What do I do with pocket aces here think about it.
arlo payne
Think about this one.
I am playing in a $5-$10 pot limit holdem game.
Overall the game is tight.
I have been playing for 7 hours
I have been able to grind my $500 into $3000 but it has been a real grind.
Not much action really and seldom do more than 2 players see the river
I look down and I have pocket aces
First to act makes it $25
A couple of players fold then it is raised to $75
I am the button and make it $300
The small blind folds.
The big blind makes it $700 and has $1900 left
First to act makes it $1800 all in next makes it $4000 all in
This is now by far the biggest pot of the night and I would guess the week if
not month.
Question:
What do I do with my pocket Aces at this point?
_______________________________________________________________
The Largest Online Poker Community - http://www.recpoker.com
johnny_t
>
> Question:
>
> What do I do with my pocket Aces at this point?
If you are properly bankrolled for the game. Call. Everything other
consideration is various degrees of money management that says you are
not appropriately bankrolled for the game.
XaQ Morphy
> Think about this one.
> I am playing in a $5-$10 pot limit holdem game.
> Overall the game is tight.
> I have been playing for 7 hours
> I have been able to grind my $500 into $3000 but it has been a real grind.
> Not much action really and seldom do more than 2 players see the river
> I look down and I have pocket aces
> First to act makes it $25
> A couple of players fold then it is raised to $75
> I am the button and make it $300
> The small blind folds.
> The big blind makes it $700 and has $1900 left
> First to act makes it $1800 all in next makes it $4000 all in
> This is now by far the biggest pot of the night and I would guess the week if
> not month.
>
> Question:
>
> What do I do with my pocket Aces at this point?
The answer you're looking for of course is to fold. Your reasoning is
that because the game is so tight and you've won an amount well over what
you probably reasonably expect to win in a game like this, you should fold
because it'll be a grind/impossible/whatever to rebuy and get back any
losses.
However...I don't agree with this, and I'll tell you why: if you're truly
rolled for a 5/10 NL game then a $500 buyin shouldn't be detrimental to
your roll at all, and while a $2500 win would be very very nice, it
doesn't amount to enough to put you into another money/level bracket.
Next we have the old argument of do you ever fold AA pre-flop, and the
mathematical answer is no. Since we're in a cash game, we should be
making decisions based on math here, since there are no extraneous
decision making forces such as tournament equity, bubbles, satellites, etc.
That said, I just get my stack in as a solid favorite, and let the hand
play itself out.
If a $2500 win in this game is so much that I don't feel comfortable
putting my stack at risk, then I get my money off the table and stop
playing.
---
Morphy
xaqm...@donkeymanifesto.com
http://www.donkeymanifesto.com
____________________________________________________________________
* kill-files, watch-lists, favorites, and more.. www.recgroups.com
ruylopez
On Dec 27 2007 1:29 AM, XaQ Morphy wrote:
>
> The answer you're looking for of course is to fold. Your reasoning is
> that because the game is so tight and you've won an amount well over what
> you probably reasonably expect to win in a game like this, you should fold
> because it'll be a grind/impossible/whatever to rebuy and get back any
> losses.
>
I guess folding is the only answer he could possibly be looking for because call
all-in is pretty obvious. However, I dunno exactly what the reason is. I was
thinking maybe he was getting at something with knowing another player has AA,
if you ever could do something like that.
It is possible to construct odd scenarios where AA has actually the lowest EV on
the table, but it's tough and doesn't seem very relevant:
pokenum -h ad ah - as ac - kc ks - qs qd - jc jd - 6h 7h
Holdem Hi: 658008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Ah 9910 1.51 492114 74.79 155984 23.71 0.133
As Ac 11272 1.71 490752 74.58 155984 23.71 0.135
Ks Kc 126402 19.21 530017 80.55 1589 0.24 0.193
Qs Qd 107561 16.35 548858 83.41 1589 0.24 0.164
Jc Jd 93693 14.24 562726 85.52 1589 0.24 0.143
7h 6h 153186 23.28 503233 76.48 1589 0.24 0.233
_______________________________________________________________
Posted using RecPoker.com v2.2 - http://www.recpoker.com
MrBookworm
>
> Overall the game is tight.
>
> I have been playing for 7 hours
>
> I have been able to grind my $500 into $3000 but it has been a real grind.
35BB/hour profit? Not that bad of a grind.
> First to act makes it $25
>
> A couple of players fold then it is raised to $75
>
> I am the button and make it $300
>
> The small blind folds.
>
> The big blind makes it $700 and has $1900 left
>
> First to act makes it $1800 all in next makes it $4000 all in
OK, AA and KK...
>
> This is now by far the biggest pot of the night and I would guess the week if
> not month.
Doesn't matter at all.
> Question:
>
> What do I do with my pocket Aces at this point?
You'll be splitting the pot about 60% of the time, IF you can put someone
else on AA. The post is gonna be around $8700 if the BB calls. Unless the
pot is gonna be bigger than 9K you can fold. BUT, this is ONLY when you
KNOW someone else has AA.
What if the two EP's have KK and the BB has AK? What if the two EPs both
have AKs?
It's an all-in unless you see someone elses AA. You're way ahead if you're
up against KK, KK, and QQ or some combo of AK with QQ.
Dean
----
DELETETHIS
worst beat is losing to a flush with player holding AA with the right suit
Will_gamble
-------
doggystyle
On Dec 26 2007 11:49 PM, arlo payne wrote:
>
>
> Think about this one.
>
>
>
> I am playing in a $5-$10 pot limit holdem game.
>
> Overall the game is tight.
>
> I have been playing for 7 hours
>
> I have been able to grind my $500 into $3000 but it has been a real grind.
>
> Not much action really and seldom do more than 2 players see the river
>
> I look down and I have pocket aces
>
> First to act makes it $25
>
> A couple of players fold then it is raised to $75
>
> I am the button and make it $300
The first thing you should do is to stop lying. You cannot make it 300 here.
Assuming all the blinds count for a big blind, you can only make it 270. If you
are going to make up a pot limit scenario, please get the math right!!
Second thing you should do is stop making lame posts like this to make someone
think you play that high!
Third. If there is any truth at all in this post , you might consider , that you
are getting cold decked!
Fourth , if you are trying to build this scenario to say that you should fold,
you are absolutely wrong, assuming that you are comfortable with the fact that ,
the game is on the square.
Fifth.. If the game is OTSquare, you can prolly make a decent "save " deal, or
some other insurance deal , that will minimize the risk to you. Please dont make
me explain insurance to you!!
Sixth... just stop...please stop!!
>
> The small blind folds.
>
> The big blind makes it $700 and has $1900 left
>
> First to act makes it $1800 all in next makes it $4000 all in
>
> This is now by far the biggest pot of the night and I would guess the week if
> not month.
>
> Question:
>
> What do I do with my pocket Aces at this point?
>
>
>
_______________________________________________________________
doggystyle
Holy shit!! The tard finally got one right!!
You are actually learning!!
There might be hope for your lame ass yet!!
Of course if you were in the game , you would find a way to get 4000 in here
with the 6-8 off, and claim , "it plays good against aces, cuz I can make 2
flushes"!!
> http://www.donkeymanifesto.com/
_______________________________________________________________
Your Online Poker Community - http://www.recpoker.com
doggystyle
Yo Johhny .. anytime you are in a game with 6x your buy-in .. you are
automatically "properly bankrolled"
You might not have been when you sat down, but by GOd .. you are now!!
_______________________________________________________________
New Feature: Mark All As Read! - http://www.recpoker.com
doggystyle
_______________________________________________________________
doggystyle
Good thinking Einstein !!
A fellow would just hate to get in a spot where he could lose 500 or take down a
11-12k pot
Please , oh please, dont throw me in that briar patch!!
People live a lifetime for a spot llike this. I'll take it every time I could
get it
On Dec 27 2007 1:48 AM, PassAgain wrote:
> arlo payne wrote in
> news:1198734559$108...@recpoker.com:
>
> I would fold.
>
> It's a mind thing with me. I can live with a $2200 win in a tough
> game after playing 7 hrs. What I could not stomach is seeing
> myself go from $2200 winner to $500 loser, after someone lucks out
> on me.
>
>
> > Think about this one.
> >
> >
> >
> > I am playing in a $5-$10 pot limit holdem game.
> >
> > Overall the game is tight.
> >
> > I have been playing for 7 hours
> >
> > I have been able to grind my $500 into $3000 but it has been
> > a real grind.
> >
> > Not much action really and seldom do more than 2 players see
> > the river
> >
> > I look down and I have pocket aces
> >
> > First to act makes it $25
> >
> > A couple of players fold then it is raised to $75
> >
> > I am the button and make it $300
> >
> > The small blind folds.
> >
> > The big blind makes it $700 and has $1900 left
> >
> > First to act makes it $1800 all in next makes it $4000 all in
> >
> > This is now by far the biggest pot of the night and I would
> > guess the week if not month.
> >
> > Question:
> >
> > What do I do with my pocket Aces at this point?
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > ______________________________________________________________
> > _ The Largest Online Poker Community -
doggystyle
The whole post is either a fraud , a troll, or a cold deck
If arlo doesnt get the response he wants , he will simply claim "troll" and
slink away.
On Dec 26 2007 11:49 PM, arlo payne wrote:
_______________________________________________________________
* New Release: RecPoker.com v2.2 - http://www.recpoker.com
Nick Wool
Call? Why?
Do you wait for quads/top end of straight flush before you jam? I dont give a
fuck about what anyone says, I am pushing it all in to either take down this
very healthy pot, or even if one of the others has the other two aces, charge KK
a very high price to hit those two outs. That's not even considerating they
could both have KK, or more unlikely given the action if you get a call, KK and
QQ/AK.
http://nickspokerblog.myblog.com/
_______________________________________________________________
Block Lists, Favorites, and more - http://www.recpoker.com
Nick Wool
On Dec 27 2007 1:40 PM, Nick Wool wrote:
>
>
>
> On Dec 27 2007 6:09 AM, johnny_t wrote:
>
> > arlo payne wrote:
> >
> > >
> > > Question:
> > >
> > > What do I do with my pocket Aces at this point?
> >
> > If you are properly bankrolled for the game. Call. Everything other
> > consideration is various degrees of money management that says you are
> > not appropriately bankrolled for the game.
>
> Call? Why?
>
> Do you wait for quads/top end of straight flush before you jam? I dont give a
> fuck about what anyone says, I am pushing it all in to either take down this
> very healthy pot, or even if one of the others has the other two aces, charge
> KK
> a very high price to hit those two outs. That's not even considerating they
> could both have KK, or more unlikely given the action if you get a call, KK
> and
> QQ/AK.
> http://nickspokerblog.myblog.com/
>
Misread the HH, thought there was still money behind for us to raise. My bad,
Call everytime or give up poker.
http://nickspokerblog.myblog.com/
_______________________________________________________________
Posted using RecPoker.com v2.2 - http://www.recpoker.com
Chandler
>
> ____________________________________________________________________
> * kill-files, watch-lists, favorites, and more..www.recgroups.com- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -
What he said.. The only reason to fold is that you suddenly realize
you are not psychologically equipped to lose your stack. You write
the $300 you have invested in the hand off as the price of a lesson in
your limits and you leave the table right then. If I can't get my
stack in preflop with AA, I'm probably missing other +ev
opportunities.
Chandler
John_Brian_K
KK. Either way you call. In scenario 1 you are still a favorite to
chop the pot and in scenario 2 you are a bigger favorite.
I tried this once. I got slammed BIGTIME for suggesting a fold. No
offense to you personally Arlo, but I am wondering, with your known
backround, if you will get slammed like I did for asking the same
question and MAYBE considering a fold?
Nick Wool
On Dec 27 2007 2:28 PM, John_Brian_K wrote:
> Your up against a suited connector like 8-9 and the other 2 aces or
> KK. Either way you call. In scenario 1 you are still a favorite to
> chop the pot and in scenario 2 you are a bigger favorite.
>
Suited connector? Suited fucking connectors!? Even a complete moron would not
play suited connectors like that preflop. You expect the BB to re-pop an EP
raiser, an MP reraiser, and an LP re-reraiser with suited fucking connectors?
AA/KK, or overplaying QQ/JJ/AK suited.
Opening raiser with suited connectors is not unlikely, but to jam after 3 decent
reaises? On a tight table? You cannot put him on less anything than AA/KK,
with a small possibility of overplaying AK/QQ, unless you DO think that he's a
moron.
Guy in the middle, what suited fucking connectors? reraise to his reraise,
followed another decent reraise, than an allin. You put someone on suited
fucking connectors when they jam after acion like this?
I think we are talking aout a very narrow range of hands here. The BB and
original raiser might be on something like AK/QQ/JJ at worse, while the MP guy
is on AA/KK.
Unless of course, you come up against this gem: in a 2/4 NL ring game, guy at BB
with 77 called 500 bucks allin to an EP raise, an MP reraise and 2 LP allin in
front of him. When he was showned AA and KK, he commented 'I was unlucky, as it
was a great call, because with that sort of action before me, most of the high
cards would be out, and my 77 was a big favourite'. Yes folks, big preflop
raises are always done with AK.
Oh, and didnt he whine when his 7 hit the flop, but was 'sucked out' by an ace
on the river.
http://nickspokerblog.myblog.com/
XaQ Morphy
> automatically "properly bankrolled"
>
> You might not have been when you sat down, but by GOd .. you are now!!
So just to clarify, you're stating that a proper bankroll for a NLHE game
is 6x the buyin?
Just checking.
________________________________________________________________________
looking for a better newsgroup-reader? - www.recgroups.com
John_Brian_K
> play suited connectors like that preflop. You expect the BB to re-pop an EP
> raiser, an MP reraiser, and an LP re-reraiser with suited fucking connectors?
> AA/KK, or overplaying QQ/JJ/AK suited.
I misread the post I thought the 75.00 had yet to act and was trying
to represent a big hand by re raising the EP with the intention of
taking the pot down there, hitting the flop or outplaying the EP after
the flop. I would have expected him to fold.
> Opening raiser with suited connectors is not unlikely, but to jam after 3 decent
> reaises? On a tight table? You cannot put him on less anything than AA/KK,
> with a small possibility of overplaying AK/QQ, unless you DO think that he's a
> moron.
Reasonable.
> Guy in the middle, what suited fucking connectors? reraise to his reraise,
> followed another decent reraise, than an allin. You put someone on suited
> fucking connectors when they jam after acion like this?
Nope misread the hand.
> I think we are talking aout a very narrow range of hands here. The BB and
> original raiser might be on something like AK/QQ/JJ at worse, while the MP guy
> is on AA/KK.
probably a good representation of his range.
> Unless of course, you come up against this gem: in a 2/4 NL ring game, guy at BB
> with 77 called 500 bucks allin to an EP raise, an MP reraise and 2 LP allin in
> front of him. When he was showned AA and KK, he commented 'I was unlucky, as it
> was a great call, because with that sort of action before me, most of the high
> cards would be out, and my 77 was a big favourite'. Yes folks, big preflop
> raises are always done with AK.
>
> Oh, and didnt he whine when his 7 hit the flop, but was 'sucked out' by an ace
> on the river.
lol
TimSully
> Think about this one.
>
>
>
> I am playing in a $5-$10 pot limit holdem game.
>
> Overall the game is tight.
>
> I have been playing for 7 hours
>
> I have been able to grind my $500 into $3000 but it has been a real grind.
>
> Not much action really and seldom do more than 2 players see the river
>
> I look down and I have pocket aces
>
> First to act makes it $25
>
> A couple of players fold then it is raised to $75
>
> I am the button and make it $300
>
> The small blind folds.
>
> The big blind makes it $700 and has $1900 left
>
> First to act makes it $1800 all in next makes it $4000 all in
>
> This is now by far the biggest pot of the night and I would guess the week if
> not month.
>
>
> What do I do with my pocket Aces at this point?
>
> The Largest Online Poker Community -http://www.recpoker.com
You played 7 hours to get to a spot like this, there is dead money in
the pot...why would a fold be a consideration?
Abbey Johnsson
On Dec 27 2007 3:58 AM, doggystyle wrote:
> Yeah , the whole post reeks , of a fraud!!
No shit. Lets read between the lines:
"I'm trying to impress everybody by pretending I play 5-10 PLH. I made the
whole thing up"
(Btw, you're a big pussy if you fold here. If you can't call, then go back to
playing limit poker)
Will in New Haven
> arlo payne <arlo_pa...@hotmail.com> wrote innews:1198734559$108...@recpoker.com:
>
> I would fold.
>
> It's a mind thing with me. I can live with a $2200 win in a tough
> game after playing 7 hrs. What I could not stomach is seeing
> myself go from $2200 winner to $500 loser, after someone lucks out
> on me.
Give up poker. While you are at it, stay in bed huddled under the
covers until you die.
Will in New Haven
--
"Don't worry too much about being bluffed. D*gs DO bite."
_Poker for Cats_ by Feather
> > _ The Largest Online Poker Community -
> >http://www.recpoker.com
Will in New Haven
wrote:
I think the only argument against calling would be that you suspected
a cold deck. However, he has been playing for hours and most of the
money he has on the table came from the other players. Would they have
waited this long to ring in a cold deck?
A Man Beaten by Jacks
>Think about this one.
>I am playing in a $5-$10 pot limit holdem game.
>Overall the game is tight.
>I have been playing for 7 hours
>I have been able to grind my $500 into $3000 but it has been a real grind.
>Not much action really and seldom do more than 2 players see the river
>I look down and I have pocket aces
> First to act makes it $25
>A couple of players fold then it is raised to $75
>I am the button and make it $300
I kind of don't like this particular amount. Seems to give opponents
odds to draw to a set profitably. Of course you can probably get away
from a set enough to cut down that profit or eliminate it. I like a little
less or some more. Kind of an awkward stack size for aces postflop.
>The small blind folds.
>The big blind makes it $700 and has $1900 left
None of that matters at this point obviously.
>First to act makes it $1800 all in next makes it $4000 all in
>This is now by far the biggest pot of the night and I would guess the week if
>not month.
>Question:
>What do I do with my pocket Aces at this point?
LOL! Nice troll.
A Man Beaten by Jacks
>You'll be splitting the pot about 60% of the time, IF you can put someone
>else on AA. The post is gonna be around $8700 if the BB calls. Unless the
>pot is gonna be bigger than 9K you can fold. BUT, this is ONLY when you
>KNOW someone else has AA.
He says nothing about the individual players that would let a reader of the
post make that inference. Some general comments about the game itself
being tight don't really suffice.
>What if the two EP's have KK and the BB has AK? What if the two EPs both
>have AKs?
>It's an all-in unless you see someone elses AA. You're way ahead if you're
>up against KK, KK, and QQ or some combo of AK with QQ.
I suspect Arlo is trolling us again. I can't believe he's serious about the
question.
The Reamer
The folding argument is actually valid - take your money and run. $3k is a very
nice score.
The way I see it, If you are up against 2 lower pairs - Say QQ and KK, you are
67% to triple up to $9K, which also means you are 33% to go home broke. If you
are up against AA and KK, you are 75% to split the lower pair's money.
The math says jam, but folding here might make sense if you want to pocket the
money. I wouldn't go telling anyone i folded aces here, though.
On Dec 27 2007 12:49 AM, arlo payne wrote:
>
>
> Think about this one.
>
>
>
> I am playing in a $5-$10 pot limit holdem game.
>
> Overall the game is tight.
>
> I have been playing for 7 hours
>
> I have been able to grind my $500 into $3000 but it has been a real grind.
>
> Not much action really and seldom do more than 2 players see the river
>
> I look down and I have pocket aces
>
> First to act makes it $25
>
> A couple of players fold then it is raised to $75
>
> I am the button and make it $300
>
> The small blind folds.
>
> The big blind makes it $700 and has $1900 left
>
> First to act makes it $1800 all in next makes it $4000 all in
>
> This is now by far the biggest pot of the night and I would guess the week if
> not month.
>
> Question:
>
> What do I do with my pocket Aces at this point?
>
>
>
_______________________________________________________________
David Nicoson
Call.
If you have something novel to add about folding aces preflop, surely
you could have added it to one of the many threads started by newbies.
doggystyle
He cant make it MORE einstein , he is playing pot limit , and actually can not
make it the amount he states 270 is the most he can put in !!
Bad troll
On Dec 27 2007 11:53 AM, A Man Beaten by Jacks wrote:
_______________________________________________________________
doggystyle
Not what I stated at all!!
Once again , you are dumber than a sack of hammers.
On Dec 27 2007 10:00 AM, XaQ Morphy wrote:
> > Yo Johhny .. anytime you are in a game with 6x your buy-in .. you are
> > automatically "properly bankrolled"
> >
> > You might not have been when you sat down, but by GOd .. you are now!!
>
> So just to clarify, you're stating that a proper bankroll for a NLHE game
> is 6x the buyin?
>
> Just checking.
>
> ---
> Morphy
> xaqm...@donkeymanifesto.com
> http://www.donkeymanifesto.com/
doggystyle
I was the 2nd or 3rd responder , and I brought up the cold deck issue.
This is a perfect time.
Lack of suspicion , and only late in a game can one get a pot this size11k-12k,
assuming that most bought around 500
late in a game is the absolute "perfect" time .
On Dec 27 2007 11:15 AM, Will in New Haven wrote:
> On Dec 27, 9:28 am, John_Brian_K
_______________________________________________________________
XaQ Morphy
> Not what I stated at all!!
>
> Once again , you are dumber than a sack of hammers.
Please explain what you meant by this quote:
"anytime you are in a game with 6x your buy-in .. you are automatically
"properly bankrolled""
Hurry, before I smack you in the templte with one of my hammers.
_______________________________________________________________________
A Man Beaten by Jacks
wrote:
>Will in New Haven <bill....@taylorandfrancis.com> wrote in
>news:2ee5082f-f34f-40ed...@l1g2000hsa.googlegroup
>s.com:
>> On Dec 27, 2:48 am, PassAgain <auto409...@hushmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>> I would fold.
>> Give up poker. While you are at it, stay in bed huddled under
>> the covers until you die.
>> Will in New Haven
>What a nasty reply to someone you don't know, who is only giving
>an opinion to an asked question.
This post needs work. Here, this is more accurate:
"What an accurate reply to someone you can tell is an idiot, from the
moronic opinion they gave to an asked question."
smch...@yahoo.com
hours and you're up 10% is a grind
GrouchySmurf1002
> The folding argument is actually valid - take your money and run. $3k is a
very
> nice score.
Then the argument is to fold the hand before you stick in a $300 raise and
get up if you're content with your day's score. Once you play the hand,
you should see it through, session be damned, unless:
a) you never plan on playing ever again.
b) you never plan on playing ever again.
Alex
On Dec 27 2007 12:49 AM, arlo payne wrote:
>
>
> Think about this one.
>
>
>
> I am playing in a $5-$10 pot limit holdem game.
>
> Overall the game is tight.
>
> I have been playing for 7 hours
>
> I have been able to grind my $500 into $3000 but it has been a real grind.
>
> Not much action really and seldom do more than 2 players see the river
>
> I look down and I have pocket aces
>
> First to act makes it $25
>
> A couple of players fold then it is raised to $75
>
> I am the button and make it $300
>
> The small blind folds.
>
> The big blind makes it $700 and has $1900 left
>
> First to act makes it $1800 all in next makes it $4000 all in
>
> This is now by far the biggest pot of the night and I would guess the week if
> not month.
>
> Question:
>
> What do I do with my pocket Aces at this point?
Why wouldn't you call?
If the concern is for the money you've won, you're playing at too high a
bankroll.
Other than that, what hand would you call with if not AA?
pokerchimp
> Think about this one.
>
>
>
> I am playing in a $5-$10 pot limit holdem game.
>
> Overall the game is tight.
>
> I have been playing for 7 hours
>
> I have been able to grind my $500 into $3000 but it has been a real grind.
>
> Not much action really and seldom do more than 2 players see the river
>
> I look down and I have pocket aces
>
> First to act makes it $25
>
> A couple of players fold then it is raised to $75
>
> I am the button and make it $300
>
> The small blind folds.
>
> The big blind makes it $700 and has $1900 left
>
> First to act makes it $1800 all in next makes it $4000 all in
>
> This is now by far the biggest pot of the night and I would guess the week if
> not month.
>
> Question:
>
> What do I do with my pocket Aces at this point?
OK, already know I'm gonna get shit from everyone but Arlo for this, but
my guess is that Arlo would fold. He described the game as tight, no
action and a grind, yet he is up $2500 (well, $2200 if he folds after
raising $300). AA vs. 3 other players with no ability to effect the
course of play after the flop. I am not a numbers person so i don't know
the odds, but I do know this is not an ideal spot for AA to prevail. In
fact I'd rather have a hand like 9T suited in this spot.
Arlo folds this hand. "Lack of need to burn off all winnings in one hand
when the games speed is slower than the speed of that hand. "
Do I win a prize Arlo?
thumbers on stars, dieseldyke on absolute/vegaspoker24/7, pokerchimp1 on
ftp
_______________________________________________________________________
pokerchimp
> arlo payne <arlo_...@hotmail.com> wrote in
> news:1198734559$108...@recpoker.com:
>
> I would fold.
>
> It's a mind thing with me. I can live with a $2200 win in a tough
> game after playing 7 hrs. What I could not stomach is seeing
> myself go from $2200 winner to $500 loser, after someone lucks out
> on me.
>
You win a prize too. I hope he is handing out prizes. The question is
what ARLO would do. Arlo would fold in this spot for the reasons you cite.
>
> > Think about this one.
> >
> >
> >
> > I am playing in a $5-$10 pot limit holdem game.
> >
> > Overall the game is tight.
> >
> > I have been playing for 7 hours
> >
> > I have been able to grind my $500 into $3000 but it has been
> > a real grind.
> >
> > Not much action really and seldom do more than 2 players see
> > the river
> >
> > I look down and I have pocket aces
> >
> > First to act makes it $25
> >
> > A couple of players fold then it is raised to $75
> >
> > I am the button and make it $300
> >
> > The small blind folds.
> >
> > The big blind makes it $700 and has $1900 left
> >
> > First to act makes it $1800 all in next makes it $4000 all in
> >
> > This is now by far the biggest pot of the night and I would
> > guess the week if not month.
> >
> > Question:
> >
> > What do I do with my pocket Aces at this point?
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > ______________________________________________________________
> > _ The Largest Online Poker Community -
> > http://www.recpoker.com
thumbers on stars, dieseldyke on absolute/vegaspoker24/7, pokerchimp1 on
ftp
____________________________________________________________________
pokerchimp
He made have made up the situation (although I doubt he is trolling). He
is serious about the question, and I am 99% sure that he feels the best
play here is to fold, based on what I know about his philosophy and his
description of the game.
thumbers on stars, dieseldyke on absolute/vegaspoker24/7, pokerchimp1 on
ftp
_____________________________________________________________________
GrouchySmurf1002
> I am not a numbers person so i don't know
> the odds, but I do know this is not an ideal spot for AA to prevail. In
> fact I'd rather have a hand like 9T suited in this spot.
So lets say you end up with KK v AK v AK
Your AA has 78% equity
Your T9s has 19% equity
Or maybe you're in KK v QQ v KK
Your AA has 79% equity
Your T9s has 20% equity
Now lets say you run into the other AA. So maybe AA v KK v QQ
Your AA has 31% equity
Your T9s has 17% equity
Tell me again why you'd rather have T9s?
------
: the next generation of web-newsreaders : http://www.recgroups.com
pokerchimp
Pfft, you guys can't see the forest for the trees. Passagain makes
several valid points, the same points Arlo is trying to make. You can
disagree, but just because you disagree doesn't make him, or Arlo, wrong.
And it certainly doesn't excuse your rudeness towards someone who was
asked for and is voicing and OPINION. They are just more interested in
preserving a good win in a tight game than gambling, yes gambling even
with the best hand, against 3 other hands. If this was a heads up
situation, or even against two players, it's an autocall. But AA is just
not that strong against 3 other hands, and we all know it. I'll leave it
to you number crunchers to post to differences in the odds of AA vs. 1, 2
or 3 other random hands. I doubt the AA is even a 50% favorite here.
thumbers on stars, dieseldyke on absolute/vegaspoker24/7, pokerchimp1 on
ftp
------
MrBookworm
> course of play after the flop. I am not a numbers person so i don't know
> the odds, but I do know this is not an ideal spot for AA to prevail. In
> fact I'd rather have a hand like 9T suited in this spot.
You're obviously not a numbers person. You should be all-in pre-flop even
if EVERY single person at the table goes all-in.
You would NOT want T9s in this position, it is a huge dog to an overpair.
It just happens to be less of a dog than a smaller pair.
Dean
-------
GrouchySmurf1002
> But AA is just not that strong against 3 other hands, and we all know it.
I'll leave it
> to you number crunchers to post to differences in the odds of AA vs. 1, 2
> or 3 other random hands. I doubt the AA is even a 50% favorite here.
Against 3 truly 'random' hands - AA is ~63.95% here. T9s is ~30.56%
Not to mention you're getting 3:1 on your money, so even 50% would
suffice. Hell, T9s is good enough to push if you're making a +EV
decision against 'random' hands.
Of course, it goes without saying that the chances of every card
combination being in all 3 of the opponent's ranges borders on 0, so all
of the above basically means zero.
-----
doggystyle
On Dec 27 2007 3:25 PM, pokerchimp wrote:
> On Dec 27 2007 1:01 PM, A Man Beaten by Jacks wrote:
>
> > On Wed, 26 Dec 2007 23:07:36 -0800, "MrBookworm" wrote:
> >
> > >You'll be splitting the pot about 60% of the time, IF you can put someone
> > >else on AA. The post is gonna be around $8700 if the BB calls. Unless the
> > >pot is gonna be bigger than 9K you can fold. BUT, this is ONLY when you
> > >KNOW someone else has AA.
> >
> > He says nothing about the individual players that would let a reader of the
> > post make that inference. Some general comments about the game itself
> > being tight don't really suffice.
> >
> > >What if the two EP's have KK and the BB has AK? What if the two EPs both
> > >have AKs?
> >
> > >It's an all-in unless you see someone elses AA. You're way ahead if you're
> > >up against KK, KK, and QQ or some combo of AK with QQ.
> >
> > I suspect Arlo is trolling us again. I can't believe he's serious about the
> > question.
>
> He made have made up the situation (although I doubt he is trolling). He
> is serious about the question, and I am 99% sure that he feels the best
> play here is to fold, based on what I know about his philosophy and his
> description of the game.
>
> thumbers on stars, dieseldyke on absolute/vegaspoker24/7, pokerchimp1 on
> ftp
>
> mixt...@comcast.net
_______________________________________________________________
Watch Lists, Block Lists, Favorites - http://www.recpoker.com
XaQ Morphy
> Assuming all the blinds count for a big blind, you can only make it 270. If
you
> are going to make up a pot limit scenario, please get the math right!!
Speaking of math, where'd you get the 270 from? My count is:
5+10+25+75=115, which is the money in the pot before it gets to you. You
then call the 75 and can raise 190 more, making your total bet 265. At
least that's the way it is on every single major online site (and I
imagine the smaller ones as well).
Good point, but I think it's obvious that the situation was made up and
it's also obvious what sort of answer Arlo was looking for.
-----
doggystyle
I thought you didnt care to offer oral services to men
CUZ U KISSIN HIS ASS HERE!!
On Dec 27 2007 3:34 PM, pokerchimp wrote:
> On Dec 27 2007 2:19 PM, A Man Beaten by Jacks wrote:
>
> > On Thu, 27 Dec 2007 19:58:53 +0100 (CET), PassAgain
> >
> > wrote:
> >
> > >Will in New Haven wrote in
> > >news:2ee5082f-f34f-40ed...@l1g2000hsa.googlegroup
> > >s.com:
> >
> > >> On Dec 27, 2:48 am, PassAgain
> > >> wrote:
> > >>> I would fold.
> >
> > >> Give up poker. While you are at it, stay in bed huddled under
> > >> the covers until you die.
> >
> > >> Will in New Haven
> >
> > >What a nasty reply to someone you don't know, who is only giving
> > >an opinion to an asked question.
> >
> > This post needs work. Here, this is more accurate:
> >
> > "What an accurate reply to someone you can tell is an idiot, from the
> > moronic opinion they gave to an asked question."
>
>
> Pfft, you guys can't see the forest for the trees. Passagain makes
> several valid points, the same points Arlo is trying to make. You can
> disagree, but just because you disagree doesn't make him, or Arlo, wrong.
> And it certainly doesn't excuse your rudeness towards someone who was
> asked for and is voicing and OPINION. They are just more interested in
> preserving a good win in a tight game than gambling, yes gambling even
> with the best hand, against 3 other hands. If this was a heads up
> situation, or even against two players, it's an autocall. But AA is just
> not that strong against 3 other hands, and we all know it. I'll leave it
> to you number crunchers to post to differences in the odds of AA vs. 1, 2
> or 3 other random hands. I doubt the AA is even a 50% favorite here.
>
> thumbers on stars, dieseldyke on absolute/vegaspoker24/7, pokerchimp1 on
> ftp
>
> mixt...@comcast.net
_______________________________________________________________
doggystyle
Until the onset of online p/l , both blinds were considered having the same
value, when calculating the size of the pot!! so I used 10+10 +25 etc.
This may start another one of those old school-new school arguements , but that
was how it was done !
> http://www.donkeymanifesto.com/
_______________________________________________________________
Block Lists, Favorites, and more - http://www.recpoker.com
da pickle
> Tell me again why you'd rather have T9s?
It is easy to fold T9 in this situation. Of course, T9 would not be in this
position in the first place.
Nick Wool
On Dec 27 2007 9:34 PM, pokerchimp wrote:
> On Dec 27 2007 2:19 PM, A Man Beaten by Jacks wrote:
>
> > On Thu, 27 Dec 2007 19:58:53 +0100 (CET), PassAgain
> >
> > wrote:
> >
> > >Will in New Haven wrote in
> > >news:2ee5082f-f34f-40ed...@l1g2000hsa.googlegroup
> > >s.com:
> >
> > >> On Dec 27, 2:48 am, PassAgain
> > >> wrote:
> > >>> I would fold.
> >
> > >> Give up poker. While you are at it, stay in bed huddled under
> > >> the covers until you die.
> >
> > >> Will in New Haven
> >
> > >What a nasty reply to someone you don't know, who is only giving
> > >an opinion to an asked question.
> >
> > This post needs work. Here, this is more accurate:
> >
> > "What an accurate reply to someone you can tell is an idiot, from the
> > moronic opinion they gave to an asked question."
>
>
> Pfft, you guys can't see the forest for the trees. Passagain makes
> several valid points, the same points Arlo is trying to make. You can
> disagree, but just because you disagree doesn't make him, or Arlo, wrong.
> And it certainly doesn't excuse your rudeness towards someone who was
> asked for and is voicing and OPINION. They are just more interested in
> preserving a good win in a tight game than gambling, yes gambling even
> with the best hand, against 3 other hands. If this was a heads up
> situation, or even against two players, it's an autocall. But AA is just
> not that strong against 3 other hands, and we all know it. I'll leave it
> to you number crunchers to post to differences in the odds of AA vs. 1, 2
> or 3 other random hands. I doubt the AA is even a 50% favorite here.
>
> thumbers on stars, dieseldyke on absolute/vegaspoker24/7, pokerchimp1 on
> ftp
Chimp:
1/ You would not have random hands in a sitution like this. What you ought to
find is a very narrow range of hands. Try something like JJ+(for first player
allin, even this is rather wide, far more likely to be QQ+). Infact, I think
you'll find that it is just as likely that 2 players both have KK as well as one
of them having AA.
2/ Assuming your 50% is correct, you are getting far more than evens for your
call. About 4-5 to 1 with the dead money? I'll take that on an even money
shot.
3/ If and when you feel unable to risk your stack evn with a big edge, you
should leave the table. Giving up a big edge like that is just not good poker.
I am of course assuming that the game is on the level. If for any reason you
think it isn't, you shouldn't be on it in the first place.
> mixt...@comcast.net
http://nickspokerblog.myblog.com/
_______________________________________________________________
* New Release: RecPoker.com v2.2 - http://www.recpoker.com
David Nicoson
<a1...@webnntp.invalid> wrote:
>Pfft, you guys can't see the forest for the trees. Passagain makes
>several valid points, the same points Arlo is trying to make. You can
>disagree, but just because you disagree doesn't make him, or Arlo, wrong.
>And it certainly doesn't excuse your rudeness towards someone who was
>asked for and is voicing and OPINION.
It goes without saying that the goal of the player should be to
maximize his return. Anyone not playing with this mindset is going to
lose money in the long run.
Anyone who's uncomfortable losing this amount of money (for whatever
reason) should get it off the table and feel no shame in doing so.
We can't talk strategy without the assumption that we're trying to
win. Otherwise, we have accept opinions like, "I would call if they
were red, because red is pretty."
> They are just more interested in
>preserving a good win in a tight game than gambling, yes gambling even
>with the best hand, against 3 other hands. If this was a heads up
>situation, or even against two players, it's an autocall. But AA is just
>not that strong against 3 other hands, and we all know it. I'll leave it
>to you number crunchers to post to differences in the odds of AA vs. 1, 2
>or 3 other random hands. I doubt the AA is even a 50% favorite here.
50% is a completely meaningless number in this context.
I'm embarrassed that this forum is even having this discussion.
da pickle
> Until the onset of online p/l , both blinds were considered having the
> same
> value, when calculating the size of the pot!! so I used 10+10 +25 etc.
>
> This may start another one of those old school-new school arguements , but
> that
> was how it was done !
It is still done that way. Small blind counts as a big blind. 10+10+25+75
= 120 ... call 75+120 is 195 "in the pot" ... raise the pot another 195
(plus the 75 call) makes it 270 to go.
However, unless a player objects to the "make it 300," I know of no cash
game of that sort where the dealer would (or should) make the correction.
(If it were a tournament, the dealer should make the appropriate
correction.)
doggystyle
If you are picking suited connectors to play against these hands , I think
78soo, or 56 soo will play better than 10-9 soo.
I havent run it , but this aint a spot for a hand with a 10 in it , espescially
with a 9
On Dec 27 2007 3:32 PM, GrouchySmurf1002 wrote:
> On Dec 27 2007 4:20 PM, pokerchimp wrote:
> > I am not a numbers person so i don't know
> > the odds, but I do know this is not an ideal spot for AA to prevail. In
> > fact I'd rather have a hand like 9T suited in this spot.
>
>
> So lets say you end up with KK v AK v AK
>
> Your AA has 78% equity
> Your T9s has 19% equity
>
>
> Or maybe you're in KK v QQ v KK
>
> Your AA has 79% equity
> Your T9s has 20% equity
>
>
> Now lets say you run into the other AA. So maybe AA v KK v QQ
>
> Your AA has 31% equity
> Your T9s has 17% equity
>
>
> Tell me again why you'd rather have T9s?
_______________________________________________________________
Your Online Poker Community - http://www.recpoker.com
A Man Beaten by Jacks
>On Dec 27 2007 2:19 PM, A Man Beaten by Jacks wrote:
>> On Thu, 27 Dec 2007 19:58:53 +0100 (CET), PassAgain <auto4...@hushmail.com>
>> wrote:
>> >Will in New Haven <bill....@taylorandfrancis.com> wrote in
>> >news:2ee5082f-f34f-40ed...@l1g2000hsa.googlegroup
>> >s.com:
>> >> On Dec 27, 2:48 am, PassAgain <auto409...@hushmail.com>
>> >> wrote:
>> >>> I would fold.
>> >> Give up poker. While you are at it, stay in bed huddled under
>> >> the covers until you die.
>> >> Will in New Haven
>> >What a nasty reply to someone you don't know, who is only giving
>> >an opinion to an asked question.
>> This post needs work. Here, this is more accurate:
>> "What an accurate reply to someone you can tell is an idiot, from the
>> moronic opinion they gave to an asked question."
>Pfft, you guys can't see the forest for the trees. Passagain makes
>several valid points, the same points Arlo is trying to make. You can
>disagree, but just because you disagree doesn't make him, or Arlo, wrong.
>And it certainly doesn't excuse your rudeness towards someone who was
>asked for and is voicing and OPINION.
It's a stupid opinion.
That's MY opinion.
XaQ Morphy
> win. Otherwise, we have accept opinions like, "I would call if they
> were red, because red is pretty."
Replace "red" with "suited" and you've just explained away half the calls
in poker.
____________________________________________________________________
RecGroups : the community-oriented newsreader : www.recgroups.com
XaQ Morphy
> for money to play. They all seemed to be pretty damn good players
> too. Much better than me, for sure.
>
> Now, in the heat of battle, looking at those two aces, it would be
> Very difficult for anyone to muck. I just personally don't like to
> give back a good win, when playing my own money. Playing for the
> House, it's a different ballgame, where I would get a cut of my
> wins. But then again, if playing for the House, I would have got
> the Finger in the back by the floorman before that hand ever came
> up. Especially if a live one came in and wanted to play.
Then why are you sitting at the table in the first place? If you don't
like to give back a good win, why not get up? There's nothing wrong with
that. There is plenty wrong with wanting to fold AA preflop here.
---
XaQ Morphy
> Until the onset of online p/l , both blinds were considered having the same
> value, when calculating the size of the pot!! so I used 10+10 +25 etc.
>
> This may start another one of those old school-new school arguements , but
that
> was how it was done !
No, I was honestly asking. You made another comment about the SB/BB and
that's what I thought you were referring to.
I've never played a live PL game, so all my PL experience is online.
Oooh, gotta go, just got J873 rainbow.
______________________________________________________________________
Mark Rafn
[Hero has $3000 and AA on the button in 5-10 PLH, UTG pots, Mid-position pots,
hero pots, BB pots, UTG gets all-in for $1800, mid gets all in for $4000. ]
>Overall the game is tight, not much action really and seldom do more than
>2 players see the river. This is now by far the biggest pot of the night
>and I would guess the week if not month.
>What do I do with my pocket Aces at this point?
Are you thinking you're being cheated? If not, then you jam. Even if you're
in over your head money-wise, you made that mistake by playing, and you should
leave immediately after the hand, but you can't fold here.
You're getting at least 27% equity on the better than 3:1 pot, and fair or
better on all possible side pots. Worst case, the other big stack has the
other 2 aces and you're looking at half value from the lesser hands. Best
case, the small stack has aces, the big stack has kings.
The common wisdom is absolutely correct here: The only time to fold aces
preflop in a game where you haven't ALREADY committed an atrocious mistake
by playing at all is late in a satellite, where surival rather than position
matters.
--
Mark Rafn da...@dagon.net <http://www.dagon.net/>
doggystyle
Once again, you are wrong , the only time you let an overbet go, as a dealer, is
when it is heads up. I was actually involved, with the change of this rule in
the mid 80's. Ciaffone was involved , and Ronnie Watts , and some of the other
Vegas locals wanted to change the rule , so that tourists might fall in a trap,
by betting too much. I fought it , and lost , to a bunch of local squeezes who
wanted an unfair advantage.
It was also around this time that the dealer was instructed to stop
announcing how much was in the pot prior to the flop. Once again , they
fashioned themselves as "sharpsters" , and they didnt want the "live " ones
being aided in any way.I also fought that one !!
_______________________________________________________________
FellKnight
I hate agreeing with Nick.
If you the $3k is a significant (15%+) chunk of your roll, you should have
already cashed out.
As it is, even with all the side pots, you are just as likely to see AA vs
KK vs KK as AA vs AA vs KK.
Worst case scenario is the the 3rd all-in has a live KK (somehow, lets
assume that UTG had QQ, and the $1800 stack has the other AA), you are
still a huge favorite to win the side pot vs the KK. If the $4k stack has
AA (as he should here), then you are effectively playing a 4 way pot for
$6100 and a side pot of $2400. The BB almost has to fold anything given
this action... there can't be THAT many aces after all.
Fell
--------
A Man Beaten by Jacks
wrote:
>> The first thing you should do is to stop lying. You cannot make it 300 here.
>> Assuming all the blinds count for a big blind, you can only make it 270. If
>you
>> are going to make up a pot limit scenario, please get the math right!!
>Speaking of math, where'd you get the 270 from? My count is:
>5+10+25+75=115, which is the money in the pot before it gets to you. You
>then call the 75 and can raise 190 more, making your total bet 265. At
>least that's the way it is on every single major online site (and I
>imagine the smaller ones as well).
>Good point, but I think it's obvious that the situation was made up and
>it's also obvious what sort of answer Arlo was looking for.
I don't even make it 300 there if I can with that stack. I make a reraise
slightly over a gobble. I treat any significant action coming back to me
as an underpair to my aces, take a flop, and see how it goes from there.
I don't feel like doing the math, but I don't think it gets all in in this
scenario, and I hope for a rag flop. If about half my stack is already
in preflop I go with almost any flop, but in that situation, I probably
jammed when it got back to me.
johnny_t
> arlo payne wrote:
>
>>
>> Question:
>>
>> What do I do with my pocket Aces at this point?
>
> consideration is various degrees of money management that says you are
> not appropriately bankrolled for the game.
The counter argument...
You do not have to play in every +ev situation. You do not have to
protect every dollar. NL is session based and not hand based.
Sometimes it is easier to be the tortoise than the hair. It is easier to
kill a frog a few degrees at a time. If you kill the sheep you don't
get anymore wool, and a thousand other maxims.
You strongly believe that you play better poker than anyone here at the
table. You have may not have more time to play, and you may not have
more money to make these kinds of +ev-high variation plays. You don't
have to. You made your play with 300 dollars, and instead of taking the
pot or being able to focus on a heads up 80-20 or better situation,
things have gotten out of hand, and while the money is good, the odds
aren't. Even if I do have positive equity in the hand.
Hopefully, "Joey" who calls with anything wins the hand, because he will
be the easiest to get the money from. But it doesn't matter, I don't
have to win them all, or get all the money, from this session. I am up,
up healthy, and given enough time, enough pots, enough poker, I will get
the rest. Why do I want to even give them a lotto pull at my cash? I
will bleed them, one drop at a time.
doggystyle
On Dec 27 2007 4:37 PM, XaQ Morphy wrote:
> On Dec 27 2007 3:58 PM, doggystyle wrote:
>
> > Until the onset of online p/l , both blinds were considered having the same
> > value, when calculating the size of the pot!! so I used 10+10 +25 etc.
> >
> > This may start another one of those old school-new school arguements , but
> that
> > was how it was done !
>
> No, I was honestly asking. You made another comment about the SB/BB and
> that's what I thought you were referring to.
>
> I've never played a live PL game, so all my PL experience is online.
> Oooh, gotta go, just got J873 rainbow.
>
> ---
> Morphy
> xaqm...@donkeymanifesto.com
FellKnight
> > The first thing you should do is to stop lying. You cannot make it 300
here.
> > Assuming all the blinds count for a big blind, you can only make it 270. If
> you
> > are going to make up a pot limit scenario, please get the math right!!
>
> Speaking of math, where'd you get the 270 from? My count is:
Live cash PL games treat the SB as a BB for the purposes of preflop
raising.
Fell
_____________________________________________________________________
doggystyle
On Dec 27 2007 4:28 PM, johnny_t wrote:
> johnny_t wrote:
> > arlo payne wrote:
> >
> >>
> >> Question:
> >>
> >> What do I do with my pocket Aces at this point?
> >
> > If you are properly bankrolled for the game. Call. Everything other
> > consideration is various degrees of money management that says you are
> > not appropriately bankrolled for the game.
>
>
> The counter argument...
>
> You do not have to play in every +ev situation. You do not have to
> protect every dollar. NL is session based and not hand based.
> Sometimes it is easier to be the tortoise than the hair. It is easier to
> kill a frog a few degrees at a time. If you kill the sheep you don't
> get anymore wool, and a thousand other maxims.
If you kill the sheep you don't
> get anymore wool,
OH YEAH EINSTEIN ..Lets not win a 11k-12k pot..lets leave it out there , and win
it 200 at a time..
JESUS CHRIST.. where do they find em ? You couldnt sell this to Forrest Gumpp
>
> You strongly believe that you play better poker than anyone here at the
> table. You have may not have more time to play, and you may not have
> more money to make these kinds of +ev-high variation plays. You don't
> have to. You made your play with 300 dollars, and instead of taking the
> pot or being able to focus on a heads up 80-20 or better situation,
> things have gotten out of hand, and while the money is good, the odds
> aren't. Even if I do have positive equity in the hand.
>
> Hopefully, "Joey" who calls with anything wins the hand, because he will
> be the easiest to get the money from. But it doesn't matter, I don't
> have to win them all, or get all the money, from this session. I am up,
> up healthy, and given enough time, enough pots, enough poker, I will get
> the rest. Why do I want to even give them a lotto pull at my cash? I
> will bleed them, one drop at a time.
_______________________________________________________________
Mark Rafn
>Pfft, you guys can't see the forest for the trees.
And apparently, you can't see the continent for the forest.
>You can disagree, but just because you disagree doesn't make him, or Arlo,
>wrong.
Disagreeing doesn't make them wrong. Being wrong makes them wrong. Anyone
who folds here in a fair game has made at least two mistakes:
1) their utility function is irrational. There's no possible hands
where the EV of playing doesn't justify the monetary risk. It's only $2700 to
call, with EV between +10% and +120%, depending on who has the other aces.
2) they shouldn't be in this game, if they're going to do it that badly.
>And it certainly doesn't excuse your rudeness towards someone who was
>asked for and is voicing and OPINION.
Many opinions are pretty thin veneers over incorrect facts. Disputing those
assumptions is valid. But that's just my OPINION, so if you disagree, you
prove my point!
>They are just more interested in
>preserving a good win in a tight game than gambling
See above. A) life is one long session, so "preserving" a win is silly.
B) the way to preserve is to not play, not to make dumb plays.
>situation, or even against two players, it's an autocall. But AA is just
>not that strong against 3 other hands, and we all know it. I'll leave it
>to you number crunchers to post to differences in the odds of AA vs. 1, 2
>or 3 other random hands. I doubt the AA is even a 50% favorite here.
Worst case, just over 27% equity (including 50% chance to tie). If everyone
were even-stacked, you'd STILL jam $2700 into the $9300 pot. But with one
short stack, one medium stack, and you as a big stack (note that the two
biggest stacks are equal in any poker hand), you're far better than even this
auto-play.
da pickle
>
> Once again, you are wrong , the only time you let an overbet go, as a
> dealer, is
> when it is heads up. I was actually involved, with the change of this rule
> in
> the mid 80's.
I wont argue with you about the 80's but a round up to 300 when the proper
maximum bet is 270 is not much nowadays.
Have you actually seen a dealer continue to announce the size of the pot
without being asked during the play of the hand? Amazing.
doggystyle
WTF??? Did you get a new "unrelated vocabulary for Xmas?
What the fuck are you talking about ???
"utility function? mine works unless a fuse blows
On Dec 27 2007 4:26 PM, Mark Rafn wrote:
_______________________________________________________________
Ian Stuart
>
> You should be all-in pre-flop even
> if EVERY single person at the table goes all-in.
>
> Dean
Ah, but but but, what if, like, it's the first hand of the WSOP ME and
you're a world class player? Huh? HUHHH? Well? Do ya still call?
!!!!!
OK so it's the first hand of the WSOP ME and you're a WCP but you've got
inot debt and are gonna lose your trailer to the bank if you don't cash.
Well? Do you call now? well? Huh????
!!!!!
OK OK OK!!!!! It's the first hand of the WSOP ME and you're a WCP but if
you can just make $50k you'll be able to buy a new kidney in China for
your 6 year old neice who suffers some bad kidney-wasting disease. So now
do still think you can call? Well? Think about it. What are you gonna tell
that sweet little kid if you bust out this hand? How can you look her in
the face? You're her uncle for fuck sake, don't you care? Fold man, just
fold.
!!!!!
Heartless bastard! Serves you right if they get cracked.
FellKnight
No, but I was taught in dealing school that if a player said raise, threw
out 3 black chips, I was to announce the bet of $270.
Fell
_______________________________________________________________________
* kill-files, watch-lists, favorites, and more.. www.recgroups.com
da pickle
>> Have you actually seen a dealer continue to announce the size of the pot
>> without being asked during the play of the hand? Amazing.
>
> No, but I was taught in dealing school that if a player said raise, threw
> out 3 black chips, I was to announce the bet of $270.
If the player says $300 to go and is immediately called by the other two
players, do you make them all take their respective 30 dollars back? Ever
deal a game where the players want to round to the nearest green chip? Does
your casino allow it?
Will in New Haven
> The folding argument is actually valid - take your money and run. $3k is a very
> nice score.
That's an argument for picking up your chips before you even get dealt
this hand. If you think you've had a good win and it's been a "grind,"
so you are tired, you should have already quit. Since you are here
with those Aces, you should make the decision that will have you wind
up with the most money on the average.
Unless there is some reason to suspect a cold deck, and (that moron)
Doggystyle has pointed out, correctly, that this is a perfect time
for one, you should get your money in.
Will in New Haven
--
"Win the easy hands. Loud, noisy confrontations are for d-gs."
_Poker for Cats_ by Feather
Will in New Haven
> On Dec 27 2007 12:49 AM, arlo payne wrote:
>
>
>
> > Think about this one.
>
> > I am playing in a $5-$10 pot limit holdem game.
>
> > Overall the game is tight.
>
> > I have been playing for 7 hours
>
> > I have been able to grind my $500 into $3000 but it has been a real grind.
>
> > Not much action really and seldom do more than 2 players see the river
>
> > I look down and I have pocket aces
>
> > First to act makes it $25
>
> > A couple of players fold then it is raised to $75
>
> > I am the button and make it $300
>
> > The small blind folds.
>
> > The big blind makes it $700 and has $1900 left
>
> > First to act makes it $1800 all in next makes it $4000 all in
>
> > This is now by far the biggest pot of the night and I would guess the week if
> > not month.
>
>
> > What do I do with my pocket Aces at this point?
>
> my guess is that Arlo would fold. He described the game as tight, no
> action and a grind, yet he is up $2500 (well, $2200 if he folds after
> raising $300). AA vs. 3 other players with no ability to effect the
> course of play after the flop. I am not a numbers person so i don't know
> the odds, but I do know this is not an ideal spot for AA to prevail. In
> fact I'd rather have a hand like 9T suited in this spot.
With all due respect, that's because you are wrong. AA has a higher
winning percentage against any number of opponents than any other
hand. It has a falling expectation of winning the hand with each
player entering the pot but it has a rising expectation of cash won
with every player nailed to the pot. Well, it wins more money against
eight opponents than against nine but it is still profitable against
nine. 9T suited never has a bigger preflop EV than AA unless you are
playing some other game.
There is a very good reason never to have picked up this hand. This
sounds like a game one would be quitting soon, especially if one is as
old as I am and Arlo is. The only reason to _fold_ this hand, once you
have it, is if you suspect foul play. The story sounds like one might
legitimately expect foul play. If I were there, I might fold because
of that suspicion but I can't see the game from here.
Will in New Haven
--
"Win the easy hands. Loud, noisy confrontations are for d-gs."
_Poker for Cats_ by Feather
>
> Arlo folds this hand. "Lack of need to burn off all winnings in one hand
> when the games speed is slower than the speed of that hand. "
>
> Do I win a prize Arlo?
>
> thumbers on stars, dieseldyke on absolute/vegaspoker24/7, pokerchimp1 on
> ftp
>
FellKnight
A dealer dealing PL is supposed to be on the ball with the bet count. If
that happened, barring a house rule or table rule allowing a larger bet, I
would announce the bet and provide change to the players in question.
The Green chip rule does not usually come into play until the 10-25 PL
level.
Fell
________________________________________________________________________
Will in New Haven
> On Dec 27 2007 2:48 AM, PassAgain wrote:
>
> > arlo payne <arlo_pa...@hotmail.com> wrote in
> >news:1198734559$108...@recpoker.com:
>
> > I would fold.
>
> > It's a mind thing with me. I can live with a $2200 win in a tough
> > game after playing 7 hrs. What I could not stomach is seeing
> > myself go from $2200 winner to $500 loser, after someone lucks out
> > on me.
>
> You win a prize too. I hope he is handing out prizes. The question is
> what ARLO would do. Arlo would fold in this spot for the reasons you cite.
So you are calling Arlo a fool?
Will in New Haven
--
"Don't worry too much about being bluffed. D*gs DO bite."
_Poker for Cats_ by Feather
>
>
>
>
>
> > > Think about this one.
>
> > > I am playing in a $5-$10 pot limit holdem game.
>
> > > Overall the game is tight.
>
> > > I have been playing for 7 hours
>
> > > I have been able to grind my $500 into $3000 but it has been
> > > a real grind.
>
> > > Not much action really and seldom do more than 2 players see
> > > the river
>
> > > I look down and I have pocket aces
>
> > > First to act makes it $25
>
> > > A couple of players fold then it is raised to $75
>
> > > I am the button and make it $300
>
> > > The small blind folds.
>
> > > The big blind makes it $700 and has $1900 left
>
> > > First to act makes it $1800 all in next makes it $4000 all in
>
> > > This is now by far the biggest pot of the night and I would
> > > guess the week if not month.
>
> > > Question:
>
> > > What do I do with my pocket Aces at this point?
>
> > > ______________________________________________________________
> > > _ The Largest Online Poker Community -
> > >http://www.recpoker.com
>
> thumbers on stars, dieseldyke on absolute/vegaspoker24/7, pokerchimp1 on
> ftp
>
> mixth...@comcast.net
>
> ____________________________________________________________________
Will in New Haven
> "XaQ Morphy" <a1c5...@webnntp.invalid> wrote innews:lvld45x...@recgroups.com:
>
>
>
> >> Peeps that cannot manage are easily found on the rail, or
> >> begging for money to play. They all seemed to be pretty damn
> >> good players too. Much better than me, for sure.
>
> >> Now, in the heat of battle, looking at those two aces, it
> >> would be Very difficult for anyone to muck. I just
> >> personally don't like to give back a good win, when playing
> >> my own money. Playing for the House, it's a different
> >> ballgame, where I would get a cut of my wins. But then
> >> again, if playing for the House, I would have got the Finger
> >> in the back by the floorman before that hand ever came up.
> >> Especially if a live one came in and wanted to play.
>
> > Then why are you sitting at the table in the first place? If
> > you don't like to give back a good win, why not get up?
> > There's nothing wrong with that. There is plenty wrong with
> > wanting to fold AA preflop here.
>
> like that, has to occur. AA is a long way from being a cinch in
> that hand. The cinch is the $2200 profit, without taking any risk.
> Deal, Or No Deal? Take the deal. Bird in the hand etc.
Low variance is a savings account. If you didn't leave before this
hand, you should play to max your profit on this hand. Unless you
never plan to play again.
Of course, I am more and more thinking that this scenario is very
likely to be a cheating scenario and I wonder if the dealer can keep a
straight face if I decide to fold. I would have to be there to fold,
however.
By the way, someone said I made a nasty reply earlier on this thread.
I stand by it.
da pickle
> A dealer dealing PL is supposed to be on the ball with the bet count. If
> that happened, barring a house rule or table rule allowing a larger bet, I
> would announce the bet and provide change to the players in question.
>
> The Green chip rule does not usually come into play until the 10-25 PL
> level.
Most of the pot limit I have dealt has been 5-10-25 ... the 25 being a
mandatory straddle. That is the way they like it. I have no problem with
rounding to the green chip. I agree that if the green chip is not in play,
it is not as usual for 25 dollar rounding to occur. Some "red chip" game
players like the 25 dollar round because it is easier to calculate.
Mark Rafn
>I don't even make it 300 there if I can with that stack. I make a reraise
>slightly over a gobble. I treat any significant action coming back to me
>as an underpair to my aces, take a flop, and see how it goes from there.
NOW you're just funning with us, right? Rather than getting all the action
you can when you KNOW you're a favorite, you'd rather wait until you can't
tell if you're against a set or just a big (but smaller than yours) pair?
pokerchimp
> I thought you didnt care to offer oral services to men
>
> CUZ U KISSIN HIS ASS HERE!!
>
The question posed was "what do I do." I referred to Arlo. I never
commented on what i would do, I gave the answer what I thought Arlo would
do. As far as kissing ass, not my style unless she is real cute. Getting
my ass kissed...that's a whole different story.
> On Dec 27 2007 3:34 PM, pokerchimp wrote:
>
> > On Dec 27 2007 2:19 PM, A Man Beaten by Jacks wrote:
> >
> > > On Thu, 27 Dec 2007 19:58:53 +0100 (CET), PassAgain
> > >
> > > wrote:
> > >
> > > >Will in New Haven wrote in
> > > >news:2ee5082f-f34f-40ed...@l1g2000hsa.googlegroup
> > > >s.com:
> > >
> > > >> On Dec 27, 2:48 am, PassAgain
> > > >> wrote:
> > > >>> I would fold.
> > >
> > > >> Give up poker. While you are at it, stay in bed huddled under
> > > >> the covers until you die.
> > >
> > > >> Will in New Haven
> > >
> > > >What a nasty reply to someone you don't know, who is only giving
> > > >an opinion to an asked question.
> > >
> > > This post needs work. Here, this is more accurate:
> > >
> > > "What an accurate reply to someone you can tell is an idiot, from the
> > > moronic opinion they gave to an asked question."
> >
> >
> > Pfft, you guys can't see the forest for the trees. Passagain makes
> > several valid points, the same points Arlo is trying to make. You can
> > disagree, but just because you disagree doesn't make him, or Arlo, wrong.
> > And it certainly doesn't excuse your rudeness towards someone who was
> > asked for and is voicing and OPINION. They are just more interested in
> > preserving a good win in a tight game than gambling, yes gambling even
> > with the best hand, against 3 other hands. If this was a heads up
> > situation, or even against two players, it's an autocall. But AA is just
> > not that strong against 3 other hands, and we all know it. I'll leave it
> > to you number crunchers to post to differences in the odds of AA vs. 1, 2
> > or 3 other random hands. I doubt the AA is even a 50% favorite here.
> >
> > thumbers on stars, dieseldyke on absolute/vegaspoker24/7, pokerchimp1 on
> > ftp
> >
thumbers on stars, dieseldyke on absolute/vegaspoker24/7, pokerchimp1 on
ftp
_______________________________________________________________________
FellKnight
Not at all.
By making it $300 (or re-re-potting it), you are basically announcing to
the table that you have aces. Your stack size allows them to play almost
perfect poker against you postflop. There is every reason to consider
flatcalling the reraise or making a smaller reraise in a PL game.
Fell
-------
FellKnight
> Of course, I am more and more thinking that this scenario is very
> likely to be a cheating scenario and I wonder if the dealer can keep a
> straight face if I decide to fold. I would have to be there to fold,
> however.
If we are being cheated here, then we are missing out on some pertinent
info, namely the location of the game, min-max buyins, play of the other
player who has the $4k stack (did he just sit with it?), etc.
Without that info, all we can go on is the info we have.
Fell
------
looking for a better newsgroup-reader? - www.recgroups.com
pokerchimp
> Chimp:
>
> 1/ You would not have random hands in a sitution like this. What you ought
to
> find is a very narrow range of hands. Try something like JJ+(for first
player
> allin, even this is rather wide, far more likely to be QQ+). Infact, I think
> you'll find that it is just as likely that 2 players both have KK as well as
one
> of them having AA.
>
> 2/ Assuming your 50% is correct, you are getting far more than evens for your
> call. About 4-5 to 1 with the dead money? I'll take that on an even money
> shot.
>
> 3/ If and when you feel unable to risk your stack evn with a big edge, you
> should leave the table. Giving up a big edge like that is just not good
poker.
>
> I am of course assuming that the game is on the level. If for any reason you
> think it isn't, you shouldn't be on it in the first place.
>
> > mixt...@comcast.net
> http://nickspokerblog.myblog.com/
In case I somehow was unclear, I answered the questions "What do I do..."
I was referring to Arlo. I never said what I would do in the situation,
I said what I thought he would do and why.
thumbers on stars, dieseldyke on absolute/vegaspoker24/7, pokerchimp1 on
ftp
--------
pokerchimp
For about the fifth time, the questions posed was " What do I do with
pocket aces here think about it." The "I" in question was Arlo. I was
predicting what Arlo would do and his reasoning, based on previous
conversations with him. I did not state what I would do, ever, in this
thread, in those circumstances. The reason for that is that I would have
left the game knowing I would have been unwilling to blow back the money
in a situation like that.
________________________________________________________________________
Nick Wool
On Dec 28 2007 12:20 AM, Will in New Haven wrote:
>
> Low variance is a savings account. If you didn't leave before this
> hand, you should play to max your profit on this hand. Unless you
> never plan to play again.
>
> Of course, I am more and more thinking that this scenario is very
> likely to be a cheating scenario and I wonder if the dealer can keep a
> straight face if I decide to fold. I would have to be there to fold,
> however.
>
> By the way, someone said I made a nasty reply earlier on this thread.
> I stand by it.
>
> Will in New Haven
Will, I've just been thinking about the cheating angle. If they were cheating,
why so much scary action preflop?
Why not just give Arlo his aces, no one else having anything except the cheater,
with, say 88. Flop of A83 rainbow, lead into the aces, jam any reraise, or if
no reraise, lead into aces with a pot bet on the turn, which of course, will
be a blank, say, K. If we still havent got all the money in, do the same at the
river.
Although with the board 4 suited, as unco-ordinated as you could have wished
for, a guy leading strongly into you, I fail to see how a guy with top set will
NOT have all his money in the middle. Of course, the 8 will river. Now can you
blame the guy with the set of 8s being so agressive?
> --
>
> "Don't worry too much about being bluffed. D*gs DO bite."
> _Poker for Cats_ by Feather
http://nickspokerblog.myblog.com/
_______________________________________________________________
New Feature: Mark All As Read! - http://www.recpoker.com
Will in New Haven
> Top posting:
>
> For about the fifth time, the questions posed was " What do I do with
> pocket aces here think about it." The "I" in question was Arlo. I was
> predicting what Arlo would do and his reasoning, based on previous
> conversations with him. I did not state what I would do, ever, in this
> thread, in those circumstances. The reason for that is that I would have
> left the game knowing I would have been unwilling to blow back the money
> in a situation like that.
That is a very good reason to have already left the game. However,
then the hand doesn't come up. Folding because you can't stand the
idea of losing this wonderul session is awful poker. Your lifetime
equity is improved by getting your chips in the middle. Other than a
suspicion about the honesty of the game, which cannot be judged from
the information we have, there is no way a poker player should fold
here.
I respect Arlo's game too much to think he would fold here unless he
was worried about being cheated.
Will in New Haven
--
"Don't worry too much about being bluffed. D*gs DO bite."
_Poker for Cats_ by Feather
>
> > > > mixth...@comcast.net
> > >http://nickspokerblog.myblog.com/
>
> > I hate agreeing with Nick.
>
> > If you the $3k is a significant (15%+) chunk of your roll, you should have
> > already cashed out.
>
> > As it is, even with all the side pots, you are just as likely to see AA vs
> > KK vs KK as AA vs AA vs KK.
>
> > Worst case scenario is the the 3rd all-in has a live KK (somehow, lets
> > assume that UTG had QQ, and the $1800 stack has the other AA), you are
> > still a huge favorite to win the side pot vs the KK. If the $4k stack has
> > AA (as he should here), then you are effectively playing a 4 way pot for
> > $6100 and a side pot of $2400. The BB almost has to fold anything given
> > this action... there can't be THAT many aces after all.
>
> > Fell
>
> thumbers on stars, dieseldyke on absolute/vegaspoker24/7, pokerchimp1 on
> ftp
>
Pepe Papon
>Even if you're
>in over your head money-wise, you made that mistake by playing, and you should
>leave immediately after the hand, but you can't fold here.
Yes, he can and should if, in fact, he's over his head money-wise.
Never risk money you can't afford to lose.
Deadmoney Walking
> Will in New Haven <bill.re...@taylorandfrancis.com> wrote innews:2ee5082f-f34f-40ed...@l1g2000hsa.googlegroup
> s.com:
>
> > On Dec 27, 2:48 am, PassAgain <auto409...@hushmail.com>
> > wrote:
> >> I would fold.
> > Give up poker. While you are at it, stay in bed huddled under
> > the covers until you die.
>
> > Will in New Haven
>
> What a nasty reply to someone you don't know, who is only giving
> an opinion to an asked question.
That depends, who else is in the bed with him?
Deadmoney Walking
>
> For about the fifth time, the questions posed was " What do I do with
> pocket aces here think about it." The "I" in question was Arlo.
Okay,
"I, Arlo, would keep my aces until the showdown. If they are beaten I
will muck, if not I will spread them face up on the table, keeping a
hand on them until the dealer sees I have a winning hand."
pokerchimp
> On Dec 27 2007 4:20 PM, pokerchimp wrote:
> > I am not a numbers person so i don't know
> > the odds, but I do know this is not an ideal spot for AA to prevail. In
> > fact I'd rather have a hand like 9T suited in this spot.
>
>
> So lets say you end up with KK v AK v AK
>
> Your AA has 78% equity
> Your T9s has 19% equity
>
>
> Or maybe you're in KK v QQ v KK
>
> Your AA has 79% equity
> Your T9s has 20% equity
>
>
> Now lets say you run into the other AA. So maybe AA v KK v QQ
>
> Your AA has 31% equity
> Your T9s has 17% equity
>
>
> Tell me again why you'd rather have T9s?
I simply have no good or logical response here, which is why I tend to
stay away from most discussions on poker. I admit I am a total nit when
it comes to numbers, I tend to estimate pot odd rather than know them, and
80% of my play is based on intuition and experience rather than knowledge
and expertise. Still, over the past several years, until recently, I've
done well enough to pay my bills by playing. Go figure.
thumbers on stars, dieseldyke on absolute/vegaspoker24/7, pokerchimp1 on
ftp
pokerchimp
When it comes to my opinions on poker hands and numbers, I definitely
don't deserve any respect, so all that is due, is none. LOL
AA has a higher
> winning percentage against any number of opponents than any other
> hand. It has a falling expectation of winning the hand with each
> player entering the pot but it has a rising expectation of cash won
> with every player nailed to the pot. Well, it wins more money against
> eight opponents than against nine but it is still profitable against
> nine. 9T suited never has a bigger preflop EV than AA unless you are
> playing some other game.
>
> There is a very good reason never to have picked up this hand. This
> sounds like a game one would be quitting soon,
Yes, when I answered the questions, I was answering what I thought Arlo
would do, not what I would do. I would have gotten up from the game with
a $2500 win, especially in my current situation.
especially if one is as
> old as I am and Arlo is. The only reason to _fold_ this hand, once you
> have it, is if you suspect foul play. The story sounds like one might
> legitimately expect foul play. If I were there, I might fold because
> of that suspicion but I can't see the game from here.
>
> Will in New Haven
>
> --
>
>
> "Win the easy hands. Loud, noisy confrontations are for d-gs."
> _Poker for Cats_ by Feather
>
>
>
>
> >
> > Arlo folds this hand. "Lack of need to burn off all winnings in one hand
> > when the games speed is slower than the speed of that hand. "
> >
> > Do I win a prize Arlo?
> >
> > thumbers on stars, dieseldyke on absolute/vegaspoker24/7, pokerchimp1 on
> > ftp
> >
> > mixth...@comcast.net
> >
thumbers on stars, dieseldyke on absolute/vegaspoker24/7, pokerchimp1 on
ftp
______________________________________________________________________
XaQ Morphy
> lol couldnt wait for J-10-8-6 3 clubs ?
You can't wait for a premium hand like that every time. Sometimes you
gotta get in there and gamble.
---
Morphy
xaqm...@donkeymanifesto.com
http://www.donkeymanifesto.com
---
doggystyle
On Dec 27 2007 5:08 PM, PassAgain wrote:
> "XaQ Morphy" wrote in
> news:lvld45x...@recgroups.com:
>
> >> Peeps that cannot manage are easily found on the rail, or
> >> begging for money to play. They all seemed to be pretty damn
> >> good players too. Much better than me, for sure.
> >>
> >> Now, in the heat of battle, looking at those two aces, it
> >> would be Very difficult for anyone to muck. I just
> >> personally don't like to give back a good win, when playing
> >> my own money. Playing for the House, it's a different
> >> ballgame, where I would get a cut of my wins. But then
> >> again, if playing for the House, I would have got the Finger
> >> in the back by the floorman before that hand ever came up.
> >> Especially if a live one came in and wanted to play.
> >
> > Then why are you sitting at the table in the first place? If
> > you don't like to give back a good win, why not get up?
> > There's nothing wrong with that. There is plenty wrong with
> > wanting to fold AA preflop here.
>
> Sitting at the table doesn't mean a hand like that, with betting
> like that, has to occur. AA is a long way from being a cinch in
> that hand. The cinch is the $2200 profit, without taking any risk.
> Deal, Or No Deal? Take the deal. Bird in the hand etc.
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doggystyle
have I seen it ?
Well, I did it for the first year at the Stardust
You may have missed the thread about how bad dealers are nowadys
It is so sad
On Dec 27 2007 5:05 PM, da pickle wrote:
> "doggystyle"
> >
> > Once again, you are wrong , the only time you let an overbet go, as a
> > dealer, is
> > when it is heads up. I was actually involved, with the change of this rule
> > in
> > the mid 80's.
>
> I wont argue with you about the 80's but a round up to 300 when the proper
> maximum bet is 270 is not much nowadays.
>
> Have you actually seen a dealer continue to announce the size of the pot
> without being asked during the play of the hand? Amazing.
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A Man Beaten by Jacks
Usually I'm too pot committed to get away from it regardless, if it comes
back to me reraised. Then I jam. No reason to give them a chance to
get away from it. But if I really am concerned with potentially losing my
stack, it might be nice to see a flop. I'm still not getting away from many
flops, but if I correctly dodge a set even 5-10% of the time it shows up,
I'm doing better than getting it all in preflop, and I'm going to err toward
NOT dodging it. I don't think I do hugely better doing this, but just slightly
better.
This is assuming I think I'm a better player than whoever is in the pot.
If not, then I don't even try to get fancy and just raise the pot whenever
I can.