Maybe Liz Hatch isn't the only one to have a 6-way in July?
Even assuming that unlikely scenario (and further assuming this is a
serious question), almost certainly not.
Unlike a normal one day road race with an open field, there are only a
handful of contenders and no one contender and/or team can really
spring any surprises. There are only a few riders that need to be
watched. The rest is all just show. No contender is going to be
allowed to get away in break. Time is the only issue that anyone
needs to be concerned about. "Winning," or one contender placing
ahead of another is irrelevant if they finish as a group and get the
same time.
DR
A scenario where the Schlecks trail by a few seconds after the IT - I
could see a pretty effective train forming behind Cancelara, O'Grady
and Voight in an attempt to put them 1-2. Tradition or practicality
be damned.
That's a bit different. That's a situation where an attack is
effective, 39 seconds worth.
What I was saying is that, ethical considerations or no,trying to do
anything to gain time on the final day would be largely futile.
DR
Probably, if the terrain is flat. And you're not at the end of a
particularly punishing Grand Tour, including a rolling do-or-die TT
immediately following three days in the Alps.
I mean, who knows what the planners had in mind?
Let's be a little more open to exciting possibilities-- including
Cantadore rising from his metaphorical deathbed.
Add into the mix the fact that they found a way to ding Cavendish real
good again; HTC does have some motors and WTH, they might be for hire.
--D-y
Amusing point. This is going to get real interesting
The final stage of the 1975 Tour was the first finish on the Champs
Elysees and held entirely on the course as a criterium. Eddy Merckx
attacked Thevenet the whole time. But who is he anyway?
-ilan
Ever heard of Alexandre Vinokourov? It hasn't been that long since he
attacked on the last day to move up a spot.
Well, Greg Lemond didn't roll over and die for Fignon, either.
BTW, I'm looking forward to seeing the "memorial" for Mr. Fignon. I
saw him race at '86 Worlds in Colorado, and take a big chance on a
greasy corner where others were crashing in order to catch Mottet and
Argentin. Pretty ballsy for a guy with wet-and-dirty glasses-- and a
ponytail. RIP.
--D-y
Speaking of which, Rumsas also attacked on the last day.
-ilan
I loved Vino's attack on that final stage.
But he moved up to a very distant 5th via time bonuses at intermediate
sprints and went for the stage win. None of the podium positions was
in play with his attacks and minimal gap on the field.
Without time bonuses this year, GC guys separated by 20-30 seconds
would have to put on one heck of a show (or pray for a big crash
outside the safety zone) to get any separation, especially with the
points jersey competition so close.
So we're going to have a train for the Schleck boys, a train they they
are able to hang on to but Cadel is not? No, about the only thing that
might work under such a scenario is for good-guy Jens (who nobody
would ever question) to drop back at the 3.1 k to go mark, stick a
pump in Cadel's wheel and then have the team charge hard to the line
and try to gain the time it takes for Cadel to get a bike change.
Yeah, that's the ticket!
DR
Even if Cavendish is docked further point on stage 19 him and Rojas will be
within a few points of each other and the HTC Train à Grande Vitesse is
exclusively gonna be working to launch Cavendish down the Champs I'd have
thought. I can't see Stapleton ordering anything which might complicate the
issue. Besides that I don't see that there is much chance of the peleton
splintering so that different times are awarded, it's a pan flat stage down wide
roads and they are all gonna be travelling pretty much maxed out as HTC make
damn sure of that on the final stage. The yellow jersey will be decided on
Saturday almost certainly and only a big crash on Sunday will change anything.
--
That's right, I should have read your post before I posted pretty much the same
thing up a bit. :)
--
I think you are correct.
--D-y
Actually, Lemond attacked on the final 1991 stage and arrived first on
the Champs.
-ilan
1) Cav and about 90 other riders got a mercy from the race jury,
because they finished hors delai in one or both of the last two
stages. I love the guy, but I recognize Cadel Evans as the virtual
leader of the Points competition.
2) The reason flat stages are not contested by the GCers in the Tour
is because the chances of making time up are poor. They can best show
their strength elsewhere. There is a tradition of not having a "TV
escape" on the last day until the Champs (in practice it's a big
depart fictif until then, except the intermediate sprint). But that's
because in recent years the time to be made up was almost certainly
not available. The closest was 2007:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Tour_de_France,_Stage_11_to_Stage_20#Stage_20
Contador led Evans by 23", with Discovery teammate Leipheimer at 31".
No attack occurred.
3) If there are mere seconds separating the top steps on the podium, I
will be surprised if an attack isn't attempted. The question,
tactically, is whether the teams and riders in play could achieve
anything, but keep in mind that the race, at that point, will have
some of the character of a one-day race, not a stage race.
What do I mean? The GC rider in second will not care much about
conserving time and sitting in, so he can treat the event as win-or-
die. But sending a teammate up the road on an attack won't help,
because the GC rider himself has to gain the time. Also, a sprint
finish won't do: the GC rider has to gap his opponent by seconds.
So what would work? I think that if there were less than 10 seconds to
make up to win, you'd expect to see the attacking team hanging around
at the front, praying for a crosswind. Then they'd pick their spot and
try to jump as a team when the yellow jersey was about 20 wheels back.
Regardless, at that point it's on: all the attackers are trying to do
is, against all hope, snap the pack into "us" and "yellow jersey." If
they do that, then it's two TTTs of the damned, and riders getting
shed out everywhere.
Neither Leopard-Trek nor BMC have lost any riders yet. Schleck has
Cancellara working for him, but the two teams finished in the same
second on the TTT.
Conclusion
It depends on the time gap. But if my GC rider was leading the race by
8 seconds, I wouldn't let him spend a lot of time drinking champagne
from the team car. I'll guess that most DSes, rightly or wrongly,
wouldn't challenge a time gap greater than 20".
The problem with that scenario is that there is no surprise involved.
A vigilant leader and team is not going provide the stage for such a
one-and-only-one possibility. The MJ (and his team) ain't never
gonna' be 20 wheels back.
DR