063)
3. Double, pass 1,000 (+0,436)
Proper cube action: No double, take 13%

------------------------------ End ----------------------------------

3-ply full roullout:


Money session. Score X-O: 0-0

O on roll, cube action
+-1--2--3--4--5--6--------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| O O O O | | O O X |
| O O | | O X |
| O | | O | S
| O | | | n
| | X | | o
| |BAR| | w
| X | | | i
| X | | | e
| X | | X |
| X O X | | X X |
| X O X | | X X O |
+24-23-22-21-20-19-------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
Pipcount X: 131 O: 125 X-O: 0-0/Money (1)
CubeValue: 1


Rollout Money equity: 0,366
0,8% 24,8% 59,2% 40,8% 7,1% 0,2%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0,366 ą0,024,
- live cube no double: 0,472 ą0,047,
- live cube double take: 0,397 ą0,063.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
324 games (equiv. 11570 games),
played 3-ply (standard), cube 3-ply,
settlement 0,550 at 16 pts,
seed 1, without race database.
Evaluations
1. No double 0,524
2. Double, take 0,434 (-0,089)
3. Double, pass 1,000 (+0,476)
Proper cube action: No double, take 16%
Live cube
1. No double 0,472
2. Double, take 0,397 (-0,075)
3. Double, pass 1,000 (+0,528)
Proper cube action: No double, take 12%

------------------------------ End ----------------------------------


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