NLH Hand
Victor Victoria
$2-5 NLH.
Stacks: Mine : $500+ Mid position: $1k . Othere ~ $500 each.
Mid position (aggressive player -raise any two suited connectors) opens for 20.
Next player call. You are in cut - off with Ts,9s.
What's your play?
I called. Button and BB blind called. Pot is $80.
Flop: JD,8c,7h.
Mid position bets $25. What's your play?
I raised $25 hoping for a reraise. Folded to Mid position who calls. $130 in
pot.
Turn Td. Mid position checks. What's your play? Don't ask what I did?
O.K. I bet $75. Now this is about the worse bet that can be made here other than
checking. I know that now and I knwe it then but I made it out of fear. Mid
position staring at the turn card calls immediately. $280 in the pot.
River 3d. Without hesitation Mid Position moves in. I have $350 left, what's
my play? I didn't think I just called. He held 4d,5d.
Critique my play please.
VV
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The Fred
this dufeless idiot to hit a baby flush again.
On Jun 24 2006 5:42 AM, Victor Victoria wrote:
> $2-5 NLH.
>
> Stacks: Mine : $500+ Mid position: $1k . Othere ~ $500 each.
>
> Mid position (aggressive player -raise any two suited connectors) opens for
20.
> Next player call. You are in cut - off with Ts,9s.
>
> What's your play?
>
> I called. Button and BB blind called. Pot is $80.
>
> Flop: JD,8c,7h.
>
> Mid position bets $25. What's your play?
>
> I raised $25 hoping for a reraise. Folded to Mid position who calls. $130 in
> pot.
>
> Turn Td. Mid position checks. What's your play? Don't ask what I did?
>
> O.K. I bet $75. Now this is about the worse bet that can be made here other
than
> checking. I know that now and I knwe it then but I made it out of fear. Mid
> position staring at the turn card calls immediately. $280 in the pot.
>
> River 3d. Without hesitation Mid Position moves in. I have $350 left,
what's
> my play? I didn't think I just called. He held 4d,5d.
>
> Critique my play please.
>
> VV
This post brought to you by The Fred.
http://www.affordablecarats.com/thefred.htm
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Gary Carson
I think the preflop call is pretty automatic. I'd have just called the flop or
made a more substantial raise. Your description doesn't make the position of
the other player clear. Preflop you describe him as in front of you, on the
flop it sound more like he's behind you (taking the mid position player as
first). I don't like fishing for a re-raise when it's not clear whether he
actually has a hand to re-raise with or not. I don't like just calling unless
I"m fishing for an overcall. I also don't like just calling when somebody might
be drawing to a flush.
If you'd have just called the flop he'd have probably made a straight out
semi-bluff when he picked up the flush draw (the kind of player he seems to be
often does that), but if he did that then he's going to come along for the ride
when you raise.
What would have worked out better was the mini-raise you made and a substantial
bet when he checked the turn, that's most likely to have won, but that's pretty
results oriented. I don't like the flop mini-raise.
I think when the turn makes half the deck for you a bad card on the river you
should pretty much always just try to get it overwith right. Given his check on
the turn I think you should not fool around any longer and just move in. I
don't think I'm being results oriented i that line of thinking, but I might be.
On Jun 24 2006 5:42 AM, Victor Victoria wrote:
>
> $2-5 NLH.
>
> Stacks: Mine : $500+ Mid position: $1k . Othere ~ $500 each.
>
> Mid position (aggressive player -raise any two suited connectors) opens for
> 20.
> Next player call. You are in cut - off with Ts,9s.
>
> What's your play?
>
> I called. Button and BB blind called. Pot is $80.
>
> Flop: JD,8c,7h.
>
> Mid position bets $25. What's your play?
>
> I raised $25 hoping for a reraise. Folded to Mid position who calls. $130 in
> pot.
>
> Turn Td. Mid position checks. What's your play? Don't ask what I did?
>
> O.K. I bet $75. Now this is about the worse bet that can be made here other
> than
> checking. I know that now and I knwe it then but I made it out of fear. Mid
> position staring at the turn card calls immediately. $280 in the pot.
>
> River 3d. Without hesitation Mid Position moves in. I have $350 left, what's
> my play? I didn't think I just called. He held 4d,5d.
>
> Critique my play please.
>
> VV
Gary Carson
http://www.garycarson.com
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jarrett40
Victor Victoria wrote:
> $2-5 NLH.
>
> Stacks: Mine : $500+ Mid position: $1k . Othere ~ $500 each.
>
> Mid position (aggressive player -raise any two suited connectors) opens for 20.
> Next player call. You are in cut - off with Ts,9s.
>
> What's your play?
>
> I called. Button and BB blind called. Pot is $80.
It's a borderline play to call here but it's certainly not a mistake.
It could go either way. I would probably called.
>
> Flop: JD,8c,7h.
>
> Mid position bets $25. What's your play?
>
> I raised $25 hoping for a reraise. Folded to Mid position who calls. $130 in
> pot.
I don't want to pimp off my hand just yet so I just call. I'm going to
let him bet again on the turn and then make my move.
>
> Turn Td. Mid position checks. What's your play? Don't ask what I did?
I wanted him to bet so I could set him all in. Since he didn't, I'm
going to make a big bet of at least the size of the pot or even overbet
it a little bit to make the odds unfavorable in case he has a flush
draw or a one card straight draw
>
> O.K. I bet $75. Now this is about the worse bet that can be made here other than
> checking. I know that now and I knwe it then but I made it out of fear. Mid
> position staring at the turn card calls immediately. $280 in the pot.
>
> River 3d. Without hesitation Mid Position moves in. I have $350 left, what's
> my play? I didn't think I just called. He held 4d,5d.
>
> Critique my play please.
You raised him on the flop. You bet after he checked the turn
[unfortunately not enough].
Now he leads out all in on the river. It's time to cut your loss and
dump the hand.
jarrett40
Gary Carson
On Jun 24 2006 9:40 AM, jarrett40 wrote:
>
> You raised him on the flop. You bet after he checked the turn
> [unfortunately not enough].
> Now he leads out all in on the river. It's time to cut your loss and
> dump the hand.
>
With the particular fact pattern in this hand, I don't think what to do on the
river is knowable by someone not on the scene.
It's 100% a matter of at-the-time judgement. This is an example of what I was
talking about in the short big bet chapter in my hold'em book, you just have to
decide whether he has a flush or not and act accordingly. It's decision time,
not analysis time.
It's the reason that just moving in on the turn when the board creates so many
scare cards is attractive. One of the keys to making good decisions in no limit
is not putting yourself in a decision to have to make hard ones. There are so
many scare cards that might entice a bluff from him (two suits or putting a
straight on the board) that the time to deal with the river is on the turn.
Gary Carson
http://www.garycarson.com
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Jake_St...@yahoo.com
Gary Carson wrote:
"I don't think I'm being results oriented i that line of thinking, but
I might be."
I think you might be an idiot, but maybe you're a moron instead. Or
maybe both. But I'm pretty sure idiot is correct.
PoMoFo
preflop, but then applies the philosophy to the rest of the hand..
http://www.fulltiltpoker.com/proLessons.php?lesson=60
In part it says " A player who opts for the small raise may think he's being
crafty by getting me to put a little extra money in the pot while he holds a
big hand. But this is not a profitable play. " He goes on to explain why,
and alternatives to playing it.
The turn bet is way too small. He has implied odds to call your bet. As
you state, you were scared ... this is not a good situation to be in, in NL.
You weren't afraid to get all your chips in the pot, as you did just that on
the river (on an even scarier board) so why not just put them in on the turn
when you are probably not behind and put pressure on your opponent? He does
not have the odds to call if you push on the turn, but he does have odds to
call your $75 bet, since he will empty your stack on the river if he hits
his flush (which is exactly what happened).
pomofo
"Victor Victoria" <4308...@recpoker.com> wrote in message
news:1151145779$817...@recpoker.com...
PoMoFo
NL. I have been in this situation many times and have made a fortune
playing it the way his opponent did. And, on my way to the bank, I usually
have a good chuckle to myself about all the nasty things the players at the
table said about me ... how I am going to go broke playing playing like
that, what a dufeless idiot I am, etc. It gives me hope that they will
never figure it out. Doyle Brunson covers the double belly buster type of
situation in his book, and how profitable it can be, and how he is labeled
as the luckiest guy alive because of it.
Assume, for the sake of arguement, that you were the opponent and you were
absolutely certain our hero had flopped the straight when he did the
minraise. How would you have played it? You are getting 4:1 of actual odds
on your call to get the turn card you need to set the trap. You have to
hope that your opponent will not recognize the danger of the second diamond
(i.e. he is thinking only an idiot would stay in for a double belly buster
flush draw on that flop), and will underbet the pot because of it (because
his stack is too small to get implied odds if he does a pot sized bet on the
turn). But, since he minraised the flop you have to figure him to not be
that strong of a player.
Maybe the guy was a dufeless idiot and got lucky, or maybe he actually knew
what he was doing. We will never know. But to just dismiss him as an idiot
is a mistake. He played it well. The only thing I don't really like about
this hand is that our hero's stack was barely enough for this play, because
you really need it to be even bigger (better implied odds).
pomofo
"The Fred" <fredm...@cox.net> wrote in message
news:0qjvm3x...@recgroups.com...
Victor Victoria
pomofo,
I agree wtith you. First thought is as Fred states but you are right on.
I believe the key mistake is not having bet enough on the turn to make the
implied odds unatractive or negative.
VV
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John Forsberg
A lot of players will shut down and go into "got to hit something mode" if
they're slammed with a sizeable raise and play back with far too few hands. If
the opener is like that I can easily see a big raise to shut out the other
players, get some dead money from the caller and play a big pot in position when
you'll steal the pot a lot more than your fair share.
If he isn't that kind of player I'll just call. But the reraise taking slightly
the worst of it showdown-wise is pretty good due to positional advantage (which
more than makes up for being up against AJo or 77 some of the time) and dead
money in the pot.
On the flop I raise, hoping someone has hit a set, two-pair or want to chase.
And obviously I raise something fairly large, to increase the probability of
getting all-in as well as getting value. If a few no-hopers folds that's fine.
The turn is just disgusting, but Q9 shouldn't be that common. Bet big or check
back to induce a bluff or a call on the river.
On the river I call, there isn't much alternative the way the hand's been
played.
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Victor Victoria
The best play would be to make a call unprofitable for a draw by making
combined true odds and implied odds negative. Of course moving in does that and
it also allows your opponent to make a huge mistake but the best play may be to
bet big enough just to make calling with a draw a mistake. I like betting about
%60 of the remainig stack here which turned out to be almost 1 1/2 times the
pot.
Of course then you must call the river no matter what comes. But even then the
opponent is not getting the right odds.
The Fred
I'd say: Fred, he could be on a straight draw and holding diamonds
I'd say: That explains the quick call on 4th there
See.
Then, next time I'd bet a big flush draw like I did the straight.
Sorry, I haven't read any poker books so I am not a professional :(
________________________________________________________________________
Zoloft
>
> Stacks: Mine : $500+ Mid position: $1k . Othere ~ $500 each.
>
> Mid position (aggressive player -raise any two suited connectors) opens
> for 20.
> Next player call. You are in cut - off with Ts,9s.
>
> What's your play?
>
> I called. Button and BB blind called. Pot is $80.
>
> Flop: JD,8c,7h.
>
> Mid position bets $25. What's your play?
I'm all in right there. If someone wants to call and draw out on me, so be
it. Otherwise, I'd rather win a small pot than lose a big one.
Linda Sherman
> $2-5 NLH.
>
> Stacks: Mine : $500+ Mid position: $1k . Othere ~ $500 each.
>
> Mid position (aggressive player -raise any two suited connectors) opens for 20.
> Next player call. You are in cut - off with Ts,9s.
>
> What's your play?
Call.
>
> I called. Button and BB blind called. Pot is $80.
>
> Flop: JD,8c,7h.
>
> Mid position bets $25. What's your play?
I'd make a substantial raise, to at least $100.
You can't fuck around with straights in multiway pots. Too many
turn-river combinations are bad for you. A lot of people fall in love
with flopped straights and try to get cute with them, but the fact that
the cards are bunched up on the flop creates problems.
> I raised $25 hoping for a reraise. Folded to Mid position who calls. $130 in
> pot.
If they have enough to reraise you, they have enough to call a big raise
on your part. It's not likely they can reraise you without AJ, 87 or an
overpair or set - all hands that would have a devil of a time laying
down to a sizeable raise on your part.
> Turn Td. Mid position checks. What's your play? Don't ask what I did?
This is one reason why you should have bet more on the turn. You don't
want some skanky gutshot draw getting there or a hand like KdQd picking
up a monster draw on the turn.
But since you flubbed the flop, you have no choice now but to move in
once the preflop raiser checks to you.
Linda
Gary Carson
Yes, a less than all in bet is enough from a perspective of setting the odds.
And I wouldn't argue with it.
But I still prefer just winning it now. The problem with less than all in is
that (like you said) you're calling the river now no matter what and if he
realizes that then he's not going to be bluffing the river. So if he's not
going to be bluffing the river you don't need to call automatically. It makes
my head hurt.
How much I prefer just all in on the turn depends on how good the other guy is.
The better he is the more I prefer just winning it now. The more confused he is
the more I'm willing to try to suck him along.
Gary Carson
http://www.garycarson.com
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Gary Carson
The point is to win the big ones and if you don't include that option in your
list of alternatives then you'll forever have trouble making the rent.
Gary Carson
http://www.garycarson.com
_______________________________________________________________
Zoloft
"Gary Carson" <garyc...@alumni.northwestern.edu> wrote in message
news:1151187974$817...@recpoker.com...
>
>
>
> On Jun 24 2006 3:37 PM, Zoloft wrote:
>
>> "Victor Victoria" <4308...@recpoker.com> wrote in message
>> news:1151145779$817...@recpoker.com...
>> >
>> > $2-5 NLH.
>> >
>> > Stacks: Mine : $500+ Mid position: $1k . Othere ~ $500 each.
>> >
>> > Mid position (aggressive player -raise any two suited connectors) opens
>> > for 20.
>> > Next player call. You are in cut - off with Ts,9s.
>> >
>> > What's your play?
>> >
>> > I called. Button and BB blind called. Pot is $80.
>> >
>> > Flop: JD,8c,7h.
>> >
>> > Mid position bets $25. What's your play?
>>
>> I'm all in right there. If someone wants to call and draw out on me, so
>> be
>> it. Otherwise, I'd rather win a small pot than lose a big one.
>
> The point is to win the big ones and if you don't include that option in
> your
> list of alternatives then you'll forever have trouble making the rent.
But what if you don't rent? Actually, I like moving in on the turn even
better.
Nick Wool
On Jun 24 2006 11:42 AM, Victor Victoria wrote:
>
> $2-5 NLH.
>
> Stacks: Mine : $500+ Mid position: $1k . Othere ~ $500 each.
>
> Mid position (aggressive player -raise any two suited connectors) opens for
> 20.
> Next player call. You are in cut - off with Ts,9s.
>
> What's your play?
>
> I called. Button and BB blind called. Pot is $80.
>
> Flop: JD,8c,7h.
>
> Mid position bets $25. What's your play?
>
> I raised $25 hoping for a reraise. Folded to Mid position who calls. $130 in
> pot.
>
> Turn Td. Mid position checks. What's your play? Don't ask what I did?
>
> O.K. I bet $75. Now this is about the worse bet that can be made here other
> than
> checking. I know that now and I knwe it then but I made it out of fear. Mid
> position staring at the turn card calls immediately. $280 in the pot.
>
> River 3d. Without hesitation Mid Position moves in. I have $350 left, what's
> my play? I didn't think I just called. He held 4d,5d.
>
> Critique my play please.
>
> VV
Flat call the bet at flop, hoping for raisers, or over callers. You are holding
the nuts, and is in no danger of being outdrawn unless someone holds 2
pairs/sets. They will most probably raise if that is the case.
On the turn, if MP bets, which is likely given you smooth called his flop bet
and he has now picked up a flush draw, you can move in. The results would
probably be the same, but at least you got your money in as the big favourite.
If he checks, overbet the pot slightly, so that he is not even getting the right
implied odds to call. You are now committed to pot, and I would call any bet he
cares to make at river whatever hits. If he checks and the 3 diamond hit or the
board pairs, I would check behind him.
Now to the way the hand actaully played out, If you had to put in a small bet at
turn as you did, check behind him at river when the 3rd diamond hit, smooth call
a small bet, but muck to a big bet. I would not have been in this situation,
but if I were, that would have been the way I would have played it.
John Forsberg
On Jun 24 2006 11:23 PM, Linda Sherman wrote:
> If they have enough to reraise you, they have enough to call a big raise
> on your part. It's not likely they can reraise you without AJ, 87 or an
> overpair or set - all hands that would have a devil of a time laying
> down to a sizeable raise on your part.
AJ or bottom two does certainly not have a devil of a time laying down to
someone who called a raise + call pre-flop and then raises the opener in a
frickin' five way pot when the board is medium, co-ordinated cards in a rainbow.
A set is pretty standard and that AJ is beat is close to a lock. I'd say his
*average* hand should be in the neighbourhood of a set or possibly bottom two.
Single pairs and bottom two are utterly crushed against this range, and even
when they are ahead they have epically reverse implied odds.
Going broke with a single pair here is just super-donkish. Not to mention not
pushing back pre-flop with QQ+ when a quite loose players opens fairly big and
is called in several spots. Then you know that you beat everyone except maybe
the opener, whose range you crush anyway, plus the pot is a minimum of 13,5bb
before it gets to you. If anyone in the hand except the opener holds an over
pair they're just unspeakably bad.
If you hold a single pair on the flop you're in a situation where four other
hands went to the flop, all of them speculative. If one of those guys wakes up
here, he's not holding a pair. Also, habitual bluffers already had a golden
opportunity before the flop (ie, loose opener + several guaranteed speculative
hands) so they're unlikely to be around in this sequence.
Max Coin
I was thinking the same thing, after reading po's post. I can see how your
opponent made a ballsy yet suicidal play. Alot has to go you your way to make
4-5 suited in middle position work. You might have bet more on the turn but did
you want him to fold? You were a favorite to win the hand and you'd hate to
chase him off with a big bet. You could have folded to his all in bet on
the river unless you were certain your opponent was bluffing.
Linda Sherman
>
> On Jun 24 2006 11:23 PM, Linda Sherman wrote:
>
>
>
>>If they have enough to reraise you, they have enough to call a big raise
>>on your part. It's not likely they can reraise you without AJ, 87 or an
>>overpair or set - all hands that would have a devil of a time laying
>>down to a sizeable raise on your part.
>
>
>
> Going broke with a single pair here is just super-donkish.
True, but the donks do it all the time in the smaller-stakes games.
Hell, sometimes they don't fold second or bottom pair.
It's probably a mistake to assume that your opponents play as well as
you do. If it's not a mistake to assume that, you're in the wrong game.
Linda
Zoloft
> True, but the donks do it all the time in the smaller-stakes games. Hell,
> sometimes they don't fold second or bottom pair.
See it all the time, day in day out. I don't think of them as donks, though.
I think of them as the good guys.
> It's probably a mistake to assume that your opponents play as well as you
> do. If it's not a mistake to assume that, you're in the wrong game.
Damn straight. It's too easy to find a good game to waste time and/or money
in a bad game.
Victor Victoria
On Jun 25 2006 10:53 AM, Max Coin wrote:
>
>
>
> I was thinking the same thing, after reading po's post. I can see how your
> opponent made a ballsy yet suicidal play. Alot has to go you your way to make
> 4-5 suited in middle position work. You might have bet more on the turn but
> did you want him to fold?
Now you sound like my buddy. The point is not whether I wanted him to fold
although you are correct I didn't want him to fold. What I wanted was for him to
make a mistake. My play correct was to bet an amount that would insure he did
make a mistake given the range of hands that he might hold.
>You were a favorite to win the hand and you'd hate to
> chase him off with a big bet.
True.
> You could have folded to his all in bet on
> the river unless you were certain your opponent was bluffing.
Yes, except i'm not sure I can get away from this hand the way it went down.
Maybe if the board paired. I'm not sure.
Max,
I noticed in another post to another poster that you were very heavy on the bad
language. I was a bit shocked to say the least. Some unsolicetd advice, don't
let these internet forum's turn you into something you are not. You may lose
more than you gain. Take it from a man of experience.
VV
Max Coin
Thanks for the advice, I'll be more careful from now on. As for PoMoFo laughing
all the way to the cashier I would like to know just how much that play costs
him in the long run. Sure, you win a big pot but unless you use that play only
when you are certain then you are taking a big risk. You might not have bet
enough on the turn to get him to make a mistake but he still did in my opinion.
That said, I need to make that play once in a while!
John Forsberg
these. Because his opponents doesn't punish him in the least. He has a
super-weak opening range and not one of four(!) people who plays the hand
decides to punish him for his weak opening standards. And even on a fairly
draw-heavy flop and an extremely drawy turn he is not charged much. Sure *this
hand* he was out of line on the flop, but a lot of the time he'll be getting the
best of it in these sequences. And there is a *lot* of hands he'll be getting
the best of it against these kind of wimpy, passive play.
When someone is loose you really need to re-raise him, calling isn't enough to
take advantage properly.
As for the comment about "unless you were certain your opponent was bluffing"
it's just dead wrong. There has to be a 35% probability of him bluffing or
having a worse hand, that's it.
Besides, chucking everything but flushes once the third runner-runner flush card
hits is super-weak and very easy to exploit.
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thenutlow
Victor Victoria wrote:
> $2-5 NLH.
>
> Stacks: Mine : $500+ Mid position: $1k . Othere ~ $500 each.
>
> Mid position (aggressive player -raise any two suited connectors) opens for 20.
> Next player call. You are in cut - off with Ts,9s.
>
> What's your play?
>
> I called. Button and BB blind called. Pot is $80.
>
> Flop: JD,8c,7h.
>
> Mid position bets $25. What's your play?
>
> I raised $25 hoping for a reraise. Folded to Mid position who calls. $130 in
> pot.
>
> Turn Td. Mid position checks. What's your play? Don't ask what I did?
>
> O.K. I bet $75. Now this is about the worse bet that can be made here other than
> checking. I know that now and I knwe it then but I made it out of fear. Mid
> position staring at the turn card calls immediately. $280 in the pot.
>
> River 3d. Without hesitation Mid Position moves in. I have $350 left, what's
> my play? I didn't think I just called. He held 4d,5d.
>
> Critique my play please.
>
> VV
preflop is fine
on the flop, Its all about balance. Min raising when you have draws
buys you a free turn a large % of the time, so minraising here with a
made hand makes sense if you want to balance your strat out, or if you
just want to rep a draw so they can try and bet you off it later on. If
you aren't doing it with draws, then you are just sending a begging
letter to your opponent.. and if they are any good, you aren't getting
much more out of them after the flop (assuming the call on the flop)
The turn, I dont really mind it.. checking lets them draw for free, and
betting wont really get action from many hands that you beat, but at
least is stops giving a free card to hands that can over-take you, and
this is important if you find yourself not folding the river to big
bets
River.. sometimes people bet here to get you off a chop, sometimes
people bluff here.. more likely, they have you beat. Go with your read,
its a live game rite? is he more animated? follow your instincts. In a
vaccum, it seems like a fold, as a high % of the time its a chop, and a
high% of the time you lose. A very low % of the time you win. Risk vs
Reward
Max Coin
On Jun 26 2006 6:42 AM, John Forsberg wrote:
> It's not at all suicidal to play 54s in middle position in circumstances like
> these. Because his opponents doesn't punish him in the least. He has a
> super-weak opening range and not one of four(!) people who plays the hand
> decides to punish him for his weak opening standards. And even on a fairly
> draw-heavy flop and an extremely drawy turn he is not charged much. Sure *this
> hand* he was out of line on the flop, but a lot of the time he'll be getting
> the
> best of it in these sequences. And there is a *lot* of hands he'll be getting
> the best of it against these kind of wimpy, passive play.
>
> When someone is loose you really need to re-raise him, calling isn't enough to
> take advantage properly.
>
> As for the comment about "unless you were certain your opponent was bluffing"
> it's just dead wrong. There has to be a 35% probability of him bluffing or
> having a worse hand, that's it.
>
35% probability of a bluff on the river? How do you get that number?
> Besides, chucking everything but flushes once the third runner-runner flush
> card
> hits is super-weak and very easy to exploit.
>
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Nick Wool
> > As for the comment about "unless you were certain your opponent was
> > bluffing"
> > it's just dead wrong. There has to be a 35% probability of him bluffing or
> > having a worse hand, that's it.
> >
>
> 35% probability of a bluff on the river? How do you get that number?
>
>
not have be be certain that your opponent is bluffing to call. If you think
your opponent bluffs or bets out with a worse hand 35% of the time, then calling
is in order.
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ChrisBrown
> The best play would be to make a call unprofitable for a draw by making
> combined true odds and implied odds negative.
given that you put him on suited connectors (though I'd think pairs, KQ,
JT AK etc are possible as well) it's not that likely that he just picked
up a flush draw. I haven't figured it out but I'd guess it's a bit worse
than the 1 in 4 figure that pops in my head at this point. I'd bet 3/4
the pot on the turn, if he called then i'd be wary of any diamond or 9.
On the flop I'd prefer a smooth call. unless he's a moron who gets too
happy with a pair, what could he possibly have to merit calling with at
this point?
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Max Coin
On Jun 26 2006 9:08 PM, Nick Wool wrote:
> > >
> > > As for the comment about "unless you were certain your opponent was
> > > bluffing"
> > > it's just dead wrong. There has to be a 35% probability of him bluffing or
> > > having a worse hand, that's it.
> > >
> >
> > 35% probability of a bluff on the river? How do you get that number?
> >
> >
> He didn't, because that was not what he was saying. His point was that you do
> not have be be certain that your opponent is bluffing to call. If you think
> your opponent bluffs or bets out with a worse hand 35% of the time, then
> calling
> is in order.
''Absolutely certain'' was a bad choice of words and I get your point about your
opponent bluffing 35% of the time to make calling the all in bet but it sounded
like VV new he (she?) was beat and should have folded.
ALMOST FREE BOOKS
>>implied odds to call. You are now committed to pot, and I would call any bet he
>>cares to make at river whatever hits.
If you're going to commit yourself on the turn, just go all in right
there
Nick Wool
why? you know you are ahead, you want a call, right? If you know your all in
is going to be called, then yes, push it in. Otherwise just bet the largest
amount that you think he'll call, and being careful not to offer him the right
odds (expressed plus implied)
Gary Carson
On Jun 29 2006 10:19 AM, Nick Wool wrote:
>
>
> On Jun 28 2006 8:01 AM, ALMOST FREE BOOKS wrote:
>
> > >>If he checks, overbet the pot slightly, so that he is not even getting the
> > >>right
> > >>implied odds to call. You are now committed to pot, and I would call any
> > >>bet he
> > >>cares to make at river whatever hits.
> >
> >
> > If you're going to commit yourself on the turn, just go all in right
> > there
>
> why? you know you are ahead, you want a call, right? If you know your all in
> is going to be called, then yes, push it in. Otherwise just bet the largest
> amount that you think he'll call, and being careful not to offer him the right
> odds (expressed plus implied)
Why does it matter if he's getting the right odds?
Let's just say he's exactly a 2-1 dog, the pot has $50, you bet $50. You'll win
that $150 pot 2/3 of the time, which gives you an equity of $100, you paid $50,
so the EV of giving him the right odds and having him call is $50 (to keep
things simple let's assume you saw his hand and won't call if he hits his hand
and there's only one card left to come).
If you bet $51 and he doesn't call you win the $50.
If you bet $47 and he calls the pot is now $144 and your equity is 2/3's of that
-- $96. You paid $47, leaving you $49 in EV.
So, you don't want to offer him less than the right odds, but offering the right
odds is fine if that's the most he'll call. Well, maybe not fine, it does carry
higher variance, but it's EV neutral.
Of course calculating the right odds isn't easy, since it requires doing a
weighted average of all possible draws he might have. The right odds isn't
determined by finding out later what he had, it's determined by using all the
information you have available at the time.
Gary Carson
http://www.garycarson.com
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Nick Wool
> Gary Carson
> http://www.garycarson.com
>
>
er....why are you happy to play an EV neutral hand when you can play it +EV?
You might as well as play chess or snakes and ladders if passing the time is
your main objective. I thought the whole point of poker is get your money in at
better than the right odds?
Assuming your assumptions are valid, and that he will only call with the right
odds, and fold otherwise, which of the following situation would you prefer?
1/ Taking the pot down now by not offering the right odds.
2/ Give him the right odds to call and play a netural EV hand.
You are the maths expert, which of those offer the better EV?
And this is without even considering the horrible implication of implied odds.
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Gary Carson
On Jun 29 2006 5:06 PM, Nick Wool wrote:
> > Why does it matter if he's getting the right odds?
> >
> > Let's just say he's exactly a 2-1 dog, the pot has $50, you bet $50. You'll
> > win
> > that $150 pot 2/3 of the time, which gives you an equity of $100, you paid
> > $50,
> > so the EV of giving him the right odds and having him call is $50 (to keep
> > things simple let's assume you saw his hand and won't call if he hits his
> > hand
> > and there's only one card left to come).
> >
> > If you bet $51 and he doesn't call you win the $50.
> >
> > If you bet $47 and he calls the pot is now $144 and your equity is 2/3's of
> > that
> > -- $96. You paid $47, leaving you $49 in EV.
> >
> > So, you don't want to offer him less than the right odds, but offering the
> > right
> > odds is fine if that's the most he'll call. Well, maybe not fine, it does
> > carry
> > higher variance, but it's EV neutral.
> >
> >
> >
> er....why are you happy to play an EV neutral hand when you can play it +EV?
> You might as well as play chess or snakes and ladders if passing the time is
> your main objective. I thought the whole point of poker is get your money in
> at
> better than the right odds?
>
> Assuming your assumptions are valid, and that he will only call with the right
> odds, and fold otherwise, which of the following situation would you prefer?
My assumptions aren't valid or invalid. They're just assumptions I made to make
the arithmetic easy.
The only point being that there's nothing wrong with giving him the right odds.
>
> 1/ Taking the pot down now by not offering the right odds.
>
> 2/ Give him the right odds to call and play a netural EV hand.
>
> You are the maths expert, which of those offer the better EV?
The one that gives him a chance to bluff the river the 2/3rds of the time he
misses.
Or maybe it's the other one.
Lot's of things make a difference in the choice but whether or not you're giving
him the right odds isn't one of the important things.
>
> And this is without even considering the horrible implication of implied odds.
If he bluffs too much I'm the one with implied odds.
Pot odds just aren't that important in no limit except in a very approximate
way.
Here, I'll prove it mathematically.
Int (f(x)dx) = p + q, therefore, x < 0 or x = 0 or x > 0, therefore, 1/(p + q) =
1 and pot odds don't matter much.
If that's good enough for 2+2 it should be good enough for you.
>
Gary Carson
http://www.garycarson.com
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Nick Wool
To do that, we must assume that your assumptions will hold, otherwise the rest
of your sentence is nonsense.
> The only point being that there's nothing wrong with giving him the right
> odds.
There is, as I have pointed out.
> >
> > 1/ Taking the pot down now by not offering the right odds.
> >
> > 2/ Give him the right odds to call and play a netural EV hand.
> >
> > You are the maths expert, which of those offer the better EV?
>
> The one that gives him a chance to bluff the river the 2/3rds of the time he
> misses.
Which was not in your original assumptions.
> Or maybe it's the other one.
>
> Lot's of things make a difference in the choice but whether or not you're
> giving
> him the right odds isn't one of the important things.
This from a so called 'professional' writer on poker?
> >
> > And this is without even considering the horrible implication of implied
> > odds.
>
> If he bluffs too much I'm the one with implied odds.
Again, this wasnt part of your original premises.
> Pot odds just aren't that important in no limit except in a very approximate
> way.
Who said they were? Except that you shuold not be offering him 'approximately'
the right odds to call.
> Here, I'll prove it mathematically.
>
> Int (f(x)dx) = p + q, therefore, x < 0 or x = 0 or x > 0, therefore, 1/(p + q)
> =
> 1 and pot odds don't matter much.
>
> If that's good enough for 2+2 it should be good enough for you.
Come now, I had expected better, even from you....2+2 and dear Carson? Now that
would be a sight to behold.
> Gary Carson
> http://www.garycarson.com
>
>
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