Gammonfever BG Quiz - Position #10

[Micke Nilsson]

O on roll, Cube or no Cube? And please, no bot solutions right away :o)

Money session. Score X-O: 0-0

O on roll, cube action
+-1--2--3--4--5--6--------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O O | | X |
| O | | X | S
| O | | X | n
| O | | | o
| |BAR| | w
| | | | i
| | | | e
| | | O |
| X X O X | | X O |
| X X O X | | X X O |
+24-23-22-21-20-19-------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
Pipcount X: 146 O: 147 X-O: 0-0/Money (1)
CubeValue: 1

[paulde...@att.net]

A very obvious hold. O doesn't have a significant advantage.

I also think that X should beaver a double. Why should X beaver?
There's a handy benchmark for beavering. Take the initial position.
Imagine that the opening roll was 11 (although that's impossible of
course). Imagine also that the player with the 11 doubled immediately
afterwards (again impossible of course, since X is on roll.) Then that
double is right at the border between beaver/ no beaver. Since O's
advantage seems to me to be smaller than in that scenario, I think X
should beaver.

Paul Epstein

[Grunty]

O is close to a strong double, but imo technically short yet.
Whether he hits the blot or makes another inner point, he will have a
double and X still a take.

O has clear assets here:
* a direct shot
* an advanced anchor
* good immediate prospects to make the 5 point.
Point to note: 6 are duplicated.

X has enough defensive resources to take (right now and a roll later):
* an anchor of his own
* a 3 point board allows him to face an exchange of hits
* and, should he avoids the hit, an even race.
Point to note: Getting hit is bad, but not too bad, since he could
advance his anchor. Nonetheless, there's a subtle feature in the
position, that is his stripped situation. A hit could lead him to
either expose another checker on the outfield or put a checker inside
under the gun.

[David C. Ullrich]

Sure doesn't look like a double to me - I have less of an
idea whether it's a beaver, although I doubt it (O's direct
shot isn't good and X's one point and three point are not
great either.)

On Sat, 24 Sep 2005 07:45:56 GMT, "Micke Nilsson" <na...@home.se>
wrote:

************************

David C. Ullrich

[Micke Nilsson]

3-ply instant evaluation:

Money session. Score X-O: 0-0

O on roll, cube action
+-1--2--3--4--5--6--------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O O | | X |
| O | | X | S
| O | | X | n
| O | | | o
| |BAR| | w
| | | | i
| | | | e
| | | O |
| X X O X | | X O |
| X X O X | | X X O |
+24-23-22-21-20-19-------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
Pipcount X: 146 O: 147 X-O: 0-0/Money (1)
CubeValue: 1

3-Ply Money equity: 0,379
1,1% 21,9% 62,5% 37,5% 9,7% 0,4%
1. No double 0,550
2. Double, take 0,484 (-0,065)
3. Double, pass 1,000 (+0,450)
Proper cube action: No double, take 13%

------------------------------ End ----------------------------------

3-ply full rollout

Money session. Score X-O: 0-0

O on roll, cube action
+-1--2--3--4--5--6--------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O O | | X |
| O | | X | S
| O | | X | n
| O | | | o
| |BAR| | w
| | | | i
| | | | e
| | | O |
| X X O X | | X O |
| X X O X | | X X O |
+24-23-22-21-20-19-------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
Pipcount X: 146 O: 147 X-O: 0-0/Money (1)
CubeValue: 1

Rollout Money equity: 0,381
0,9% 21,2% 62,6% 37,4% 8,9% 0,3%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0,381 ą0,024,
- live cube no double: 0,573 ą0,052,
- live cube double take: 0,452 ą0,080.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
324 games (equiv. 10034 games),
played 3-ply (standard), cube 3-ply,
settlement 0,550 at 16 pts,
seed 1, without race database.
Evaluations
1. No double 0,554
2. Double, take 0,490 (-0,064)
3. Double, pass 1,000 (+0,446)
Proper cube action: No double, take 13%
Live cube
1. No double 0,573
2. Double, take 0,452 (-0,121)
3. Double, pass 1,000 (+0,427)
Proper cube action: No double, take 22%

------------------------------ End ----------------------------------