Over/Under on Deaths (Estimate)
NolanDalla
This post is not intended to trivialize the loss of life or make a "game" out
of estimating the number of deaths caused in yesterday's tragedies.
However, it occured to me that we (the gambling community) are in a unique
position to offer some kind of credible estimate as to the total number of
casualties. After all, this is the kind of work we do for a living. The
media, nor any public officials, to date, have addressed this subject with any
resolve. All we have heard is "thousands" of deaths. Nothing more. We may
not know the actual numbers for days. I've been glued to coverage of these
events since Hour One.
Based on reports and juggling some numbers, what follows is my "best guess"
estimate as to the number of total deaths, as of 3:15 pm EST, on Wednesday.
ESTIMATE OF DEATHS:
World Trade Center Complex -- 50,000 total employees.
~40,000 of these work inside one of the two towers. Majority of these
employees work the 9-5 shift. Of these employees, a fraction were on vacation,
on sick leave, were out of the office due to other matters, were late for work,
and so forth. I estimate building(s) occupancy at the time of first impact was
roughtly 75 percent. That's 30,000 workers inside two buildings. I make this
estimate based on presumed activity at 9:00 am on a normal workday and the
close connection of this building to the financial markets and their rigid
hours of operation.
(NOTE: Assumes number of employees is roughly equal between the two
structures)
TOWER 1 (first building hit): 15,000 employees inside building at time of
first impact. Aircraft hit at the 80th floor (estimated). 110 stories in
building.
-- Floors 80-110 presumed to all be dead due to no viable escape routes to
lower floors. Hence ~4,050 deaths.
-- Floors 1-79 had opportunity to evacuate. Evacuation time was roughly one
hour. 80 percent presumed to evacuate successfully given the window of
opportunity. 20 percent were unsuccessful. Explanation -- 20 percent stay in
building, are immobilized, or are unable get out. (20 percent of 10,050 = 2010
deaths.
DEATHS FROM TOWER 1: 4050 + 2010 = 6060 (estimated)
TOWER 2 (second building hit): 15,000 employees inside building at time of
second impact. Aircraft hit at the 60th floor (estimated). 110 stories in
building.
-- Floors 60-110 presumed to all be dead due to no viable escape routes to
lower floors. Hence 8,250 deaths.
-- Floors 1-59 had opportunity to evacuate. Evacuation time was roughly thirty
minutes (second building hit collpased first). Given less window of
opportunity, only 60 percent presumed to evacuate successfully. 40 percent
were unsuccessful. Explanation -- 40 percent stay in building, are
immobilized, or are unable get out. 40 percent of 6740 = 2,696 deaths.
DEATHS FROM TOWER 2: 8250 + 2696 = 10,946 (estimated)
TOTAL DEATHS FROM TWO TOWERS = 16,996 (estimated)
MISC: Add firefighters, police, bystanders, and other casualties in the
immediate area (500 estimated)
(NOTE 1: Does not include associated deaths caused by shock of tragedy)
(NOTE 2: Assumes few deaths inside World Trade Center 7 building, which was
completely evacuated at time of collapse)
TOTAL DEATH TOLL FROM NEW YORK: 17,496
PENTAGON DEATH TOLL: 800 deaths believed to be way too high. In fact, this
estimate is off by a mile. I estimate figure closer to ~150 based on
eyewitness reports and my immediate proximity to the area. Hence, 150 Pentagon
deaths.
AIRPLANES DEATH TOLL: 285 dead according to reports.
TOTAL TOLL OF TRAGEDY: 18,581 estimated deaths
-- Nolan Dalla
NolanDalla
-- Nolan Dalla
John Harkness
There's a problem with these calculations, which is that a lot of
people started evacuating the second tower when the first tower was
hit -- I saw a fellow on Today this morning who'd been on the 102
floor of Tower 2 and his office immediately evacuated -- they were in
stairwells the 70s when the plane hit Tower 2, and they got out.
John Harkness
DS
>Make that 17,831 (accidental math error)
No, the error is in your judgement and lack of reasoning.
Did you really think that this would be beneficial to anyone or is
this something you should have kept to yourself, hmm?
NolanDalla
I considered adding news caveats that could significantly alter some of the
figures in the progression.
You are presuming the evacuation of both towers proceeded in a more optimistic
fashion. My counterargument to your contention -- that the numbers from
Building 2 may be much lower than my estimate -- results from reports that many
workers stayed in the building (#2) to watch the horror of Building #1 from
their windows. There were no reports of airliners or terrorism in the fateful
first thirty minutes. Surely some people got out, but there was no word of a
massive evacuation of BOTH buildings. In fact, one report stated workers in
Building #2 were asked to stay in the building, fearing chaos on the streets
below from panic and EMR vehicles and personnel.
Assumming you are correct, however, I would only downgrade the estimate by a
thousand or two.
Finally, this exhange may actually reslt in a revised estimate based on
additional input and news. I still think the 17,000 number will ultimately be
close within about a 20 percent margin of error.
-- Nolan Dalla
A. Prock
>
>TOTAL TOLL OF TRAGEDY: 18,581 estimated deaths
I'll take the under for 10 units.
- Andrew
NolanDalla
>Did you really think that this would be beneficial to anyone or is
>this something you should have kept to yourself, hmm?
People react differently to tragedy. If you prefer to climb into bed, turn out
the lights, and throw a blanket over your head and not look at the personal,
emotional, and economic scope of this tragedy, no one denies your right to do
so.
However, when a tragedy occurs, I believe information (even estiamtes) are
crucial. I WANT to know the social and economic impacts of this disaster.
Many experts are doing a very good job of ennunciating these issues. However,
no one dares to issue an estimated death toll.
If you think my estimate was out of line, I suspect you prefer silence,
instead. You might be advised that reading a poker newsgroup may not be the
best way to show your concern for the victims.
-- Nolan Dalla
JPJ1232
>However, it occured to me that we (the gambling community) are in a unique
>position to offer some kind of credible estimate as to the total number of
>casualties.
===========================
Your post gets my vote for the sickest post in rgp history.
Were you drunk when you wrote it?
Dennis Altman
I think I would lower your estimate by 50% for building two as I would hope the
evacuation procesdures would of started as soon as tower one was hit. Just the
danger of fire spreading from building 1 to 2 should of been a reason to start
evacuation immediately.
--
Sincerely,
Dennis Altman
Wedmart.com
http://www.wedmart.com
888-802-2229
Please send paypal payments to auct...@wedmart.com
m...@acm.org
> ***********************************************************************
> This post is not intended to trivialize the loss of life or make a "game" out
> of estimating the number of deaths caused in yesterday's tragedies.
> However, it occured to me that we (the gambling community) are in a unique
> position to offer some kind of credible estimate as to the total number of
> casualties. After all, this is the kind of work we do for a living. The
> media, nor any public officials, to date, have addressed this subject with any
> resolve. All we have heard is "thousands" of deaths. Nothing more. We may
> not know the actual numbers for days. I've been glued to coverage of these
> events since Hour One.
I would guess that FEMA and related agencies have fairly accurate
models for this kind of estimation. But if I was a government official
I think I'd use those to plan my recovery efforts but not broadcast
them very far. People are distraught and upset at the moment. Blunt
appraisal of the situation isn't what most people need to heal.
I would also guess that of the people to survive this horror almost
all of them are outside of the 4 block radius of the WTC. The rescue
efforts that are going on now will only recover a small number of
humans. But broadcasting that information would also undermine
general morale and really steal the thunder from the rescue crews who
are out there putting their lives on the line.
> World Trade Center Complex -- 50,000 total employees.
> ~40,000 of these work inside one of the two towers. Majority of these
> employees work the 9-5 shift. Of these employees, a fraction were on vacation,
> on sick leave, were out of the office due to other matters, were
> late for work,
You might want to recheck the employees/building number. I've heard
40k - 50k listed as the number of employees of thw WTC (which inlcudes
7 buildings although the towers are a large percentage of that) but
early on one of the WTC officials claimed that on the order of 10K
would at work on a Tuesday in one tower. You also need to add to that
people visiting the building.
There is some data on http://www.panynj.gov/wtc/wtccomplex.htm#facts.
Given a floor size of 50000SF if we assume there are 10K employees in
the building we come out with about 550SF/employee. That seems a
little high but the 225SF/employee that 20000 employees/building would
imply seems way to low to me.
> TOTAL TOLL OF TRAGEDY: 18,581 estimated deaths
I came up with a number close to 10k when I did a similar analysis.
Its pretty grim. I think the city officials are just trying to manage
the horror of the event by saying "thousands".
One thing I havn't heard mentioned yet is if anybody has been able to
determine if the airplanes carried any biological or chemical agents.
I heard one short blurb about the CDC HQ being evac'd and about a CDC
crew heading to NY but nothing else. I find this silence on such a
critical issue expected but frightening.
mph
Jonathan Kaplan
JPJ, you havent read many RGP posts, i am guessing.
Jonathan
no matter where you go, there you are...
William Bradley
immediately, but I don't think this was the case.
A news story here in Vancouver related that a son had called his mother on
her cell phone after the first crash because she worked in the South Tower.
She answered the phone and told her son she was fine and that she and her
co-workers were standing at the window watching the wreckage in the North
Tower. At that instant her cell phone went dead as the second plane crashed
into the South Tower. This sounds to me like at least some people didn't see
the need to evacuate.
"Dennis Altman" <den...@wedmart.com> wrote in message
news:3B9FCB1F...@wedmart.com...
Jekke, Just Jekke
>Make that 17,831 (accidental math error)
>
>-- Nolan Dalla
I've got to go under and *way* under. The first plane hit the WTC at
8:45 AM, which means that most 9 to 5ers weren't there yet. Both
towers were evacuated when the first tower was hit, so a fair number
of workers never ENTERED the second tower. Ground floor security would
have been the first to know about an evacuation and no one would have
gotten in after that point.
I'm guessing between 5,000 and 6,000 dead when we have a firm number.
--Jekke
===
Beyond the River of the Blessed,
there we sat down, yea, we wept,
when we remembered Avalon.
Our swords were shattered in our hands
and we hung our shields on the oak tree.
The silver towers were fallen,
into a sea of blood.
How many miles to Avalon?
None, I say, and all.
The silver towers are fallen. --Zelazny
Mfankhona
>
Its a natural curiosity to want to know this number -its probably one of the
first thoughts that comes to peoples minds. Although Nolla tried to bring up
the subject of estimating the number of deaths in a serious manner - his
unfortunate use of the term "over/under" gave his post a glib tone to it. The
term is exactly what an estimate is,but we on rgp/gambling are used to using it
in a much different setting. Im sure Nolla meant no harm. (and i think and
hope his estimate is at least 2 times to high.)
Jaeger T. Cat
news:20010912161015...@mb-mu.aol.com:
> ***********************************************************************
>
> This post is not intended to trivialize the loss of life or make a
> "game" out of estimating the number of deaths caused in yesterday's
> tragedies.
>
> However, it occured to me that we (the gambling community) are in a
> unique position to offer some kind of credible estimate as to the total
> number of casualties. After all, this is the kind of work we do for a
You're not unique. There's a thriving estimate pool going
on right now in alt.tasteless.
______________________________________________________________________
Posted Via Uncensored-News.Com - Still Only $9.95 - http://www.uncensored-news.com
With Seven Servers In California And Texas - The Worlds Uncensored News Source
Sean Duffy
>World Trade Center Complex -- 50,000 total employees.
>~40,000 of these work inside one of the two towers. Majority of these
>employees work the 9-5 shift. Of these employees, a fraction were on vacation,
>on sick leave, were out of the office due to other matters, were late for work,
>and so forth. I estimate building(s) occupancy at the time of first impact was
>roughtly 75 percent. That's 30,000 workers inside two buildings.
I think this estimate is too high; I think I heard more estimates of
20,000 than 30,000.
>TOWER 1 (first building hit): 15,000 employees inside building at time of
>first impact. Aircraft hit at the 80th floor (estimated). 110 stories in
>building.
>-- Floors 80-110 presumed to all be dead due to no viable escape routes to
>lower floors. Hence ~4,050 deaths.
First, I'm pretty sure that the upper most floors don't have offices.
I forget the exact floor but I believe that the uppermost ~15-18
floors don't have offices. Second, I don't believe that the plane
plowed through the entire building, so it's conceiveable that people
from the upper floors could have escaped.
>-- Floors 60-110 presumed to all be dead due to no viable escape routes to
>lower floors. Hence 8,250 deaths.
The plane that hit the second tower only appeared to hit one corner,
so again I think it would be possible for people from above to
evacuate.
>-- Floors 1-59 had opportunity to evacuate. Evacuation time was roughly thirty
>minutes (second building hit collpased first). Given less window of
>opportunity, only 60 percent presumed to evacuate successfully. 40 percent
>were unsuccessful. Explanation -- 40 percent stay in building, are
>immobilized, or are unable get out. 40 percent of 6740 = 2,696 deaths.
I would also include a higher percentage of successful escapes because
some might have evacuated the second tower after the first crash.
>TOTAL DEATH TOLL FROM NEW YORK: 17,496
I would guess that a lower estimate is correct, and I would
optimistically say it could be as low as 6,000.
Any guess on the movement of the stock market whenever it finally
opens? I'm guessing a minimum drop of 1,000 points, and possibly much
higher.
-Sean
Art Santella
wrote:
>nolan...@aol.com (NolanDalla) wrote in
>news:20010912161015...@mb-mu.aol.com:
>
>> ***********************************************************************
>>
>> This post is not intended to trivialize the loss of life or make a
>> "game" out of estimating the number of deaths caused in yesterday's
>> tragedies.
>>
>> However, it occured to me that we (the gambling community) are in a
>> unique position to offer some kind of credible estimate as to the total
>> number of casualties. After all, this is the kind of work we do for a
>
>You're not unique. There's a thriving estimate pool going
>on right now in alt.tasteless.
Bring the question to
alt.security.terrorism.
I am sure it would generate interest.
>
>
>______________________________________________________________________
>Posted Via Uncensored-News.Com - Still Only $9.95 - http://www.uncensored-news.com
> With Seven Servers In California And Texas - The Worlds Uncensored News Source
>
STRESS!
The confusion created
when the mind must override
the body's basic desire
TO CHOKE
THE LIVING CRAP
OUT OF SOME IDIOT
WHO DESPERATELY
DESERVES IT!
Mike Caro
In my mind, Nolan's Dalla's post is not sick at all. All news agencies
are OPENLY speculating about the possible number of deaths. It is
appropriate, rational, and humane to think of it in terms of
over/under. Over/under is a real-life concept, known mathematically as
the median, that has been renamed and applied to gambling.
It is a helpful method of evaluating many important things --
including our biggest tragedies. Had Nolan taken bets on the outcome,
that could arguably be insensitive. I actually saw this happen in old
Gardena on the number of deaths in the MGM high-rise fire. It made me
uncomfortable, even though I realized that the bettors were trying to
deal with their inner concerns in a bizarre way. They expressed their
sorrow -- and still gambled. It is an experience I have written about,
because it made an indelible impression on me. This isn't related to
what Nolan is talking about, however.
Nolan is extremely sensitive about people. I know him personally. We
all grieve for yesterday's monumental loss.
Straight Flushes,
Mike Caro
DS
>>From: d...@beridney.com (DS)
>
>>Did you really think that this would be beneficial to anyone or is
>>this something you should have kept to yourself, hmm?
>
>People react differently to tragedy. If you prefer to climb into bed, turn out
>the lights, and throw a blanket over your head and not look at the personal,
>emotional, and economic scope of this tragedy, no one denies your right to do
>so.
>
>However, when a tragedy occurs, I believe information (even estiamtes) are
>crucial. I WANT to know the social and economic impacts of this disaster.
>Many experts are doing a very good job of ennunciating these issues. However,
>no one dares to issue an estimated death toll.
Once again, you have missed the point. I think that it's quite selfish
of YOU (" I WANT to know the social and economic impacts of this
disaster. ") to post these numbers just because YOU want to and are
ready to. There are people on this NG, myself included, that are still
waiting to hear from friends & relatives in the DC & New York areas
and somehow YOU find it OK to publish YOUR numbers only slightly more
than 24 hours after the main incidents.
YOU SIMPLY CAN'T, ARE NOT ALLOWED TO, GET BENT OUT OF SHAPE FOR BEING
FLAMED AFTER SUCH A BONE-HEADED MANEUVER!
Since you obviously lack taste, let me give you the better tact. A
simple message would have sufficed with, "I'm working on an O/U number
for the recent tragedy, anyone who wants to see it or contribute their
calculation, please e-mail me".
>If you think my estimate was out of line, I suspect you prefer silence,
>instead. You might be advised that reading a poker newsgroup may not be the
>best way to show your concern for the victims.
I'm not a religious man, but even I know, "Those that live in glass
houses shouldn't throw stones".
Larry W. (Wayno) Phillips
This is a perfectly legitimate subject to speculate
about- especially considering the numbers being
bandied about on TV every five minutes. Nolan
also put a disclaimer in his very first sentence-
no doubt locating it there so it wouldn't be missed-
to the effect that he didn't mean it in any disrespectful
way.
Wayno
Jaeger T. Cat
>
> YOU SIMPLY CAN'T, ARE NOT ALLOWED TO, GET BENT OUT OF SHAPE FOR BEING
> FLAMED AFTER SUCH A BONE-HEADED MANEUVER!
>
So, you're allowed to get bent out of shape, but he's not.
Right. Gotcha
> Since you obviously lack taste, let me give you the better tact. A
> simple message would have sufficed with, "I'm working on an O/U number
> for the recent tragedy, anyone who wants to see it or contribute their
> calculation, please e-mail me".
>
That's what he did........ if all you read was the header.
Oh, you read the whole article too? Well, I guess since you
_chose_ to do that, you're, hmmm, how shall I put this....
NOT ALLOWED TO GET BENT OUT OF SHAPE AFTER SUCH A BONE-HEADED MANEUVER!
Yup, that worked nicely.
RGP is just like TV.... if you don't like what's on, change the
channel. If you don't like the header, don't read the article.
Unless this is part of the New World Order I was afraid of, and
you're the Thought Police.
newgca
hasn't any. This is indeed the sickest post ever! new...@aol.com
"JPJ1232" <jpj...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:20010912165057...@nso-cs.aol.com...
Larry W. (Wayno) Phillips
>I think that it's quite selfish
>of YOU (" I WANT to know the social and economic impacts of this
>disaster. ") to post these numbers just because YOU want to--
Huh? Everybody in the country
is speculating about the social and economic impacts
of this disaster.
How do you get to "selfish" from here?
>There are people on this NG, myself included, that are still
>waiting to hear from friends & relatives in the DC & New York areas
Yeah- I'm one of 'em. So what? Probably Nolan knows
people involved too.
>and somehow YOU find it OK to publish YOUR numbers only slightly more
>than 24 hours after the main incidents.
You better call CNN and complain then, because they're
speculating about these numbers right now, as I write this.
>
>YOU SIMPLY CAN'T, ARE NOT ALLOWED TO, GET BENT OUT OF SHAPE FOR BEING
>FLAMED AFTER SUCH A BONE-HEADED MANEUVER!
He's not "allowed"? Okay.
>Since you obviously lack taste, let me give you the better tact. A
>simple message would have sufficed with, "I'm working on an O/U number
>for the recent tragedy, anyone who wants to see it or contribute their
>calculation, please e-mail me".
Now THIS would have been truly tasteless.
Go back and reread the first sentence in his original post.
>>If you think my estimate was out of line, I suspect you prefer silence,
>>instead. You might be advised that reading a poker newsgroup may not be the
>>best way to show your concern for the victims.
>
>I'm not a religious man, but even I know, "Those that live in glass
>houses shouldn't throw stones".
Nice maxim. How it applies here is a mystery,
but it's a nice maxim.
Jonathan Kaplan
>
>Any guess on the movement of the stock market whenever it finally
>opens? I'm guessing a minimum drop of 1,000 points, and possibly much
>higher.
>
>-Sean
yeah, Sean, i have a guess for you.
if the NYSE opens thursday (and all other US equity markets open, except for
maybe the AMEX, which is physically right in the shadow of the WTC?), the
opening will be taken badly. that is what fear does to markets. terrorism
creates fear in many ways. so the pressure will be to the sell side. 400-700
points down on the DowJonesIndu is a reasonable range, with the NASDAQ down
less, depending.
i think this opening situation (all opening tomorrow, thursday), is very
unlikely to happen, the NYSE looks still buried in?
maybe this is 0-5%.
if the NYSE cant open thursday, but other equity markets (notably NASDAQ) DO
open, then i think the opening will be worse than that. modern markets dont like
disconnection like that, and react poorly to the perception. the Nasdaq could be
down 10% quite easily. this opening situation is also quite unlikely, but
possible,
maybe 5-10% to happen.
if the US equity markets wait until friday to open, but all do open, i think the
opening selloff will be less dramatic, perhaps only 80% previously predicted
(for a full opening on thursday). 300 points down on the DOW, or a bit more, on
the opening, same kind of percentage in the NDX.
maybe this opening situation is 15% to happen.
a non-NYSE opening on friday, with other markets opening, will not be perceived
quite so badly by the markets that DO open. say, NDX down 6%. this opening
scenario is quite likely, i think, cause the NDX has been looking (in the last
few years) to make the NYSE look "bad", and the NYSE might still be buried in
rubble, it's employees unable to get to work. those NASDAQ dealers are sharks.
this opening situation is perhaps 25% to occur.
if all markets wait until monday to open, and all open together (and i assume
that the NYSE would be unburied after that much time to remove the rubble, etc.,
so this is the rest of the opening possibilities percentage, i think), then the
market may not sell off at all. (although, it might still be a bad opening, the
markets ALWAYS "might" do ANYTHING.)
but, by then, much of our communal fear will have turned into "resolve", and
market type fear will alter like this as well, caught up in the tide of emotion.
the volatility will be huge, whenever we open.
cause in all of these scenarios, the uncertainty is very very high.
BUT, regardless how the market first reacts to this news, it will quickly bounce
back, maybe even that day,
and soon, it will be up, and heading higher.
furthermore, the bear market in stocks is about to end.
the attack itself will affect a few businesses (most notably broker-type), but
not very many, and this attack doesnt do anything real to the economy. so, the
action is all about perception. like usual.
bear markets end in maximal fear, minimal discounting of future good prospects.
nothing can coalesce that fear more than a horrific, national, yet personal,
event like this.
put another way, all the fraidy cats will sell soon, and then, there will be no
one left to sell, and then, the market will go up.
you heard it here....
there are alot of examples for this type of fear/resolve thinking in the market,
and plenty of times when the market faced huge bad events poorly at the start,
but ran up immediately after.
i think this will be one of those times.
Jonathan
(a note for anyone still reading. there is a rule on the NYSE that the market
will not be closed for more than 4 days in a row, something like that. that rule
was instituted after WW1. the reason for that rule is, when the first world war
started, the NYSE closed the market immediately, for months. the leaders thought
that the war would be very negative for stocks for a long time, and {i figure}
the leaders owned too much stocks to let that happen. so they were afraid to
open the market. when the market finally opened, it ripped up ferociously, the
start of a huge bull market, the feeling at the time being, such start was
delayed for no real reason. so, they decided to let the market serve its purpose
in the future, regardless of external events.)
Jd00123
gives gamblers a bad rep.
AlwaysAware
> there is a rule on the NYSE that the market
>will not be closed for more than 4 days in a row,
I thought this was an unwritten "rule"... and if they open Monday it already
violates that rule technically.. that is why the market is "ALWAYS" open (for a
few hours) the day after thanksgiving.
Joan
Jonathan Kaplan
i think it is a written rule, for the symbolic benefit that accrued from writing
it at the time, (but i could be wrong). either way, it is clearly unenforceable,
in the sense that, who do you punish for violating this rule.
yes, the friday after thanksgiving is always open, for a half day, for this
reason. maybe that specific stupidity is about to end.
Jonathan
JPJ1232
>In my mind, Nolan's Dalla's post is not sick at all.
-----------------------------
Of course not in "your mind" Mike. Your mind also thinks
Cooke was honest in this article.
Guess we now have to add Dalla to the Caro/Cooke list.
Larry W. (Wayno) Phillips
>Guess we now have to add Dalla to the Caro/Cooke list.
As this list grows longer, don't rule out the possibility
that maybe the problem lies with you, and not
"everyone else".
CarpeCards
>gambling community) are in a unique
>position to offer some kind of credible
>estimate as to the total number of
You (and all of your supporters who wrote in saying there's nothing wrong with
your original post) need to understand something:
Just because you have some knowledge that is useful in coming up with a unique
perspective on something, it doesn't mean that it's appropriate.
If I were a doctor, would you like me to post a detailed analysis about how
someone is likely killed when tons of concrete falls on them, with specific
details -- complete with latin body parts -- detailing it?
Or if I am a psychologist, do you want my comments on what I think must be
going through someone's mind when they see an airplane heading straight for
them?
Perhaps my pilot's opinion on what buttons to push and levers to pull to make
sure I hit my intended target? Flaps 30%? 40%?
I personally find your original post, with all the fancy estimates and math, to
be in incredibly poor taste.
To take this opportunity to trumpet yourself, to fill your ego with content
knowing that you've contributed something worthwhile by applying whatever it is
that you know a lot about, is repugnant.
I am surprised, astonished and very disappointed at the list of people who seem
to find nothing wrong with it.
Steve Carbonara
particular thread. However, I know Nolan, and to say he lacks truth,
integrity, or courage is a lie.
I am not comfortable discussing, let alone placing an over/under line on,
the possible "body count" (and any subsequent wagering) from yesterdays
tragedy, but I understand that it will take place. But, that is not my
point. At least Nolan had the courage to start a formal discussion about
something that is most certainly going on, in one form or another, across
the country. Make no mistake, I am not defending him on that point.
Nor does Nolan need me to defend his moral fiber either, but I do take
offense to the slander directed his way. As for truth and integrity, the
poster below obviously has none. And, his lack of courage parallels the same
cowardly attack on our nation.
If it was just left at, "This is a thread that I believe should not be", I
would have no issues. When followed up with attacks on someone who I respect
as an honest person - I have lot's of issues.
No wonder so many here at RGP have no respect for your honesty, integrity,
and courage.
-Steve
newgca <new...@aol.com> wrote in message news:3b9fd...@news.vic.com...
Larry W. (Wayno) Phillips
>You (and all of your supporters who wrote in saying there's nothing wrong with
>your original post) --
>
>To take this opportunity to trumpet yourself, to fill your ego with content
>knowing that you've contributed something worthwhile by applying whatever it is
>that you know a lot about, is repugnant.
>
>I am surprised, astonished and very disappointed at the list of people who seem
>to find nothing wrong with it.
Respectfully disagree. I've watched 3 different network
TV channels now in the last hour and every one of them
had discussions/speculations between correspondents on
the numbers of casualties. I'm not sure I understand why
this subject is off-limits here.
Wayno
(Getting in a pissy mood from watching all
this on TV)
Mike Caro
Yes, please add Dalla to the list, thanks. They're both very honest in
my book, and both have exhibited a great deal of integrity.
By the way, I said several times that I strongly believed the
confidential hand histories should never be used for
non-cheating-related curiosity or for personal gain. So, I pretty much
agree with many of the thoughtful posts in that regard.
Roy is reevaluating our policy and may (along with management) issue a
new one, incorporating many of the ideas expressed here. Online poker
is a new field, and we're clinging to our moral compass as we hack
through undiscovered territory. We do not alll agree 100 percent of
the time on the best policies. But I have told you what I think.
Straight Flushes,
Mike Caro
JackGierC
>seem
>to find nothing wrong with it.
Jaeger T. Cat
news:20010912205422...@mb-mv.aol.com:
>
> You (and all of your supporters who wrote in saying there's nothing
> wrong with your original post) need to understand something:
>
That maybe we're right, and you're wrong?
> Just because you have some knowledge that is useful in coming up with a
> unique perspective on something, it doesn't mean that it's appropriate.
>
If you don't like it, you don't have to read it. If you
read the header of that article, and didn't know exactly
what the article would be about, you need to take a reading
class. If you read the header, and did know what the article
was about, read it anyway, and got offended, then you need
to peruse the Bill of Rights, starting with #1.
> If I were a doctor, would you like me to post a detailed analysis about
> how someone is likely killed when tons of concrete falls on them, with
> specific details -- complete with latin body parts -- detailing it?
>
CNN and FOX are doing pretty much just that, round the clock.
Oh, they're tap dancing around it, but they're hitting up
every guest they can about body count estimates.
> Or if I am a psychologist, do you want my comments on what I think must
> be going through someone's mind when they see an airplane heading
> straight for them?
>
CNN and FOX are interviewing pretty much anyone they can find
for just such perspectives.
> Perhaps my pilot's opinion on what buttons to push and levers to pull
> to make sure I hit my intended target? Flaps 30%? 40%?
>
Almost every major news organization I've seen over the past
36 hours has interviewed professional pilots on just such topics.
> I personally find your original post, with all the fancy estimates and
> math, to be in incredibly poor taste.
>
Then bury your head in the sand, and maybe the evil nasty
terrorists will go away.
> To take this opportunity to trumpet yourself, to fill your ego with
> content knowing that you've contributed something worthwhile by
> applying whatever it is that you know a lot about, is repugnant.
>
As opposed to *your* self-aggrandizing post, filled with
posturing and stupid non-seqitors?
> I am surprised, astonished and very disappointed at the list of people
> who seem to find nothing wrong with it.
>
There's many more important things to be surprised,
astonished and disappointed about right now. Maybe you
need to get some perspective.
Larry W. (Wayno) Phillips
>CNN and FOX are doing pretty much just that, round the clock.
>Oh, they're tap dancing around it, but they're hitting up
>every guest they can about body count estimates.
They weren't even tap-dancing when I saw it, J.Cat.
FOX- this was 5 minutes ago- was comparing
the WTC casualties to the casualties at Antietam
in the Civil War. A 10 minute discussion then
followed about exactly how many people may have
been in each tower and how many may have
been in the first floor lobby. This subject is off-limits
here, apparently, but not anywhere else.
Wayno
CarpeCards
This has nothing to do with right or wrong. This is a simple matter of opinion.
>If you don't like it, you don't have to read it.
No need to get crazy and constitutional. I have no problem with you or anyone
else spewing forth with whatever you see fit. I'm sure you'll recognize my
right, however, to disagree and criticize it as I see fit.
Major news organizations (note MAJOR, not the hype-infused minor ones) are
doing a good job in disseminating information. I haven't seen any interviews
with pilots or doctors or psychologists with anything I have described. For
the most part they're showing those graphic images which we all have burned in
our minds, but that's (preferable?) to the stupefied expressions of the
newscasters as an alternative.
>Then bury your head in the sand, and maybe the evil nasty
>terrorists will go away.
I'm not sure how my opinion on this (or any other potential) thread has
anything to do with sticking my head in the sand. Discussing numbers of deaths
by applying poker principles to it (what's next, a +/-EV discussion on which
tower you'd rather have been in?) is, in my opinion, in extremely poor taste.
That's about it.
There's no right or wrong here, especially since I'm not going to convince you
of anything (and vice-versa). I can see why my opinion may bother you; because
it lumps you in with the rest of the insensitivity being shown in this
discussion.
>As opposed to *your* self-aggrandizing post, filled with
>posturing and stupid non-seqitors?
I may have missed the aspect of my original post that could be considered
"self-aggrandizing"... and I'm not posturing in the slightest; I think I've
made my position pretty clear.
>Maybe you need to get some perspective.
Maybe that's a really ironic thing for you to be saying in retrospect, eh?
Jaeger T. Cat
news:20010912221345...@mb-mv.aol.com:
>
> Major news organizations (note MAJOR, not the hype-infused minor ones)
> are doing a good job in disseminating information. I haven't seen any
> interviews with pilots or doctors or psychologists with anything I have
> described. For the most part they're showing those graphic images
> which we all have burned in our minds, but that's (preferable?) to the
> stupefied expressions of the newscasters as an alternative.
>
ABC interviewed a pliot last night. CNN.com has a section you
can visit right now called "Quotes from witnesses and leaders".
Almost every major site has linked where you can download
spec sheets for the two Beoing aircraft, and the towers themselves.
You've heard of CNN and ABC, right? Sorry to let the facts
get in the way of your story.
>
> I'm not sure how my opinion on this (or any other potential) thread has
> anything to do with sticking my head in the sand. Discussing numbers
> of deaths by applying poker principles to it
This is called analysis. If you watch any of the major
news networks, you'll see people engaged in this activity.
John Fernandez
>From: Larr...@charter.net (Larry W. (Wayno) Phillips)
>Date: 9/12/2001 10:17 PM Eastern Daylight Time
>Message-id: <3ba0157a....@news.cis.dfn.de>
Having spent part of today helping out in the rubble of WTC, it's terrible. The
average death toll people think down there is about 10,000-15,000.
JF
Mark Oldenburg
>John:
>
> In fact, one report stated workers in
>Building #2 were asked to stay in the building, fearing chaos on the streets
>below from panic and EMR vehicles and personnel.
You are correct, Nolan. There was an announcement made throughout
building two after the first was hit for people to remain in the
building. I talked with one such person who ignored the announcement,
he was already in the stairwell. Many others ignored the
announcement, but many didn't and returned to their offices. I would
say 50/50.
On a more personal note my sister normally works in the pentagon 1 day
a week, on Tuesdays, in the section that got hit. She didn't go in
yesterday, it was one of those days they didn't "need" her. Thank
God.
Oldie
Larry W. (Wayno) Phillips
Fernandez) wrote:
>Having spent part of today helping out in the rubble of WTC, it's terrible. The
>average death toll people think down there is about 10,000-15,000.
>
>JF
Shhhh... we can't talk about the numbers here, JF.
It's not allowed-- even by people who are there,
on the scene, working. You can talk about the
numbers elsewhere, but not here.
Thanks for your heroic efforts. You guys (and gals)
are the greatest. Everybody in the country is
pulling for you.
Wayno
noone
number of" is because they are still reacting to what a fiasco it was
declaring Gore the winner in Florida. Otherwise they would be out there
doing what Nolan has suggested that we do here. I am sure they have formulas
and estimates but have decided that looking really foolish already within
the last year was enough.
So they have forced our hand at looking foolish.
My first guess at what the final tally would be was a line at 20,000. I
thought according to the timing of the crime, how many people might be in
the building, and a little snippet from a survivor about it taking 2 minutes
a floor to get down past the 45th floor, that it was more likely to go over
20 k then it was to be under. But that it was not likely to be much more
then that. Considering the scanty info I also thought that it was more
likely to be between 10-15 then it was to be over 20 K.
Today I have seen stories of people making it down from as high as the 102nd
floor. This gives me lots of hope that Nolan's number is extremely high. I
think maybe by at least 50% and possibly (Hopefully) more. Perhaps 5-6000
might be the area of the final tally. But that is the most optimistic
projection on the low side. (I have trouble with words like optimistic and
small in this context).
I am watching the news, who isn't, but it seems that the plane that went
down in Pennsylvania may have had some great heroes abroad. There is some
indication that there was a struggle onboard between the scum of the earth
and passengers onboard and that this is the reason that the plane never
reached it's target. This is a story of heroism as great as any. I am not
sure many of us would have the gut's to display that kind of valor.
"Larry W. (Wayno) Phillips" <Larr...@charter.net> wrote in message
news:3b9fe35a....@news.cis.dfn.de...
______________________________________________________________________
Larry W. (Wayno) Phillips
> what a fiasco it was
>declaring Gore the winner in Florida.
What was that all about anyway-? I'm starting to
wonder why anybody would
want that job...
Asha34
Ashley
Gary Carson
>***********************************************************************
>
>TOTAL TOLL OF TRAGEDY: 18,581 estimated deaths
>
>
>-- Nolan Dalla
I'll take the under for 100.
If anybody wants to try to middle I'll put my line at 5,200
Gary Carson
http:// garycarson.home.mindspring.com
yockey
seriously disturbed. How could you defend someone posting an
"over/under" on this? I pray for you.
jd0...@aol.com (Jd00123) wrote in message news:<20010912185846...@mb-bh.aol.com>...
Jd00123
>I'll take the under for 100.
You going to have to wait for a royalty check to pay off if you lose?
A. Prock
>On 12 Sep 2001 20:10:15 GMT, nolan...@aol.com (NolanDalla) wrote:
>
>>TOTAL TOLL OF TRAGEDY: 18,581 estimated deaths
>I'll take the under for 100.
>
>If anybody wants to try to middle I'll put my line at 5,200
Hmmm, that ones tougher.
But -- again -- I'll take the under for 10 more units.
- Andrew
Paul Falstad
it on TV. But I think we can be a bit more optimistic.
nolan...@aol.com (NolanDalla) wrote in message news:<20010912161015...@mb-mu.aol.com>...
>
> TOWER 1 (first building hit): 15,000 employees inside building at time of
> first impact. Aircraft hit at the 80th floor (estimated). 110 stories in
> building.
> -- Floors 80-110 presumed to all be dead due to no viable escape routes to
> lower floors. Hence ~4,050 deaths.
March USA, which has offices on floors 93-100 of the north tower (the
1st
building hit) reports that 1000 of their 1700 employees are safe
(http://www.mmc.com/). Above 100, things look a lot more grim. But
there is a story on Yahoo FinanceVision about an employee from the
104th floor who
jumped in an elevator with 10 others right away and survived.
see these sites for a list of tenants:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2001/09/11/north-tower.htm
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2001/09/11/south-tower.htm
> TOWER 2 (second building hit): 15,000 employees inside building at time of
> second impact. Aircraft hit at the 60th floor (estimated). 110 stories in
> building.
> -- Floors 60-110 presumed to all be dead due to no viable escape routes to
> lower floors. Hence 8,250 deaths.
> -- Floors 1-59 had opportunity to evacuate. Evacuation time was roughly thirty
> minutes (second building hit collpased first). Given less window of
> opportunity, only 60 percent presumed to evacuate successfully. 40 percent
See this link for a story of a guy on the 92nd floor of tower 2 who
got on the stairs as soon as tower 1 was hit, along with a lot of
other
people.
http://us.news2.yimg.com/f/42/31/7m/dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20010911/us/attacks_survivors_4.html
Gary Carson
I think I might be a little high, you made a good bet.
My estimation technique is interesting to compare to Nolan's though.
I have no doubt my estimate is a better one than his, even though I
didn't do nearly as much analysis as he did.
I just kind of guessed after looking at one peice of date he ignored
-- NYC ordered 6,000 body bags.
NolanDalla
>I just kind of guessed after looking at one peice of date he ignored
>-- NYC ordered 6,000 body bags.
****************************************
That informormation was NOT available at the time of my initial estimate. In
fact, there were no figures to go on whatsoever. I was simply using fractions
and estimates based on early news reports (within the first 30 hours of the
tragedy).
Late last night, FOX reported a NYPA official said there were "20,000"
estimated deaths. That seemed to be in line with my estimate earlier in the
day. When NYC ordered 6,000 body bags, that could just be an initial order, or
because of the human carnage, a recognition that most "bodies" will cease to
exist.
This morning, all the major netowrks are reporting the figure is ~5,000 based
on missing-person reports.
I must say, if that lower figure proves to be correct, I have never been more
thrilled to be wrong about a calculation.
-- Nolan Dalla
*******************************************
NolanDalla
Cooke was honest in this article.
Guess we now have to add Dalla to the Caro/Cooke list.
REPLY: Whatever list Mr. Caro and Mr. Cooke are on, I'd be proud to have my
name attached to it.
-- Nolan Dalla
TIGER123
>My estimation technique is interesting to compare to Nolan's though.
>
>I have no doubt my estimate is a better one than his, even though I
>didn't do nearly as much analysis as he did.
>
>I just kind of guessed after looking at one peice of date he ignored
>-- NYC ordered 6,000 body bags.
>
---------------------
let's see......
nolan's original post was made on wednesday in the mid-afternoon.
the mayor's announcement was made public three or four hours later.
the only place in the world where nolan could have "ignored" something that
**had not yet happened** is in the twisted recesses of carson's perverse mind.
so, as long as we're talking about ignoring things......
hey carson!!
howcum you've ignored the post quoted below?
tiger
----------------
Search Result 1
From: TIGER123 (tige...@aol.comXnoXspam)
Subject: calling a bluff
Newsgroups: rec.gambling.poker
View: (This is the only article in this thread) | Original Format
Date: 2001-09-08 06:41:04 PST
in another thread, gary carson wrote:
>> Let's see, in the gca threads you had Mike Caro and Nolan Dalla
>> on the on the hand and Gary Carson on the other. Whiich of us
>> was right on that call? I think that Roy knowing the identity of
>> the players is an ethical issue. ... Of course, you tiger, actually
>> think that law guy is credible. You know, the one who found all
>> those posts of Barbara flaming Linda Johnson and Badger.
>
>
------------
hey carson!
here's something for you to do with some of your (koff, koff) valuable time.
take a look at the archives of rgp.
see if you can find a public statement by me about gca at any time before long
after caro and dalla withdrew from the project. the only thing you'll find is
my agreement with linda johnson that we are honored to have caro and dalla as
our friends.
by all means, publish your results here.
hey carson!
here's something else for you to do with your (koff, koff) valuable time.
take a look at the archives of rgp.
see if you can find any public statement by me vouching for the credibility of
attorney20yrs. all i ever said was that i was certain that he was an attorney
licensed in california specializing in criminal defense. i'm still certain of
that.
by all means, publish your results here.
and when your efforts go for naught, as most of your efforts do, by all means,
publish your retraction here.
i know better than to ask you to apologize.
tiger
MVANDY222
>
>>However, it occured to me that we (the gambling community) are in a unique
>>position to offer some kind of credible estimate as to the total number of
>>casualties.
>====
You're just about a sick fuck if I ever saw one.
Jekke, Just Jekke
>Agreed, all of those participating in and defending Nolan's post are
>seriously disturbed. How could you defend someone posting an
>"over/under" on this? I pray for you.
I'm sitting just outside the quiet zone in my apartment. Every time I
look down the street out my window, I see the gaping hole where the
Towers used to be. I still don't know how many people I knew and liked
that I lost in the World Trade Center. One former client, run by an
old friend, reports at least two dozen people of my acquaintance as
among the missing or confirmed dead. These are people I worked with,
joked with, flirted with, and had both affection and respect for. My
father and my girlfriend's father were in the air when the towers were
attacked and took hours to locate. I am beyond furious at the godless
cowards who perpetuated these acts.
These are my credentials of grief. I am still defending and taking
part in this thread. I keep hearing numbers being bandied around in
the press between 20,000 and 50,000. Not only is the mainstream media
betting on the numbers, they are engaging in fear-mongering of the
worst sort. The instinct to make news *more* spectacular is so
engrained in their vile, little heads that they do it even now.
Would I have approached this as an over-under line? No. But, it's a
way to open a dialog among people who have no vested interest in
inflating the numbers and a keen sense of estimation and to give
people a realistic sense of the scope of the tragedy.
If 50-60k people are dead as several news outlets reported for the
first two days, then everyone I know who worked in the World Trade
Center is dead. If 20,000 are dead, there are 3:1 odds of their being
alive. If, as I estimate, there are 5-6k dead, there are 10:1 odds of
being alive. Considering that the last number is both far more
realistic and more reassuring, I think that this thread has
accomplished a good thing.
--Jekke
--
"May God have mercy on them. We won't."
--Senator John McCain
HotChineseF
>of estimating the number of deaths caused in yesterday's tragedies.
Oh, no, of course not. Why would anyone think "Over/Under" would make a game
of anything?
"Poker players are the most compassionate people I know."
HotChineseF
a beautiful woman in the rest of his life without paying or using force?
This is not meant to trivialize rape or prostitutuion. It's just that the
poker community, especially those who know ND personally, are in a unique
position to offer perspectives on this.
Jekke, Just Jekke
<Jekke...@from-nyc.co.uk> wrote:
>On 12 Sep 2001 20:21:06 GMT, nolan...@aol.com (NolanDalla) wrote:
>
>>Make that 17,831 (accidental math error)
>>
>>-- Nolan Dalla
>
>I've got to go under and *way* under. The first plane hit the WTC at
>8:45 AM, which means that most 9 to 5ers weren't there yet. Both
>towers were evacuated when the first tower was hit, so a fair number
>of workers never ENTERED the second tower. Ground floor security would
>have been the first to know about an evacuation and no one would have
>gotten in after that point.
>
>I'm guessing between 5,000 and 6,000 dead when we have a firm number.
Following up on my own post:
The roll call of the missing from the World Trade Center is available
now. The number of people on the planes is known. The estimates from
the Pentagon are firming up. The numbers are:
4,763 Missing or dead at the World Trade Center (http://www.ny1.com/)
266 People on the four planes (various sources)
126 People missing from the Pentagon
(http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Sep2001/n09132001_200109131.html)
The upper boundary, then, is 5,155. This is still an awfully big
number, but well below what the panicmongers have been bandying
around.
I can't even grasp the scope of this tragedy yet, not even my personal
tragedy as I look for friends and business associates. But, I do know
that, for all the talk of coordination and planning, the godless
cowards missed most of the people they could have killed. Had the
first plane hit half an hour later (at 9:15,) those buildings would
have been filled to capacity. Had they taken down both towers at once
without an hour to evacuate, casualties would have been close to 100%.
Those planes had a combined capacity of about 1,200 people. Had the
two planes bound for Washington DC hit their more population-rich
targets at peak time, we could have lost another 10,000 people. If the
FAA had not so quickly and decisively shut down the nation's air
traffic, who knows how many more acts of terror were planned?
5,000 people are more than likely dead. With more coordination on the
part of the enemy and less qualified response on our side, it could
have been 70,000-100,000. For all of the media's talk of what a
brilliant, coordinated effort this was, they missed the vast majority
of targets.
Jonathan Kaplan
HCF, have you ever met ND's very beautiful wife, M----?
but then again, he is approaching middle age, just like me, so....
but i get your point, even if i dont quite agree with it.
ND's original post can be seen in a much more benign framework, if anyone is so
inclined. it could be seen as someone in a state of shock (arent we all, to some
degree), trying to re-establish a sense of normalcy in a suddenly chaotic world,
doing that in a forum/community in which ND feels a part. terrorism creates
fear, and later, a sense of community. i think ND was striving for a sense of
normalcy within a community he values, trying to recover from shock.
in fact, i think many of us are acting/reacting in ways that show signs of
shock, and thus, i am giving EVERYONE alot of leeway, the last few days, in how
they are trying to deal with that.
but thats just me.
Jonathan
no matter where you go, there you are...
CardPlayerCruise
>shock, and thus, i am giving EVERYONE alot of leeway, the last few days, in
>how
>they are trying to deal with that.
>
This is a very sensible idea. People are still in shock.
Linda Johnson
Jaeger T. Cat
news:20010913152334...@mb-cs.aol.com:
> What's the over/under on the number of times Nolan Dalla will ever make
> love to a beautiful woman in the rest of his life without paying or
> using force?
>
Last I saw, Nolan's wife was still beautiful.
Linda K Sherman
>
> On 13 Sep 2001 00:54:22 GMT, carpe...@aol.com (CarpeCards) wrote:
>
> >You (and all of your supporters who wrote in saying there's nothing wrong with
> >your original post) --
> >
> >To take this opportunity to trumpet yourself, to fill your ego with content
> >knowing that you've contributed something worthwhile by applying whatever it is
> >that you know a lot about, is repugnant.
> >
> >I am surprised, astonished and very disappointed at the list of people who seem
> >to find nothing wrong with it.
>
> Respectfully disagree. I've watched 3 different network
> TV channels now in the last hour and every one of them
> had discussions/speculations between correspondents on
> the numbers of casualties. I'm not sure I understand why
> this subject is off-limits here.
My objection is to the use of the uniquely gambling term "over/under".
It's not only insensitive and gives very much the wrong impression, but
it's not even the correct term. An over/under is not an estimate of
actual results, and I would expect a professional gambler to know that.
Linda
NolanDalla
>My objection is to the use of the uniquely gambling term "over/under".
>It's not only insensitive and gives very much the wrong impression, but
>it's not even the correct term. An over/under is not an estimate of
>actual results, and I would expect a professional gambler to know that.
>
>Linda
NOLAN REPLIES:
Let's not get into splitting hairs, Linda. This is a "gambling" forum here.
We come to RGP for many reasons, not the least of which is to freely exchange
ideas and feelings on a wide variety of subjects. No subject is off topic.
There are no taboos. You may feel otherwise.
You may also believe some terms, such as "over/under" are uniquely oriented to
promote gambling activities. My contention is that all of life is a series of
gambles. A procession of risks and decisions that ultimately shapes our
destiny. There is no separation beween the two. When I say or write that
"Life is like a poker game," or "We are all gamblers in one way or another,"
and similar mantra inended to establish the link between gambling and life's
more important issues, those are not just words. I believe it. I live it.
I make no distinction whatsoever between games of chance and risk analysis in
the broader range of human events. To me, gambling or poker is not just "a
game." The same principles of gambling that we freely discuss here are
relavent to virtually all facets of daily life. Yes, even terrorism. Yes,
even tragedy and loss of life.
Naturally, you may view RGP in a different way. You might see RGP as a
resource that fulfills other needs in your life -- perhaps for amusement or
recreation. As I have said previously, we all have different belief systems
and feelings about what may be appropriate in a time of national crisis. I am
convinced that instead of silence, clear voices should be heard about the
extent of damage and what action is appropriate in response to the tragedy.
-- Nolan Dalla
lvdlrs
> extent of damage and what action is appropriate in response to the tragedy.
>
> -- Nolan Dalla
Nolan, that idea poses no problem with me. However your title
for the post was poorly conceived. The idea as stated in Linda
Sherman's post that "over/under" is a unique term to gambling
gives the reader the impression of callousness and insensitivity.
It reminds me of the Romans who cast lots for the clothes of
Christ at his crucifiction. And one certainly doesn't want to be
associated with that image.
Gary (...) Philips
TadPerry
>of estimating the number of deaths caused in yesterday's tragedies.
>
>position to offer some kind of credible estimate as to the total number of
>media, nor any public officials, to date, have addressed this subject with
>any
>resolve. All we have heard is "thousands" of deaths. Nothing more. We may
>not know the actual numbers for days. I've been glued to coverage of these
>events since Hour One.
>
>Based on reports and juggling some numbers, what follows is my "best guess"
>estimate as to the number of total deaths, as of 3:15 pm EST, on Wednesday.
>
>ESTIMATE OF DEATHS:
>
>World Trade Center Complex -- 50,000 total employees.
>~40,000 of these work inside one of the two towers. Majority of these
>employees work the 9-5 shift. Of these employees, a fraction were on
>vacation,
>on sick leave, were out of the office due to other matters, were late for
>work,
>and so forth. I estimate building(s) occupancy at the time of first impact
>was
>roughtly 75 percent. That's 30,000 workers inside two buildings. I make
>this
>estimate based on presumed activity at 9:00 am on a normal workday and the
>close connection of this building to the financial markets and their rigid
>hours of operation.
>
>(NOTE: Assumes number of employees is roughly equal between the two
>structures)
>
>TOWER 1 (first building hit): 15,000 employees inside building at time of
>first impact. Aircraft hit at the 80th floor (estimated). 110 stories in
>building.
>-- Floors 80-110 presumed to all be dead due to no viable escape routes to
>lower floors. Hence ~4,050 deaths.
>hour. 80 percent presumed to evacuate successfully given the window of
>opportunity. 20 percent were unsuccessful. Explanation -- 20 percent stay
>in
>building, are immobilized, or are unable get out. (20 percent of 10,050 =
>2010
>deaths.
>
>DEATHS FROM TOWER 1: 4050 + 2010 = 6060 (estimated)
>
>TOWER 2 (second building hit): 15,000 employees inside building at time of
>second impact. Aircraft hit at the 60th floor (estimated). 110 stories in
>building.
>-- Floors 60-110 presumed to all be dead due to no viable escape routes to
>lower floors. Hence 8,250 deaths.
>-- Floors 1-59 had opportunity to evacuate. Evacuation time was roughly
>thirty
>minutes (second building hit collpased first). Given less window of
>opportunity, only 60 percent presumed to evacuate successfully. 40 percent
>immobilized, or are unable get out. 40 percent of 6740 = 2,696 deaths.
>
>DEATHS FROM TOWER 2: 8250 + 2696 = 10,946 (estimated)
>
>TOTAL DEATHS FROM TWO TOWERS = 16,996 (estimated)
>
>MISC: Add firefighters, police, bystanders, and other casualties in the
>immediate area (500 estimated)
>(NOTE 1: Does not include associated deaths caused by shock of tragedy)
>(NOTE 2: Assumes few deaths inside World Trade Center 7 building, which was
>completely evacuated at time of collapse)
>
>TOTAL DEATH TOLL FROM NEW YORK: 17,496
>
>PENTAGON DEATH TOLL: 800 deaths believed to be way too high. In fact, this
>estimate is off by a mile. I estimate figure closer to ~150 based on
>eyewitness reports and my immediate proximity to the area. Hence, 150
>Pentagon
>deaths.
>
>AIRPLANES DEATH TOLL: 285 dead according to reports.
>
>TOTAL TOLL OF TRAGEDY: 18,581 estimated deaths
I didn't like the subject title of this post. It's not something I'd be
comfortable knowing that actual wagering was being done on.
However, I believe the total will be higher than this. One reason is a story I
heard on television news of a lady in the second tower hit. When the first was
hit, everyone in the second tower was told to stay put. She said that most
people did what they were told.
I'm not going to attempt to put a number on it, but it's probably higher than
the one you came up with. Maybe by as much as double.
I certainly wish that none of these innocent people had lost their lives, but
now that they did, what are we going to do? Fight a war with terrorists? Become
better world citizens with a responsibility toward the entire world rather than
just ourselves? What kind of lemonade can be made from lemons like these?
tvp
HotChineseF
A good friend's cousin apparently died in the atttack; he worked on floor 98 of
the South Tower. He was to be married in December. Yesterday I went with her
to the local Salvation Army and spent the day packing clothes and supplies.
So I guess you should add 1 to your Over/Under guess, unless you had him
counted already.
Meanwhile, here's more proposition bets for you:
What's the Over/Under on the amount of time Nolan Dalla will spend helping the
victims of the attacks?
What's the Over/Under on the amount of money Nolan Dalla will contribute to
help the victims?
NolanDalla
>Meanwhile, here's more proposition bets for you:
>
>What's the Over/Under on the amount of time Nolan Dalla will spend helping
>the
>victims of the attacks?
REPLY: Actually I did spend some time at the Pentagon yesterday. There was an
area set up to supply the relief workers with food, drinks, and other
necessities. Civilians are forbidden from approaching the impact site,
although there are many volunteers working at the periphery. From what I was
told, there were far more volunteers than were actually needed and volunteers
are being turned away, a wonderful testament to the outpouring of support of
local community.
>What's the Over/Under on the amount of money Nolan Dalla will contribute to
>help the victims?
REPLY: I sent a check to Barry Shulman at Card Player yesterday. May I now
ask, did YOU make a contribution? I suppose that question will go unanswered,
since you chose to hide behind the cloak of an anonymous screen name.
--- Nolan Dalla
Bad Bob the Albino
Oh damn it people this over/under shit just gives the impression of gambling with the
lives, families, deaths of a great tragedy. I know that is not what either of you mean
by it, but that is the impression it gives to some of us.
I am very disappointed in both Wayno and Nolan for continuing this post. I have tried to
stay away from this senseless kind of shit but it has gone on too long. Please both of
you quit focusing on being right and defending this thread. Step back and read the
thread from the beginning. Then try if you can to imagine being a relative of one of the
multitude of dead and coming upon this thread in years to come. You are writing for
posterity whether you realize it or not.
I see your points and I can understand what you are trying to say but it is just plain
crass! This is not the only thread that is like this but the one that bothers me most. I
consider Wayno a good friend of mine and I am sorry to have to write this but I just can
not stand by and not express my feelings any longer.
Knock this shit off guys!
Sincerely
Bad Bob
HotChineseF
>an
>area set up to supply the relief workers with food, drinks, and other
>necessities.
While youw ere there, did you get any takers for your over/under bet?
HotChineseF
>>the
>>victims of the attacks?
>
>REPLY: Actually I did spend some time at the Pentagon yesterday. There was
>an
>area set up to supply the relief workers with food, drinks, and other
>necessities. Civilians are forbidden from approaching the impact site,
>although there are many volunteers working at the periphery. From what I was
>told, there were far more volunteers than were actually needed and volunteers
>are being turned away, a wonderful testament to the outpouring of support of
>local community.
>
>>What's the Over/Under on the amount of money Nolan Dalla will contribute to
>>help the victims?
>
>REPLY: I sent a check to Barry Shulman at Card Player yesterday.
You're so good at numbers; why won't you set the Over/Under for the 2
proposition bets?
CarpeCards
>We come to RGP for many reasons, not
>the least of which is to freely
>exchange ideas and feelings on a wide
>variety of subjects. No subject is off
>topic. There are no taboos. You may
>feel otherwise.
You know Nolan, having read your stuff for years I feel I've been giving you
far far more credit than you deserve. In general, when someone is knowledgable
about something, it's because they have a well-rounded knowledge/experience
base upon which to build their area of expertise. There are notable exceptions
to that rule, however, and you seem to be one of them because you JUST DON'T
GET IT.
"No subject is off topic. Nothing is taboo."
Let's put aside all the irrelevant consitutional arguments because this has
nothing to do with free speech... but here's a potential future post. God
forbid that a terminal disease ever affect you, but how would you feel logging
into RGP and seeing "the experts" defining and discussing the +/- days you've
got left to live, and the money line on whether you'll make it to Xmas.
"Well you know, Nolan is a tough guy and Xmas is only 100 days away so I
disagree with your -220/+200 and would rather set it at -160/+140"
Can you possibly imagine the horror you'd feel at reading that, coming from the
big, well-respected names on here? The anger you'd feel at the crass
insensitive nature of that post would be well justified.
For those of us here who had family/friends/co-workers/business associates who
perished in this tragedy, to have people apply their analytical skills to jump
onto the correct side of your over/under.... I just can't see how anyone
wouldn't find in that in the worst possible taste.
Larry W. (Wayno) Phillips
>Oh damn it people this over/under shit just gives the impression of gambling with the
>lives, families, deaths of a great tragedy. I know that is not what either of you mean
>by it, but that is the impression it gives to some of us.
Nolan and Bad Bob are both friends of mine.
We're all a little on tilt maybe, from these recent events.
'Over/under' may have been an unfortunate term
to use. But Nolan is an analyst and uses these
kinds of terms frequently- maybe hourly, all day long-
so probably did not assign it any negative connotations
when he used it at the time. Gamblers may assign
it a certain connotation that the term does not actually
possess. Anyway, that's the way I took it- as a mathematical
term- similar to using a word like 'total'. I was not assigning
any other baggage to it. Others, of course, see it differently
and from a different perspective.
Best, Wayno
NolanDalla
>From: carpe...@aol.com
God
>forbid that a terminal disease ever affect you, but how would you feel
>logging
>into RGP and seeing "the experts" defining and discussing the +/- days you've
>got left to live, and the money line on whether you'll make it to Xmas.
NOLAN REPLIES: I would hope and even beg that any doctors, insurance agents,
lab technicians, actuaries, and/or anyone else at RGP that has an opinion that
can be substantiated in a clear manner WOULD post an estimate to this forum (or
e-mail me). I'd love to have an over/under on how much time I have left to
live. Wouldn't you?
If the alternative is to be left in the dark and not told anything about my
condition, I would much prefer to see and read any and all opinions that might
enable me to come to a projection of my fate so I could make plans. If you
know something I don't please let me know.
-- Nolan Dalla
CarpeCards
>lab technicians, actuaries, and/or anyone else at RGP that has an opinion
>that
>can be substantiated in a clear manner WOULD post an estimate to this forum
>(or
>e-mail me). I'd love to have an over/under on how much time I have left to
>live. Wouldn't you?
No, I suppose I'd like to have a proper estimate so that I could plan out the
rest of my life appropriately, but not an "over/under" which in this context is
nothing short of ghastly.
I picture a seedy little bookie's office with its stinky smoky ambiance, and a
little chalkboard with "Nolan +/- 17 days". Then when it gets nearer to the
end, I guess he'd circle it and that would be that.
I think we're both looking at the same thing with a vastly different
perspective.
lvdlrs
CarpeCards wrote:
> I picture a seedy little bookie's office with its stinky smoky ambiance, and a
> little chalkboard with "Nolan +/- 17 days". Then when it gets nearer to the
> end, I guess he'd circle it and that would be that.
No the circle usually means that particular bet has a smaller maximum
amount than the normal betting max. You don't bet much, do you.
Gary (get over it guys put it under the bridge and get on with life) Philips
xmen
me, I have given you way too much credit. You are a one sick dude..
You need to get help.. or rather go and get some help with your
obsessive gambling affliction. So Nolan.. what is the over/under on
the number of people feeling sick to his stomach with your post??
Thousands?? Or rather incredibly, you still don't see anything wrong
with your trivilizing the death of these victims by posting odds on
the numbers!!! Imagine if Bellagio ever had a line on the over/under
on the death tolls?? You think that Casino is not going to get a
backlash??? You obviously don't see anything wrong with it... And that
is the most tragic part of it all
nolan...@aol.com (NolanDalla) wrote in message news:<20010912161015...@mb-mu.aol.com>...
> ***********************************************************************
> -- Nolan Dalla
xmen
> live. Wouldn't you?
>
> >
> -- Nolan Dalla
You still don't get it do you?? You continue to trivilize human lives
as if they are just statistics and gambling opportunities.. Contrary
to your misguided twisted belief, not all life is gamble. Life is
beautiful... life is good.. life is something to treasure.. life is a
gift....
You obviously missed that point.. I don't know which makes me more
ill.. a radical terrorist that blindly kills .. or an ignorant fool
whose view of human lives are no better than that of the terrorists.
HotChineseF
>ill.. a radical terrorist that blindly kills .. or an ignorant fool
>whose view of human lives are no better than that of the terrorists.
Oh, please. I've blasted Dalla as much as anyone for his insensitivity. but
don't be absurd.
DaVoice
1.) # of days this thread will continue (from now) 79
2.) # of people who will be offended by the term "O/U" 40
3.) # of people who will flame Nolan for the thread 60
4.) # of people who will rise to Nolan's defense 163
5.) # of people who FLAME Nolan that actually READ the first post 2
6.) # of people who will eventually just MARK THREAD READ 400
Rick "DaVoice" Charles
"NolanDalla" <nolan...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:20010914154714...@mb-fd.aol.com...
Jekke, Just Jekke
>
>I didn't like the subject title of this post. It's not something I'd be
>comfortable knowing that actual wagering was being done on.
>
>However, I believe the total will be higher than this. One reason is a story I
>heard on television news of a lady in the second tower hit. When the first was
>hit, everyone in the second tower was told to stay put. She said that most
>people did what they were told.
>
>I'm not going to attempt to put a number on it, but it's probably higher than
>the one you came up with. Maybe by as much as double.
This is why this kind of discussion is so important. The media's
portrayal of events is grossly off from the events as described by
people who were actually there.
Both buildings were evacuated when the first tower was hit. Before the
second plane hit, an "all clear" was sounded, telling people they were
safe to return to their desks. A friend of mine was on the fortieth
floor at the time and, not only did he ignore the all clear, he saw NO
ONE going back up the stairs from 40 on down. There was an alleged[1]
eyewitness who said that "about half" of the people returned to their
desks, but this does not jibe with either the facts or common sense.
Don't believe the media until you get a preponderance of information.
Half the time, they don't know what they're talking about. The other
half of the time, they're busy sensationalizing this story for some
ghastly, unknown reason.
[1] I say "alleged" because there are so many people on the news right
now pretending to be what they're not for the sake of the news camera.
Lone Locust of the Apocalypse
>You still don't get it do you?? You continue to trivilize human lives
>as if they are just statistics and gambling opportunities..
You must really despise auto insurance, home insurance, etc. also.
>Contrary to your misguided twisted belief, not all life is gamble.
Life is about taking risks and chances and making decisions based
on incomplete information. If you find the specific word "gamble"
distasteful, you can call it a "risk analysis" or a banana if you
want, but the parallels are clearly there.
-- Z.
____
My parents went to a planet where they have no bilateral symmetry, and \ /
all I got was this lousy F-shirt. [Ruth Colby, Al Heim, & Eric Pivnik] \/
The Baron
> >nolan...@aol.com (NolanDalla) writes:
> >
> >>However, it occured to me that we (the gambling community) are in a unique
> >>position to offer some kind of credible estimate as to the total number of
> >>casualties.
>
> You're just about a sick fuck if I ever saw one.
Okay, explain it to me please. Why is it okay for Bernard Shaw to give
an over/under for casualties but not for Nolan Dalla?
--
J.A. James
(The Baron)
Proud member of: The Radium League
Dedicated Fixer for: Evil People Inc.
Jaeger T. Cat
>>
>> You're just about a sick fuck if I ever saw one.
>
> Okay, explain it to me please. Why is it okay for Bernard Shaw to
> give
> an over/under for casualties but not for Nolan Dalla?
>
Please, don't let the facts get in the way of La Baroon's rant.
--
Eric J. Holtman (Jaeger T. Cat)
http://www.ericholtman.com
PGP Key: http://www.ericholtman.com/pgp.txt
Niven's Law 1a: Never throw shit at an armed man.
Niven's Law 1b: Never stand next to a man throwing shit at an armed man.
Jaeger T. Cat
news:Xns911FD6888CF63...@209.189.121.117:
>
> Please, don't let the facts get in the way of La Baroon's rant.
>
** squish... OUCH!!! as Jaeger stomps on his own dick **
Well, fuck me stupid. I insulted the wrong guy.
My most humble apologies.
Move along, nothing to see here....