Precious Metals..Again/again
Jud
Peter
> Gold and silver both making some impressive gains today.
If you own a lot of gold, it probably seems good. I would be more
impressed if we make it about $1250/oz.
oly
From the worst level earlier today (6/7/20), $1250 per troy ounce of
gold would have been a 3% or less move upwards. That's really not
much.
Of course, in terms of the Euro, gold is hitting all-time record
prices. It would also be very close to an all-time high, if not at a
high, in British pounds.
oly
Peter
Sorry, my fat fingers! I meant above not about. Just under 1250
looks like a double top. It may or may not run through it, but my
guess is that you are more certain of the trend when you see a new
high.
Still, it has been strong and I see no reason to actually doubt it
will eventually make a new top.
oly
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I'm really not trying to cause a spat here, you seem to be sincere
enough, but I will shout out my strong prejudice against "technical
analysis" and "charting". "Double top" is a "technical analysis"
term and, skeptic that I am and ever will be, TA is simply the modern
day equivalent of alchemy.
TA should be illegal and those who vend "investment advice" based on
TA should be fined and perhaps do prison time after the first
conviction.
I would buy a slabbed, wildly overpriced, twentieth century ultra-high
grade "rare-in-this-condition" puny bronze Lincoln cent before I would
buy a subscription to a TA service.
Numismatics teaches us something about economics and man's historical
failure to control the tool of money, if we want to listen. Paper
money is simply a fraud and a sham. All currencies in the present
modern world are in a "competitive devaluation" race to the bottom.
When I was young, in the 1960s, a nice pre-1933 twenty dollar gold
coin went for $45. Now, probably a minimum of $1,400. I am
absolutely certain that if I am not carried off prematurely, we will
see a "rise" of that magnitude again during the remainder of my
lifetime.
Small daily gold price fluctuations are meaningless. Even a fall of
33% to 50% from the present USD gold price would simply be a buying
opportunity.
oly
Peter
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I don't necessarily disagree. Technical analysis proves nothing.
(There are some free sources and they are occasionally interesting.)
As for a double top, it does suggest that one of the possibilities is
that there might be a pause before a push onward. Gold has made a
significant move up from a low around 1044 in Feb. The original post
mentioned impressive gains. They can be seen that way. They can also
be seen in terms that a previous try at the next higher price failed.
This is not an argument that the market must obey my commands; merely
that this is a place to take note and consider whether the trend is
changing for a while. The market has my permission and surely will do
as it wishes.
In case it rises above 1250, I'll reconsider my position (with a view
toward selling covered calls on mining shares). In case it falls
below 680, I will ask myself if it is prudent to own more. In between
I'll probably just watch and make silly remarks.
oly
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I buy some gold occasionally and rather more silver nearly every day.
If you buy nice coins (as opposed to bullion), you have the added
benefit of owning an enjoyable historic item. Gold (and to a lesser
degree, silver) is the ONLY financial asset that is NOT simultaneously
someone else's financial liability. IMHO, this form of financial
asset would mean a lot in the deflationary scenario.
I have even found myself buying some silver crowns from the 1970s and
1980s that I looked down upon back at the time when they were issued.
I used to think that the Italcambio-produced Iran 200 rials with the
Shah and wife's double portrait was rather crappy and schlocky, but
recently I bought one for sh*ts and grins. I have recently bought
several things like that recently, so long as the price wasn't too
much over melt (two to four times melt is about my limit for any coin
in PMs and issued in my lifetime).
oly
oly
Peter
I tend to agree with your view. In the past, when silver was nearer
$6 or 7 I'd visit local coin shows in the NL and look over the junk
boxes. I found that i could purchase very nice crowns (5 BF, or 5 FF
coins), mostly in VF or better, for close to melt and occasionally
below. The silver guilders and marks from the same period (19th
century) were usually too pricy. Later on, I found I could sometimes
buy 20th century 72% Ag guilders at close to melt.
Lately, I am a little more picky, but I don't like to pay too much for
"numismatic value." Old Russian, French, Dutch or Spanish (Islamic)
coins are tempting, even so. When someone (in Madrid) showed me a
nearly perfect 4 Reales from Los Reyes Catolicos I realized I was
really out of my league trying to validate one -- it looked nicer than
any in Cayon's "Monedas Espanolas"!
I got a chance (mostly through the ONS) to purchase a few crown size
coins from India, Burma and Iran that are quite nice, but I really
don't have an idea how to value (they didn't cost too much over melt).
I have some gold coins, but those purchases were more carefully
considered and stored. In most cases the coin was either of
particular interest or was near perfect and not much above melt. I
have been tempted by, but never actually purchased a golden rider.
I began with a rule of thumb of aiming at 2% of liquid assets. I
started when gold was $250 and silver $6 and slowed down as prices
rose. At this point, 2% has been exceeded and I am much more
cautious. Being retired, I need to also maintain a degree of
liquidity.
oly
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FWIW, the cash just went through $1256 on an intra-day basis (6/18/10
at 7:30 AM CDT).
I wouldn't be surprised if the PTB try to stuff that, somehow.
oly
Peter
It looks very strong indeed. I don't see a specific reason for the
rise (well, perhaps the dollar is slightly weaker than last week). It
makes you wonder what it might do if something really bad happened.
Park Qtrs
Jud;651736 Wrote:
> Gold and silver both making some impressive gains today.Ya its getting expensive .
--
Park Qtrs