Pot odds question from a math-challenged newbie

[chula...@cheerful.com]

I understand that the number of outs gives me a probability expressed
as a percentage. I understand that pot odds are expressed as a ratio.
What I don't understand is how to convert that ratio into a percentage
that I can compare to the number of outs. Is there a formula or a
table?

[GrimJack808]

Its really simple math. You need to convert a ratio (fraction) into a
whole number percentage and vice versa.

Here is an example. Take any method you want to determine your
available outs. You say in your post you understand how to do this In
my example lets say you have a small pair which you feel is up against
a larger pair. To keep it simple you have 2 outs. (No flush or
straight draws)

On the turn you are about 10% to get your out by the end of the game,
and on the river you are about a 5% to get your card. 10% is 1 in 10.
5% is 1 in 20.

So at 5% you need to make sure that the bet you are making is no more
than 1/20th what the pot is, since 5% is 1/20 (5/100=1/20) by simple
reduction. So if the bet is $5 and the pot it 100+, you are getting
your odds to call. (5x20=100) if the pot is less than 100 then you are
not.

But you can do some rough estimating as you typically need to get more
than even money in order to make a "pot odds" call. If you have
determined your outs, calculated your odds and you determine you are at
40% to hit a card you need to win, then take a look at the pot. You
are getting even odds if your bet is 2/5ths of the pot.
40/100=4/10=2/5. But you want better odds than just a coin flip in
order to call. What this margin is, you need to determine on your own,
at that particular time under the particular conditions of the game you
are playing. This is what I call the 'pot odds sweet spot.' It is the
margin I like to see before I make a pot odds call. In this case, I
might want to make sure I am getting good odds and would only bet if my
bet were 1/5 of the pot. So I have a 2 in 5 chance of winning, but
only have to pay 1 in 5. From here its easy to calculate. Take the
pot. Divide it by 5. See if your bet is more or less than this number.

I hope this helps...

Good Luck!!
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[A Man Beaten by Jacks]

There are many. But if you're thinking about the odds of hitting your
hand, the odds against it is the ratio of cards that DON'T complete
your hand to cards that DO.

So to complete your flush draw from the flop to the river, you have
47 cards total that are out there. 38 of them do not complete your
flush, and 9 of them do. This is 38:9 or 4.22:1. On the river, there
are 46 cards out there, 37 of them don't complete your flush, and
9 of them do. The odds there are 4.11:1.

Now to figure out the odds if you're going to see the turn and the
river, because for example, somebody is all in and if you call you'll
get to see both cards, you figure the odds of MISSING on both the
turn and the river. In this case, the chances you will miss on the
turn are 38 out of 47. Naturally, if you do hit, there's no reason
to calculate the river, so only if you miss do you have to figure it
out. Having missed on the river, your chance of missing on the
river are less, 37 out of 46. So you multiply 38/47 by 37/46 and
get approximately .65. This leaves a chance of hitting of .35.
So your odds are 65/35, or approximately 1.86:1. So if the all-in
bet is laying you 1.86:1 or better odds, you call, and if not, you
fold. There are no implied odds in this situation or possibility of
getting any more or less so if you have the proper odds you call
and if you don't you fold period.

(There might be some situations where you believe the opponent
has a smaller flush draw or even a straight flush draw through some
phenomenal read and/or ESP and in that case your calculations
might differ, but your decision would still be tightly bound to the
odds and outs; there's no proper choice but what the math says.)

There are plenty of tables out there. If you Google odds outs poker
you will come up with mountains.

http://www.texasholdem-poker.com/odds_chart.php

The charts in the back of Super/System are also very good.

[qqqxxxyyyzzz2000]

On 6 Jan 2006 09:52:11 -0800, chula...@cheerful.com wrote:

If you're math challenged then do it the other way round. Number of
unknown cards less number of outs divided by number of outs. Much
easier to compare ratio to ratio.