Will in New Haven wrote:
> On Jun 17, 10:56 am, "Beldin the Sorcerer" <
Beldin...@verizon.net>
> wrote:
>> Will in New Haven wrote:
>>
>>> Assuming that he would have bet the turn, raising here was a big
>>> error as leaving a good player with lots of chips is always an
>>> error. Had I gotten the rest of my chips in somehow, I still might
>>> not have finished better than ninth but I might have. And he would
>>> not have been around to finish fifth.
>>
>> What did you have?
>> Obviously better than 99 but how vulnrable to overcards were you?-
>
> I had JJ. I had Jacks full of Nines. Obviously, I wasn't afraid of
> losing the hand and could have just flat-called even if I were right
> about his being pot-committed. If an Ace, King or Queen hit, I would
> have ignored it as there is almost no chance he made a higher set.
> However, it would probably kill my action from his Nines.
That depends.
There's a non-zero chance the guy is making some kind of move. Hell, there's
a non-zero chance he has AJ and an ace hitting makes him drool and do
backflips.
It's more likely has has AK or AQ (and with a stack that big, there are many
players who will flat with those hands given an early limper and a late
raiser.
Even if he puts you on AK, there's only a 24% chance of an overcard coming,
and he is likely to discount the Q.
Raising back 10k looks like AJ. So you lose him gobbling back anyway. I'm
not sure I call a reraise there myself with 99, even with only 15k or so in
my stack. Though I'm not sure I raise 10k leaving that little behind, either