Analyze This (be gentle)
Chris Bruno
Blackhawk, CO, this past weekend. 150 players Saturday, 150 players Sunday,
final on Monday night. I made it to Monday 16th out of 52 in chips. Top 27 pay
out.
Despite what seems like a comfortable chip position, I felt like I would need to
stay aggressive. Money cutoff was 27, which was $8.6K at the start of the final
day. Positions 11-30 were all within $4K in chips. (Bad)luck of the draw put me
at a table where I was actually 8th out of 11 in chips. (The chip leader was on
my left with $42K, I had $11.6K.) Blinds were $600/$1200 w/ $100 antes -
11-handed, $2900 per pot before the deal. Blinds go up every 20 minutes, too.
First hand - again, luck of the draw, I'm BB to start.
I look down at JcJd. Chip leader (42K) to my left limps for $1200, folds around
to the button (18K) who also limps for $1200. SB ($15K) thinks for about 30
seconds and raises to $3000.
So right now the pot sits at $7700 plus I would need to call $1800 more to make
it a pot of $9500. If I call though, the $42K big stack behind me probably also
calls which would make the button likely to call, too, just because of pot odds.
I don't want to play a 4-handed pot so I can't just call. I also can't fold
$1800 more into a $9500 pot with JJ (or can I?). So I feel like my only play is
to push all-in. The limpers fold, then the SB calls with QcQs. I had put him on
Ax or maybe a baby pair. I was shocked he had an overpair - why would he entice
the chip leader to call his minimal raise if he had AA, KK, or QQ??? I'm
convinced if I had folded (or called) the chip leader would've stayed.
Anyway, here's the thing. As the cards unfold, I think I lose this hand
regardless of what I did preplop. Flop comes 9c6c4c. If I had just called
preflop AND the limpers folded, this guy still has me beat. If he checks, I go
all in ($8.3K into the $9.5K pot) with my overpair & J high flush draw. He would
of course call with his (better) high pair and Q high flush draw. Conversely, if
he pushed all in, how could I not call it down - again, with the overpair and J
high draw?
I got booted on the 1st freaking hand of the final day. Did I play it badly? Can
you honestly say I should have folded preflop after his raise? Should I have
called and welcomed the limpers in?
I'm hoping I can just chalk this one up to the tired cliche' - "THAT'S POKER!"
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BKCshah
That's poker :)
You were pretty shortstacked to be honest related to the blinds even with being
16/52 remaining. You caught a hand that would be in danger against an A,K,Q on
board. Seemingly figuring that you probably had the best hand preflop and
pushed. What else can you do?
You could fold, since there are a fair number of people limping w/ one
(QQ)representing a good hand (near min raise 20% of his stack) which wouldn't
really isolate out any of the limpers in my opinion. That raise (to me) says
he's playing the pot, doesn't mind callers, and will where the flop leads him.
Hind Sight is 20/20 though.
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KookieMonstr
If it's any consulation, I would have done the same thing, barring any tells I
picked up on coming from the SB. But first off, you must know he has a big
hand. He won't be risking his tournament with crap. And raising the field
which includes the chip leader from the SB means you might have to put it all
in.
You said you were thinking "Ax or baby pair". But I was thinking, "those are
the only two hands he CANNOT have! He is MUCH more likely to want to see a flop
with that kind of holding, than raise everyone in or out. If he held one of
those two, he would have for sure just called out of the SB.
I would have thought, "Theres a pretty good chance I'm ahead, there's a pretty
good chance I'm behind, most likely I'm a coin-flip. But, I have to isolate if
I'm gonna play these pocket jacks, and the blinds are pretty high compared to my
stack, OK, I'm all-in."
KookieMonstr.
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ChrisBrown
I don't think that you could fold that far away from the money and with
such a short stack.
The structure of that tournament was horrible.
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Bankhead
In your position I'm pushing with A,X or better. I can't believe you would
even ask if you played it badly.
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JadeTiger
think that you are short stacked. Anything less than 10 times the BB is
considered shortstacked (you said you have roughly 11k in chips and the BB was
1200.) Now at this point you arent looking for an all-in hand UNLESS you find
one! (JxJx is not an all-in hand!!) I know a lot of you are questioning that but
you have a much better chance pushing it with AK, AQ, KQ, QQ, KK, AA. But again
you arent a place to be putting it all in the BB to a SB raise. You have realize
that the SB has only about 4K more than you so basically is in the same boat you
are. A virtual min raise out of the SB screams AA, KK, or QQ with people limping
behind him. If he has Ax, or a smaller pair, he is either raising HUGE or
limping. This is a sucker bet to draw in only hands he can beat. This is an
uppertier play to lay the Jacks down but its the right play. By no means is it
the worst play in the world to move All-in but it isnt smart. And you dont
really want to limp with jacks..Your choices were fold (the right choice) or go
all-in (the wrong choice but only other alternative).
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Ben
warning bells going off that tell me he wants action.
MysteriAce
"I know a lot of you are questioning that but you have a much better
chance pushing it with AK, AQ, KQ, QQ, KK, AA."
So, you advocate pushing with a worse hand or a better hand, but not
exactly JJ?
On a related note, with 8x the BB in his stack, are you saying that he
should actually pass on a pair like JJ and *hope* that he picks up AA or
KK before he's blinded off, especially when considering that he is miles
away from the money still?
What if the min raiser has AK or AQ (which you advocate pushing with)?
Isn't he still a favorite here?
I think folding is out of the question, unless you KNOW that you are up
against a bigger pair.
~ MysteriAce
"Success is the by-product of ambition; failure is not an option"
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thenutlow
> one! (JxJx is not an all-in hand!!) I know a lot of you are questioning that
but
> you have a much better chance pushing it with AK, AQ, KQ, QQ, KK, AA.
all I can say to this is lol
I sure hope that all the people i play against fold all hands apart from
the above when they have 10* the BB or less. It makes accumulating chips
so much easier.
The problem with posting the results is that the experts come out from the
woodwork and knowing the result, tell you it was a poor move. If you had
said that the raiser had 10/10.. no doubt you would have been lauded for
such a great play.
This is a measly $100 tourney... people dont need to have AA/KK/QQ to make
that move in these tournaments.. especially when they are short stacked...
they might be looking to get pot value out of suited connectors for all we
know.
We aren't interested in upper tier play against lower tier opposition.
Save the 4th level thinking for the WPT.
re-re-bluffing with J6 rocks
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JadeTiger
send off warning bells. Thats my point. I am not saying that if he gets JJ on
the button or in late position and it limps around to him that he should fold or
go all-in, I am saying that in the position that he was in with a similarly
stacked player in WORSE position making the type of bet he did that he SHOULD
lay it down. Most people wouldnt and that is blantly obvious by your responses
but it is the right lay down. The SB would shooting himself in the foot to make
this type of play with Ax or a smaller pair, because with those hands he doesnt
necessarily want to see a flop.
With QQ he doesnt mind seeing flop against one opponent. He figures that with
the size of the pot that he is only going to get called by the Big stack at the
table with a more likely weaker hand or a similarly stacked player with a
hopefully dominated hand like 1010 or JJ. He really is only worried about 2
hands AA or KK. AK is a bit scary but with QQ and not many chips left he will
probably take his shot. See the difference here is the position - Not
necessarily the hand. The problem not only comes with a shortstacked player min
raising out of the SB but also in the big stack at the table UTG to you left.
Thats never good! JJ is a decent but vunerable hand heads up, but it is even
worse 3 ways! you run the risk of a big stack calling off 15K of his chips to
eliminate 2 players and take an even more massive chip lead if you call or even
go all in. You just arent in a very good position to make the that play in THIS
scenario. That is why the proper thing to do is fold and wait for a better spot.
Some of you will jump on the "Better than JJ??" band wagon and I will say to
that --sort of. You likely wont pick up AA KK or QQ anytime soon unless you are
lucky but you are more likely to pick up a hand like AK AQ KQ or 10,10 but be in
a much better position to play it. Poker isnt just about the hands you get. Its
about how you play those hands when you get them.
ChrisBrown
you make some very good points. Must say that i agree with you after
rereading the situation. Most lesser pairs would make a larger reraise as
would Ax, while primarily a larger pair and at best (best for JJ hand that
is) AK or AQ would. This far away from the money and with the escalating
blind structure, I think that it might be worth a call for the implied
odds of flopping a set against an overpair...although now that i think
about it. with his bet size, he definitely isn't married to the pot and
therefore could get away from your set pretty easily (e.g. JAx or JKx
flop...or even J high flop where you give him action...he has to know that
at best he's splitting the pot.)
Good analysis of the hand, although it's not a fold that I'm sure i could
make against an unknown opponent.
JadeTiger
your game to make!
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Suedehead
>
> I got booted on the 1st freaking hand of the final day. Did I play it badly? Can
> you honestly say I should have folded preflop after his raise? Should I have
> called and welcomed the limpers in?
>
It's a tough one because given the situation (big stack in,
raiser in SB) it doesn't look like he's making a move.
My first instinct is to say move-in, try and knock out the
2 limpers and hope you're getting decent pot odds (with the
limpers' dead money and antes) if the SB calls you.
Doing some maths on it (correct me here if I've made
a mistake). Assuming the limpers fold and the SB calls,
I calculate your pot equity as follows (I'm assuming
you meant you had $11.6k before putting in the blind + ante,
giving you 10300 after that):
10300/((2*10300)+1100+600+(4*1200)) = 0.38
If he only has the following range then this makes
moving in a slightly -EV move:
Hand 1: 36.1901 % [ 00.36 00.00 ] { JJ }
Hand 2: 63.8099 % [ 00.64 00.00 ] { AA-QQ, AKs, AKo }
If he can make that raise with anything else, it will
make it +EV. Can the range be any bigger than this?
Could you include TT or lower? TT seems kind of unlikely
given the size of his raise. The most likely case is that
he'll get 2 or 3 callers. I don't think he'd like to play
TT (or lower) from the SB against 2 or 3 callers, including
the big stack. I think if he's going to raise with TT in
that spot he'd be raising a lot more to get himself one
opponent at most.
Can the range be any less? I think you can make a case
for discounting AK. He's out of position, his raise isn't
likely to knock anyone out. Again I'd normally expect
AK here to either bet more or limp. I don't know if you
can completely discount it, it would be a bad play with
AK but people make bad plays all the time. I think you
can at least reduce the likelihood of it.
As I think you can make a better case for discounting AK
than you can for including TT (and it was -EV anyway even
with AK), this seems to tip the balance against moving
all-in. If you have a specific read on the player, maybe
he overplays hands, maybe you think he doesn't appreciate
the disadvantage of his position, this could increase his
possible range and change the value of an all-in from -EV
to +EV. As you mention no such read, I'll have to assume
you don't have one, and it remains -EV.
Next question, can you just call pre-flop?
$7700 in the pot, $1800 to call, you assume the other
2 limpers will call if you call, this would give you
pot odds of 11300/1800, or about 6.3 to 1. You're
about 7.5 to 1 to hit a 3rd jack on the flop, with the
implied odds, you can reasonably make a call then and
try to hit your jack on the flop.
Therefore I think calling is the best play, with folding
next and all-in last. I think the difference between
folding and all-in is close though and I don't think
all-in is really such a bad play either.
Chris Bruno
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Joe Long
wrote:
...
>I got booted on the 1st freaking hand of the final day. Did I play it badly? Can
>you honestly say I should have folded preflop after his raise? Should I have
>called and welcomed the limpers in?
>
>I'm hoping I can just chalk this one up to the tired cliche' - "THAT'S POKER!"
I dunno, this is a tough one. And I've read the other responses most
of which say push. Maybe my judgement on this is being affected by
knowing the outcome, but I'm thinking muck'em.
JJ is a great hand for getting busted out on in the first place, but
here you had the chip leader (to your left) limp in UTG, and the SB
makes a modest raise -- totally out of position. What would he make a
raise with that invites callers? Not a small pair, what's he going to
do if he's called with a small pair and doesn't flop a set? First to
act, with the chip leader behind him? So you have to consider that
he's likely to have either an overpair to your JJ, or a hand like AK
or AQ. And your JJ is a big dog to any overpair, and a coin-flip
against AK or AQ (that's even assuming you do get heads-up against the
SB).
So although it sounds wimpish, getting out of Dodge seems like the
right play in these circumstances. It isn't just about pot odds in a
tournament, it's about survival. The table is full so you have quite
a few hands yet before desperation time.
--
Joe Long
jlong (at) rnbw (dot) com