DONK MOVE?

[Mossingen]

I've been playing some $1-2 NLHE (live) lately and played a hand last night
on which I would like some feedback. Here is the scenario. I am in middle
position with 6s-7s and call the $2. LP player calls as do about 4-5 others
which is typical for the game. The button makes it $25. Folded around to
me. Stacks are all relatively equal, LP and I have about $300 and the
button has $400.

Here is what I know about this player. He is a young guy, plays sold and
tight, but aggressive with big hands. He has a betting pattern where he
will raise to $6 or $12 with hands like AQ or 10-10, but when he bets $25,
it is almost pure that he has AA or KK, not less that JJ in that spot, but
most likely AA or KK. He is capable of making positional/button moves like
that, but it's never $25. When he bets $25 he is superstrong. I pondered
this as I looked down at 6s-7s. Out of the corner of my eye, I saw that the
LP player was going to call. Since it would be three of us, I called the
$25.

The flop was the gorgeous 6-6-7. The betting went about you'd think. On
the river he smelled a rat and I had to figure out how much he would call.
I bet $80 on the river and he did call after some thought.

The fact that the play actually worked that time is what got me to thinking
about it. Here are my questions:

1. In that situation with TWO players in the hand (just assume that you
know you will get 2 or more players in the hand), is calling a big raise
with 6s-7s sound when you know (just assume that you know) that the button
has KK or AA? Multi-way, I would think the play would be OK.

2. What about headsup with the button when you have 6s-7s and you know that
the button has KK or AA? HU it seems like a donk move, but I don't know how
to really analyze it. I suppose that the other supposition we can make is
that if you hit your hand, the button will pay you off his stack or a
significant part thereof.

[Will in New Haven]

If the stacks are deep enough, sure. However, multi-way introduces
complications.

>
> 2.  What about headsup with the button when you have 6s-7s and you know that
> the button has KK or AA?  HU it seems like a donk move, but I don't know how
> to really analyze it.  I suppose that the other supposition we can make is
> that if you hit your hand, the button will pay you off his stack or a
> significant part thereof.

Needing multiple opponents is more in line with limit thinking.
Headsup is fine. Headsup in position is finer.

--
Will in New Haven

[ramashiva]

I think the rule of thumb here is that you need implied odds of about
30 to 1 to call a raise when you are facing AA or KK. Sure, you are
only about a 4 to 1 dog, but the preflop raiser will make it very
expensive for you if you flop a draw.

This implies that both you and the raiser should have stacks of at
least about $700 to call a preflop raise of $25 with a hand like 76
suited. Of course there is a metagame aspect, in that the players at
the table see you are not going to fold a $2 call to a big raise, and
it also makes it much harder for anyone to put you on a hand when you
make that play.

One additional factor to consider is that you think you had a solid
read on this player, and you "knew" he had AA or KK. This gives you
an additional edge, since he will basically be playing with his cards
face up, as far as you are concerned.

Taking the excellent read into account, I think calling a $25 raise
when you both have stacks of about $400 is reasonable. You came to
gamble, didn't you?


William "The Life" Coleman (ramashiva)

[Pepe Papon]

On Wed, 23 May 2012 18:08:28 -0500, "Mossingen" <jhan...@cox.net>
wrote:

Your stack is about $300, which represents the most you can win in a
2-way pot. It costs you $23 to call. Harrington's rule of thumb,
IIRC, was that you need at least 20-1 or 25-1 implied odds to make it
profitable to call with suited connectors. And that assumes you're
in position. You would need stacks of at least $460 to make the call
if you believe Harrington.

[Will in New Haven]

On May 24, 3:44 am, Pepe Papon <hitmeis...@mindspring.com> wrote:
> On Wed, 23 May 2012 18:08:28 -0500, "Mossingen" <jhanki...@cox.net>

A lot depends on how your opponent is going to play the hand. It is a
truism that implied odds plays depend on your opponent stubbornly
putting in all, or at least enough, of his chips if you beat him. This
also depends on his having a big enough hand to do that. So then you
don't want an opponent who will have AK or similar and, having missed
the flop, not give you any action.

However, especially if you are in position, you can win a lot of
smaller pots with air against someone who plays too cautiously,
perhaps with that missed AK. And there are tons of opponents who will
give you the correct odds to draw when what you have is a draw. So I
think anything over twelve to one is fine at a normal 1/2 table.

I called a raise to ten with 87s at Foxwoods on Sunday. There were
three of us in the pot and the original raiser bet twelve into a $33
pot. I had a flush draw and I called, the other guy folded. So the pot
is $57 and I miss on the turn and he _says_ "same bet," as if it were
a sane thing to do. So the pot is $81 (minus rake) and I make my
flush. He bets twelve again and calls a raise to fifty-two. I might
have been able to get more out of him on the river. If he's going to
fold to the raise on the river, calling his original bet isn't so good
but he really _wants_ to see that I sucked out on him, wants to
treasure his grievance.

--
Willy "The Lamb" Reich

[DELETETHIS]

I think you need two other callers and never want to be there heads up -
If you want to gamble the 3 way is ok - so i suppose it depends on what
the others players will do.

[Will in New Haven]

On May 24, 7:12 pm, DELETETHIS <"minus200(DELETETHIS)"@bellsouth.net>
wrote:

> I think you need two other callers and never want to be there heads up -
> If you want to gamble the 3 way is ok - so i suppose it depends on what
> the others players will do.

Why do you need any other callers? Isn't this limit poker thinking. If
the effective stacks are big enough, aren't you getting good enough
odds? Why complicate life because someone might have a better flush
draw or raise when the original raiser bet small enough for you to
draw?