Jud - Mr. Intrinsic-
You'll get piles that way.
--
Jeff R.
>
> You'll get piles that way.
>
> --
> Jeff R.
LOL!!!! Piles of ca$h if and when I ever sell.
If you don't sell, then it's a worthless hunk of metal.
JAM
Not really true. Holding PMs as personal savings, potential future
spending power and a margin of personal comfort and safety are always
valuable considerations.
oly
How true!
But don't forget that the nutritional value of Au or Ag metal is close
to 0% -- think about that when you try to decide how long you want to
hold the metal, and under what circumstances you might eventually want
to sell it.
However, I can see paying for lots of stuff with gold or silver -- talk
to just about anyone who had to flee from his or her native country
during WWII or because of the communist revolution in Russia. All they
could take with them was what they could carry (and conceal) on their
bodies. Gold coins, precious stones and jewelry were items that really
came in handy. All that some of those people had to take with them were
the nicer pieces of silverware they had as family heirlooms, and maybe a
gold wedding ring or so.
Comparing the performance of most rare gold coins vs. ordinary gold
(e.g., VF/XF circulated, not rare, gold coins -- or gold bars) between
2004 and today, the circulated stuff/bars actually gained more per oz.
on the average (according to my own not too scientific calculations --
and assuming that the circulated stuff was acquired at prices close to
melt). Of course, there will always be exceptions...
I just recently cashed in some common gold stuff which I had bought back
in 2004-2005 in order to buy some rare Russian coins (on the order of
$2,000-$3,000 this year -- multiple purchases). You ALWAYS need
something in reserve in order to step in and buy something at auction
because you never know when it will become available. And usually, it is
when you don't have a lot of other spare cash (at least with me, that's
the way it usually is :) ).
But even if you don't collect coins, you should have at least some
physical gold in your portfolio. Although gold coins have a higher
buy/ask spread with dealers than bars do (per oz., that is), they have
the distinct advantage that you can buy them and sell them in smaller
quantities as need be.
Try to invest about $100-$200 per month in gold -- you won't regret it!
I agree and would also add silver (in the form of US coins or ASEs) to the mix.
A 1/10 oz AGE and a roll of silver half dollars every month or two will pay off
in the long run.
The FRNs you currently have in your wallet will everntually be worthless, maybe
not this year or even this decade but the handwriting is on the wall for those
that wish to read it.
personal savings, future spending cannot be realized unless you sell.
JAM
"will pay off"
Only when you sell.
JAM
No, it is just as likely that you'll swap or barter, not sell
outright.
Diamonds are forever. Greenies aren't forever.
Finally, up to the day you die, you're likely to want to sustain a
healthy "margin" of wealth. Smart people do that with tangibles, not
intangible financial instruments.
oly
What's the difference?
>
> Diamonds are forever. Greenies aren't forever.
>
> Finally, up to the day you die, you're likely to want to sustain a
> healthy "margin" of wealth. Smart people do that with tangibles, not
> intangible financial instruments.
>
> oly
maybe yes, maybe no.
Then your margin of wealth will be sold by your survivors. Better to
invest in a quality education than gold.
Gold is only worth what people think it is worth, just like any other
form of investment. Have you forgotton that ten years ago gold was worth
less than $300 an ounce? What will keep it from droping to that level
again?
JAM
We spend a lot of money on the child's tuition, thank you very much.
As a Fox Republican and Palin supporter, gotta keep the kid out of the
shitty fourth-class african american-ridden public school system here
in the lower 48.
oly
I have (several copies) of a book called "How to Invest in Gold Coins"
by Donald J. Hoppe. It was first written about 1968 and revised about
1973. I highly recommend owning and reading this book.
In this book, sovereigns were noted as selling at $12 to $14; U.S. $20
Libs at $70; and Mexican 50 pesos at $75 to $90.
In 2010, the prices of all of these coins is TWENTY TIMES as high.
Way back in 1968, Mr. Hoppe noted that the nervous Nellies were
wondering what happens if Gold falls back to $35 per ounce.
Here in the fianal days of 2010, the American financial system is
incorrigibly fucked.
The plan of the PTB is to print money until the cows come home; and
the cows haven't even telephoned any of their relatives recently.
Look at U.S. Treasury bond yields - at 10 year and 30 year maturities,
yields are UP 100 basis points plus in less than 60 days. This is
breaking a thirty year downwards trend. People are now openly
suspicious of America's debt and its currency. That will get much
worse very quickly now.
Finally, I must note that one of my copies of Hoppe's book was owned
and signed by the late Kamal Awash, who was a well-known specialist in
Seated Liberty coinages, many moons ago. A few of us can appreciate
nice bits like that.
oly
Obviously.
Speaking along those lines...
My local gun shop is doing a brisk business.
I went there the other day to get a new shotgun and ammunition and the place was
packed.
Granted, some of the business can be attributed to the holidays but IMO people
are getting scared.
It won't take much to push them over the edge.
Even though the government's contrived CPI shows low, almost non-existent
inflation, the price of raw commodities are rising rapidly - so it's only a
matter of time until finished goods and food reflect this.
The price of gasoline by me has gone up 15% in the last few months.
The bill will eventually come due for all those FRNs being cranked out by
Obama's minions.
Gold, and to a less degree, siler, have been proven to retain value over the
long term.
My personal feeling is that silver actually has more upside potential than gold
and could easily top its old high of $50/oz if panic sets in.
> The price of gasoline by me has gone up 15% in the last few months.
Speaking of which, and going totally OT, it's been quite some time
since anyone has posted local prices for gasoline. Here it is selling
for over $3 per gallon, most places at $3.07-$3.10, but have seen
$3.15 at many gas stations. On a side note, I just got back from
vacation in Jamaica where gas is selling for J$90+ per liter, and the
Jamaican dollar is @ J$81:$1US. Without getting my calculator out,
that comes to about $4.00 per gallon.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
$3.29 for name brand regular by me.
No name gas is about $3.25.
Diesel is around $4
______________
About $3.05 regular in No. Virginia. It helps having a card that rebates 5%
(15¢/gal) plus some local grocery stores offering a 10¢ per gallon discount
at local Shell stations for every $100 of groceries you buy. At present I
have enough credits for a 50¢ per gallon discount, considering I would have
been buying the same groceries anyway. Just small $$ amounts in the overall
picture, but it helps ease the pain.
My Exxon credit card likewise offers a 15¢/gal rebate.
Like you, I figure I'm gonna buy the gas anyway, so I may as well get the
discount, which based on my usage adds up to about $5.00.month.
Springpatch Illinois @ $2.83 and nine-tenths this AM (12/16/10), but
everybody usually raises price in unison on Thurdays about noon.
Could be 15 cents higher when I get back into town tonight. I am
working out near Quincy, IL and the little burgs and hamlets out here
are all steady @ $2.98 for the last ten days.
And yes, this is the Springpatch where our Mayor killed himself
Tuesday morning.
oly
Yep, the gasoline swindlers all got together today and went up to
$3.09 and nine-tenths here in Springpatch.
Favorably, I have more than enough gasoline on board to get back to
the towns where they're still @ $2.989.
oly
just filled up today $3.04
Yep, the gasoline swindlers all got together today and went up to
$3.09 and nine-tenths here in Springpatch.
Favorably, I have more than enough gasoline on board to get back to
the towns where they're still @ $2.989.
______________
Ouch! I'm driving to Denver in a couple days and usually stop for the night
somewhere around Mt. Vernon on US64 in Illinois before hitting St. Louis the
next morning. At least my credit card gives a 5% discount on gasoline no
matter the brand.
Your route is well south (one hour +) of Springpatch. Springpatch has
a really well-known group of price gougers and colluders. The "fix"
occurs like clockwork and nobody in authority ever does much about
it. In nearby towns like Lincoln, Illinois, genuine gasoline price
"wars" occur regulary. But not here.
But, I would look at carefully at gasoline prices in Ohio and Indiana
and then the best deal would be to fill up completely once you are
past St. Looie, as gasoline taxes are still about 15 cents less per
gallon in MO than IL. The difference is less than it used to be, but
still favors MO.
I say bypass the gas stations in IL and confound Governor Quinn. Fill
those tanks round St. Charles, MO.
Good luck on the weather during your trip. It's a nice early
summertime drive, more of a dicey adventure this time of the year.
oly
In Lincoln, Illinois, not only do gasoline price wars occur
"regularly", but also in mid-grade and premium too!!!
oly
Nice job of avoiding answering my question.
Ten year ago gold was less than $300 and ounce.
What will keep it from dropping to that level again?
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au75-pres.gif
JAM
Your question isn't worthy of much consideration, which is why we've
went on to another topic.
Gold never went back to $35 in the 1960s and it won't go back to $1000
now, let alone $300. However, it is the policies and goals of the
present board of governors of the Federal Reserve Bank that will
continue to devalue the dollar and elevate gold. Neither the
President nor the Congress want the process of debt creation and
monetization to stop either (with the exception of the Honorable Ron
Paul).
Eventually, the self-defense reactions of the remainder of the world
will send the dollar into a Zimbabwe-like depreciation.
There is nothing any individual American can really do about this,
except recognize the process early and hedge one's self.
oly
>Nice job of avoiding answering my question.
>Ten year ago gold was less than $300 and ounce.
>What will keep it from dropping to that level again?
>http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au75-pres.gif
Thanks for the graph! I was remembering that it skyrocketted to what I
THOUGHT I remembered as $800, then fell back in the 300 level, as you point
out. Obviously frenzies don't last forever, at least not so far in history.
There's always talk of hedging against disaster, paper money is worthless,
yada-yada. So, let's say the entire world's economy collapses. People are
starving to death and violence is everywhere. Am I going to offer my
stockpile of canned goods to someone offering me a gold coin? Can I eat it?
I just sold all of my silver (well, I found 2-3-4 more ounces, dammit) and I
was worried it had already peaked. I guess I was all wrong, but I was happy
to get out at $25-27. If it goes to $50 and never goes down, oh well, I've
made my money (after 15 years) and I'll be happy. While I owned it, though,
I just got the feeling the bottom was about to fall out. It would be
interesting to see it settle back down to $12-15, eh?
... but not until after the holidays and I can unload these last couple of
pieces!
Nick
I too expect volatility in the price of silver. We will no doubt see
days where the price per troy ounce fluctuates by two dollars or more
in a single day. That happened here back in 1980 and it will happen
again.
However...
Germans who sold their pre-war silver mark coins in 1919 got a nice
premium price in paper, and most lived to be called dummkopfs in just
a short time.
Some of the really dumb Germans probably spent their pre-war coins for
face value too.
There is a mathematical deficit, compounded by interest, that is
furiously eating up the finances of the Federal government and the
individual States. Rising interest rates on government bonds will
accelerate this process in the very near future. Ignore this mounting
deficit at your peril.
oly
P.S. The Magic 8 Ball says that silver will be under a lot of
downside pressure in 2011. Won't hit $35 per troy ounce, might go as
low a $15.
Dang!
oly
Only when gasoline goes back to $1.00 a gallon.
> Speaking of which, and going totally OT, it's been quite some
> time since anyone has posted local prices for gasoline.
I just paid $3.24 a gallon at a Shell station, but my car
requires premium.
--
Mike Benveniste -- m...@murkyether.com (Clarification Required)
Its name is Public opinion. It is held in reverence. It settles
everything. Some think it is the voice of God. -- Mark Twain
AUD$5.00 / US gallon with a 10-20% variation throughout the week.
That was unleaded + 10% ethanol
Premium is more like $5.50.
(AUD$ is effectively parity with US$ right now)
--
Jeff R.
(Sydney)
So, it's not the intrinsic value of gold that sets the price of gold.
Just like any other commodity, it's value is based on perception and faith.
JAM
The old adage is to buy low and sell high. Unfortunately for most they buy high and sell
low.
Near exponential growth cannot be sustained.
JAM
You seem to enjoy stating the obvious as if it was a profound insight on your
part.
Just sayin...
No, Gold's value is based upon its usefulness, scarcity and demand.
People have to use lots of brains and sweat to get gold.
People have been demanding gold since before the first Pharaoh ever
sat on any damn throne.
Why do you think that the paper dollar will maintain its present
value? Most dollars are created by making electronic blips in
computers in dicey institutions known as banks. Dollars are a lazy
man's swindle compared to Gold. If ever perception and faith were
everything!!!
oly
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gold & silver have been regarded as wealth since prehistoric times.
No amount of government blather will change that perception.
Nevertheless, the value of PMs is entirely based upon perception.
Remember, there is nothing good or bad but thinking makes it so.
Let's face it, unlike food, air & water, people don't need PMs in their daily
lives.
PMs remain a relatively stable store of value solely because people have
traditionally regarded it as such.
If the shit hits the fan, I'd bet the farm that ammunition, guns and food would
be readily traded for gold and silver.
Global fiat currency is a relatively new phenomenon.
If there is historic precedent for a fiat currency that didn't ultimately fail,
I haven't read about it.
My personal belief is that FRNs are ultimately doomed to failure and that the
USA will experience hyperinflation due to that.
Investing in the stocks of PM producing companies is probably a safe bet.
Keeping some physical PMs as part of your portfolio is wise.
Germany's currency was totally destroyed twice during the 20th
Century.
Russia's currency was totally destroyed twice during the 20th Century.
Mexico's currency was MOL destroyed once during the 20th Century (I
won't say totally, but close to it - and this is a fairly recent event
- 1980s and early 1990s).
France's currency was MOL destroyed once during the 20th Century (I
won't say totally, but again close to it - it's a long sad story).
Those nation states survived those dark days, but many of their
citizens did not.
Of course, there are worse stories of historical hyperinflation, but
most of those states were second or third world places and not quite
as important as the states specifically mentioned above. The deaths
of their citizens which resulted from the intentional abuse of paper
money were, of course, just as absolute as the deaths of Germans,
Russians, Frenchmen.
Anyone who doesn't care to hedge their dollar holdings against an
uncertain economic future - feel free to ignore the obvious.
They say you can't rent an empty safe deposit box in Germany today.
I'm just sure the happy Germans are just stuffing those safe deposit
box full of Euro banknotes.
oly
In my example, I am torn whether or not to mention Austria and
Hungary. The amazing stories of what happened there in the 1920s seem
to me to have a lot of applicability to the modern United States of
America. But most people only study those two inflations in
conjunction with, or a afterthought to, the Weimar Germany
Hyperinflation.
oly
>The old adage is to buy low and sell high. Unfortunately for most they buy
>high and sell low.
>Near exponential growth cannot be sustained.
There was a major correction "last time", and I'm expecting another one.
When? Who knows. I do believe that enough of "us common folk" have bitten
into the frenzy that it's about time for the Big Money Twiddlers to cash
out. The little guy always loses, at least most of them, on average. When
speculating.
$1/gal gas. Not probable, I might consider trading some of my cans of
chilli for some gas, tho ... I can't eat it, but it has a post-disaster
function. I can't eat gold, nor will my car run on it.
Since we've had several declarations that silver/gold won't retreat, I'm
going to go out on a limb and make a prediction/guess. That's all it is.
Two years from now, Christmas 2012, silver will be at about $20 (I wanted to
go lower, but I'm trying to hedge, if not by actually owning any). Gold
will fall back to $1000 before settling a tad higher ... we'll say $1250.
Even that sounds too high to me ... hedging you know.
Some sanity seems to have returned to the news recently, although the rest
of the world is still iffy. If things settle down more, we'll see all of
the panic-ers start to sell, but not until after the BMT's do (see above).
THEN, maybe, we'll get some more of the stock market back.
Just guessing. I'm not as old as some of the more vocal "owls" here, and I
don't have my finger on the pulse of the junk-box market as others do. I
can still guess. I'm now on record. Anyone else? Talk to you again in 2
years!
Nick
People who want to see their money go nowhere should overpay for
modern clad proof sets and they should most certainly bail out of the
PMs.
We should only be so lucky as to the promised lack of future
communications.
oly
"Owls"... "Fair Warning"... the palpable disdain for junk boxes...
All sounds very familiar to a former frequent poster and probable
lurker here at RCC.
oly
That's because some here think gold and silver have some kind of magic
quality.
JAM
I do not believe that paper money will maintain its value. Some part of
the rise in the value of gold is the result of the decline in value of
the U.S. paper/electronic dollar.
Cash money may become obsolete in our lifetimes.
JAM
Just like any other commodity.
Gold dropped below $300 because Russia was selling its gold reserve to get
dollars. That put a lot of gold on the market and, as a result, prices
dropped. I wouldn't expect that to happen again. But in the long term, I
wouldn't be surprised to see gold prices in the $500-600 range. The near
term is more problematic, however. Reports indicate that U. S . Companies
are holding $1.2 trillion (that's $1,200,000,000,000 for those who have
problems figuring our how many zeros that is) in cash waiting for a
resolution to the tax issue. When that money begins making its way back
into the economy, there could be inflationary pressures that drive the gold
price higher.
But, eventually, I think this gold bubble will burst just like all the other
bubbles have over the years. History has a tendency to repeat itself.
Unfortunately, we very rarely learn the lessons history teaches.
--
Richard
http://www.richlh.com
Sometimes God calms the storm. Sometimes He lets the storm rage and calms
the child
>
> http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au75-pres.gif
>
> JAM
As long as there continues to be millions of people with a Chicken Little
syndrome, I can't picture gold ever falling below $1,000 again. Especially
considering the increasingly volatile world situation and the vulnerable
countries we are committed to defend. The CL's played a significant part
in moving gold to where it stands now.
I'll grant you that fear of the world situation is a factor in the run up of PM
prices.
I feel the rampant inflation of the currency by the FED that also contributes to
the rise.
"Chicken Littles" suggests or implies some subtle resentment.
Did you never have any Gold or did you sell too early??? Are you
another rueful Gordon Brown???
Back in the late 1960's, did you ever look at a pile of $20 Libs at 70
greenbacks and say to yourself "That's idiotic, that's way too
much???".
Just sayin', gee... "Chicken Littles". That's harsh.
What if the sky does fall???
oly
oly
______________
I didn't mean any resentment by my comment although I can see how some might
interpret it that way. I have more than my share of "old" gold and silver
in my "portfolio" and have watched gold rise in price whenever our fears of
world crises develop. IMO, many of the people who are buying gold are doing
so not only as a hedge against inflation but as a hedge against our
involvement another serious world conflict. I just happen to believe that
conflict is much more likely than our currency totally going to pot. If or
when the sky does actually fall, gold won't be what people will be looking
for. Yet in the meantime, there will continue to be plenty of worried
buyers to keep the price moving up.
That's an interesting and different viewpoint. Most of the people
that I know who buy PMs or advocate buying them (and BTW I actually
don't know a lot of people who do buy them for any reason) do so
because they are 100% certain that all the "mathematics" of our large
public debt and compounding interest rates will force the Feds and the
FRB to over-issue additional currency and credits. This overissue is
what will swamp the value of the present currency.
The potential for War really doesn't much enter into their view of the
future - or mine for that matter.
If anything, I tend to think the U.S.A. really might have to abandon
large areas of our empire and our police beat. If the dollar were no
longer the world's reserve currency (that is to say, if the dollar
were no longer totally acceptable to purchase oil or to purchase
consumer junk from China), well then we might have to abandon large
swaths of the world which we presently police.
So your viewpoint is interesting and maybe I should think harder about
"War" and its potential to disrupt America financially. I do notice
unexplained shit like that "missile launch" from the sea near Catalina
Island a few weeks ago.
oly
_____________
It IS odd that while most individuals probably don't worry about "war" per
se from day to day, SOMEBODY worries enough to cause the price to jump most
times there's a major new threat somewhere that may involve us. Not the
only impetus by any means, and probably not the biggest, but something that
does help move the gold price upward. It seems like it's shit happening in
other countries that usually drives gold price fluctuations more that what's
happening in ours.
Personally, as a retiree, I buy PM's as an investment when I think I can
make money from it in the short term, not as a hedge against anything. I've
held onto the gold but have skimmed off the 50%+ profit in silver over the
past year, leaving the original investment amount in place to hopefully
appreciate again over the next year. Sure beats CD interest. Plus it's
paying to have my truck restored.
Myself, I accumulate silver all the time. In recent years, the Gold
to Silver price ratio has around 60 to 1. However, when the Gold to
Silver ratio dips decisively under 50 to 1, I trade silver for gold.
I typically don't take any cash out of these swaps.
This is not really as efficient as if I simply saved the paper money
for some time and then bought gold. But it satisfies my need to get a
coin "fix" on a frequent basis, coin junkie that I am.
oly
Amen to that brother!
If you want to predict the future study the past. It's all been done
before.
JAM
Then something must be disconnected in your head's wiring, because the
study of history suggests that our society will soon have a financial
and monetary stroke, because of too much socialism/ collectivism and
because of excessive redistribution from the very few remaining
productive people.
Yeah, there's nothing new under the sun, but history doesn't so much
"repeat" exactly so mauch as it "rhymes" with the some of the last
verses.
There are almost always financial bubbles in something, at least quite
a few in the last four hundred years of recorded western financial
history. More recently, America itself has relied for its prosperity
on financial "bubbles" in something on almost a continuous basis under
Greenspan and Bernanke (NASDAQ stocks, then Residential Real Estate,
and now it seems to me that they are trying [with not much success] to
take the action back to the Stock Market again).
Reading up on those things, gold doesn't show the signs of any kind of
wide-spread mania, and despite a really really really unusually sharp
rise in the last ninety days, silver lacks the large numbers of
speculators that you find in a late-stage financial mania. The recent
rise in commodities is more than just in gold or silver only.
When there are lines at the coin shops like those in late 1979 and
early 1980, that would indicate late-stage financial mania in PMs.
"Study History"??? Tell us about your library, JAM.
oly
Actually history points to exactly the opposite happening.
Of course, we have a Carnegie Library here in Springpatch. It is a
top-notch public resource for the latest in "romance-cum-bondage and
murder mystery" genre of recent fiction.
Happily, among hundred of books, I have about thirty superb history
and biography books in my personal Library that came off the shelves
of the local Carnegie Library. Some of these books were among the
treasures of the Library back when it was still worthy of the name. I
bought most of these treasured books for fifty cents or a dollar at
the Library's annual fundraising sales.
You want good books (or any books, for that matter) in English on the
German Weimar Inflation??? Ain't happening at the public library!!!
oly
asked to turn it into silver they Laughed
Silvadine was 60 dollars a cup
buy buy
Fire me.....
gold is for show think
I do like the mens socks (hosiery) that are made with silver-coated
cotton threads - I myself believe the manufacturer's claims that they
keep foot odors at bay.
I might consciously use a sterling spoon to stir my coffee, but I've
not yet tried ingesting any "collodial silver" solution.
oly
Hold on Bet my left hand 50$ soon
Fill up your treasure chests Silverado
Then the nations economy has risen from the dead
!2 trillion dollar country 15 trillion debt
High ho silver away bet the half price home
you live in.
or the 1 % intrest at banks
phat cats who rob the stock exchange
taxes needed to pay the retirement plans of your state teachers and
workers
Wish I knew NOTHING flip it heads 1959
Didn't I run into you at a poetry reading in a Providence expresso joint
back in 1960?