Google Groups no longer supports new Usenet posts or subscriptions. Historical content remains viewable.
Dismiss
Surprisingly, Mickey Day fails me (A Trip Report from Hollywood Casino at Charles Town, WV)
30 views
Skip to first unread message
Andrew
Dec 5, 2012, 7:43:33 PM12/5/12
to
Reading Mickey Day's "Master Craps with Einstein" is an education in
itself and a lot of fun too. I love that book.
So I was more than a little surprised when, after committing his
"E=MC(SQ)" to memory it died a long slow death at the tables.
Specifically, using his 1-1-2 Flat Pass/Come bet progression, at first
I seemed to be playing cleverly as fast 7-outs were always covered.
I caught a few grim looks from other players getting zapped on Place
bets while I kept ending up even at worst.
Than the dark side came out. Over & over again, all 3 bets - $10PL,
$10Come, $20 Come would go up, often with 7/11's parlayed on them,
only to 7-out and be down $40 each time on a bankroll of $800 to
start. To me, $800 means basic unit bet is never over 40 and really I
would start with $20 until ahead. At $40 a pop it didn't take long to
drop almost $300 down and wonder if it was time to walk away.
Finally, I wandered over to the Penny Slots where $5 & some luck kept
me occupied for about 20 minutes until I returned with my bad vibes
all gone and ready to play some more. BUT - this time I simply went
with the classic PL+Odds, started low (10+10), went up as my bankroll
went up until I was at max(x2) odds, trying occasional Come bets too,
& even some Hardways and Crap Checks when I was shooting. After a
couple hours I was up $350, started to fade back and quit $200 up for
a 25% profit for the day and a whole afternoon of play.
Two days later I was back and ended up another $200up although I admit
to some ridiculously lucky Field bets which I only did because it
seemed like all the shooters were throwing was 5s, 9s, and 10s for a
long stretch and I made a few bets that got me back to even including
twice hitting 9 & 10 points on both PL+X2Odds with working Field bets
at the same time.and then went conservative PL+Odds to end up ahead.
Total profit for 2 sessions = 50% and now, If I get stuck with only
$15 or $25 tables open I have a lot more breathing room so I don't
play with scared money if the mins are high for me.
Another completely supersticious result of these trips was I have had
it with using hardway sets for shooting - They just never work out !
More than that it seemed that EVERY one of the best Rollers (there are
always 1 or 2 at each table) always, no matter how they set the dice
would consistently throw them in a slow, lofting manner that seemed to
allow them to settle quickly to a stop. Nothing scientific about it I
guess but it is the only thing I could see they always had in common.
Even more, it has been working once in a while for me too. Go figure.
I make another trip sometime next week. I'll be out of town til then.
Thanks for reading,
Andrew
itself and a lot of fun too. I love that book.
So I was more than a little surprised when, after committing his
"E=MC(SQ)" to memory it died a long slow death at the tables.
Specifically, using his 1-1-2 Flat Pass/Come bet progression, at first
I seemed to be playing cleverly as fast 7-outs were always covered.
I caught a few grim looks from other players getting zapped on Place
bets while I kept ending up even at worst.
Than the dark side came out. Over & over again, all 3 bets - $10PL,
$10Come, $20 Come would go up, often with 7/11's parlayed on them,
only to 7-out and be down $40 each time on a bankroll of $800 to
start. To me, $800 means basic unit bet is never over 40 and really I
would start with $20 until ahead. At $40 a pop it didn't take long to
drop almost $300 down and wonder if it was time to walk away.
Finally, I wandered over to the Penny Slots where $5 & some luck kept
me occupied for about 20 minutes until I returned with my bad vibes
all gone and ready to play some more. BUT - this time I simply went
with the classic PL+Odds, started low (10+10), went up as my bankroll
went up until I was at max(x2) odds, trying occasional Come bets too,
& even some Hardways and Crap Checks when I was shooting. After a
couple hours I was up $350, started to fade back and quit $200 up for
a 25% profit for the day and a whole afternoon of play.
Two days later I was back and ended up another $200up although I admit
to some ridiculously lucky Field bets which I only did because it
seemed like all the shooters were throwing was 5s, 9s, and 10s for a
long stretch and I made a few bets that got me back to even including
twice hitting 9 & 10 points on both PL+X2Odds with working Field bets
at the same time.and then went conservative PL+Odds to end up ahead.
Total profit for 2 sessions = 50% and now, If I get stuck with only
$15 or $25 tables open I have a lot more breathing room so I don't
play with scared money if the mins are high for me.
Another completely supersticious result of these trips was I have had
it with using hardway sets for shooting - They just never work out !
More than that it seemed that EVERY one of the best Rollers (there are
always 1 or 2 at each table) always, no matter how they set the dice
would consistently throw them in a slow, lofting manner that seemed to
allow them to settle quickly to a stop. Nothing scientific about it I
guess but it is the only thing I could see they always had in common.
Even more, it has been working once in a while for me too. Go figure.
I make another trip sometime next week. I'll be out of town til then.
Thanks for reading,
Andrew
Alan Shank
Dec 11, 2012, 8:40:23 PM12/11/12
to
On Wed, 05 Dec 2012 19:43:33 -0500, Andrew <Re...@Group.only> wrote:
>Reading Mickey Day's "Master Craps with Einstein" is an education in
>itself and a lot of fun too. I love that book.
>
>So I was more than a little surprised when, after committing his
>"E=MC(SQ)" to memory it died a long slow death at the tables.
Why is that surprising? No progression of any bet or combination of
>Reading Mickey Day's "Master Craps with Einstein" is an education in
>itself and a lot of fun too. I love that book.
>
>So I was more than a little surprised when, after committing his
>"E=MC(SQ)" to memory it died a long slow death at the tables.
bets changes the expectation one iota, and the longer you play the
less likely you are to be ahead.
>Specifically, using his 1-1-2 Flat Pass/Come bet progression, at first
>I seemed to be playing cleverly as fast 7-outs were always covered.
>I caught a few grim looks from other players getting zapped on Place
>bets while I kept ending up even at worst.
>
>Than the dark side came out. Over & over again, all 3 bets - $10PL,
>$10Come, $20 Come would go up, often with 7/11's parlayed on them,
>only to 7-out and be down $40 each time on a bankroll of $800 to
>start. To me, $800 means basic unit bet is never over 40 and really I
>would start with $20 until ahead. At $40 a pop it didn't take long to
>drop almost $300 down and wonder if it was time to walk away.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Andrew
Dec 14, 2012, 4:38:11 PM12/14/12
to
Thanks for the reply.
Basically what's always worked best for me is a modifiied Grinder type
of play. That means starting with min. PL with X1 odds until ahead,
increasing to X2 when results are going my way, falling back to X1
or even no odds when things inevitably turn cold.
Along the way I will play more Hardways and/or craps checks or
Hi-Lo Yo's when ahead. My goal is always to quit at least 25% ahead
on total bankroll but of course I use a rolling stop loss because I
think you should never quit when you're winning. Occasionally, I
might try to rob a Field bet when you get those kinda runs that "seem"
to favor that. I rarely Place bet as it just never seems to work out
for me - go figure. The idea is to play PLX2odds and maybe Comex2 odds
and when the table is right this is usually my best play.
Very unscientific I am sure but I'm currently doubled on my small
bankroll and looking good. Previously, I used my winnings for bills
but this time I'm going to try and see how far I could get with it.
But I don't see how more play is worse sense you can vary your bets.
I always thought the trade off was more play time versus greater
variance. Couldn't more play time mean more small wins and more
variance mean more losses as easily as their reverse outcomes?
and Merry Xmas to You & Yours,
Andrew
Alan Shank
Dec 23, 2012, 2:08:48 PM12/23/12
to
On Fri, 14 Dec 2012 16:38:11 -0500, Andrew <Re...@Group.only> wrote:
>Hi Alan,
>
>Thanks for the reply.
>Basically what's always worked best for me is a modifiied Grinder type
>of play. That means starting with min. PL with X1 odds until ahead,
>increasing to X2 when results are going my way, falling back to X1
>or even no odds when things inevitably turn cold.
>
>Along the way I will play more Hardways and/or craps checks or
>Hi-Lo Yo's when ahead. My goal is always to quit at least 25% ahead
>on total bankroll but of course I use a rolling stop loss because I
>think you should never quit when you're winning. Occasionally, I
>might try to rob a Field bet when you get those kinda runs that "seem"
>to favor that. I rarely Place bet as it just never seems to work out
>for me - go figure. The idea is to play PLX2odds and maybe Comex2 odds
>and when the table is right this is usually my best play.
The fact that place bets have not worked out for you in the past is no
>Hi Alan,
>
>Thanks for the reply.
>Basically what's always worked best for me is a modifiied Grinder type
>of play. That means starting with min. PL with X1 odds until ahead,
>increasing to X2 when results are going my way, falling back to X1
>or even no odds when things inevitably turn cold.
>
>Along the way I will play more Hardways and/or craps checks or
>Hi-Lo Yo's when ahead. My goal is always to quit at least 25% ahead
>on total bankroll but of course I use a rolling stop loss because I
>think you should never quit when you're winning. Occasionally, I
>might try to rob a Field bet when you get those kinda runs that "seem"
>to favor that. I rarely Place bet as it just never seems to work out
>for me - go figure. The idea is to play PLX2odds and maybe Comex2 odds
>and when the table is right this is usually my best play.
indication of the future. In general, one's own experience is too
small a sample from which to draw conclusions, but it's difficult not
to.
>Very unscientific I am sure but I'm currently doubled on my small
>bankroll and looking good. Previously, I used my winnings for bills
>but this time I'm going to try and see how far I could get with it.
>But I don't see how more play is worse sense you can vary your bets.
The more you play, the luckier you have to be to get or remain ahead.
>bankroll and looking good. Previously, I used my winnings for bills
>but this time I'm going to try and see how far I could get with it.
>But I don't see how more play is worse sense you can vary your bets.
That's a simple fact.
>I always thought the trade off was more play time versus greater
>variance. Couldn't more play time mean more small wins and more
>variance mean more losses as easily as their reverse outcomes?
losses. High variance combined with low HA gives the highest
probability of overcoming the expected loss, but is balanced by the
losses being of greater magnitude.
If you use Wincraps to simulate your method of play for 10 or 20,000
sessions, you can see the shape of the resulting graph. That's what's
"out there", but the dice will select for you a relatively tiny sample
of those possible sessions.
>
>and Merry Xmas to You & Yours,
>
Same to you,
>and Merry Xmas to You & Yours,
>
Alan
0 new messages