ISRAEL STILL PUSHING FOR WAR ON IRAN
NOMOREWARFORISRAEL
http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2007/875/re5.htm
A crisis meeting indicates that Israel faces a strategic emergency
following a US intelligence report that sees no threat in Iran, writes
Saleh Al-Naami
The mobile phone of Dr Shlomo Segev, private physician of Israeli
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, rang at around 6pm last Wednesday. It was
Olmert's private secretary, asking Segev to postpone the appointment
scheduled in Olmert's home, and in the presence of his wife, to
schedule an operation to remove the cancerous prostate tumour Olmert
suffers from. This appointment was cancelled due to an important
security development -- at that time Olmert was heading an emergency
meeting of the heads of the security and intelligence agencies and
representatives of the Israeli atomic energy agency, as well as
propaganda experts and the ministers of foreign affairs and defence.
On the agenda were the claims of an American intelligence report
stating that Iran had, since 2003, halted development of its nuclear
arms programme. Those attending the meeting agreed that the report was
a resounding blow for Israel, and some described it as a "major
intelligence and diplomatic failure".
During this meeting, Olmert's tone was sharp and decisive. He directed
the heads of intelligence agencies and representatives of the nuclear
energy agency to "employ all of Israel's abilities and intelligence
capacity to show that the American report interpreted intelligence
information incorrectly". Israeli journalist Ben Kasbit, who has close
ties with the intelligence agencies, says that the head of Mossad,
Meir Dagan, promised Olmert during the meeting that his agency would
aim to prove to the world that in addition to the nuclear arms
programme discontinued in 2003 and the nuclear programme for peaceful
purposes that Iran is still developing, a third, secret programme
exists that Iran has successfully hidden until now. Dagan promised
that his agency would cooperate with others in an attempt to prove
that the Iranians are trying through this secret programme to acquire
military nuclear abilities without the outside world knowing.
As for propaganda, it was decided during this meeting that a
relentless campaign would be waged against the American report, but
not by official Israeli agencies. It was agreed during the meeting
that on official military and political levels in Israel it is
prohibited to appear as though Israel wants to push the American
administration towards military confrontation with Iran at any price.
It was thus decided that this campaign would be undertaken by Israeli
propaganda experts in cooperation with retired generals, atomic energy
experts, and retired heads of intelligence agencies, and in
coordination with the heads of Jewish groups in the United States and
all American parties that have criticised the report.
Although the basis of the propaganda campaign against the report has
not been announced, a week since its commencement one can see the
mechanisms used to meet its goals, and they appear contradictory and
weak. Participants in the Israeli propaganda campaign have doubts
about the professionalism of the report, claiming that the Americans
have interpreted intelligence information incorrectly and
incompletely. They also doubt the motivations of the 16 top officials
in American intelligence agencies who crafted the report, many of the
campaigners claiming that they issued the report based on the lessons
of the war on Iraq, when the American administration justified its war
on information offered by American intelligence claiming that Saddam
Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction while this information
was later proven wrong. Those running the Israeli campaign claim that
the authors of the report wanted to prevent President Bush from waging
war against Iran through publicly undermining the reasons for going to
war.
Yet the Israeli propagandists contradict themselves in also claiming
that the report was issued with the encouragement of Bush himself,
seeking justification to not wage war against Iran since it is clearly
impossible for him to do so following the report's issue. So as to add
a personal character to the intelligence report, Olmert's government
has allowed the leaking of a report issued by researchers in the
Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs that claims that Bush has decided
not to wage war against Iran due to his present weakness. The Israeli
media had previously embellished the issue with appropriate quotes
taken from a number of top Israeli officials praising Bush's
determination to put an end to Tehran's nuclear programme.
Yet these Israeli propaganda efforts have not succeeded in convincing
most of the Israeli media. All of the intelligence affairs
commentators in Israeli newspapers, such as Ronin Bregman, Yossi
Melman, Amir Oren and others, stress that the American report relied
on exactly the same intelligence information available to Israel, and
that the Israeli intelligence agencies do not possess any information
American intelligence agencies don't have. These commentators also
stress that top officials in Israeli intelligence agencies know well
that they can't refute the professionalism of American intelligence
agencies.
Israel has been extremely embarrassed on political and security levels
by the American report because it shows Israel -- and particularly its
intelligence agencies -- as a party seeking to involve Washington in a
confrontation with Tehran without justification. Yet Israel has not
only lost diplomatically, and in terms of media coverage. The report
has also been a blow to the Israeli strategy of raising the slogan
that "a nuclear Iran is a threat to world peace and security."
While Israel's bet on the Bush administration thwarting Iran's nuclear
programme through military action has failed since the report's
appearance, Tel Aviv realises that even the next American president
won't be able to resort to a military option in confronting Iran after
this report. At the same time, Tel Aviv also realises that its ability
to convince the world's nations to impose strict economic sanctions on
Tehran has weakened, despite the promise of Bush and Secretary of
State Condoleezza Rice to continue efforts to place further pressure
on Tehran. Tel Aviv knows that many of the world's countries that have
economic and commercial relations with Tehran have breathed a sigh of
relief following the report, because it allows them to resist
Washington's attempts to recruit them into an alliance against Iran.
Yet Israel's predicament following the publication of the American
report does not stop here. According to decision- makers in Tel Aviv,
Iran constitutes a strategic threat to Israel even without nuclear
arms. According to General Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, Israeli minister of
infrastructure, Iran possesses a massive arsenal of ballistic missiles
that could cover all of Israel. Tsevi Bareil, a well-known Israeli
researcher and writer, states that the American report has caused Tel
Aviv to lose "an important strategic wealth", and that Israel will
find it difficult to continue marketing the stereotype it tried to
spread about Iran in order to sustain on its policies in the region.
For example, it will now be difficult for Israel to demand that Syria
cut its relations with Iran as a condition for resuming peace
negotiations. Roni Daniel, military commentator for Israeli television
Channel Two, holds that the report is a harsh blow to Israel's
attempts to grow closer to Arab states -- particularly Gulf States --
because it undermines Israel's argument that the Iranian threat forms
a common denominator between them, creating groundwork for cooperation
and mutual understanding, and even an alliance based on shared
interests.
Yet most terrifying to Israeli circles is the fact that the American
report paves the way for a new stage in relations between Tehran and
Washington. Tel Aviv watched with extreme worry as Iranian President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad attended the recent Gulf summit. Strategic circles
in Tel Aviv claim that Ahmadinejad's attendance would not happened
without a green light from Washington. At the same time, these circles
worryingly point to intensified meetings between Iranian and American
diplomats in Baghdad on the invitation of Nuri Al-Maliki's government
with the aim of decreasing levels of violence in Iraq. Similarly, Tel
Aviv is pointing to agreement on the new president of Lebanon,
claiming that it indicates that a new stage of relations between the
two parties is about to ensue. In general, decision-makers in Israel
hold that the American report is a diplomatic gain for Iran.
In addition, the report represents a blow to the credibility of
Israeli intelligence agencies that have continued to portray
themselves as offering indisputable intelligence information. This
development is an extremely negative one for Israel because the West
-- and in particular Washington -- has often made decisions on the
basis of intelligence provided by Israel. Doubt over the credibility
of Israeli intelligence agencies has reached the point of Yossi
Melman, intelligence correspondent for the Israeli Haaretz newspaper,
accusing Israeli agencies of "cooking up" intelligence information to
serve the personal interests of Israeli leaders. Melman has urged his
government to respond to the suggestion of the former head of Mossad,
Efraim Halevy, to engage in dialogue with Iran.
It appears, however, that decision- makers in Israel remain intent on
a confrontational policy. Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Avigdor
Lieberman noted in an interview with Channel Two last Friday that
Israel was now alone confronting Iran. Whether this declaration is
prelude to unilateral action remains to be seen.
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AIPAC Pushing US to Attack Iran (for Israel):
http://neoconzionistthreat.blogspot.com/2007/10/re-aipac-is-pushing-us-to-war-with-iran.html
Here is a Tiny URL for the above one:
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Obama caves to pressure from Israel firsters over Mearsheimer/Walt
book
http://www.itszone.co.uk/zone0/viewtopic.php?p=403185#403185
Obama's Green. Hillary Has No Inner Life. Ergo: Edwards (but he is an
Israel firster as well - see the comments section of the following
blog entry)
http://www.philipweiss.org/mondoweiss/2007/12/obamas-green-hi.html
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Israel still pushing for war on Iran
U.S. report on Iran forces Israel to alter strategy.
... The Israeli dilemma is how to prove Iran is cheating without being
accused of trying to push the United States into war. That is why the
official strategy is to work quietly behind the scenes. ...
The new Israeli strategy is based on four main elements:
· actively pushing for stiffer international sanctions on Iran,
despite the U.S. report;
· working quietly behind the scenes to convince others through
Israel's own intelligence material that Iran is intent on producing
nuclear weapons;
· refraining from arguing with the U.S. assessment in public, lest
Israel be seen to be trying to push the United States into military
action against Iran;
· and Israel keeping open its own military options. ....
http://www.jta.org/cgi-bin/iowa/news/article/2007121120071210iranprogram.html
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Israel: U.S. Iran Report May Cause War
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,316963,00.html
Saturday , December 15, 2007
Fox News
JERUSALEM -- Israel's public security minister warned Saturday that a
U.S. intelligence report that said Iran is no longer developing
nuclear arms could lead to a regional war that would threaten the
Jewish state.
In his remarks -- Israel's harshest criticism yet of the U.S. report --
Avi Dichter said the assessment also cast doubt on American
intelligence in general, including information about Palestinian
security forces' crackdown on militant groups. The Palestinian action
is required as part of a U.S.-backed renewal of peace talks with
Israel this month.
Dichter cautioned that a refusal to recognize Iran's intentions to
build weapons of mass destruction could lead to armed conflict in the
Middle East.
He compared the possibility of such fighting to a surprise attack on
Israel in 1973 by its Arab neighbors, which came to be known in Israel
for the Yom Kippur Jewish holy day on which it began.
"The American misconception concerning Iran's nuclear weapons is
liable to lead to a regional Yom Kippur where Israel will be among the
countries that are threatened," Dichter said in a speech in a suburb
south of Tel Aviv, according to his spokesman, Mati Gil. "Something
went wrong in the American blueprint for analyzing the severity of the
Iranian nuclear threat."
Dichter didn't elaborate on the potential scenario but seemed to imply
that a world that let its guard down regarding Iran would be more
vulnerable to attack by the Islamic regime.
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert had disputed the U.S. intelligence
assessment this month, saying that Iran continues its efforts to
obtain components necessary to produce nuclear weapons. Tehran still
poses a major threat to the West and the world must stop it, Olmert
said.
Israel has for years been warning that Iran is working on nuclear
weapons and backed the United States in its international efforts to
exert pressure on Iran to stop the program. Israel considers Iran a
significant threat because of its nuclear ambitions, its long-range
missile program and repeated calls by its president, Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad, for the disappearance of Israel.
Iran says its nuclear program is for purely peaceful purposes.
Israel will work to change the American intelligence agencies' view of
Iran, said Dichter, a former chief of Israel's Shin Bet secret service
agency.
"A misconception by the world's leading superpower is not just an
internal American occurrence," Dichter said.
Any future faulty U.S. intelligence on the actions of Palestinian
security forces could damage peace efforts, Dichter said.
"Those same (intelligence) arms in the U.S. are apt to make a mistake
and declare that the Palestinians have fulfilled their commitments,
which would carry with it very serious consequences from Israel's
vantage point," Dichter said.
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Israel officials in US to discuss Iran
By AMY TEIBEL, Associated Press Writer1 hour, 57 minutes ago
Israel has dispatched an unscheduled delegation of intelligence
officials to the U.S. to try to convince it that Iran is still trying
to develop nuclear weapon -- contrary to the findings of a recent U.S.
intelligence report, security officials said.
The delegation, which set off last week on its unscheduled mission,
will wind up its visit this week, the officials said. They spoke on
condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the
matter with the media.
It was not clear what type of material the Israeli delegation -- for
the most part military intelligence officers -- presented to U.S.
officials.
The U.S. and Israel will also hold additional joint formal meetings on
the matter in coming weeks, the Israeli officials said recently.
Israel will use these forums to try to persuade the Americans that
Iran is trying to development nuclear weapons, and intends to present
information classified as top secret for security reasons, the
officials said.
The U.S. report, released earlier this month, concludes Iran halted
its weapons development program in 2003 and that the program remained
frozen through at least through the middle of this year. The findings
reversed a key conclusion from a 2005 intelligence report that Iran
was developing a bomb.
Israeli officials who have reviewed all known intelligence on Iran's
nuclear activities have concluded that Iran did in fact suspend its
atomic weapons development in 2003, after the U.S. invaded Iraq, the
Israeli security officials said. But Israel is convinced the Iranians
set up a new production line whose details aren't known fully to
Western intelligence agencies, they said.
Earlier this month, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert insisted that
Iran hasn't abandoned its attempts to develop a nuclear weapon.
On Saturday, a senior Israeli Cabinet minister who once headed
Israel's internal security agency issued the country's harshest
criticism yet of the U.S. intelligence report, calling it a
"misconception" that threatened to lead to a surprise regional war.
Public Security Minister Avi Dichter compared the possibility of such
fighting to a surprise attack on Israel in 1973 by its Arab neighbors,
which came to be known in Israel for the Yom Kippur Jewish holy day on
which it began.
"The American misconception concerning Iran's nuclear weapons is
liable to lead to a regional Yom Kippur where Israel will be among the
countries that are threatened," Dichter said in a speech in a suburb
south of Tel Aviv, according to his spokesman, Mati Gil. "Something
went wrong in the American blueprint for analyzing the severity of the
Iranian nuclear threat."
Dichter didn't elaborate on the potential scenario but seemed to imply
that a world that let its guard down regarding Iran would be more
vulnerable to attack by the Islamic regime.
Israel considers the regime in Tehran to be its biggest threat because
of its nuclear ambitions, its long-range missile program and repeated
calls by its president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, to wipe Israel off the
map.
Iran says its nuclear program is designed to produce energy.
Letters to the Editor of the Daily Princestonian by Mearsheimer & Walt
& Bill Christison (scroll down to the bottom to see Bill's excellent
letter):
http://www.itszone.co.uk/zone0/viewtopic.php?p=403355#403355