Good hand to discuss. BB with KdJd actually has 18.7mil, villain on SB
has him covered but not by much. There's only 12 left at this point and
it's the last hand of the round. I believe blinds were 125k/250k at this
point, ante 30k or so.
Preflop the cutoff raises to 500k, button, SB and BB call. Flop is 7d 3d
Kh, checks all the way to the button who bets 1.45mil, SB raises to
3.4mil, BB raises to 7mil, folds back to SB who shoves.
So what we have here is a check raise, a check raise raise of the check
raise, and a shove over the check raise raise of the check raise. Or
something.
I don't mind the raise to 7mil all that much. The button in this hand was
giving off all sorts of tells throughout the tournament, and the SB may
have picked up on weakness here. SB's raise isn't all that strong at this
point. However, when it comes back to him and he shoves, it's time to
really evaluate what he has. I believe complete air can be thrown out at
this point because of the tournament and stack situation. He's a
competent player and isn't going to do this with something like KQ. That
really only leaves the nut flush draw, K7, or a set.
Based on the fact that there's so much hype over the final table, with all
of the endorsements and huge money on the line, BB should kick himself and
fold here. 11mil is very playable at this point. 0 isn't. Yes 40mil
would be great, but at this point in the tournament, the push to the final
table and the way the play is going to go, 40mil and 11mil are really not
that much different.
I would like KJ's play much more here if he had about 10mil to start the
hand and he can just shove over the check raise. But I think after he is
faced with this action he really needs to give it up.
---
Morphy
xaqm...@donkeymanifesto.com
http://www.donkeymanifesto.com
http://twitter.com/xaqmorphy