Why SNIPING is My Method of Choice
Nick Knight
When I'm serious about an item, I always set up a snipe, whether automated
or manual (with me sitting at the keyboard). Sometimes, when I'm not all
that thrilled about an item, but still interested, I'll experiment. I'll
bid a little earlier and see what happens. In almost every case, the
result reinforces my firm belief that sniping is the smart technique for a
serious bidder.
Most successful eBay'ers know that sniping works. Yet, there are folks
who will try to tell you that bidding your max amount the minute you see
an item you want is just as good as sniping. That, somehow, the results
will be the same as if you sniped. It's so easy to see that this is
almost NEVER the case. You can see this simply by looking at the bidding
history of an item and see all of the successive failed bids, repeated
until a success. These are the Dollar Dickerers of eBay.
Last night a somewhat rarer variety of bust half was closing. Hard to
grade it ... from the massively failing die (cool cracks!), but it was of
interest to me. While "rarer", it didn't command too large of a premium,
so I figured I'd throw ~$60 at it and see. But instead of setting up a
snipe, I decided to throw this bid out 3 hours early. And I was
immediately high bidder at ~$46 with little time to go. But note what
happens:
http://cgi6.ebay.com/aw-cgi/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&item=1289845248
It took the eventual winning bidder 9 tries to top me. All his bids were
placed in the last 2-3 minutes of the auction, but this was plenty of time
to try and top me, $1 at a pop.
If I would have followed my normal routine and scheduled a snipe, I have
no doubt I would have won this piece for ~$47-48. Instead, I lost out.
Sure, I might have posted a higher max bid if I really wanted this piece
badly enough ... and I might have held into it. But I would have ended up
paying much more than with a properly placed snipe. I bid my max. And I
was denied. Bidding that same max in the form of a snipe would have won
it for me, I'm sure.
Nick
Eric Tillery
This is an excellent observation Nick. I too feel the same way. If you ever see
me bid early in an auction, I have either 1) decided I am not really that interested
in it but will put up a bid for the hell of it, and if I get outbid, oh well! 2) put a very
lowball initial bid in (usually to get rid of the buy it now option if I feel the item will
go for less than the BIN price) and then place a snipe bid for my max. Works good
for me!
--
Refuse to do business with any seller
who offers ACG "certified" coins
Ian Milne
Ian.
George V. Huse, Jr.
set to US, World, UK, & Canada. I click on the Ending Today & cruise
through looking for anything I have a fair interest in with no or low
bids. I can usually pick up something good at a relatuvely cheap price.
Ian Milne wrote:
--
Buzz Huse http://flashpages.prodigy.net/buzzhuse/
Euless, Texas, USA
"These opinions/comments are entirely my own and no one else's."
George V. Huse, Jr.
Do not let your stinginess get the better of you. I had won an MS 1923P
US Peace Dollar for US$9.99 + US$1.00 S/H. No insurance. I just
received the coin & opened the package. Empty. The other end of the
padded mailer, someone had slit, right on the edge so you wouldn't
notice, & stole it. My bad. :(
Eric Tillery
>Another way to pick up odd & ends is "cruising". I have my favorites
>set to US, World, UK, & Canada. I click on the Ending Today & cruise
>through looking for anything I have a fair interest in with no or low
>bids. I can usually pick up something good at a relatuvely cheap price.
I really caution people that bid this way. When you land on an auction that
is about to close, you do not have enough time to thoroughly check out the
seller. These auctions all usually last for seven days, some for 3,5 or 10.
IMO the way to find stuff you want to bid on is by checking out the new
auctions, then either placing them on your watch list, or putting a low ball bid
in. Then you have the time over the course of the auction to check out the
seller, and decide what you max bid will be. I have seen way too many people
burnt by bidding at the last minute following the going going gone list.
him again
handsomely rewarded.I was looking for coins to put away for the baby
when I ran across a "2001 $10.00 proof Gold Eagle"
The seller didn't say it was PCGS graded as pr69 dcam in the
header.There was no reserve.S/H was $12.00.I bid $ 110.00 and got it for
$102.00 Plus S/H $116.00.I paid as soon as the auction was over and to
his credit the seller upheld his end of the auction.
Clint Cummins
who want to "win" a chance to reveal your max bid.
Part of the problem is the mechanics of the way the max bid
is implemented at eBay. In the example you gave
http://cgi6.ebay.com/aw-cgi/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&item=1289845248
the bid of $61.02 "revealed" your max of $61.59.
The max is supposed to stay secret in a perfect auction, but
it was revealed because of the way eBay implements the max with
leapfrogging bid increments.
This could be corrected if the max bid was implemented as
"The high bidder wins at the *second highest* bid".
(This is how the economics literature describes an auction
which can correctly "reveal preference", by removing the
disincentive to bid your true max). So every
time a competitor enters a bid below your max, you are high
bidder at his inferior bid amount, instead of one bid increment
above it. E.g. he bids $61.02, and you are high bidder at $61.02
because you "got there first". He never knows your actual max
until he exceeds it.
This solves the shill problem as well, because people can't
reveal your max and then stop. Competitors would always face
the full risk of becoming high bidder when they make a bid.
Currently they have a good chance of revealing your max
and then having a choice to stop.
Here are some reasons the max will probably not be implemented this way.
- the underbidder might feel bad, because they didn't get "out bid";
you just "got there first". But, this just provides the proper
incentive for everyone to bid their true max (early).
- the seller (and eBay's percentage) misses out by the amount of
the increment. However, this might be outweighed if more people felt
willing to bid their true max.
- it reduces the incentive for bidders to be involved realtime at the
end of an auction, and to bid higher due to the "heat of the moment".
It does not solve the problem of a competitor who is uncertain
about how much he wants to pay, and/or desires to "win" at a price
possibly influenced by the heat of the moment. They will bid
enough to beat you, if your max is in their uncertain range.
(this is good for sellers and eBay's percentage, though).
Clint Cummins
Alan & Erin Williams
You show some thought in this Clint, but I doubt that not jumping up to the
next increment will obviate the habit of the 'dollar-a-push' bidder. I
learned that sniping is the best way not only to get a bargain, but not to
be outbid on an item. I bid a few years ago on many obscure Pfaltzgraff
items, leading with my max. Not only did I often get outbid by a
dollar-a-push, those bidders often backed away from the buy, leading to
e-mail from the seller ten days later asking if I was 'still interested' in
the item.
I think the only way to get someone to put their 'true max' the first time
is to conduct a blind auction with no indication of the leading bidders,
and then 'open the envelopes' at auction's end.
Alan
Ian Milne
The package was delivered at the same time as another from a different auction. The postman handed both over and got my signatures. Of course the weight of the two packs...I hadn't noticed until it was too late and the postman had disappeared on his rounds.........one pack (the best one!) had a slit in it and my `wins' turned into `woes'.
I learned a lesson that `insurance' does not cover me for my own stupidity. I should have been more observant. if I had been, I would have refused the package.
Having said all that, what I have saved in recent years by not bothering with insurance has funded coins I would not have otherwise been able to afford. Works both ways.
Ian
note.boy
bargain at Ł16. Billy
http://cgi6.ebay.com/aw-cgi/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&item=1287263403
Harv Laser
"Nick Knight" <ni...@secant.com> wrote in message
news:3be6bdf4$1$avpx$mr2...@news.supernews.com...
> Hi,
>
> When I'm serious about an item, I always set up a snipe, whether automated
> or manual (with me sitting at the keyboard). Sometimes, when I'm not all
> that thrilled about an item, but still interested, I'll experiment. I'll
> bid a little earlier and see what happens. In almost every case, the
> result reinforces my firm belief that sniping is the smart technique for a
> serious bidder.
I'd have to agree totally with this.. when I bid early, I am almost ALWAYS
outbid later, and then if I decide I really want it, I end up paying more
for it than if I had just set up a snipe (I use Vrane.com) ahead of time.
But in many instances, my budget for something is flexible, depending on how
badly I want it, and/or how often it comes up for bids. Some items show up
a LOT less frequently than others.
You want to know how long it took me to find one of these absolutely stone
MINT in box, never assembled?
http://www.amigazone.com/images/weather2.jpg
I'll tell you.. nearly two years. You won't see one of these in any
condition even once a month on eBay and when you do, it is usually missing
more than half the parts. So I was patient, I craved it, I kept searching
and watching, and refused to buy one in beat up condition, and finally
scored mine about a year ago. It sits in its box in my closet and once in a
while I'll whip it out and take a look at it and smile and remember what
life was like when I was 10 and had one of these in my bedroom, and then
I'll put it back in the closet to fondle another day..
Early bidding usually just begats more bidding and I've seen too many
auctions where someone comes in at the last minute and keeps bidding one
more bidding increment after another until he tops out my high proxy bid..
The temptation is to bid fast and early on something, and it's an easy
temptation to fall into. The best strategy is just to put something on your
watch list (and unfortunately, eBay's watchlist only holds a maximum of 20
items.. so if that fills up, you can bookmark it instead, but then you have
to keep remembering to check your bookmarks).. and then see how it goes
after a few days and snipe it if it hasn't gone past your budget.
Then again, in some of those "I just gotta have that" situations, you can
blow your budget right out the window anyway, when you bid with your
emotions instead of your brains.. I've done it both ways, plenty of times,
had some good scores, and had other items get bid so far out of my reach
that I had NO idea there would be that many people who would pay that kind
of money for something. All I could do is sit and sigh as I see an item
that I was willing to pop $100.00 for go for ten times that.. Who are these
people? Where do they get that kind of disposable income?
In most of these cases I'm talking about non-coin auctions.. my coin buying
has tapered off a bit in the past month or two as I work on some of my other
collections of -=[stuff]=- such as toys and magazines and comics I had as a
kid.. or stuff I wanted as a kid but couldn't afford and couldn't convince
my parents to buy for me.. and unfortunately that' 50s stuff can get really
expensive really fast as there are a lot of baby boomers like me out there,
trying to buy back their childhoods :/ ..
I mean.. take a look at this:
http://cgi.ebay.com/aw-cgi/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=1656497067
My brother and I both had one of these when I was about 11 and he was about
six.. that thing sold brand new inna box for under $15.00 in 1960. And they
almost ALWAYS sell for this much and even more on eBay.. We played with
ours, had battles with them, and they ended up with broken controllers, and
getting thrown out in the trash.
That's just one real wacky example.. I don't need it, I really don't have
any good place to display it, but it's just one of those old things I had as
a kid that I have real fond memories of, that I thought would be fun to get
back again.. And where do you find a price guide for this kind of thing?
Sure there are toy price guides out there, but I can't buy every damn price
guide in the world for all the stuff I like to hunt around for.. I think
between comics, coins, magazines, toys, vinyl, Disney stuff, I've probably
spent close to $200 just on price guides in the past couple years..
As far as established prices go, though, coins are *usually* pretty easy to
pin down..
As long as they're in a "respected" slab, or an original Mint product, or
put up by a seller whose grading on raw coins you have implicit trust and
faith in, you've got a grade, you've got at least three or four very solid
price guides so you don't go wacko and pay $200.00 for a $50.00 coin, and
very few coins are unique to the point that if you miss one, you'll never
see another one in your lifetime.. but then you've got other factors such
as people paying insane premiums for "rainbow toning" which the price guides
don't even mention or factor into a slab's market price..
Look at Mr. Anaconda's auctions for example.. (And Adrian, I am not casting
any disdain at all on your coins or your auctions.. I have a supreme amount
of respect for your knowledge, and experience, and writing talents, and a
serious number of buckets full of drool from looking at your auctions..)..
Like this one:
http://cgi.ebay.com/aw-cgi/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=1293775946
An 1879-S Morgan in a PCGS MS-65 slab..
PCGS Price Guide says $85.00. Is the toning on it worth a $2700.00 premium?
I dunno.. you tell me.. is there someone out there willing to throw that
kind of money at a coin with a layer of toning on it a few molecules thick?
Well not yet, because this is at least the second time he's listed it in the
past month..
Anyway, I'm rambling as usual..
But yes, sniping is how I have scored some of my best scores for the best
prices, but it's a tricky strategy and it takes a lot of time, and a lot of
auction-sniffing, and a LOT of self-restraint to go with your brain and not
with your gut..
Harv
Bill Krummel
Alan & Erin Williams <will...@mindspring.com> wrote in message
news:3BE6FE36...@mindspring.com...
Alan, that sounds like the perfect description of a shill operation. While
it is true that bidders will push a dollar at a time to find the high, when
they back out after the auction end, it is a pretty good sign they never
had intent to buy, just push the legitimate bidder to his max. Bill
Alan & Erin Williams
> Alan & Erin Williams <will...@mindspring.com> wrote in message
> (snip)
>
> >"Not only did I often get outbid by a
> > dollar-a-push, those bidders often backed away from the buy, leading to
> > e-mail from the seller ten days later asking if I was 'still interested'
> in
> > the item."
>
> Alan, that sounds like the perfect description of a shill operation. While
> it is true that bidders will push a dollar at a time to find the high, when
> they back out after the auction end, it is a pretty good sign they never
> had intent to buy, just push the legitimate bidder to his max. Bill
You're right, Bill it does sound like the same strategy, but trust me, these
were legit and unique E-Bay identities. I came to recognize their
preferences..this lady always bids on corn holders but drops a $7 a piece, that
one would kill to have the Folk Art glass decanter but can;t actually pay $150,
but she gets over her head anyway... ;-)
It was like wading through a bargain basement sale with blue-haired ladies
swinging weighted purses to get that large turkey platter with no chips or
crazing.. ;-)
Gladly, I'm done with *that* and have every Pfaltzgraff Folk Art piece
(discontinued) ever made in my china cupboard, including the hot chocolate
cups. That's them, over there next to the Frankling Mint pewter spoons.
Marriage does have its benefits for coin collectors, you see. After what I
paid to get the talking 'Mrs Beasley' with original glasses, the price I pay
for that Trade Dollar will go down like melted butter, domestically. ;-)
Alan
Steven Preston
>(And Adrian, I am not casting any disdain at all
>on your coins or your auctions.. I have a
>supreme amount of respect for your knowledge,
>and experience, and writing talents, and a
>serious number of buckets full of drool from
>looking at your auctions..)..
>Like this one:
http://cgi.ebay.com/aw-cgi/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=1293775946
>An 1879-S Morgan in a PCGS MS-65 slab..
>PCGS Price Guide says $85.00. Is the toning
>on it worth a $2700.00 premium?
>I dunno.. you tell me.. is there someone out
>there willing to throw that kind of money at a
>coin with a layer of toning on it a few molecules
>thick?
That is (IMO of course) a gorgeous coin- which I would pay not more than
$200 for. It's been my experience (and I do look for toned Morgans) that
while coins that nice are uncommon, there are several that will be
darned attractive for sale at less than stratospheric prices. The key is
to look for toned coins in the cases of dealers who don't specialize in
or care about toned coins. Two Baltimores ago (Nov. '99 for those hooked
on the Gregorian calendar), I bought a beautiful rainbow toned 1879-O
Morgan in MS-64 (raw) for $35 from a dealer who specialized in world
paper money. He didn't remember where he got it, but he was more than
happy to get rid of it.
I too admire Adrian and perhaps this post is motivated solely by the
overwhelming disappointment I feel at knowing I will never own anything
he sells, but I think his prices are just a leeetle optimistic. But then
I could be a jealous son of a gun :)
-Steve
Ted Lissauer
are as scarce as hen's teeth, and they may only be available every year or
so (books, not coins), I snipe a bid way above any reasonable price. This
way I don't run the bid price up during the early bidding and wind up paying
one bid increment above what the second most avid bidder is willing to pay.
I figure this means that I will pay somewhere around "market value" for the
item.
The only way this plan could go wrong is for two people to snipe high. This
could be costly. Hasn't happened yet, though.
Ted
"Nick Knight" <ni...@secant.com> wrote in message
news:3be6bdf4$1$avpx$mr2...@news.supernews.com...
Harv Laser
"Ted Lissauer" <t...@ntr.net> wrote in message
news:tuguap3...@corp.supernews.com...
> When I want to bid on an item that I really, really, really want, and they
> are as scarce as hen's teeth, and they may only be available every year or
> so (books, not coins), I snipe a bid way above any reasonable price.
This
> way I don't run the bid price up during the early bidding and wind up
paying
> one bid increment above what the second most avid bidder is willing to
pay.
> I figure this means that I will pay somewhere around "market value" for
the
> item.
Ooh.. another book guy.. what kind of books do you like to collect? My
passion is for big fancy art monographs.. lately I've been buying a lot of
books on Duchamp and Claes Oldenburg..
Harv
Ted Lissauer
I collect small-press copies of a little known Mark Twain book usually
called "1601, Or A Fireside Conversation in Queen Elizabeth's court." It is
a filthy and funny and long supressed classic. Thanks to eBay, I now have
almost 100 different editions, the earliest being 1916. That's why I snipe
high when a desirable (i.e. one I don't already have) comes along. I don't
know how to put a value on such an item. There may only be one in
existence, no one knows. I'm willing to let the forces of the auction
determine how much I have to pay for a copy. I'll pay just a little more
than the second guy.
My interest in this book is the reason I am collecting coins. As the books
become harder to find, I was thinking of something to keep me off the
street. It occurred to me that Elizabethan coins from year 1601 might be
fun to collect, and that's how I got to this point.
Both of these interests have taken me to interesting places I wouldn't have
seen before. This NG, and all the humor and education it provides, for
example.
Ted
"Harv Laser" <hla...@socal.rr.com> wrote in message
news:n6%F7.64618$R9.17...@typhoon.we.rr.com...
George V. Huse, Jr.
Ted Lissauer wrote:
Mike
Why is sniping advantageous over regular proxy bidding?
1. You have time to put the item on your watch page. You spend the
week researching the item, both on ebay and off. You work out the true
value of the item for you, you research your seller, his selling
history, his postitive comments and his negs. Look at the nature of
the negs. Look at the percentage of positive to negative.
2. Your maximum proxy won't get nibbled to nothing by lowballer,
halfballer and nibble bids.
3. If you're a collector, your competition won't search your bidding
history and follow you from auction to auction, using you to find
their goodies for them.
4. An enemy competitor can no longer compete with you
5. If you inadvertantly have stumbled on a shiller seller, There is
nothing to shill because you haven't bid yet.6. You have all the time
you need to email the seller about anything that concerns you BEFORE
you bid.
7. Your win rate will increase dramatically. Most don't bid on ebay
for "sport", we bid to get stuff we want, need or collect.
What disadvantages does sniping have over regular proxy bidding?
1. A good true max proxy that is higher than your snipe will win out
anyday, no matter when it was placed...day 1 or day 7.
2. Occasional ebay outages may occur when you least expect it, ruining
your snipe
3. Sniping allows no time for the other bidder to react and bid again,
BUT it also allows no time for the sniper to react either, hense the
importance of bidding your absolute MAX.
Remember to be a successful sniper you must:
Bid ONCE
Bid you absolute MAX
Bid LATE (as late as you dare)
Ted Lissauer
denied that he wrote it. None of this stopped the underground press from
gleefully printing edition after edition.
Ted
"George V. Huse, Jr." <buzz...@flash.net> wrote in message
news:3BE8C25D...@flash.net...
J. Stone
general
over the years from my job cataloging books. I see lots of art books cross my
desk and love to look at them. Impressionism, art deco etc. its a fascinating
field.
Clint Cummins
>What eBay has to say about sniping:
>Why is sniping advantageous over regular proxy bidding?
>1. You have time to put the item on your watch page. You spend the
>week researching the item, both on ebay and off. You work out the true
>value of the item for you, you research your seller, his selling
>history, his postitive comments and his negs. Look at the nature of
>the negs. Look at the percentage of positive to negative.
>2. Your maximum proxy won't get nibbled to nothing by lowballer,
>halfballer and nibble bids.
I agree with all of Mike's points, but I doubt this is
"What eBay has to say". Searching under Help in Ebay yields:
------------
Sniping
"Sniping" is the practice of waiting until the last few minutes or
seconds of an eBay auction and then placing a bid hoping to outbid
the current high bidder. Most bidders, who are used to the more
traditional auctions where the gavel only falls when there are no
more bids, feel annoyed and frustrated by this type of bidding.
We encourage all members to use the proxy bidding system that is in
place to bid the absolute maximum they are willing to pay for an item
right from the start and let the proxy bidding system work for them.
This way, although it may be disheartening if they are outbid,
they won't be paying more than they were willing to.
-----------
URL (may wrap):
http://webhelp.ebay.com/cgi-bin/eHNC/showdoc-ebay.tcl?docid=212826&queryid=sniping
It seems clear that eBay does not like sniping - it results in
lower revenues and reduces the "fun factor" of a live auction, where
bidders react to each other. It also gives advantages to people
who can stay up late to snipe live, or who know about sniping
software like at www.vrane.com .
If eBay liked sniping, they could simply implement a "Sealed Max Bid"
feature. The bids would be opened at the time of the auction's closing,
and if the highest sealed bid was greater than the closing price,
it would win. (ties could be settled by the time the bid was placed).
One fundamental problem in auctions (or economics in general) is that
economics doesn't tell us where the optimal price lies. It is
somewhere between the "rock bottom" of the seller and the "max bid"
of the top buyer. In economics terms, either the "consumer's surplus"
or the "producer's surplus" can be maximized.
Clint Cummins
Clint Cummins
>... I doubt that not jumping up to the
>next increment will obviate the habit of the 'dollar-a-push' bidder.
bids to move the same amount.
>I learned that sniping is the best way not only to get a bargain,
>but not to be outbid on an item.
Yes, of course - "no time for the competitor to react".
>I bid a few years ago on many
>obscure Pfaltzgraff items, leading with my max. Not only did I often
>get outbid by a dollar-a-push, those bidders often backed away from
>the buy, leading to e-mail from the seller ten days later asking if
>I was 'still interested' in the item.
This is a slightly different issue. The item should be relisted
in this case.
>I think the only way to get someone to put their 'true max' the
>first time is to conduct a blind auction with no indication of the
>leading bidders, and then 'open the envelopes' at auction's end.
Good point - this would be an improvement on sniping (for
bidders). Unfortunately, like sniping, it may reduce seller/eBay
revenues and reduces the "fun" of a live auction, where people
react to each other's bids. So it would probably not be implemented.
Clint
Harv Laser
"Clint Cummins" <cl...@Stanford.EDU> wrote in message
news:9sc548$qq8$1...@usenet.Stanford.EDU...
> We encourage all members to use the proxy bidding system that is in
> place to bid the absolute maximum they are willing to pay for an item
> right from the start and let the proxy bidding system work for them.
> This way, although it may be disheartening if they are outbid,
> they won't be paying more than they were willing to.
eBay encourages high early proxy bidding because they know bids attract more
bids, and the more bids, the higher the final selling price, and the more
commissions they'll make.
There is *nothing* eBay does that is not directly influenced by their desire
to rake in as much in fees as possible, as it is their only source of
income. (Unless they are selling a whole lot more t-shirts in their store
than I ever imagined)..
Harv
Fred A. Murphy
On 5-Nov-2001, Alan & Erin Williams <will...@mindspring.com> wrote:
> Not only did I often get outbid by a
> dollar-a-push, those bidders often backed away from the buy, leading to
> e-mail from the seller ten days later asking if I was 'still interested'
> in the item.
An almost certain sign of shill activity, which should be reported.
--
I'll give up my guns when it takes longer for a burglar to shoot
than it does for a cop to get here from a donut shop.