Quadibloc <
jsa...@ecn.ab.ca> wrote
That last is just plain wrong when the unemployment rate bottomed
at 4.x% with an immense illegal and legal immigration rate, and the
participation rate at an all time historic high, just before the clowns
were allowed to completely implode much of the world's financial
system, again.
> As opposed to the "normal" conditions of the postwar economic boom
> where there was significant upward mobility into the middle class
That still happens today, most obviously with immigrants from the third
world.
> and low unemployment.
And that still happens today too
> Had those conditions continued, with the attainment
> of legal equality for black people during the 1970s, by
> today there would _be_ almost no black underclass,
There will ALWAYS be an underclass, if only because
some will always be into drugs rather than work etc.
Even more than there used to be in some ways
now that so many of the worst jobs have been
automated or have moved off to china etc.
> and we would have real racial equality in the U.S. -
I don't believe that happens anywhere.
> instead of merely claims from right-wingers that since Barack
> Obama can be President, obviously there is no longer a race
> issue, and black people should just shut up and work harder.
It's a valid point with those who decide
that drug running is where the money is.
Corse that's not unique to the blacks.
> Still, though, I don't think the fault is some sort of conspiracy,
> or even lack of vision, from business people. They're out there
> to make money in the existing world economic conditions. Give
> them one sort of conditions, and they'll be hiring and investing
> in new technology; give them another, and they will retrench.
I don't believe that anything politicians can do
policy wise can do much about that sort of thing.
That cant be the reason that so much technology happened
first in the US in say the century between 1850 and 1950.
The cause of that has to be MUCH more fundamental.
And it hasn't stopped either, most obviously
with ebay, google, facebook, ipods etc etc etc.
> Historically, the war-boom-bust cycle has been
> a long-term feature of developed economies.
We didn't actually see that post WW2. Its very
arguable whether that was due to the cold war,
Korea, or stuff like the Marshall Plan etc.
> When environmental conditions are good,
> population increases until the ratio of people
> to the existing resources becomes unfavorable -
That's stopped happening now in the modern first world.
NOT ONE modern first world country is even self replacing
on population now if you take out immigration.
Its less clear why that's happened, whether it's the
number of women working now or just what its due to.
> this is true for humans just as it is for aphids infesting a mushroom.
Not anymore its not.
Even in the third world, birth rates keep dropping. The only
exception is where the birth rate is already way below the
replacement level where you do see a bit of noise in the numbers.
> What is needed to change the relationship between
> people and their environment is investment in new
> technologies that allow more people to be supported.
That isnt needed in the US where the unemployment rate
bottomed at 4.x% with an immense illegal and legal immigration
rate, and the participation rate at an all time historic high, just
before the clowns were allowed to completely implode much
of the world's financial system, again.
> This can happen in peacetime
Yes, it obviously did with computers and communications.
> - a very notable example is the "Green Revolution",
> for which its spearhead, Norman Borlaug, has recently
> received belated credit (for somewhat unfortunate
> ideological reasons to some extent, but I digress) - but
> in general, the market rewards investment in technology
> only when it translates into products in short order.
That's not really true. Self publishing and blogs etc didn't
turn into products in short order and took off fine.
> This is why, currently, progress is mainly in computers
That's not right.
> - integrated circuitry is not yet a mature technology,
> so investments in research there have a big payoff.
Its actually the maturity of the technology that's the biggest factor.
> A *war*, on the other hand, spurs massive spending on research and
> development in many areas, at least some of which have useful peacetime
> applications that the market would have found difficult to address.
That didn't really happen anything like as much with Korea and later.
The only thing that really came out of Korea was
chopper evacuation of serious accident victims.
Fuck all came out of vietnam except laser guided bombs etc.
Nothing of any real value came out of the invasion of Iraq at all.
Tho terrorists would claim that IEDs did.
Pilotless drones have come out of Afghanistan, but that's about it.
The only thing that came out of the Boer
War was concentration camps for civilians.
> A new technical toolkit changes the amount of resources a
> given population requires to live at a given level of comfort.
Yes, but that's never something that any political policy produces
except in the sense that WW1 and WW2 did produce quite a bit of that.
> So, in my opinion, more government support
> of science and technology is required.
That's not my opinion given that the PC
did fine without any govt support at all.
> However, even more important are things with a
> shorter- term payoff, such as applying the technologies
> we already have; increasing our supply of energy through
> nuclear power is the most obvious one.
Sure. Difficult politically tho.