Gambling in a No Limit game
Gary Carson
Was at the Chickasaw Winstar casino on exit 1 of I35 in southern Oklahoma last
night. Played some 2/5 nolimit.
Here's one hand for discussion.
It's a $500 max buyin game, but the money was fairly deep among about half the
table. I had about $2,000 in front of me, other relevant player had about
$1,500.
I had a QJ offsuit (jack of diamonds, which becomes relavant later) and called a
$20 bet to see the flop with about 5 other players.
Some of you might think QJ offsuit is a rag and you shouldn't call a raise with
it. This is not a tournament, and, as I said, the money is fairly deep. As a
rule of thumb, Brunson (in super system I) suggested implied odds of about 20-1
and I think that's about right. There was certainly implied odds at the table.
It is a rag hand, potentially dominated, and it is a risky call. But, I don't
mind gambling and I think that's how you get the money in no limit games.
The flop was 983 with two diamonds.
The other deep stack bets $100. One caller in front of me, I call with my two
overcards and gutshot, everybody else folds and the button moves all in.
Another $350. The bettor calls. Other player folds. Should I call here?
I'm getting better than 3-1 on my money to call. I don't think the original
bettor is liking things much right now and don't think he'll bet the turn. I
have 6 overcard outs, one straight out that puts a possible flush on board, 3
outs to the nuts, and a backdoor flush draw. I went into a huddle on this one.
I called. Not sure it was a good call. Any thoughts on that?
Queen of diamonds hit the turn. The original bettor checks. Now I have a
gutshot, top pair, and a 3rd nut flush draw. And, I can represent a made flush.
I don't know what I'd have done if he'd moved all in. But, he checked. So I
moved all in. He froze. He asked how much that was (It was a stack of 100
dollar bills and a few red. I have you covered, I said. He held up a stack of
red with three black chips at the bottom -- "You have this covered?", he asked.
"Yes".
He thought and thought. Finially he mucked.
Some blank hit the river, I showed my hand. The player who had folded the turn
stood up and moaned very loudly, his face contorted in pain. He'd folded two
kings. The allin player mucked without showing.
The player who'd folded the two kings went on serious tilt for about an hour..
Gary Carson
http://garycarson.blogspot.com/
http://www.killtherake.com
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Aardvark
> Was at the Chickasaw Winstar casino on exit 1 of I35 in southern Oklahoma last
> night. Played some 2/5 nolimit.
>
> Here's one hand for discussion.
>
> It's a $500 max buyin game, but the money was fairly deep among about half the
> table. I had about $2,000 in front of me, other relevant player had about
> $1,500.
>
> I had a QJ offsuit (jack of diamonds, which becomes relavant later) and called a
> $20 bet to see the flop with about 5 other players.
>
> Some of you might think QJ offsuit is a rag and you shouldn't call a raise with
> it. This is not a tournament, and, as I said, the money is fairly deep. As a
> rule of thumb, Brunson (in super system I) suggested implied odds of about 20-1
> and I think that's about right. There was certainly implied odds at the table.
> It is a rag hand, potentially dominated, and it is a risky call. But, I don't
> mind gambling and I think that's how you get the money in no limit games.
I think that your call here and the reasoning are both right on the
mark. I didn't see mention of your position though, which I consider
more important when playing dangerous hands. I'm going to guess that
you're in late position though since you seem to be acting last in most
cases, but you're obviously not on the button since he is the allin
guy.
> The flop was 983 with two diamonds.
>
> The other deep stack bets $100. One caller in front of me, I call with my two
> overcards and gutshot,
I wouldn't count on those overcards as being outs here. Since you have
position on the aggressor, I might count them combined as one out.
Having at least one person behind you can be a problem of course and it
this case it turns out to be one. You are really on a 10:1 shot here
and for that I don't think that you're getting the right implied odds,
especially with a player behind you. If your opponents are sufficiently
weak though, then it becomes a borderline call in my opinion.
> everybody else folds and the button moves all in.
> Another $350. The bettor calls. Other player folds. Should I call here?
> I'm getting better than 3-1 on my money to call. I don't think the original
> bettor is liking things much right now and don't think he'll bet the turn. I
> have 6 overcard outs,
Again, I wouldn't be counting on those here. Maybe count them as
partial outs.
> one straight out that puts a possible flush on board, 3
> outs to the nuts, and a backdoor flush draw. I went into a huddle on this one.
> I called. Not sure it was a good call. Any thoughts on that?
This means that you need about 3.1:1 odds to call if you know that you
can get a check on the turn. That's a fairly reasonable assumtion here,
given the slowdown on the flop, but might not always be the case if an
A or K hits for example. Since you're getting right about what you need
it all comes down to your opponents. You have position on the one
player left who can bet, he has money left, and you think that you can
make a move on him if you after. I'd say that it's a borderline call. I
don't know if I would make it, but it's certainly reasonable. I tend to
play more tournament NL than ring games, so I tend to be more
conservative with my "gambles".
> Queen of diamonds hit the turn. The original bettor checks. Now I have a
> gutshot, top pair, and a 3rd nut flush draw. And, I can represent a made flush.
>
> I don't know what I'd have done if he'd moved all in. But, he checked. So I
> moved all in. He froze. He asked how much that was (It was a stack of 100
> dollar bills and a few red. I have you covered, I said. He held up a stack of
> red with three black chips at the bottom -- "You have this covered?", he asked.
> "Yes".
>
> He thought and thought. Finially he mucked.
Sounds like you knew your opponent well enough to know that you could
push him off a hand if you had to. As I said in another post today,
knowing your opponent well can make up for a lot of plays that are
slightly -EV from a theoretical standpoint.
> Some blank hit the river, I showed my hand. The player who had folded the turn
> stood up and moaned very loudly, his face contorted in pain. He'd folded two
> kings. The allin player mucked without showing.
>
> The player who'd folded the two kings went on serious tilt for about an hour..
Nice hand.
-Tom.
WardenS
>
> Nice hand.
>
> -Tom.
Damn, Tom, that's twice in two days you've posted good analysis on here,
IMHO. Of course, you were agreeing with me the first time. ;)
I agree that counting the overcards as full outs here is overly
optimistic. It's just too likely that you're up against AQ, KQ, AJ or KJ
to count 'em, again IMHO.
Out of curiosity, what could the button have had to merit such hubris?
Tens?
WardenS
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Aardvark
> Damn, Tom, that's twice in two days you've posted good analysis on here,
> IMHO. Of course, you were agreeing with me the first time. ;)
<blush>
> I agree that counting the overcards as full outs here is overly
> optimistic. It's just too likely that you're up against AQ, KQ, AJ or KJ
> to count 'em, again IMHO.
You could also be facing JT here, which takes away the Q out, or (as
happened to be the case) a big pair (AA-JJ).
> Out of curiosity, what could the button have had to merit such hubris?
> Tens?
My guesses would be JJ, TT, or A9s and in all cases the allin player
fell victim to the "preflop raiser must have AK" syndrome. He could
also have been holding JT and thought that the flop bet was a
continuation bet and that the call from Gary looked weak enough that he
could get him off of the hand. Or maybe he just decided that he was
going to play for the draw given the pot and that he might as well just
go allin given his stack size. All just guesses though without knowing
the player.
-Tom.
WardenS
I thought of JT, but it would have been a winner.
WardenS
______________________________________________________________________
David Nicoson
> Some blank hit the river, I showed my hand. The player who had folded the turn
> stood up and moaned very loudly, his face contorted in pain. He'd folded two
This is the part that's the biggest surprise to me. What did you have
the all-in player on that you could beat? He's in a raised. Pocket
tens or maybe A9 suited (not of the board suit) seem like about it.
You already have one of the jacks, so probably not jacks. The draws
came through (except 67, which is a bit sketchy).
It doesn't look like a place I'd want to semi-bluff. What's your
thinking here?
Aardvark
> I thought of JT, but it would have been a winner.
> WardenS
Whoops, you're right. I had thought of it, realized it would have been
a winner, then promptly forgot that I had realized that it would have
been a winner. My bad. Time to take another memory pill.
So, I guess that leaves JJ, TT, A9, and a complete bluff. I guess if JT
was considered then 76s might be thrown out there as a possibility.
-Tom.
Gary Carson
On Sep 2 2005 3:28 PM, David Nicoson wrote:
> Gary Carson wrote:
> > Some blank hit the river, I showed my hand. The player who had folded the
> > turn
> > stood up and moaned very loudly, his face contorted in pain. He'd folded
> > two
> > kings. *** The allin player mucked without showing. ***
>
> This is the part that's the biggest surprise to me. What did you have
> the all-in player on that you could beat? He's in a raised. Pocket
> tens or maybe A9 suited (not of the board suit) seem like about it.
> You already have one of the jacks, so probably not jacks. The draws
> came through (except 67, which is a bit sketchy).
I left this part out.
The player with all the chips had been at the table for a while and I thought he
was fairly tight and predictable. I didn't really like my hand with him in the
pot at the gitgo, but I thought it would be easy to know where I was. Once I
flopped the gutshot I was prepared to call a small bet to take a shot at hitting
the nuts and busting him.
The other player was not as well known. He was fairly new to the table, having
moved from a busted 5/10 blind game. He tried to put a shit load of 100's on
the table when he sat down. He hadn't been at the table long but was on his
second buyin and had been very aggresive so far -- lot's of straddles, lot's of
semi bluff raises.
So, I didn't put him on much on the flop and given that the deep money player
slowed down after being raised I thought my overcard outs might actually be
good.
When the diamond hit I didn't like my hand so much. But, I did think that even
if he had a flush I might be able to get the deep money player to fold a hand
like AQ with ace of diamonds (he'd only be getting less than 2-1 on the turn
call) and that the jack of diamonds might be good. I also thought that the
allin player could easily have a hand like A9.
>
> It doesn't look like a place I'd want to semi-bluff. What's your
> thinking here?
See above. I thought the range of hands that the allin player might have was
very large. On the turn he could have anything from the nuts to a jack eight
(he might have made that flop raise with as little as second pair). He might
also have made a straight with the queen, which game me outs -- but first I'd
have to get the deep money player to fold if he had a K or A of diamonds.
I was gambling. And, I think everything I did was pretty marginal. It worked
out, but I'm sure it was really all that smart.
I do think it illustrates one thing that's important. That's that it's often a
good idea to just bet big if you aren't sure, particularly if you know the other
guy isn't sure either.
The deep money player was not just tight, btw, he was very straightforward,
almost no trickiness to him at all.
I thought of myself as basically freerolling the turn bet. I was pretty
confident I wouldn't get called. I did not think I had the allin player beat (I
thought he'd made a flush). But, although I did'n't really expect to drag any
chips, my best shot at winning was to get the deep money player to fold. I
thought he had a flush, but I knew I might have him beat and knew I might be
drawing dead against two players but drawing alive against one player.
This is also an example of how important it is to be viewed as tricky. If I
thought of the deep money player as tricky I don't think I'd have had the nerve
to make that turn bet.
Gary Carson
http://garycarson.blogspot.com
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David Nicoson
[snip reads that explain the play]
It sounds like you made some very specific reads that were right on the
money.
> When the diamond hit I didn't like my hand so much. But, I did think that even
> if he had a flush I might be able to get the deep money player to fold a hand
> like AQ with ace of diamonds (he'd only be getting less than 2-1 on the turn
> call) . . .
I'm figuring 2.5:1 for his call. So he had a bit more than $1500 or
I'm off.
Preflop: 6 x $20 = $120
Flop: $100 x 4 + 350 x 3 = $1450
Pot = $1570
He has $1500 - $20 - $100 - $350 = $1030
If you put him all in on the turn, there's $1450+1030=$2480 in the pot.
$2480/$1030 = 2.4
If your read is that he's very tight as well as predictable, then you
still might push him off TPTK with a big flush draw. (I'm pretty sure
I'd call with that.)From his perspective, I wouldn't expect you to be
semi-bluffing into the dry side pot here.
Gary Carson
On Sep 2 2005 7:45 PM, David Nicoson wrote:
> Gary Carson wrote:
> [snip reads that explain the play]
>
> It sounds like you made some very specific reads that were right on the
> money.
Not really.
My read on the allin player was way wrong. I really thought he had a flush draw
or a JT straight draw, either of which hit the turn.
My thinking on the deep money player never got around to putting him on a hand.
I was just putting him on a thought and I was pretty sure that, whatever he had,
he didn't like the raise on the flop and he didn't like that queen of diamonds
on the turn.
>
> > When the diamond hit I didn't like my hand so much. But, I did think that
> > even
> > if he had a flush I might be able to get the deep money player to fold a
> > hand
> > like AQ with ace of diamonds (he'd only be getting less than 2-1 on the turn
> > call) . . .
>
> I'm figuring 2.5:1 for his call. So he had a bit more than $1500 or
> I'm off.
>
> Preflop: 6 x $20 = $120
> Flop: $100 x 4 + 350 x 3 = $1450
>
> Pot = $1570
>
> He has $1500 - $20 - $100 - $350 = $1030
>
> If you put him all in on the turn, there's $1450+1030=$2480 in the pot.
> $2480/$1030 = 2.4
>
> If your read is that he's very tight as well as predictable, then you
> still might push him off TPTK with a big flush draw. (I'm pretty sure
> I'd call with that.)From his perspective, I wouldn't expect you to be
> semi-bluffing into the dry side pot here.
You're right. A little less than 3-1. He was convinced he was beat and if so
he wasn't getting the right price to call with the ace of diamonds, and with the
king of diamnonds might be drawing dead.
And, you're right about him not expecting me to be semi-bluffing.
There was an earlier hand with him that I dumped second nuts on the turn. I'll
describe that one in another thread later, I gotta get some coffee and go play
for a while right now.
Gary Carson
http://garycarson.blogspot.com
http://www.killtherake.com
http://www.pokermagazine.com
http://www.garycarson.com
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Gary Carson
For the deep money player, my read of him, as opposed to his hand, was right on.
I was just reading an article about that difference between reading a player and
reading a players cards in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
that kind of explains the crazy asian gambler.
He doesn't talk about poker, but about cultural differences between North
Americans and Asians in view of self and logical analysis. I was following the
American mode of thinking about the allin player, and was wrong, and following
the Asian mode of thinking about the deep money player, and was right.
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