Never trust a Norwegian
Anton Berlin
Much of what makes the Garmin-Cervelo roster so impressive is the fact
that it contains so many potential winners, highlighted of course by
World Champion, Thor Hushovd, Heinrich Haussler, and Tyler Farrar,
Sunday's Paris-Roubaix, however, will see a different look for the
team of Jonathan Vaughters.
"The team is racing one hundred percent for me on Sunday," says Thor
Hushovd to VG Nett. "We are agreed on that."
The original three-headed monster at the top of the team will now
consist of just one, and he'll be in the rainbow jersey as he tears
northward from Compiegne through the barren Nord Pas de Calais
countryside on Sunday.
According to the multi-time Norwegian national champion, the decision
to base the Hell of the North completely around his performance was a
simple one - it's his race and no one else on the team has the form or
credentials to argue the fact.
"A few things have determined that. We have seen, for example, that
Heinrich is not in the shape we hoped he would be in. At the same
time, Roubaix is a different race than Sanremo and Flanders. In
Roubaix, I've shown I can win. No one else has shown that. In that
case, the choice is easy."
Up until this point in the spring, the Garmin-Cervelo Classics
campaign has faltered at every turn. They haven't raced terribly by
any means, but the results, that which a team lives and dies by,
haven't been forthcoming. All that could change on Sunday though. A
win in the Roubaix velodrome would be huge for not only the team, but
Thor Hushovd as well, who has said that it is his biggest goal.
With so much riding on Paris-Roubaix - it would seem that placing all
the hopes on the broad shoulders of Hushovd would be a recipe for a
whole lot of pressure, but the Norwegian shrugs off the pressure and
points to not Sunday, but Monday, when he'll address that idea.
"It is only on Monday when I'll talk about things like that. If I get
the result on Sunday, then my spring season is a success."
If the 33 year old from Grimstad takes the victory this weekend, it
won't just be a successful spring season for him, but his whole team
as well. It will take a perfect team effort and a perfect Thor Hushovd
when the race heads into its decisive phases as it approaches Roubaix
in a little over twenty four hours.
Ryan Cousineau
> http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/8055/Thor-Hushovd-The-team-is-racing-one-hundred-percent-for-me-on-Sunday.aspx
>
> Much of what makes the Garmin-Cervelo roster so impressive is the fact
> that it contains so many potential winners, highlighted of course by
> World Champion, Thor Hushovd, Heinrich Haussler, and Tyler Farrar,
> Sunday's Paris-Roubaix, however, will see a different look for the
> team of Jonathan Vaughters.
>
> "The team is racing one hundred percent for me on Sunday," says Thor
> Hushovd to VG Nett. "We are agreed on that."
I don't think he was being deceptive, except to the extent that proper team tactics routinely involve putting a low-percentage rider out front where he presents just enough danger to force other teams to work.
In this case, the strategy nearly paid off for Hushovd: as far as I can tell from the race write-ups, van Summeren didn't initiate the move at sector 5, he just followed Bak and two others. He surely worked in that group of four, but decisively what he did was put himself in a crucial break at the very moment when his teammate Thor was drafting Cancellara to the front. At that point, there was very little JvS could do to directly help Thor, but he could force Cancellara to work even harder to catch the break, which was perfect for a theoretical finish in which Cancellara and Thor made it to the end together, and JvS' presence in the break meant Thor had zero need to work with the TTist.
Even after all those team tactics, Cancellara was still strong enough to come within 20s of JvS, and Thor rolled in not far behind. It looks to me like the plan was for Thor to draft Fabian to the finish, on the very good chance that Cancellara would overtake van Summeren, and the only part that didn't go according to plan was that van Summeren rode out of his mind.
Fred
> Even after all those team tactics, Cancellara was still strong enough to come within 20s of >JvS, and Thor rolled in not far behind. It looks to me like the plan was for Thor to draft >Fabian to the finish, on the very good chance that Cancellara would overtake van >Summeren, and the only part that didn't go according to plan was that van Summeren rode >out of his mind.
Yeah, I mean, who would expect that a guy w/ a previous 10th and 5th
place result would finish so strongly?
Fred
RicodJour
And van Summeren was crushed when he didn't deliver last year. The
pieces were all in place.
Where's that dumbass Chung? He should be working up a chart showing
results versus height and weight.
R
Mike Jacoubowsky
news:10d45406-09a3-492f...@d11g2000yqo.googlegroups.com...
Where's the deception?
Thor was their designated heavy hitter and played the cards he had. It was
smart but not smart enough to depend upon Cancellara; Thor should have
factored in the effects of Cancellara being such a heavily-marked man and
realized that the field wasn't going to let him go when he needed to. Thor
could not have chased down Van Summeren even if he had wanted to, and
couldn't even stay on Cancellara's wheel during those last 2 or 3 ks.
Did Van Summeren realize the advantage he had, with Thor and Cancellara
together?
--Mike Jacoubowsky
Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReaction.com
Redwood City & Los Altos, CA USA
Scott
wrote:
> "Anton Berlin" <truth_88...@yahoo.com> wrote in message
>
> news:10d45406-09a3-492f...@d11g2000yqo.googlegroups.com...
>
>
>
>
>
> >http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/8055/Thor-Hushovd-The-team-is-racin...
>
> Where's the deception?
>
> Thor was their designated heavy hitter and played the cards he had. It was
> smart but not smart enough to depend upon Cancellara; Thor should have
> factored in the effects of Cancellara being such a heavily-marked man and
> realized that the field wasn't going to let him go when he needed to. Thor
> could not have chased down Van Summeren even if he had wanted to, and
> couldn't even stay on Cancellara's wheel during those last 2 or 3 ks.
>
> Did Van Summeren realize the advantage he had, with Thor and Cancellara
> together?
>
> --Mike Jacoubowsky
> Chain Reaction Bicycleswww.ChainReaction.com
> Redwood City & Los Altos, CA USA
It doesn't matter if he realized his advantage, as long as his DS on
the other end of the radio realized it.
Ryan Cousineau
Good points all. It's also useful to think of a race (or any sporting event) as a set of probabilities. It's not that given a similar situation with 20 km to go, van Summeren wins every time: I think it's more like he had a small percentage chance of winning, and Thor and Cancellara had fairly large percentage chances of winning.
> Did Van Summeren realize the advantage he had, with Thor and Cancellara
> together?
Well, yes. But I would interpret that as knowing that he had both a role and an opportunity: the weak riders around him, a head start on the most likely competiton, and (from his team's perspective) a drafting Thor ready to seal the deal if he faltered.
It's a system of bluffs: JvS is a strong enough rider that he can't be given much of a head start. Thor is his teammate, so Thor need not work, ever. Cancellara is surely the strongest rider, but must now figure out, with utterly imperfect information, whether there is a moment in which he can go hard enough to drop Thor (and other challengers) and strong enough to catch van Summeren (and this disregards the other riders in his break, between him and JvS, etc.)
And, of course, it was a whole raceful of tactics that got Leopard and Garmin-Cervelo to that point, where the strongest rider was isolated, and the strongest sprinter didn't need to work.
Bike racing has a strong element of chance and iterative tactics (ie Cancellara is a marked man because he's a proven champion; JvS is regarded lightly because he's obviously supporting Thor), and Roubaix more than most races. Boonen and Hincapie were hindered by misfortune, and not having strong men like them around probably helped JvS.
What I'm saying is this: the result of the race was not entirely created by the strength and tactics. Bike racing has a large element of chaos, and the best a good team can do is create and exploit opportunities. Analogies to poker are cliche but illuminating.
RicodJour
>
> What I'm saying is this: the result of the race was not entirely created by the strength and tactics. Bike racing has a
> large element of chaos, and the best a good team can do is create and exploit opportunities.
And of course that won't stop a DS from claiming afterwards that he
controlled the race because he's a Burnsided, hipster-douche that
throws people under the bus while wearing stupid glasses.
R
Michael Press
<dec23395-911a-4ea0...@o26g2000vby.googlegroups.com>,
RicodJour <rico...@worldemail.com> wrote:
A DS should never claim credit. Laud his riders for
working hard, and chalk up the rest to fortunate
circumstances. Must think about future races against
the same opponents.
--
Michael Press
Kurgan Gringioni
"Ryan Cousineau" <rcou...@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:abb0a415-4986-41c7...@glegroupsg2000goo.googlegroups.com...
:: What I'm saying is this: the result of the race was not
:: entirely created by the strength and tactics.
:: Bike racing has a large element of chaos
Dumbass -
That is true in Paris-Roubaix. Not so much for some other traces.
thanks,
Kurgan. presented by Gringioni.
Ryan Cousineau
> "Ryan Cousineau" <rcou...@gmail.com> wrote in message
> news:abb0a415-4986-41c7...@glegroupsg2000goo.googlegroups.com...
>
>
> :: What I'm saying is this: the result of the race was not
> :: entirely created by the strength and tactics.
> :: Bike racing has a large element of chaos
>
>
>
> Dumbass -
>
> That is true in Paris-Roubaix. Not so much for some other traces.
Dear Henry,
Joseba Beloki and Alex Zulle would like to know about these bike races without an element of chaos.
(OK, sure, TTs, match sprints, maybe even flat stages of le Tour, but those are either not really races or they're merely parts of races).