Expert warns of "dangerous bubble" in gold coin market
stonej
Mr. Jaggers
> http://www.prweb.com/releases/2009/goldcoins/prweb2124024.htm
So, let me get this straight. We have one contingent of experts who are
absolutely certain that gold will hit $2000 soon, and another expert who sez
that today's gold at $1400 is grossly overpriced, and that buyers at that
level will soon be left holding the bag.
No wonder our economy is such a mess.
James
oly
Differences of opinions are what make markets in the first place. If
all (100% of all persons) agreed that an item was a "buy", there would
be no sellers. I all agreed that an item was a "sell", there would be
no buyers.
At any rate, in the case of gold, most commentators put the cart
before the horse. Gold is the "numeraire", the yardstick - it is the
value of the paper currency(ies) that is (are) fluctuating, not the
gold.
Out the door to the bank...
oly
oly
The price of gold in USD is within one-half of one percent of USD
1,000 at 7;15 AM today.
Gold has been at a record price in terms of the Euro and British Pound
for about the last two weeks, MOL.
oly
Bruce Remick
"Mr. Jaggers" <lugburzman[at]yahoo[dot]com> wrote in message
news:gnm99...@enews2.newsguy.com...
We've already heard about several "experts" who managed over $100 million of
client funds. The term "expert" doesn't have the clout it once might have.
Too bad their forecasts aren't recorded and then played back periodically
for public scrutiny. Maybe we'd see far fewer articles and "special
reports" published.
Mr. Jaggers
As far as I can see, there have never been any experts, just people who yell
louder than everybody else.
James
Mike Marotta
> absolutely certain that gold will hit $2000 soon, and another expert who sez
> that today's gold at $1400 is grossly overpriced,
If you follow the links and read through all the hype, you will see
that the "Sovereign Society" is selling (guess what?) British
sovereigns. In fact, he has about 25,000 of them in stock right
now... at least that's what I figure after two reads through the
malarky.
His point is valid, of course.
If you want a good deal on gold, go to your ANA-member dealer and ask
about 19th century and 20th century European gold coins, such as the
UK Sovereign, the French 20F (angels and roosters), the Swiss 20F,
etc.
For many years, Columbia minted a 5-peso gold coin the same
specifications as a UK Sovereign. Not popular, such a coin sells for
less over bullion than a sovereign. It's listed in Krause's SCWC, so
it's a known entity -- to a numismatist, or a coin dealer...
Small Mexican gold is another option. The 50-Pesos Libertad had 1.20
ounces of gold. The 20P is about 1/4 ounce and the series goes 10, 5,
2.5, 2 -- down to 1/20 and 1/25 of an ounce. You pay more premium
for small coins, of course.
If you have $150 to save for a rainy day, you can buy 10 ounces of
silver or a single 5-peso Mexican gold coin.
If you have $1500 today, you can buy 6 sovereigns or 7 angels (give or
take) or you can bid online and pay 60% too much for an American Gold
Eagle.
(Or you can carry around about eight pounds of silver or a 3/4 ton of
copper.)
Mike M.
Michael E. Marotta
"Small is beautiful"
Bruce Remick
"Mr. Jaggers" <lugburzman[at]yahoo[dot]com> wrote in message
I CERTAINLY AGREE.
Mr. Jaggers
> On Feb 20, 7:56 am, "Mr. Jaggers" <lugburzman[at]yahoo[dot]com> wrote:
>> absolutely certain that gold will hit $2000 soon, and another expert
>> who sez that today's gold at $1400 is grossly overpriced,
>
> If you follow the links and read through all the hype, you will see
> that the "Sovereign Society" is selling (guess what?) British
> sovereigns. In fact, he has about 25,000 of them in stock right
> now... at least that's what I figure after two reads through the
> malarky.
>
> His point is valid, of course.
>
> If you want a good deal on gold, go to your ANA-member dealer and ask
> about 19th century and 20th century European gold coins, such as the
> UK Sovereign, the French 20F (angels and roosters), the Swiss 20F,
> etc.
Already followed your advice at a show last week. Picked up an Israeli gold
piece at melt, and an Australian sovereign at slightly over melt. But I did
it more for numismatic reasons than for investment/security reasons.
They're just pretty.
James
Peter
>
> - Show quoted text -
Gouden tienjes (ca. 1/5 Oz.) of gold commonly sell close to melt (even
some of the 19th century coins).
Differences in opinions may make markets, but they also make
volatility. Volatility makes options worth more.
Bruce Remick
"Mr. Jaggers" <lugburzman[at]yahoo[dot]com> wrote in message
news:gnmdp...@enews2.newsguy.com...
I think that's the one thing the "expert" hasn't factored in-- the
motivation of the people who are paying well over spot for the gold coins
they are buying. Not everyone who buys the various gold coins at relatively
high prices is buying purely for investment.
mazorj
"Mike Marotta" <mer...@torchlake.com> wrote in message
news:46e482c6-b700-4bef...@o2g2000prl.googlegroups.com...
> On Feb 20, 7:56 am, "Mr. Jaggers"
> <lugburzman[at]yahoo[dot]com> wrote:
>> absolutely certain that gold will hit $2000 soon, and
>> another expert who sez
>> that today's gold at $1400 is grossly overpriced,
>
> If you follow the links and read through all the hype, you
> will see
> that the "Sovereign Society" is selling (guess what?)
> British
> sovereigns. In fact, he has about 25,000 of them in stock
> right
> now... at least that's what I figure after two reads
> through the malarky.
>
> His point is valid, of course.
And totally irrelevant to what he's hawking. I didn't even
see the links to selling sovereigns. (Was there any way to
buy them there? At what price?) What I did see was a paid
news release on PR Newswire linking to a website with a
stupifyingly long sales pitch for his investment newsletter.
As noted, the signal to malarkey ratio was about 1:20. His
"gold" is subscribers willing to fork over up to $2,000 a
year for his putative pearls of wisdom.
All good advice if you're looking for commodity investment
gold and other PMs to hold and hopefully sell for a profit.
If you're converting your dollar assets to PMs because you
believe that the dollar will become "worthless" in an
impending worldwide economic collapse, then it may be a bit
difficult to convince your local blacksmith to accept "them
funny little furrin' coins" in exchange for repairing your
wood stove. He'll probably know all about gold Eagles,
Maple Leafs, Krugerrands, etc., and readily accept them.
> (Or you can carry around about eight pounds of silver or a
> 3/4 ton of copper.)
Hmmm... anyone for 1-pound copper rounds?
Bill Krummel
"oly" <oly...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:d96dcda5-1dae-40c3...@e22g2000vbe.googlegroups.com...
--------------------------------------------------------------------
I have many yardsticks; a loaf a bread, a dozen eggs, a new car, a pair of
shoes, eating out for the evening, the cost of a doctor's visit, a gallon of
gas, and on and on. All my yardsticks fluctuate modestly (with exeptions in
relatively small frames of time) to the paper dollar but tend to fluctuate
much more dramatically to gold, excepting the measurement taken over the
span of two lifetimes, perhaps.
If I made a phone call to the local supermarket and asked the price on their
largest box of Cheerios, I would get an answer. The answer would be termed
in;
a. paper dollars and fractions thereof
b. Mercury dimes (would they know?)
c. fractions of an ounce of gold.(very, very small fractions) [would they
know?]
I make this post because I am having trouble grasping the importance of an
ounce of gold in a financial collapse. When an individual, corporation, or
nation takes a loan, they are not borrowing against existing wealth but
wealth that is generated from future productivity. I am not having
difficulty understanding the need to print paper money that (1) represents
that future productivity and (2) provides a form of exchange.
But I do need to say that when I contemplate eternity (not the no end part,
just the no beginning part), infinity, and economics, my head begins to
spin.
Bill
Mike Marotta
> All good advice if you're looking for commodity investment
> gold and other PMs to hold and hopefully sell for a profit.
I give up. What is a PM?
Mike M
Jeff R.
Steadfastly refusing the temptation to be vulgar, I'd guess "Precious
Metal".
--
Jeff R.
(context is everything)
oly
> "oly" <oly2...@aol.com> wrote in message
Honestly, the ounce of gold may be more valuable in taking a portion
of your wealth through a time of troubles. During the height of the
French Revolution, nobody would have dared use one in the little
commerce that was taking place.
Here is an article that I liked a lot:
http://www.fairfieldweekly.com/article.cfm?aid=11757
America has had two hyperinflations since 1776. Why would any
economically sane person not at least admit the possibility of that
happening again?
oly
oly
>
> - Show quoted text -
Let me restate slightly, for clarity:
Honestly, the ounce of gold may be more valuable in taking a portion
of your wealth through a time of troubles into the near future and
possibly into the far future. During the height of the French
Revolution, nobody would have dared use a gold coin in the little
commerce that was taking place. But by the year 1800, gold was
perfectly useful anywhere in France, at any time - assuming that you
(or your children or grandchildren) had survived the interim period.
But at the height of the Terror, the open use of gold or silver in
commerce would have been dangerous.
oly
oly
And let me add: About ten years ago, a very young man found a hoard of
400 Louis d'or and Double Louis d'or - these gold coins just off a
commonly used path in a town somewhat south east of Paris. For two
centuries, there had been rumors that an elderly French admiral, an
aristocrat, had died in a local Prison during the Revolution. The
long-told rumors were that his fortune had never been found, and that
his daughter (who survived) reportedly had no idea of the coins
whereabouts. There were no papers or identification found with the
coins (a sound precaution considering what was happening in France in
the mid-1790s). The coins were eventually auctioned for the young
man's benefit (and yes, I do own a copy of the auction catalog - Lord
knows where in this pile).
But the point of my story is this: If somebody, someday, finds a ton
of 100 French franc coins from the 1950s or a ton of ten franc coins
from the 1970s, will anybody even care??? For they cannot be redeemed
by the State and their intrinsic value as scrap is minimal.
oly
Mr. Jaggers
Because we have not had one since the Federal Reserve took over. I might
suggest two reasons for this:
1) The gummint may be now capable of successfully manipulating the economy
to prevent hyperinflation. This is what many say and everyone hopes, but on
this premise, the jury remains out.
2) We have not seen war play out on our soil since the last hyperinflation,
nor has there been any use of nuclear devices anywhere in the world since
1945. Let a few of those get lobbed into somebody else's Great Cities, no
matter whose, or by whom, and all bets are off. The jury remains out on
this premise as well.
So, yes, the possibility always lurks. But taking a portion of my wealth
through a time of troubles is one thing, while eating during that time of
troubles is another. If our paper assets indeed become worthless (all one
word), what will replace them? Certainly not one-ounce gold rounds.
Cobwebs continue to accumulate on my computer screen as I languish, waiting
for someone, anyone, or you, oly, to enumerate practical anticipatory steps
to take and to prepare for this problem, or to explain how holding PM in any
form will help me provision my larder during that time of troubles. I'm
beginning to suspect that nobody has an answer, that we'll all just be
screwed, and that will be that. Perhaps population commentators Scrooge and
Malthus were right.
James
Mr. Jaggers
The more I think about it, the more it becomes obvious that the title of Ron
Paul's latest book is so eminently appropriate.
James
Mr. Jaggers
A lot of good all that gold did for the esteemed Amiral.
Jacques d'or
oly
>
> - Show quoted text -
Well, mon vieux, I'm still thinking about what I want to say.
Me, myself - I cannot do exactly what I would personally like to do,
because my parents are still living and I have a grade-school age
child.
Nor would there be much wisdom in announcing one's exact plans over
the internet, especially if the denoument is not far out in the
future.
I would more gladly elaborate on Friday at CICF.
But, in general, I myself look to the Weimar experience. I have
recently bought three more books about the inflation during that era.
I just wish that they had more anecdotal evidence as I prefer that
over theories expressed in advanced math.
1920s era Germans who had silver coins reportedly had little trouble
in obtaining any supplies or services of any nature.
But those people were lucky that overall society remained orderly, and
that riots were very sporadic. Today's U.S.A. is no doubt more
volatile than Weimar Germany.
1920s era Germans who owned foreign currencies (i.e., the dollar, the
pound, the Dutch guilder), and Germans who had income from foreign
sources lived exceedingly well. Author Thomas Mann was one of these
(he had some unfortunate losses on a "friend's" mortgage that he held
as a favor, but OTOH he was lucky to get dollars and pounds from
publishers outside Germany). Mann wrote essays on his experience.
In our era, all currencies are fiat, not commodity based, and
preserving one's wealth in the form of foreign currencies may be much
less effective (i.e., all foreign exchange may only prove to be a race
to the bottom...).
From my own travels in Brazil and Argentina (fifteen years back), I
was told over and over and over that businessmen who maintained their
fortunes in physical inventories related to their business speciality
did well. The greatest businesses in those countries, after grain and
meat production, were "Auto Parts" ("Pecas") and Tires. Pecas pecas
pecas!!!
Coin collectors have a modest or moderate hedge in their collections.
IMHO, a nice high quality denarius of the divine Marcus, or an aureus
or Nero will always find a market (unless, of course, the United
Nations outlaws ancient coin collecting).
My very few Brazilian contacts suggest that quantities of non-
perishable small items like light bulbs, disposable razors, standard
sized nails, and the always recommended toilet paper and tampons will
be good to build up over time. Should the "chicken littles" prove
wrong, you or somebody in your family can simply use them later.
And yes, I do see society as a big "flea market" if the economy
worsens from here, or if oil becomes scarce, or if we have inflation.
One must prepare for that, mentally. IMHO, nothing wrong with flea
markets, nothing at all. Some people see flea markets as trashy
beyond belief.
Finally, during the German inflation, there were many stories of
barter exchanges that were disproportionate, but at least one of the
parties were simply starving. Grand pianos swapped for a bushel
basket of potatoes - things like that. Perhaps large gold coins will
only purchase small food supplies. Or perhaps one should get powerful
metal snippers for dividing coins into halves, quarters and eighths.
I will write some more later... the weekly big pot of soup is being
prepared this A.M.
oly
mazorj
"Jeff R." <conta...@this.ng> wrote in message
news:499ffd1d$0$20975$afc3...@news.optusnet.com.au...
You're a better man than I am, Gunga Din. I'd have gone straight for
the jape.
oly
>
> - Show quoted text -
Yes, he would have done better to have fled to the United Kingdom, or
to America. If I recollect, he was about 90 when imprisoned.
Did you know that Louis-Phillipe I came to America with his two
younger brothers? They were guest of George Washington for a time,
just after Washington retired from the Presidency.
oly
Mr. Jaggers
You mean you'd abandon your friends to save your own arse? 8>)
> I would more gladly elaborate on Friday at CICF.
I can't wait that long. This thing is imminent.
> But, in general, I myself look to the Weimar experience. I have
> recently bought three more books about the inflation during that era.
> I just wish that they had more anecdotal evidence as I prefer that
> over theories expressed in advanced math.
>
> 1920s era Germans who had silver coins reportedly had little trouble
> in obtaining any supplies or services of any nature.
>
> But those people were lucky that overall society remained orderly, and
> that riots were very sporadic. Today's U.S.A. is no doubt more
> volatile than Weimar Germany.
As I have observed elsewhere, a situation vastly exacerbated by evangelists,
mouthy politicians, and radio talkers.
> 1920s era Germans who owned foreign currencies (i.e., the dollar, the
> pound, the Dutch guilder), and Germans who had income from foreign
> sources lived exceedingly well. Author Thomas Mann was one of these
> (he had some unfortunate losses on a "friend's" mortgage that he held
> as a favor, but OTOH he was lucky to get dollars and pounds from
> publishers outside Germany). Mann wrote essays on his experience.
>
> In our era, all currencies are fiat, not commodity based, and
> preserving one's wealth in the form of foreign currencies may be much
> less effective (i.e., all foreign exchange may only prove to be a race
> to the bottom...).
Makes sense to me.
> From my own travels in Brazil and Argentina (fifteen years back), I
> was told over and over and over that businessmen who maintained their
> fortunes in physical inventories related to their business speciality
> did well. The greatest businesses in those countries, after grain and
> meat production, were "Auto Parts" ("Pecas") and Tires. Pecas pecas
> pecas!!!
You mean it wasn't "plastics"?
> Coin collectors have a modest or moderate hedge in their collections.
> IMHO, a nice high quality denarius of the divine Marcus, or an aureus
> or Nero will always find a market (unless, of course, the United
> Nations outlaws ancient coin collecting).
Hear ye, hear ye, my SVDB for a loaf of bread!
> My very few Brazilian contacts suggest that quantities of non-
> perishable small items like light bulbs, disposable razors, standard
> sized nails, and the always recommended toilet paper and tampons will
> be good to build up over time. Should the "chicken littles" prove
> wrong, you or somebody in your family can simply use them later.
Now that I think about it, I could probably survive quite a while off my
circumferential enhancement.
> And yes, I do see society as a big "flea market" if the economy
> worsens from here, or if oil becomes scarce, or if we have inflation.
> One must prepare for that, mentally. IMHO, nothing wrong with flea
> markets, nothing at all. Some people see flea markets as trashy
> beyond belief.
In some ways society is already a flea market. Consider the thrift stores,
Goodwill Industries, and Aldi. We'd just see more of that, and the
weekly/monthly events may well become more frequent. Yes, the North Lugburz
Perpetual, Traveling Marché aux Puces.
> Finally, during the German inflation, there were many stories of
> barter exchanges that were disproportionate, but at least one of the
> parties were simply starving. Grand pianos swapped for a bushel
> basket of potatoes - things like that. Perhaps large gold coins will
> only purchase small food supplies. Or perhaps one should get powerful
> metal snippers for dividing coins into halves, quarters and eighths.
Now you're starting to get into the scenario that I have been asking about.
Do elaborate.
James
oly
While I don't want to abandon my friends, I always remember the first
two phrases that they teach you when get drafted into the French army:
(1) "Sauve qui peut!!!"
(2) "Nous sommes trahis!!!"
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
"And No, Mr. Robinson, thank you but I don't think I'll be going into
plastics. Where's Mrs. Robinson???"
####################################
My considerable circumference will also see me through a few bad days
and nights, if and when.
The doctors have been all over me about losing weight following the
three heart stents back in November '08. While the Illinois Pork
Producers have sent me several concerned messages, I am cutting down
on fats.
No heart attack, no problems with pumping action or valves. I simply
had some 70%+ blockages and needed to do something about them. My
chest and the area behind my left shoulder feel much much better.
****************************************************
My wife and her family won't eat leftovers, won't stop shopping at the
full price retail mall, still eat lots of meals at the chain
restaurants, and no hand me down clothes. The source of their
personal wealth has declined in market value by 50% since January 1,
2008. They are examples of the many many people who are going to go
through the ringer, psychologically.
=================================
Let me see if I can find some historical anecdotes about
disproptionate barter during the Weimar period.
oly
oly
> On Feb 21, 9:41 am, "Mr. Jaggers" <lugburzman[at]yahoo[dot]com> wrote:
>
>
>
> > - Show quoted text -
>
> While I don't want to abandon my friends, I always remember the first
> two phrases that they teach you when get drafted into the French army:
>
> (1) "Sauve qui peut!!!"
>
> (2) "Nous sommes trahis!!!"
>
> ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
>
> "And No, Mr. Robinson, thank you but I don't think I'll be going into
> plastics. Where's Mrs. Robinson???"
>
> ####################################
>
> > disproptionate barter during the Weimar period.
> Let me see if I can find some historical anecdotes about
>
> oly- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -
On this issue of whether or not the "black swan" event is imminent -
Would you want to bet with or against this man?
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE51K0A920090221
I would not.
oly
Mr. Jaggers
You left out, "Eh bien, on baisse le pantalon?"
> ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
>
> "And No, Mr. Robinson, thank you but I don't think I'll be going into
> plastics. Where's Mrs. Robinson???"
>
> ####################################
>
> My considerable circumference will also see me through a few bad days
> and nights, if and when.
>
> The doctors have been all over me about losing weight following the
> three heart stents back in November '08. While the Illinois Pork
> Producers have sent me several concerned messages, I am cutting down
> on fats.
>
> No heart attack, no problems with pumping action or valves. I simply
> had some 70%+ blockages and needed to do something about them. My
> chest and the area behind my left shoulder feel much much better.
I was unaware of all that. Glad you're on the mend and feeling better.
> ****************************************************
>
> My wife and her family won't eat leftovers, won't stop shopping at the
> full price retail mall, still eat lots of meals at the chain
> restaurants, and no hand me down clothes. The source of their
> personal wealth has declined in market value by 50% since January 1,
> 2008. They are examples of the many many people who are going to go
> through the ringer, psychologically.
>
> =================================
>
> Let me see if I can find some historical anecdotes about
> disproptionate barter during the Weimar period.
The exchange of the grand piano for the bag of potatoes is sufficient.
My wife is currently making weekly visits to our German neighbor, who was
born during the Weimar period, to record her life story. Not only did they
not have a grand piano to exchange, but they had nothing else either.
Except the rhetoric of the Führer, of course.
James
oly
I would not bet against him. George Soros makes Warren Buffet look
like a guy running a poker game with a 25 cent limit. Not that Mr.
Buffet isn't a great investor too.
oly
Mr. Jaggers
The headline is poorly worded. Obviously, there is an ultimate bottom.
Soros has not said that we will reach that ultimate bottom, as the headline
implies.
I wonder what he will do when all his assets are reduced to zero value.
James
oly
>
> read more »- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -
... and Anne Bancroft was a damn formidable (en ce sens d' epatant et
incroyable) specimen of a woman. oly
mazorj
...
======================================
As a sometime participant in these threads, I have a few rambling
observations here.
First, let me first acknowledge that after much prompting, oly has to
some extent fleshed out the rationales for his views. As before, his
replies have been a tad frustrating - long on historical events
(especially Weimar) and personal anectdotes, short on the technicals -
but at least I'm convinced that he isn't just a reactionary old grump
shooting from the hip just for the hell of it and making it up as he
goes. I only mention that because for a while I had my doubts, as did
(do) others.
That doesn't mean that I agree with his most pessimistic predictions.
Like most of the participants here, I see even more troubled times to
come, but not the complete collapse of a "worthless" dollar. To cite
a frequently noted conclusion in the news, the dollar and our economy
are too big to be allowed to fail.
We'd all like oly to give his exact prescriptions for what we ought to
be doing under his doomsday scenario. That's a fair question that he
has resisted. However, he apparently has not taken his extremist
views to their ultimate rational conclusions: Dump every asset
enumerated in dollars, buy as much PM as possible, hoard as many
essential supplies as you have room for, and the ultimate act of a
loss of faith in the dollar: max out every last iota of your credit
lines to purchase (with dollars) assets of durable value and make only
minimum payments, because in a year or two those dollar-denominated
debts will be "worthless". So I can only conclude that like most of
us, oly is more than a bit conflicted on the implications of his
views. That's not a criticism, just an observation about human
nature. Nevertheless, I'd like to hear something a little less
ambiguous than his recent replies. oly, you're being disingenuous
here. Surely you can be more specific without harming your own
position.
Finally - and I'm straining as hard as possible here not to come
across as condescending - I'm glad that oly finally has buckled down
to some attempts at serious, civil discourse rather than flipping off
critics as cretins nipping at the heels of a self-proclaimed expert.
We may not have degrees in economics, but as I noted in an earlier
post, the Dismal Science mostly is based on knowledge about human
behavior. Unless you happen to be a hulu alien, that means that any
reasonably well-educated observer has a legitmate seat at this table,
even if it's all the way down at the far end.
oly
>
> - Show quoted text -
Many tangible assets cannot/ do not go to zero. Some do, but others
don't. In the case of tangible assets, it often depends on whether or
not the specific asset is in the hands of those who can profitably
manipulate it (getting a valuable tangible asset into the hands of
more competent people is what bankruptcy and depression is supposed to
do, and what government tends to try to prevent nowadays).
As for financial assets, all paper-based intangible "asset" claims can
go pretty bad.
Mr. Soros is a very old man, I think. That can free you up to be
honest. Or perhaps he IS feeding disinformation, hoping to make money
a la Nathan Rothschild.
oly
Mr. Jaggers
To the very end of her life, many would say.
James
mazorj
...
> My wife and her family won't eat leftovers, won't stop shopping at
> the
full price retail mall, still eat lots of meals at the chain
restaurants, and no hand me down clothes. The source of their
personal wealth has declined in market value by 50% since January 1,
2008. They are examples of the many many people who are going to go
through the ringer, psychologically.
Sure. But unless you already have more money than you and your
children can spend in a lifetime, that behavior is fairly foolish
regardless of economic conditions.
< Let me see if I can find some historical anecdotes about
disproptionate barter during the Weimar period.
Aargh! Please, no more Weimar! You've beaten that one into the
ground. We get it. How about some other, more relevant analogies?
oly
> "oly" <oly2...@aol.com> wrote in message
Weimar is very very relevant to our present situation. Many Americans
have considerable German blood and heritage. While my surname is
Swedish, my descent would be 50% or more German.
Germany had just lost a war of attrition. America is losing two wars
of attrition and we may be drug into a third hot war by one of our
allies at any moment.
Germany was highly orderly with a long tradition of strong civil
obedience to a central government. Ditto for America.
But as Mr. Soros said, the more recent Soviet collapse is relevant.
Go read Dmitry Orlov's writings. I think they are thoughtful stuff.
He's been making his views known for over a decade. His views are
consistent. He's all over the internet.
oly
RWF
>Weimar is very very relevant to our present situation. Many Americans
>have considerable German blood and heritage. While my surname is
>Swedish, my descent would be 50% or more German.
Ethnic heritage is not relevant.
Our current economic situation is not comparable to the Weimar republic.
>Germany had just lost a war of attrition. America is losing two wars
>of attrition and we may be drug into a third hot war by one of our
>allies at any moment.
We aren't losing anything.
Iraq will be a dim memory 5 years from now.
If BO has a brain in his head he will cut our losses in Afghanistan and
get out ASAP. Even the Russkies realized they couldn't win there.
>Germany was highly orderly with a long tradition of strong civil
>obedience to a central government. Ditto for America.
Germany had just had a war fought in its territory and the post-war
society was not anywhere near to being "highly orderly".
Oly you need to calm down. The sky isn't falling. Our republic will
weather the storm.
OTOH PM speculation looks like a winner in the short (2-3 year) term.
If you believe the economy is going down the tubes, buy silver & gold.
If, OTOH, you believe the economy will rebound, buy platinum and
palladium.
oly
> "oly" <oly2...@aol.com> wrote in message
Of course ethnic heritage is relevant. Hell, I'll bet Barrack Obama
is at least 25% German.
I'm not getting hysterical, this just happens to be where the Saturday
morning chat is at.
I was gonna make a post on the other thread where you've been active
this AM, RF; but figured I wouldn't get into whatever the hey that one
was all about.
oly
Mr. Jaggers
His views might be summed up in the first article on this page:
http://lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/IndividualItemPages/PostOilBulletinIssueNumberTwo.html
James
oly
>
> - Show quoted text -
BTW, RF, PC was right on the other thread about your "political
relativity" - when the Bushies were still in power, you would have
called Iraq a "quagmire".
Not that I'm going to start agreeing with PC on a regular basis.
oly
oly
wrote:
>
> James- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -
Elsewhere on this same site (LATOC), maybe in the archives, there is a
very very recent speech by Mr. Orlov. Within the last two weeks. It
serves up his most current views. He almost feels a need to step away
a bit from his comparison of the USA to the old USSR because he feels
the crisis is soon and he doesn't want to get blamed by the people who
didn't see it coming.
oly
oly
>
> - Show quoted text -
The Orlov speech link:
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Archives2009/OrlovBestPractices.html
oly
PC
<<<
Not that I'm going to start agreeing with PC on a regular basis.
>>>
Phew! You had me scared for a second! :-)
Frank
> If you follow the links and read through all the hype, you will see
> that the "Sovereign Society" is selling (guess what?) British
> sovereigns. In fact, he has about 25,000 of them in stock right
> now... at least that's what I figure after two reads through the
> malarky.
Has nothing to do with selling gold sovereigns.
Check this link http://www.investmentu.com/resources/commoditytrendalert.html
mazorj
"Mr. Jaggers" <lugburzman[at]yahoo[dot]com> wrote in message
news:gnpea...@enews4.newsguy.com...
All understood. What part of "we get it" eluded you? Too much of
"One-Note Oly" is going to seriously decrease your audience.
>> But as Mr. Soros said, the more recent Soviet collapse is relevant.
>> Go read Dmitry Orlov's writings. I think they are thoughtful
>> stuff.
>> He's been making his views known for over a decade. His views are
>> consistent. He's all over the internet.
>
> His views might be summed up in the first article on this page:
>
> http://lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/IndividualItemPages/PostOilBulletinIssueNumberTwo.html
As comedians say, "If you buy the premise, you buy the bit." Well
written and sound logic - once you accept the premise of a total
collapse.
However, his premises and precipitating factors *as outlined there*
lie
more in the dwindling availability of resources versus growing human
population, than in any brewing economic/fiscal storms. WRT to
resources and population growth, I agree completely with the
inevitability of future cataclysms "if this goes on". Any high-order
civilization is only a few days' food supply away from panic and
riots; but food is not the only (or even the underlying) Achilles
heel. Our entire economic house of cards is built on the no-longer
sustainable framework of cheap, abundant energy. Science fiction
abounds with plausible dystopias based on a given "if this goes on"
premise.
So I see nothing there to support oly's predictions, other than in the
area some of the after-the-fact effects and consequences.
RWF
>BTW, RF, PC was right on the other thread about your "political
>relativity" - when the Bushies were still in power, you would have
>called Iraq a "quagmire".
I have PC on my killfile, so I don't have to read his cyber-sewage.
I was no fan of Dubya. In fact I think he was the worst president during
my lifetime.
Regardless of who is or was in office, I was never in favor of the Iraq
war.
RWF
"Frank" <fr...@frankcoins.com> wrote in message
news:5604d3ca-3f8c-466c...@40g2000prx.googlegroups.com...
>Has nothing to do with selling gold sovereigns.
Fwankie is nym shifting to hide from people's kill-files!
He should have his internet access yanked!!!
This is the worst crime in the history of humanity!!!!
mazorj
"RWF" <R...@200902.invalid> wrote in message
news:gnpta1$s99$1...@news.motzarella.org...
>
> "Frank" <fr...@frankcoins.com> wrote in message
> news:5604d3ca-3f8c-466c...@40g2000prx.googlegroups.com...
>>Has nothing to do with selling gold sovereigns.
>
> Fwankie is nym shifting to hide from people's kill-files!
My Irony-O-Meter just pegged to the max.
oly
Now that's hysteria!!!!!! I am not worthy to hold a candle for you,
RF. If you need people to co-sign your petition to get Frankie
yanked, you know I will add my signature.
oly
PC
"RWF" <R...@200902.invalid> wrote in message
> "oly" <oly...@aol.com> wrote in message
> news:ffba2c25-1c1f-44c5...@k19g2000prh.googlegroups.com...
>>BTW, RF, PC was right on the other thread about your "political
>>relativity" - when the Bushies were still in power, you would have called
>>Iraq a "quagmire".
>
> I have PC on my killfile, so I don't have to read his cyber-sewage.
This guy really cracks me up. He is like a little Rod Blagojevich.
oly
For the week ending 2/20/2009:
Stolen from a reliable source...
"The major US indices suffered their worst weekly losses this year (to
record six losing weeks out of seven): Dow Jones Industrial Index
-6.2% (YTD -16.1%), S&P 500 Index -6.9% (YTD -14.7%), Nasdaq Composite
Index -6.1% (YTD -8.6%) and Russell 2000 Index -8.3% (YTD -17.7%)."
"Negative sentiment dragged the S&P 500 to seven points below its
October 2002 low, whereas the Dow stopped only 80 points short of this
key level. It is noteworthy that it took five years for the latter to
increase from 7,286 to 14,165, but only 16 months to wipe out the
entire 2002-2007 advance."
As JAM and others suggest, PLEASE DON'T take steps to protect
youself. All is well.
oly
Gary
>
> news:5604d3ca-3f8c-466c...@40g2000prx.googlegroups.com...
>
> >Has nothing to do with selling gold sovereigns.
>
> He should have his internet access yanked!!!
> This is the worst crime in the history of humanity!!!!
Whats with the Fwankie business? Haven't you been sued yet? Frank's
history shows the same email
address since 2002.