The Jay Leno Show Is Dead
Rob Jensen
http://www.tvguide.com/News/NBC-Pilots-Law-Order-1013362.aspx
18 PILOTS?!
Law & Order RENEWED!!! (In other news: Dog Bites Man.)
"We have so many holes that we have to essentially rebuild the
schedule," [NBC Entertainment Prez. Angela] Bromstad said, noting that
the increase in production is a reaction to the network's poor
prime-time performance.
Okay, I think it's a safe bet that Heroes is either cancelled or, to
be generous about it, a 13-episode final season. (5% chance of
avoiding cancellation).
This pretty much means that The Jay Leno Show is dead. As I stated
weeks ago, the affiliates are hurting so much by the lack of lead-in
from Leno that they've won the war.
-- Rob
Ian J. Ball
Uh, if "Jay Leno" is cancelled, it pretty much guarantees "Heroes"
return - at the least, it'll be one less hole to fill that way.
Smokie Darling (Annie)
> On Jan 2, 12:08 pm, Rob Jensen <ShutUp...@aol.com> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> >http://www.tvguide.com/News/NBC-Pilots-Law-Order-1013362.aspx
>
> > 18 PILOTS?!
>
> > Law & Order RENEWED!!! (In other news: Dog Bites Man.)
>
> > weeks ago, the affiliates are hurting so much by the lack of lead-in
> > from Leno that they've won the war.
>
> Uh, if "Jay Leno" is cancelled, it pretty much guarantees "Heroes"
> return - at the least, it'll be one less hole to fill that way.
Wasn't there another article (yesterday?) where the woman quoted here,
actually said that having Jay in that time slot was 5 hours *less*
that NBC had to "worry" about? I thought that meant it was safe, so
far.
The renewal of L&O makes me happy. I enjoy that particular show.
RichA
Well, Leno can spend his time cruising Barrett-Jackson car auctions
from now one then.
Dano
Yeah. How does the spectre of dumping Leno make cancelling other shows MORE
likely? I would guess the reverse would hold. Unless they're going to load
up on game shows and reality programming.
Smokie Darling (Annie)
Ugh! I dislike both game shows and reality in general (though there a
couple of reality shows I like, First 48 being one of them).
I'm just curious because I thought I'd read where she said that Leno
would be left where he was.
Mac Breck
Re, the Subject Line, that's just wishful thinking on your part, Rob.
--
Mac Breck (KoshN)
-------------------------------
"Babylon 5: Crusade" (1999) - "War Zone"
Galen (to Gideon): "I've been penalized before for helping other
people. I've been trying to decide whether or not I should risk it
again."
David
<ib...@san.rr.com> wrote:
>On Jan 2, 12:08�pm, Rob Jensen <ShutUp...@aol.com> wrote:
>> http://www.tvguide.com/News/NBC-Pilots-Law-Order-1013362.aspx
>>
>> 18 PILOTS?!
>>
>> Law & Order RENEWED!!! (In other news: Dog Bites Man.)
>>
>> "We have so many holes that we have to essentially rebuild the
>> schedule," [NBC Entertainment Prez. Angela] Bromstad said, noting that
>> the increase in production is a reaction to the network's poor
>> prime-time performance.
18 pilots isn't a lot for this time of year. This season they ordered
six shows to series, even with Leno, so they probably had around 18
pilots at this point last year. And with year-round scheduling, more
or less, all bets are off.
>> Okay, I think it's a safe bet that Heroes is either cancelled or, to
>> be generous about it, a 13-episode final season. �(5% chance of
>> avoiding cancellation).
>>
>> This pretty much means that The Jay Leno Show is dead. �As I stated
>> weeks ago, the affiliates are hurting so much by the lack of lead-in
>> from Leno that they've won the war.
>
>Uh, if "Jay Leno" is cancelled, it pretty much guarantees "Heroes"
>return - at the least, it'll be one less hole to fill that way.
It would depend on the financials. They wouldn't renew something just
to fill a hole.
Adam H. Kerman
>http://www.tvguide.com/News/NBC-Pilots-Law-Order-1013362.aspx
>18 PILOTS?!
I have no idea how many pilots would have been typical in past seasons.
Professor Bubba
Eleven pilots last year, according to the story. They haven't ordered as many as 18 since 2003.
Given what we're told here, I don't think Leno is gone yet.
David
<bu...@nowhere.edu.invalid> wrote:
>In article <hhoei4$bdk$1...@news.albasani.net>, Adam H. Kerman <a...@chinet.com> wrote:
>
>> Rob Jensen <Shut...@aol.com> wrote:
>>
>> >http://www.tvguide.com/News/NBC-Pilots-Law-Order-1013362.aspx
>>
>> >18 PILOTS?!
>>
>> I have no idea how many pilots would have been typical in past seasons.
>
>
>Eleven pilots last year, according to the story. They haven't ordered as many as 18 since 2003.
That may be because past management thought most pilots were an
unnecessary expense.
It's unclear what the article actually means by pilot - something
filmed, or something with a director and cast, or something with a
written script, or just an abstract concept that NBC likes. It's still
early in the development process, so any of those could eventually
turn into a series.
Me
"Rob Jensen" <Shut...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:hk9vj5t3ks80dk032...@4ax.com...
Why has NBC been trying to kill itself for at least the last five years?
Dano
Maybe GE needs the write offs?
WQ 3.0
5 years ago it was about 125 produced pilots. Since then, the number
steadily dropped to about 95 for 2007, then perked up a bit to over
100 last year. In the good old 3-network days, it was common practice
to produce 30-40 pilots per network.
Ian J. Ball
A 5th season will get 'em to 100 episodes (or really darn close to
that) - if it's at all on a bubble, they'll bring it back one more
year.
Rob Jensen
Season 1: 23 episodes
Season 2: 11 episodes (strike year)
Season 3: 25 episodes
Season 4: 19 episodes (unless they add a couple more)
Total: 78 episodes through the end of this season.
Given that Heroes is an expensive show to produce, I put it at nearly
even odds that Heroes will get renewed for 13 more episodes to bring
the package to 91 episodes. And ordering a full 22 episodes for next
season would bring it to the total of exactly 100 episodes. Enough
for G4 and Skiffy to continue to repeat it for a zillion more years.
-- Rob
Rob Jensen
<Barnab...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>I'm just curious because I thought I'd read where she said that Leno
>would be left where he was.
She never said that.
-- Rob
Rob Jensen
It's more clear than you think. In the interview:
-------------
"Bromstad said NBC will produce 18 pilots this spring, the most since
2003 and a marked increase over last year's 11."
That's *produce* (ie: film) NOT develop.
Bromstad continues:
-------------
"We have so many holes that we have to essentially rebuild the
schedule," Bromstad said, noting that the increase in production is a
reaction to the network's poor prime-time performance.
"In success we became used to making fewer and fewer pilots," Bromstad
said. "We have to take more swings, take more shots creatively, and
have more back-up."
IOW, they're going to be physically making (filming/shooting) more
pilots. That doesn't mean that a couplethreeorfour might not fall
apart during development, but usually, when a programming exec. says
"produce" they mean film it/shoot it and when they mean less than
that, they say "develop."
-- Rob
Rob Jensen
The quote for that is in my original post. Her quote is that Leno
"helped" the schedule (as in, this year). It's an interesting choice
of word considering that she didn't create this year's disaster of a
schedule -- her predecessor, noted junkie Ben Silverman, did.
18 pilots commissioned to production for a single network is
atypically high, especially if we were to be generous and assume that
they're going to keep Leno. It would imply that they're going to
cancel *everything* (or nearly everything) in the 8-10pm hours but Law
& Order: Original Recipe, SVU and The Biggest Loser. Yet it's highly
likely that all four of the Thursday sitcoms (okay, maybe not P&R --
fingers crossed that it DOES get cancelled) and Mercy will be back.
And FNL *will* be back for another season next spring. And I'm
figuring that either Trauma or Parenthood will be back (possibly even
both if/when Leno is gone). It would also be a good idea for them to
keep Chuck on the air for at least a fourth season just for the
fangeek cache in light of the likely cancellation of Heroes.
But let's unwind that and simplify:
* L&O -- Renewed
* Biggest Loser -- all-but(t) renewed
* SVU -- pretty much renewed (another 2-year contract for the leads at
the top of this season IIRC)
* FNL -- Renewed (already, as part of a multi-year deal), but it's the
designated midseason replacement
* Mercy -- Likely renewal (because it's apparently catching on with
soap-watchers who lack taste)
* The Office -- Likely renewal
* 30 Rock -- Likely
* Community -- Likely
* Parks and Rec. -- Likely, but least likely of these four.
* Trauma -- Chances: 40/60 or even 30/70. I'd like the show's chances
to be higher since it's a great start in quality for a first-year
show, but its expense ($3 million/ep) is an immense complication.
However, the 3-episode pick-up for the second half of the season -- in
addition to the remaining 3 episodes of its initial 13 -- strongly
suggests that NBC is currently looking at it for a 10pm timeslot next
season.
* Parenthood, Chuck, -- too many variables to add to this list yet,
since neither has premiered yet. Same for any other show that hasn't
premiered yet that I've just forgotten about.
Likely timeslot breakdown for 8pm-10pm MF based on what we know:
* Tuesday nights -- Biggest Loser -- 2 hours (could even be cut down
to 1 hour)
* Wednesday nights -- Mercy, SVU -- 2 hours
* Thursday nights -- all 2 hours/four sitcoms
* Friday nights -- L&O
That leaves only THREE hours to be filled, four if Biggest Loser were
cut down to one-hour. But regardless, commissioning 18 pilots when
there's only three or four hours to fill is unusual, especially when
the networks are trying to cut down on the number of pilots that get
greenlit to simply be produced.
Thus, only one reasonable conclusion can be made: The Jay Leno Show
is toast.
With cancelling Leno opening up five more timeslots for next year,
then the greenlite of 18 pilots makes sense. At least 8 open
timeslots. L&O can be pushed back to midseason like they always
threaten. Trauma goes to a 10pm timeslot. Mercy could get cancelled
-- or moved to 10pm if they don't pick up Trauma. SVU goest back to
10pm Tuesdays, where it belongs. With the increase of Chuck's order
to 19 episodes this year, it's a great candidate for renewal and at
the very *least* would mathematically share a timeslot with something
else, like, say, L&O in the first half of the year and Chuck in the
second or Chuck in the first half of the year and FNL the second. If
it's any good, Parenthood stays in the 9pm Wednesday timeslot where
it seems like it would be a good fit versus the other networks.
That alone would still leave the equivalent of five timeslots
available for filling (for the sake of visualizing it, MWF at 10pm, M
at 8pm and 9pm -- although Chuck would likely stay at 8pm Mondays).
In that programming-math context, cancelling Leno absolutely makes
sense. Cancelling Leno means flexibility in what to keep/cancel of
the scripted shows from this season while still keeping enough
timeslots open to logically explain why NBC is filming 18 pilots for
next season. Even considering that a few of those 18 are half-hour
sitcoms. (10 dramas, 8 sitcoms -- 14 hours).
The Jay Leno Show is toast.
One qualifier: for the purposes of further discussion of TJLS
throughout the year: if, as some have meekly suggested, the show is
simply cut down to one or two nights a week and/or 3 or 4 specials per
year, I consider that to be the same thing as the show being dead
because, well, it'd be an explicit admission that the "experiment"
failed and thus, getting even one day a week (to be cancelled at the
end of the 2010-2011 season) would be a weak attempt at giving Leno a
face-saving consolation prize.
-- Rob
Rob Jensen
Because they hired a drug abuser to program their schedule for the
past three years and it's only now that they've put someone sane in as
the head of prime time.
-- Rob
David
<ib...@san.rr.com> wrote:
I think they'll have enough episodes for syndication after this
season, but if that's why they renew it, it wouldn't be "filling a
hole."
I also wonder, since "Heroes" started out as a worldwide phenomenon,
if the fandom didn't die out in other countries the way it did in the
U.S. and maybe there's still that demand for new episodes.
David
wrote:
>On Sat, 02 Jan 2010 16:59:15 -0500, David <diml...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>>It's unclear what the article actually means by pilot - something
>>filmed, or something with a director and cast, or something with a
>>written script, or just an abstract concept that NBC likes. It's still
>>early in the development process, so any of those could eventually
>>turn into a series.
>
>It's more clear than you think. In the interview:
>
>-------------
>
>"Bromstad said NBC will produce 18 pilots this spring, the most since
>2003 and a marked increase over last year's 11."
>
>That's *produce* (ie: film) NOT develop.
Your definition of "produce" may not be theirs.
David
wrote:
>On Sat, 2 Jan 2010 13:37:04 -0800 (PST), "Smokie Darling (Annie)"
She also doesn't say anything Leno-related in the article that isn't
empty executive speak. You're reading into it what you wish.
David
wrote:
>18 pilots commissioned to production for a single network is
>atypically high
I tried to google one of those posts that has Variety's or Hollywood
Reporter's list of every network's pilot but the archive is still
broken. I'm still going to go with "un-true" because I remember those
lists to be long, and they're usually from late in the development
process when many pilots have already fallen by the wayside.
And this season ABC ordered a minimum of 11 new shows (and I may be
forgetting something) so if that's out of less than 18 pilots that
would be a very high success rate.
David
wrote:
Their schedule isn't any worse than any other network's. Their problem
is they don't have any lead-ins to build on and people aren't sampling
their shows.
WQ 3.0
Much ado over nothing. First off, 18 pilots is nothing because for
every pilot picked to series, 2 or 3 are rejected. So 18, if NBC
sticks with it as the maximum, means only 5 or 6 new shows. Out of 10
dramas, figure on 4 new ones. Out of 8 sitcoms, figure on 2 new
ones. And there you go: 6 new shows. But knowing NBC, they'll
probably hold back 2 of the dramas for mid-season, so that's only 4
new shows in the fall. How do you rebuild a network with only 4 new
shows? They'd only be repeating what they've been doing the last few
years and that's been a consistent failed strategy.
What NBC needs to do is produce 40 to 50 pilots so that it can come up
with at least 12-15 new shows, 8-10 of which would start in the fall
and the rest used as back-ups as needed through the rest of the
season. The network then seriously needs to cut every one of its
screaming losers from the schedule. Personally, I'd only leave 30
Rock and Sunday football in the lineup and scrap everything else, but
that's just me. Realistically, the network should only retain:
Sunday Football
The Biggest Loser
Law & Order: SVU
The Office
30 Rock
Dateline
Law & Order really doesn't need to be back, but it would be needed to
try to fortify the schedule somewhere
Jay Leno, but down to just 3 airings weekly
So that's 13 hours that would return, meaning 9 to fill up. How many
new shows picked for the fall? 8-10. Might have to be 11 if there's
going to be at least 4 new sitcoms along with at least 7 new dramas.
With 11 new shows, there's a good chance that 3 or 4 would return for
a second season, which is the minimum you can be lucky to get in a
decent season if you're on the right track. You definitely won't get
3 or 4 returning new shows the following season if all you put on is 3
or 4 new shows in the fall. Also, all of this would, in my book,
include a return to first-run Saturdays, which in this case would see
Biggest Loser and Dateline on that night, inexpensive programming that
would still yield profitable results, thus creating, along with 2
hours removed from Leno, more room and scheduling flexibility on
Monday through Friday for new and returning scripted shows to succeed,
with room and flexibility being what the network needs to have if it
has any hope of becoming No. 3, never mind 2 or 1. 8-10 Monday to
Friday is simply to compressed and claustrophobic for any primetime
schedule to work effectively within that boundary.
And that there is the formula for NBC success. The trick, though, is
to find shows that a lot of viewers, not just a select demo few, would
want to see.
Adam H. Kerman
The floor of some tavern?
Professor Bubba
<diml...@yahoo.com> wrote:
The least likely outcome here is that Jay Leno will be on five nights
per week in prime time next season.
There aren't many alternatives.
1) Leno gone
2) Leno cut to one or two nights per week
3) Leno back on at 11:35 every night, O'Brien gone
4) Leno on at 11:35, O'Brien back on at 12:35, Fallon gone.
2 is most likely, I think. Then 3. 1 won't happen because NBC won't
let Leno go, and 4 won't happen because O'Brien won't accept 12:30. As
for Fallon, who cares? They can show a movie or something.
David
<bu...@nowhere.edu.invalid> wrote:
>The least likely outcome here is that Jay Leno will be on five nights
>per week in prime time next season.
>
>There aren't many alternatives.
>
>1) Leno gone
>
>2) Leno cut to one or two nights per week
>
>3) Leno back on at 11:35 every night, O'Brien gone
>
>4) Leno on at 11:35, O'Brien back on at 12:35, Fallon gone.
>
>
>2 is most likely, I think. Then 3. 1 won't happen because NBC won't
>let Leno go, and 4 won't happen because O'Brien won't accept 12:30. As
>for Fallon, who cares? They can show a movie or something.
I think 3 and 4 is very unlikely. It'll be humiliating for all
involved, they'll have to give Conan a huge payout, and they'll
probably lose him. 2 is unlikely because the show isn't conducive to
being on once a week. They'll have to change it into some sort of
variety show and it's questionable whether Leno wants to be their
monkey when he'll have other offers to do any kind of show he wants.
I think next year Leno will either be on 5 days a week or not at all.
I won't make a prediction which because I haven't yet seen any serious
analysis of how he's doing or any word of how NBC feels.
Steve Newport
Community -- Likely
SN: If COMMUNITY is renewed while P & R is not, the network deserves to
die.
Steve Newport
Sunday Football
The Biggest Loser
I'd be thrilled to see all of these replaced.
Rob Jensen
>On Sat, 02 Jan 2010 19:30:58 -0600, Rob Jensen <Shut...@aol.com>
>wrote:
>
>>On Sat, 2 Jan 2010 14:40:26 -0800, "Me" <meatacmewidgetsdotcom> wrote:
>
>>>Why has NBC been trying to kill itself for at least the last five years?
>>
>>Because they hired a drug abuser to program their schedule for the
>>past three years and it's only now that they've put someone sane in as
>>the head of prime time.
>
>Their schedule isn't any worse than any other network's.
Are you high? The Jay Leno Show is fucking over affiliates, Heroes is
dead, Mercy is a joke, SVU is declining into camp, two hours a week
are devoted to a reality show whose mission is to diminish a health
problem (but only creates more health problems). And whatever the
hell is on on Friday nights that isn't TJLS or L&O. Oh, and Parks and
Recreation is a dump, The Office is getting decrepit.
That leaves 30 Rock, Community, FNL, Chuck and Parenthood. And
Trauma, if NBC renews it (and they should.)
>Their problem
>is they don't have any lead-ins to build on and people aren't sampling
>their shows.
The problems are these: 1/3rd of their schedule is given over to a
talk show that prime time viewers don't want to watch and at least
half of the rest of their lineup sucks.
It's *really* THAT simple.
-- Rob
Rob Jensen
<bu...@nowhere.edu.invalid> wrote:
Neither 3 nor 4 will happen because either way, O'Brien would leave,
which would be dumb in so many ways, the best of which being that
O'Brien would already be entrenched there when Letterman finally
retires (which I think would be in the next 3-5 years).
2 is possible as a face-saving measure, but I think that
1 is most likely, given that he's the equivalent of Box Office Poison
for the affiliates, but it isn't 1, then it's
5 (or 1.5) Leno cut down to a monthly special that they finally give
up on around February or March of next year.
But, really, I don't think that *Leno* would stand for either #2 or my
own alternative here. He'd likely leave because, well, he still loves
to do stand-up, he doesn't need the money from any TV gig anymore and
he wouldn't humiliate himself with a further demotion from a demotion
that he shouldn't have accepted in the first place. And I say that as
a person who intensely dislikes Leno's work. Given that he took the
original nudge out the door in the deal five years ago, he never
should have accepted the TJLS deal, which was a *clear* demotion from
the get-go.
-- Rob
Steve Newport
The Office is getting decrepit.
I'm enjoying both this season.
Adam H. Kerman
>That leaves 30 Rock, Community, FNL, Chuck and Parenthood. And
>Trauma, if NBC renews it (and they should.)
Friday Night Lights no longer counts as an NBC program, which lacks
first-run rights.
Lord Vader III
>
> In that programming-math context, cancelling Leno absolutely makes
> sense. Cancelling Leno means flexibility in what to keep/cancel of
> the scripted shows from this season while still keeping enough
> timeslots open to logically explain why NBC is filming 18 pilots for
> next season. Even considering that a few of those 18 are half-hour
> sitcoms. (10 dramas, 8 sitcoms -- 14 hours).
>
> The Jay Leno Show is toast.
Cancelling Leno would mean that NBC would be admitting it was a
mistake to put him there. They are not going to do that after only
one season. Leno will be back next season and most likely for 5
nights a week again (unfortunately). Just because they ordered 18
pilots doesn't mean they are going to pick up all 18. They will
probably pick up 5 or 6 of them at the most which they can easily
schedule in while retaining Leno five nights a week.
LVIII
shawn
<Barnab...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>On Jan 2, 2:08�pm, "Ian J. Ball" <ib...@san.rr.com> wrote:
>> On Jan 2, 12:08�pm, Rob Jensen <ShutUp...@aol.com> wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> >http://www.tvguide.com/News/NBC-Pilots-Law-Order-1013362.aspx
>>
>> > 18 PILOTS?!
>>
>> > Law & Order RENEWED!!! (In other news: Dog Bites Man.)
>>
>> > This pretty much means that The Jay Leno Show is dead. �As I stated
>> > weeks ago, the affiliates are hurting so much by the lack of lead-in
>> > from Leno that they've won the war.
>>
>> Uh, if "Jay Leno" is cancelled, it pretty much guarantees "Heroes"
>> return - at the least, it'll be one less hole to fill that way.
>
>Wasn't there another article (yesterday?) where the woman quoted here,
>actually said that having Jay in that time slot was 5 hours *less*
>that NBC had to "worry" about? I thought that meant it was safe, so
>far.
She did. Which makes me believe any show that isn't doing well this
spring will be a cancelled. Sadly that almost certainly means "Chuck"
and "Heroes" will be ending this spring. Unless the 18 shows they
chose to go to pilot all end up being truly awful. If that happens
then it's time to look for a new head of NBC again.
>
>The renewal of L&O makes me happy. I enjoy that particular show.
I'm glad to see it renewed too. I don't watch it that often any more
but it's not a show that I dislike so having it stick around for
another year or two is okay with me.
shawn
I tend to agree. All reports coming from Leno said that he didn't want
to do the typical variety show and that he really wanted to be on five
nights a week. So it's unlikely he would now agree to being on only
one or two nights a week. They might kill his show but hold him to the
contract so he can't go to another network next year. That gives them
some time to try to build up the Tonight Show before Leno gets another
talk show.
Smokie Darling (Annie)
> On Sat, 2 Jan 2010 13:37:04 -0800 (PST), "Smokie Darling (Annie)"
>
> >I'm just curious because I thought I'd read where she said that Leno
> >would be left where he was.
>
> She never said that.
>
> -- Rob
Let me see, I tried to post this yesterday, but got side tracked:
Despite the extra development, Bromstad says production costs won't
rise. It is unclear, however, how this aggressive development will
play into NBC's scheduling, which devotes five prime-time hours to The
Jay Leno Show. No announcement has been made about the talk show's
future beyond this season, but Bromstad suggests moving Leno to 10/9c
has helped.
"Not having the additional five hours has certainly relieved some of
the pressure," Bromstad said of building a new schedule.
Now, I'd read this (the last bit) and read it as her saying that Leno
would be there. Not having to schedule for those five hours being
"less stressful".
Whether I read more there than was actually meant is open for debate.
It was taken from the link you provided.
Smokie Darling (Annie)
No, actually, the link that Rob quoted, it's further down in the
article, after the first bit.
Don't actually do taverns, as I would have to drive home, and that's
not safe. Much better to have a few at home.
record hunter
shawn
<Barnab...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>On Jan 2, 6:30�pm, Rob Jensen <ShutUp...@aol.com> wrote:
>> On Sat, 2 Jan 2010 13:37:04 -0800 (PST), "Smokie Darling (Annie)"
>>
>> <Barnabus1...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>> >I'm just curious because I thought I'd read where she said that Leno
>> >would be left where he was.
>>
>> She never said that.
>>
>> � -- Rob
>
>Let me see, I tried to post this yesterday, but got side tracked:
>
>Despite the extra development, Bromstad says production costs won't
>rise. It is unclear, however, how this aggressive development will
>play into NBC's scheduling, which devotes five prime-time hours to The
>Jay Leno Show. No announcement has been made about the talk show's
>future beyond this season, but Bromstad suggests moving Leno to 10/9c
>has helped.
I can't see how production costs won't rise if they replace Leno.
Every sitcom/drama series will end up costing more than the Leno show
so that suggests they don't plan to get rid of Leno at this time.
>"Not having the additional five hours has certainly relieved some of
>the pressure," Bromstad said of building a new schedule.
>
>Now, I'd read this (the last bit) and read it as her saying that Leno
>would be there. Not having to schedule for those five hours being
>"less stressful".
I agree. It definitely looks like they won't be getting rid of Leno at
this time. Of course that could change before the next TV season
starts in the fall. I suppose if Leno keeps his ratings then they will
keep him around another year.
Anim8rFSK
Professor Bubba <bu...@nowhere.edu.invalid> wrote:
> 2) Leno cut to one or two nights per week
Maybe weekends, when nothing is on anyway?
--
Tiger Woods has just been named "Athlete of the Decade"
His chosen event? The Broad Jump.
Steve Newport
spring.
Good!
Smokie Darling (Annie)
> On Sat, 2 Jan 2010 13:13:18 -0800 (PST), "Smokie Darling (Annie)"
>
>
>
>
>
> <Barnabus1...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> >On Jan 2, 2:08 pm, "Ian J. Ball" <ib...@san.rr.com> wrote:
> >> On Jan 2, 12:08 pm, Rob Jensen <ShutUp...@aol.com> wrote:
>
> >> >http://www.tvguide.com/News/NBC-Pilots-Law-Order-1013362.aspx
>
> >> > 18 PILOTS?!
>
> >> > Law & Order RENEWED!!! (In other news: Dog Bites Man.)
>
> >> > This pretty much means that The Jay Leno Show is dead. As I stated
> >> > weeks ago, the affiliates are hurting so much by the lack of lead-in
> >> > from Leno that they've won the war.
>
> >> Uh, if "Jay Leno" is cancelled, it pretty much guarantees "Heroes"
> >> return - at the least, it'll be one less hole to fill that way.
>
> >Wasn't there another article (yesterday?) where the woman quoted here,
> >actually said that having Jay in that time slot was 5 hours *less*
> >that NBC had to "worry" about? I thought that meant it was safe, so
> >far.
>
> She did. Which makes me believe any show that isn't doing well this
> spring will be a cancelled. Sadly that almost certainly means "Chuck"
> and "Heroes" will be ending this spring. Unless the 18 shows they
> chose to go to pilot all end up being truly awful. If that happens
> then it's time to look for a new head of NBC again.
I could never get into Chuck, and I tried. Heroes lost me in that
weird season (the second one?). It was just too out there, the first
year was dang near great though.
I'll take the job (head of NBC). Couldn't possibly be any worse,
could I?
> >The renewal of L&O makes me happy. I enjoy that particular show.
>
> I'm glad to see it renewed too. I don't watch it that often any more
> but it's not a show that I dislike so having it stick around for
> another year or two is okay with me.
I had stopped watching for a while (Melina Govich). Came back when
she left though.
Rob Jensen
The wikipedia entry on Heroes indicates that it's popular in the UK,
Germany, Hong Kong, but has had drop-off in several other countries,
Poland, the Netherlands, and South Africa (the last of which cancelled
it). Curiously, the entry *doesn't* cite ratings in, among other
places, Japan, where IIRC, it's a big hit or Canada (Japan's ratings
aren't mentioned at all and Canada's are simply, that it airs
simultaneously with NBC on Global). Although at the time of the most
recent update of the entry, the current season still hadn't premiered
in the UK, the BBC ratings for last season put it in the 3.2
million-ish area in total viewership (my oversimplification), which,
proportionally makes it a much bigger show in the UK than in the US.
IF these stats and reasonable guesses hold true, then I think it's
reasonable to figure that even though the show is running out of steam
here, it's still popular enough in other key countries -- especially
the UK (which has a rabid fanbase for SF/F in general), Germany and,
taking it on faith, Japan -- that the show is still in the running to
return next season to fill out the US syndication package, the foreign
sales syndication package and DVD sales everywhere.
I think it's worth noting, too, that with only eight episodes left in
this season -- two of them to air tomorrow night, one more a week from
tomorrow after, with five left after that -- that the actors on the
show are especially eager to find out if the show is going to be
renewed so that they can get their own work schedules and any
potential movie deals in order sooner rather than later, with Hayden
Pannetierre, Milo V. and Zachary Quinto being the most critical actors
to secure commitments for next season. So my guess right now is that
if we don't hear either way about the show's fate sometime between now
and late February, that'll mean that the show's chances for renewal
might be stronger than snarky domestic ratings commentators (Berman)
think.
So let's look at, the five typical scenarios regarding the fate of
really, for any show:
1) cancellation
2) renewal for front 13 *only* (ep count may vary to as high as 16 ala
Friends)
3) renewal for front 13 with option for back 9 (may vary to as low as
19-ish)
4) renewal for full 22 episode season
5) multi-year renewal
In reverse order:
I think that 5 is the only one that it's safe to rule out entirely
barring a creative resurgence (possible) *that clicks with the
audience* (possible too) *in a way that returns it to status as a
phenomenon (unlikely). Pleople like to forget that Friends was just
as reviled around its 6th season or so, with both crtics and fans
expecting it to get cancelled, until it took off creatively again when
Chandler proposed to Monica. Still, there's, like, a 1% chance of
that happening. (Figure pulled out of my ass for the sake of
argument.)
Given the show's potential for renewal due to revenue generated by
DVDs and syndication/foreign sales, option 4 is very much possible
*because* a 22-episode renewal would bring it to exactly 100 episodes
(for syndication/foreign) and a fifth DVD package. It's worth keeping
in mind here that even with the budget cuts this year, Heroes is
*still* expensive to produce and moreover, that the even greater
expenses of the earlier seasons, where the budget for each episode was
much higher, NBC may need to fill out the package just to minimize the
deficit-spending for the earlier seasons.
3 is a variation of 4 -- a pretty good chance of it happening, but
with NBC hedging its bets regarding whether or not the show can pay
for itself for just next year. Essentially, 3 is a weaker vote of
confidence in the show than 4.
2 is the weakest variation of 4, with NBC signalling that the best
they think they can do in minimizing the show's expense is to give it
a minimal renewal for *just close enough* to 100 to wash its hands of
the last nine. Paramount did a less extreme form of this by renewing
ENT for only a fourth season (when a fifth was expected), leaving it
two short of 100.
1 is, of course, what most people expect at this point and 5 almost
certainly won't happen. I'm leaning toward NBC doing 2, with 4 and
then 3 also still being plausible. But really, in order of descending
plausibility, 1, then a bit back 2, 4 and 3, and waaaaaaaaaaaaaay
back, 5.
-- Rob
Mac Breck
<snip>
> She did. Which makes me believe any show that isn't doing well this
> spring will be a cancelled. Sadly that almost certainly means "Chuck"
> and "Heroes" will be ending this spring.
That would be two of the three shows I watch on NBC, the other being
Conan.
--
Mac Breck (KoshN)
-------------------------------
"Babylon 5: Crusade" (1999) - "War Zone"
Galen (to Gideon): "I've been penalized before for helping other
people. I've been trying to decide whether or not I should risk it
again."
Rob Jensen
wrote:
I suspect that if/when NBC cancels TJLS and if NBC tries to hold Leno
to the second year of the contract, then Leno won't put up with it and
we'll see dueling lawsuits. Which NBC doesn't want to afford. (Yeah,
that last sentence is indeed my observation of NBC's strange
motivations for anything that they do. BID.) He won't have been paid
for the second year by that point anyway, so they'll pretty much
*have* to buy him out of the second year of his contract. Probably
too costly for them to do any sort of a real non-compete clause.
And as much as I don't like Leno's work, NBC has pretty much treated
him like shit in this whole situation, so even though I *want* to see
this wholly unnecessary piece of crap shopw disappear from existence
and thereby return the five hours per week to scripted programming, I
hope that whatever he gets out of them for the cancellation of the
show, it's good. And if it goes to lawsuit (after the 2010-2011
season with its non-Leno lineup premieres), that he wins.
-- Rob
Steve Newport
watching L & O for a while (Melina Govich).
---------------------------------
She wasn't THAT bad.
Anim8rFSK
"Mac Breck" <macthe...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> shawn wrote:
> <snip>
> > She did. Which makes me believe any show that isn't doing well this
> > spring will be a cancelled. Sadly that almost certainly means "Chuck"
> > and "Heroes" will be ending this spring.
> <snip>
>
> That would be two of the three shows I watch on NBC, the other being
> Conan.
What he said, except I don't watch Heroes and I avoid Conan like the
plague.
Smokie Darling (Annie)
> From: Barnabus1...@yahoo.com (Smokie Darling (Annie)) I had stopped
> watching L & O for a while (Melina Govich).
> ---------------------------------
> She wasn't THAT bad.
I like her in general, did not like her in that role.
record hunter
> In article <Uu-dnUR7Ia6T7tzWnZ2dnUVZ_j4AA...@supernews.com>,
> "Mac Breck" <macthevor...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
> > shawn wrote:
> > <snip>
> > > She did. Which makes me believe any show that isn't doing well this
> > > spring will be a cancelled. Sadly that almost certainly means "Chuck"
> > > and "Heroes" will be ending this spring.
> > <snip>
>
> > That would be two of the three shows I watch on NBC, the other being
> > Conan.
>
> What he said, except I don't watch Heroes and I avoid Conan like the
> plague.
I wish they'd just do a Do-Over, and make it up to Jimmy Fallon by
letting him go back to SNL at his current salary (Hey, "Sully" was one
of the only interesting characters of the entire '00s).
Mac Breck
So, you mean put Leno back in The Tonight Show, and Conan back after
Leno? That would be admitting mistake, and NBC Execs would rather drop
dead than do that.
Dan Dassow
> So, you mean put Leno back in The Tonight Show, and Conan back after
> Leno? That would be admitting mistake, and NBC Execs would rather drop
> dead than do that.
More generally, television executives would rather drop dead than
admit a mistake, and a television executive would prefer to have all
of nothing rather share half of something.
Dan Dassow
record hunter
> record hunter wrote:
> > On Jan 4, 11:28 am, Anim8rFSK <ANIM8R...@cox.net> wrote:
> >> In article <Uu-dnUR7Ia6T7tzWnZ2dnUVZ_j4AA...@supernews.com>,
> >> "Mac Breck" <macthevor...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
> >>> shawn wrote:
> >>> <snip>
> >>>> She did. Which makes me believe any show that isn't doing well this
> >>>> spring will be a cancelled. Sadly that almost certainly means
> >>>> "Chuck" and "Heroes" will be ending this spring.
> >>> <snip>
>
> >>> That would be two of the three shows I watch on NBC, the other being
> >>> Conan.
>
> >> What he said, except I don't watch Heroes and I avoid Conan like the
> >> plague.
>
> > I wish they'd just do a Do-Over, and make it up to Jimmy Fallon by
> > letting him go back to SNL at his current salary (Hey, "Sully" was one
> > of the only interesting characters of the entire '00s).
>
> So, you mean put Leno back in The Tonight Show, and Conan back after
> Leno? That would be admitting mistake, and NBC Execs would rather drop
> dead than do that.
Well, there soon may not be any of those execs to have drop dead.
(Please, God, please.)
David
wrote:
>On Sat, 02 Jan 2010 21:36:59 -0500, David <diml...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>>On Sat, 02 Jan 2010 19:30:58 -0600, Rob Jensen <Shut...@aol.com>
>>wrote:
>>
>>>On Sat, 2 Jan 2010 14:40:26 -0800, "Me" <meatacmewidgetsdotcom> wrote:
>>
>>>>Why has NBC been trying to kill itself for at least the last five years?
>>>
>>>Because they hired a drug abuser to program their schedule for the
>>>past three years and it's only now that they've put someone sane in as
>>>the head of prime time.
>>
>>Their schedule isn't any worse than any other network's.
>
>Are you high? The Jay Leno Show is fucking over affiliates, Heroes is
>dead, Mercy is a joke, SVU is declining into camp, two hours a week
>are devoted to a reality show whose mission is to diminish a health
>problem (but only creates more health problems). And whatever the
>hell is on on Friday nights that isn't TJLS or L&O. Oh, and Parks and
>Recreation is a dump, The Office is getting decrepit.
Their "2-hour reality show" is popular. Their 8-10 Wednesday and
Friday lineups are competitive. Just because you don't like these
shows doesn't mean they're "high" for putting them on.
The new shows Silverman's put on may or may not be great depending on
your tastes but they're no worse than what other networks are doing.
"Trauma" and "Mercy" are no different than "NCIS: LA" and "Private
Practice." NBC's main problem is they aren't being sampled. "Trauma"
premiered to 6.9 million, "Mercy" to 8.2 million and "Community" to
7.7 million. Given the expected fall-off new shows go through, that
makes them almost dead on arrival.
>That leaves 30 Rock, Community, FNL, Chuck and Parenthood. And
>Trauma, if NBC renews it (and they should.)
Under Silverman NBC's come up with "30 Rock," "Friday Night Lights,"
"Chuck," "Heroes," " Community" and "Journeyman" and before that his
production company added "The Office." During that stretch only ABC
comes close with "Better Off Ted," "Modern Family," "Pushing Daisies"
and "FlashForward."
Maybe every programming exec should get "high."
>>Their problem
>>is they don't have any lead-ins to build on and people aren't sampling
>>their shows.
>
>The problems are these: 1/3rd of their schedule is given over to a
>talk show
We've already talked about Leno. The intention was that it would be
profitable, not that it would be popular.
David
wrote:
>On Sat, 2 Jan 2010 13:13:18 -0800 (PST), "Smokie Darling (Annie)"
><Barnab...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>>Wasn't there another article (yesterday?) where the woman quoted here,
>>actually said that having Jay in that time slot was 5 hours *less*
>>that NBC had to "worry" about? I thought that meant it was safe, so
>>far.
>
>She did. Which makes me believe any show that isn't doing well this
>spring will be a cancelled. Sadly that almost certainly means "Chuck"
>and "Heroes" will be ending this spring.
I think "Chuck" will meet NBC's low expectations. It's also a good
team player in being willing to do what it needs to survive, and I
imagine Warner Bros will give NBC a good deal to get one more season
for syndication.
Adam H. Kerman
>record hunter wrote:
>> On Jan 4, 11:28 am, Anim8rFSK <ANIM8R...@cox.net> wrote:
>>> In article <Uu-dnUR7Ia6T7tzWnZ2dnUVZ_j4AA...@supernews.com>,
>>> "Mac Breck" <macthevor...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> shawn wrote:
>>>> <snip>
>>>>> She did. Which makes me believe any show that isn't doing well this
>>>>> spring will be a cancelled. Sadly that almost certainly means
>>>>> "Chuck" and "Heroes" will be ending this spring.
>>>> <snip>
>>>
>>>> That would be two of the three shows I watch on NBC, the other being
>>>> Conan.
>>>
>>> What he said, except I don't watch Heroes and I avoid Conan like the
>>> plague.
>>
>> I wish they'd just do a Do-Over, and make it up to Jimmy Fallon by
>> letting him go back to SNL at his current salary (Hey, "Sully" was one
>> of the only interesting characters of the entire '00s).
>
>So, you mean put Leno back in The Tonight Show, and Conan back after
>Leno? That would be admitting mistake, and NBC Execs would rather drop
>dead than do that.
Programming executives dropping dead... I'd watch that! Guaranteed big ratings!
Steve Newport
watching L & O for a while (Melina Govich). I like her in general, did
not like her in that role.
I liked her more in it as it went on, but it took a while.
Mac Breck
> On Jan 4, 3:13 pm, "Mac Breck" <macthevor...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>> So, you mean put Leno back in The Tonight Show, and Conan back after
>> Leno? That would be admitting mistake, and NBC Execs would rather
>> drop dead than do that.
>
> More generally, television executives would rather drop dead than
> admit a mistake,
True.
> and a television executive would prefer to have all
> of nothing rather share half of something.
Didn't Warner Brothers *invent* that rule? They probably have it
patented, and teach it in executive seminars and indoctrinations.
Pete B
Shut...@aol.com says...
> This pretty much means that The Jay Leno Show is dead. As I stated
> weeks ago, the affiliates are hurting so much by the lack of lead-in
> from Leno that they've won the war.
Its interesting to read old news, here you say he is dead - then a week
later you say he can't be *g*
And now all the newssites are saying he has to move - tsk tsk.