Ajah Sizes. . .again
Adam Crosier
better.
I am curious if anyone else has given some idle speculation to the number of
Aes Sedai in each Ajah. I have not seen this covered in the FAQ, and have
not seen it posted before so I thought I would bring it up and my thoughts
on it.
The books indicate that there are roughly 900 Aes Sedai, 300 with Egwene,
300 with Elaida and another 300 waiting to see what happens with the Tower.
The Guide also tells us that the Red Ajah is the largest, closely followed
by the Green, then in descending order the Gray, Brown, Yellow, Blue, and
White. The Guide also says that 1 out of every 5 Aes Sedai is of the Red
Ajah, so if my math is correct that means there are 180 Red sisters. Since
the Green is close behind, I've estimated that they number perhaps 165-170.
What I have also assumed is that all the Red sisters are with Elaida, so
that means there are only 120 Aes Sedai following Elaida from other Ajahs
(none of the Blue of course). I've also assumed that all the Blue sisters
are following Egwene. I'm wondering if anyone has ever tried to work out
the number of sisters in each Ajah, as well as the numbers in each Ajah
following Elaida, Egwene, or who are fencesitters. I'm also curious if
anyone has tried to estimate the number of Black sisters, my personal
estimate is between 75-100. Well let me know your thoughts.
Adam Crosier
_________________________________________________________________
Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com
--
Posted from [130.203.167.217] by way of f81.law10.hotmail.com [64.4.15.81]
via Mailgate.ORG Server - http://www.Mailgate.ORG
Dave Rothgery
> Hello Everyone. . .sorry for the format of my first posting, I hope this is
> better.
It is.
Thanks for not taking it personally.
> What I have also assumed is that all the Red sisters are with Elaida, so
> that means there are only 120 Aes Sedai following Elaida from other Ajahs
> (none of the Blue of course). I've also assumed that all the Blue sisters
> are following Egwene.
That's safe enough.
> I'm wondering if anyone has ever tried to work out
> the number of sisters in each Ajah, as well as the numbers in each Ajah
> following Elaida, Egwene, or who are fencesitters.
The easily predicted patterns:
The Greens almost certainly broke heavily for the rebels; they're the
traditional allies of the Blue, traditional enemies of the Red, and Min
told Siuan, just after she was stilled, that there were few Greens in
Tar Valon. Also, the rebels almost certainly had to have the strong
backing of a large Ajah to be able to match the Elaida's numbers. Figure
the Grays are mostly in Elaida's camp or fencesitters, because of
similar traditional alliances.
Then we've got the unexpected:
The Yellow seems to have broken strongly for the rebels, despite their
traditional fence-sitter role in the Red/Blue conflicts. This may have
been due to Romanda's influence. Meanwhile, the White broke their
traditional pattern and strongly supported Elaida; this was certainly
due to Alviarin's influence.
Which leaves the Browns as the only Ajah that are mostly fence-sitters,
I'd guess. I can't see most of them caring all that much who's the
Amyrlin, as long is she doesn't cut their research budget.
> I'm also curious if
> anyone has tried to estimate the number of Black sisters, my personal
> estimate is between 75-100. Well let me know your thoughts.
It's probably about that. Certainly no more than 150 or so, or they'd be
able to complete subvert the Tower. On the other hand, fewer than 75 or
so makes the notion of a ruling council of 13 seem a bit silly.
--
Dave Rothgery
Picking nits since 1976
drot...@myrealbox.com
http://drothgery.editthispage.com
Mark Leigh
> Adam Crosier <chao...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> > Hello Everyone. . .sorry for the format of my first posting, I hope this is
> > better.
>
> It is.
> Thanks for not taking it personally.
>
> > What I have also assumed is that all the Red sisters are with Elaida, so
> > that means there are only 120 Aes Sedai following Elaida from other Ajahs
> > (none of the Blue of course). I've also assumed that all the Blue sisters
> > are following Egwene.
>
> That's safe enough.
It seems amusing that, if these numbers are right, there are 1.5 times as
many Reds in the White Tower as all the other Ajahs combined. Are there
any implications leaping out from this that I'm missing, other than that
Egwene's AS have to win, because if they didn't the Reds would still be in
power but obsolete with the Taint gone?
Oleg Ozerov
"Mark Leigh" <mle...@nerp.net> wrote
> On Wed, 18 Apr 2001, Dave Rothgery wrote:
> It seems amusing that, if these numbers are right, there are 1.5 times as
> many Reds in the White Tower as all the other Ajahs combined. Are there
> any implications leaping out from this that I'm missing, other than that
> Egwene's AS have to win, because if they didn't the Reds would still be in
> power but obsolete with the Taint gone?
ObTVShow: You _are_ the weakest link. Good-bye.
Some numbers can be compensated by the large number (ca. 300) of AS at
large. We know little of the composition of that group.
--
O.
Dave Rothgery
That's not quite true.
We know there are very few, if any, Reds or Blues in that group, and not
that many Greens (for the most part, among the rebels) or Whites (for
the most part, with Elaida).
We know there are no Sitters in that group (which means that one of the
pre-coup Blue Sitters is dead).
We know that a substantial group of them are allied with Cadsuane.
Mark Leigh
>
> "Mark Leigh" <mle...@nerp.net> wrote
> > On Wed, 18 Apr 2001, Dave Rothgery wrote:
>
> > It seems amusing that, if these numbers are right, there are 1.5 times as
> > many Reds in the White Tower as all the other Ajahs combined. Are there
> > any implications leaping out from this that I'm missing, other than that
> > Egwene's AS have to win, because if they didn't the Reds would still be in
> > power but obsolete with the Taint gone?
>
> ObTVShow: You _are_ the weakest link. Good-bye.
My, you're a wit, aren't you?
> Some numbers can be compensated by the large number (ca. 300) of AS at
> large. We know little of the composition of that group.
This is true, but how many Reds do you suppose are fence-sitting?
Oleg Ozerov
"Mark Leigh" <mle...@nerp.net> wrote
> On Mon, 23 Apr 2001, Oleg Ozerov wrote:
> > "Mark Leigh" <mle...@nerp.net> wrote
> > > On Wed, 18 Apr 2001, Dave Rothgery wrote:
> >
> > > It seems amusing that, if these numbers are right, there are 1.5 times
as
> > > many Reds in the White Tower as all the other Ajahs combined. Are
there
> > > any implications leaping out from this that I'm missing, other than
that
> > > Egwene's AS have to win, because if they didn't the Reds would still
be in
> > > power but obsolete with the Taint gone?
> >
> > ObTVShow: You _are_ the weakest link. Good-bye.
>
> My, you're a wit, aren't you?
I meant the Red Ajah, not you, although I'm not sure that you misunderstood,
just in case.
> > Some numbers can be compensated by the large number (ca. 300) of AS at
> > large. We know little of the composition of that group.
>
> This is true, but how many Reds do you suppose are fence-sitting?
Somehow I think that some are. Probably a fairly small number but how small
we don't know. Besides, Red is the largest Ajah.
--
O.
Oleg Ozerov
"Dave Rothgery" <drot...@myrealbox.com> wrote
> Oleg Ozerov <Ozzypti...@worldnet.att.net> wrote:
> > "Mark Leigh" <mle...@nerp.net> wrote
> > > On Wed, 18 Apr 2001, Dave Rothgery wrote:
> >
> > > It seems amusing that, if these numbers are right, there are 1.5 times
as
> > > many Reds in the White Tower as all the other Ajahs combined. Are
there
> > > any implications leaping out from this that I'm missing, other than
that
> > > Egwene's AS have to win, because if they didn't the Reds would still
be in
> > > power but obsolete with the Taint gone?
> >
> > ObTVShow: You _are_ the weakest link. Good-bye.
> >
> > Some numbers can be compensated by the large number (ca. 300) of AS at
> > large. We know little of the composition of that group.
>
> That's not quite true.
>
> We know there are very few, if any, Reds or Blues in that group, and not
> that many Greens (for the most part, among the rebels) or Whites (for
> the most part, with Elaida).
It seems to me that we _think_ that, not _know_ that. It seems reasonable
that most Reds will be in the Tower, but probably not every single one of
them. Blues, I'm not so sure about. Blues tend to be about some kind of
business or another and might take their time about deciding whether to
abandon that. Moiraine would have stayed where she was. There's about 300
undecided and they are not all Yellow and Brown.
> We know there are no Sitters in that group (which means that one of the
> pre-coup Blue Sitters is dead).
>
> We know that a substantial group of them are allied with Cadsuane.
There are probably some AS in exile, some retired or thought retired or
dead. A few are damane. A "dozen" is with Borderlander monarchs, some with
Cadsuane, a few with Perrin. Some probably are dead. Some of those
"undecided" are just Black at large.
--
O.
Dave Rothgery
>
> "Dave Rothgery" <drot...@myrealbox.com> wrote
> > We know there are very few, if any, Reds or Blues in that group, and not
> > that many Greens (for the most part, among the rebels) or Whites (for
> > the most part, with Elaida).
>
> It seems to me that we _think_ that, not _know_ that.
Well, I can't figure any reasonable way of putting together ~300 sisters
with the rebels that doesn't count on almost all the Blues and at least
half of the Greens. And we know, from Min, that most Greens fled the
Tower with the Blues immediately after Siuan was deposed.
> It seems reasonable
> that most Reds will be in the Tower, but probably not every single one of
> them.
I can't see any Red, with the possible exceptions of Teslyn, Toviene,
and Pevara, who wouldn't accept Elaida as a legitimate Amyrlin. So I
suspect any Reds who are outside of Tar Valon are either out of the city
on Elaida's orders, on their way there, captured by the Seanchan, or
Black Ajah.
I can't see any Blue who would accept Elaida as a legitimate Amyrlin, or
who could fail to recognize the danger that Elaida as Amarylin poses to
global stability and the future of the Blue Ajah. So I suspect any Blues
who are outside of Egwene's camp are somwhere else on orders of Egwene
or the rebel Hall, were captured by the Seanchan, are Black Ajah, or are
dead.
> Blues, I'm not so sure about. Blues tend to be about some kind of
> business or another and might take their time about deciding whether to
> abandon that. Moiraine would have stayed where she was. There's about 300
> undecided and they are not all Yellow and Brown.
In terms of rebel-tower spectrum, I'm guessing something like...
Rebel Fence Tower
Blue 99% 1% 0
Green 60% 30% 10%
Yellow 30% 50% 20%
Brown 25% 50% 25%
Grey 20% 50% 30%
White 20% 20% 60%
Red 0 1% 99%
If that breakdown is accurate, the Green Ajah is probably the largest
Ajah among the rebels and the undecideds, because there are a lot more
Greens than anyone else except Reds.
> > We know there are no Sitters in that group (which means that one of the
> > pre-coup Blue Sitters is dead).
> >
> > We know that a substantial group of them are allied with Cadsuane.
>
> There are probably some AS in exile, some retired or thought retired or
> dead. A few are damane. A "dozen" is with Borderlander monarchs, some with
> Cadsuane, a few with Perrin. Some probably are dead. Some of those
> "undecided" are just Black at large.
Though I suspect that most of the Black sisters are in Tar Valon at this
time.
Erick N. Viorritto
Rothgery <drot...@myrealbox.com> wrote:
> Though I suspect that most of the Black sisters are in Tar Valon at this
> time.
Why? It seems pretty clear that the Black Ajah has Tar Valon pretty much
at their disposal with Alviarin so highly placed and a Forsaken sulking
about in the shadows. I'd think most of the Blacks (at least 60%) would
be working within the rebels or trying to manipulate the undecideds.
Egwene may not be ta'averen, but surely the Shadow sees her as a threat by
now.
--
Erick N. Viorritto
Dave Rothgery
At the time of the coup, there was no way to predict that the rebels
would become a serious threat anywhere nearly as quickly as they
actually did. It's only in the last month or two that some in Tar Valon
have begun to regard the rebels as a serious threat; many won't beleive
they are until they see Byrne's army beseiging Tar Valon.
Further, even with covert Black backing, Elaida's coup came very close
to failure; it seems likely that most of the Black Ajah were needed in
Tar Valon to make sure Elaida's coup succeeded, and then to ensure that
Alviarin was installed as Keeper.
And at that point, they're pretty much stranded in Tar Valon. Elaida's
orders, travel times, and the high probability of rebel informants in
Tar Valon make it nearly impossible for a Sister to join the rebels
after staying in town to raise Elaida. Slipping out to work among the
undecideds -- which aren't especially organized -- is almost as
difficult.
OTOH, by keeping the Black in Tar Valon for the most part, they
1) are mostly in one place, so Mesaana or Alviarin can use them
2) can effectively control the Tower
YngKang
>From: Dave Rothgery drot...@myrealbox.com
>Date: 4/24/01 5:36 PM Eastern Daylight Time
>Message-id: <MPG.154fbd119...@news-server.rochester.rr.com>
>
>Erick N. Viorritto <evi...@postmark.net> wrote:
>> In article <MPG.154f5824a...@news-server.rochester.rr.com>, Dave
>> Rothgery <drot...@myrealbox.com> wrote:
>>
>> > Though I suspect that most of the Black sisters are in Tar Valon at this
>> > time.
>>
>> Why? It seems pretty clear that the Black Ajah has Tar Valon pretty much
>> at their disposal with Alviarin so highly placed and a Forsaken sulking
>> about in the shadows. I'd think most of the Blacks (at least 60%) would
>> be working within the rebels or trying to manipulate the undecideds.
>> Egwene may not be ta'averen, but surely the Shadow sees her as a threat by
>> now.
>
>At the time of the coup, there was no way to predict that the rebels
>would become a serious threat anywhere nearly as quickly as they
>actually did. It's only in the last month or two that some in Tar Valon
>have begun to regard the rebels as a serious threat; many won't beleive
>they are until they see Byrne's army beseiging Tar Valon.
<snip further discussion>
This is secondary compared to all your well-thought out arguments which I have
so callously snipped, but one might want to consider Delana's (is that her
name? the gray/black sitter?) status. I'm not sure, but I don't think she's a
particularly influential sister/sitter, and I don't think she was prior to the
Tower split either. Since Aran'gar goes straight to her (we can assume) it
would suggest to me that she was the biggest, baddest BA in Salidar when, if I
recall correctly, she's not even that strong in the power. (something about
Siuan outstripping her when they were still novices) I think this implies that
there aren't too many Black sisters with the rebels.
Marc
P.S. Has anyone brought up the fact that Aran'gar went to Delana and not
Sheriam as evidence that Sheriam is not BA?
SteveBob
"Dave Rothgery" <drot...@myrealbox.com> wrote in message
news:MPG.154fbd119...@news-server.rochester.rr.com...
> (snip quoting)
> (snip beginning of response)
> Further, even with covert Black backing, Elaida's coup came very close
> to failure; it seems likely that most of the Black Ajah were needed in
> Tar Valon to make sure Elaida's coup succeeded, and then to ensure that
> Alviarin was installed as Keeper.
>
Has anyone offered a satisfactory explanation as to why Gawyn supported
Elaida's coup?
If we accept the notion of intervention by the Black Ajah, is it possible
that Gawyn was under
Compulsion (ala Liandrin)?
IIRC, Gawyn makes some statement at the time along the lines that even the
Amyrlin has to
live by the rules, with the implication that Siuan was deposed legitimately.
Later, of course, we
find out that it wasn't legitimate at all; the mob was a Blue Sitter shy of
a quorum.
Gawyn is nobody's fool, and he dislikes Elaida. I have puzzled over his
actions without ever
reaching a conclusion. Use of Compulsion by one of the Black Sisters seems
plausible, however.
(snip remainder)
Regards,
Steve
Oleg Ozerov
"Dave Rothgery" <drot...@myrealbox.com> wrote
> > > We know there are very few, if any, Reds or Blues in that group, and
not
> > > that many Greens (for the most part, among the rebels) or Whites (for
> > > the most part, with Elaida).
> >
> > It seems to me that we _think_ that, not _know_ that.
>
> Well, I can't figure any reasonable way of putting together ~300 sisters
> with the rebels that doesn't count on almost all the Blues and at least
> half of the Greens. And we know, from Min, that most Greens fled the
> Tower with the Blues immediately after Siuan was deposed.
Well, true. Blue is the smallest, iirc. So Blue is 100 sisters tops,
probably fewer than that.
>
> > It seems reasonable
> > that most Reds will be in the Tower, but probably not every single one
of
> > them.
>
> I can't see any Red, with the possible exceptions of Teslyn, Toviene,
> and Pevara, who wouldn't accept Elaida as a legitimate Amyrlin. So I
> suspect any Reds who are outside of Tar Valon are either out of the city
> on Elaida's orders,
Most of those tend not to return, I'd like to add.
on their way there, captured by the Seanchan, or
> Black Ajah.
We have to consider also that of the estimated original 300 after the coup,
13 of those who went to get Rand are indisposed, and those who went to the
Black Tower (how many were they, 20? 30? 40?) are, too. That's a
considerable portion out of 300.
[...]
> > Blues, I'm not so sure about. Blues tend to be about some kind of
> > business or another and might take their time about deciding whether to
> > abandon that. Moiraine would have stayed where she was. There's about
300
> > undecided and they are not all Yellow and Brown.
>
> In terms of rebel-tower spectrum, I'm guessing something like...
>
> Rebel Fence Tower
> Blue 99% 1% 0
> Green 60% 30% 10%
> Yellow 30% 50% 20%
> Brown 25% 50% 25%
> Grey 20% 50% 30%
> White 20% 20% 60%
> Red 0 1% 99%
>
> If that breakdown is accurate, the Green Ajah is probably the largest
> Ajah among the rebels and the undecideds, because there are a lot more
> Greens than anyone else except Reds.
That breakdown seems right, I wouldn't put 99% maybe 95, but that doesn't
make much difference.
In truth since the coup, it's not truly 300/300/300 division. Many small
special groups have formed that take up a considerable number out of each
three big ones. It is probably closer to 250/250/250 or something like that.
> > > We know there are no Sitters in that group (which means that one of
the
> > > pre-coup Blue Sitters is dead).
> > >
> > > We know that a substantial group of them are allied with Cadsuane.
> >
> > There are probably some AS in exile, some retired or thought retired or
> > dead. A few are damane. A "dozen" is with Borderlander monarchs, some
with
> > Cadsuane, a few with Perrin. Some probably are dead. Some of those
> > "undecided" are just Black at large.
>
> Though I suspect that most of the Black sisters are in Tar Valon at this
> time.
Not Liandrin and Co. Not Galina or Delana, either.
--
O.
Dave Rothgery
>
> "Dave Rothgery" <drot...@myrealbox.com> wrote
> > Oleg Ozerov <Ozzypti...@worldnet.att.net> wrote:
> > > "Dave Rothgery" <drot...@myrealbox.com> wrote
>
> 13 of those who went to get Rand are indisposed, and those who went to the
> Black Tower (how many were they, 20? 30? 40?) are, too. That's a
> considerable portion out of 300.
For the TAS embassy, 39 went after Rand. Of those, 23 were captured by
Rand (some have since sworn to Rand), 3 died, 1 was captured by Sevaana,
and 12 returned to Tar Valon.
Toviene's expedition to the Black Tower had 51 sisters. Presumably they
were all captured by the Asha'man, though it's concievable that a few
escaped.
Between the two, a little less than a quarter of Elaida's supporters
(see below) are unavailable to her and unlikely to return.
> In truth since the coup, it's not truly 300/300/300 division. Many small
> special groups have formed that take up a considerable number out of each
> three big ones. It is probably closer to 250/250/250 or something like that.
I seem to recall Egwene recieving a report that there were ~320 sisters
in Tar Valon, and noting that she only had a few more than that allied
with her. Though those numbers almost certainly include those who left
either group on official business.
> > Though I suspect that most of the Black sisters are in Tar Valon at this
> > time.
>
> Not Liandrin and Co. Not Galina or Delana, either.
I said most, not all, or even an overwhelming majority.
Brent Hollett
<stephen...@home.com> wrote:
<snip Regarding Blacks supporting coup>
>
>Has anyone offered a satisfactory explanation as to why Gawyn supported
>Elaida's coup?
>If we accept the notion of intervention by the Black Ajah, is it possible
>that Gawyn was under
>Compulsion (ala Liandrin)?
>
>IIRC, Gawyn makes some statement at the time along the lines that even the
>Amyrlin has to
>live by the rules, with the implication that Siuan was deposed legitimately.
>Later, of course, we
>find out that it wasn't legitimate at all; the mob was a Blue Sitter shy of
>a quorum.
>
>Gawyn is nobody's fool, and he dislikes Elaida. I have puzzled over his
>actions without ever
>reaching a conclusion. Use of Compulsion by one of the Black Sisters seems
>plausible, however.
>
<snip>
I believe he makes mention that since Egwene and Elayne both want to
be Aes Sedai, then he is there to see that the Tower stays strong and
able to grant them that wish. He doesn't like Siuan's actions as he
sees them as destructive. IIRC he is at great qualms about possibly
running off with Egwene later in Carhien but is opposed to Rand. He
still doesn't know that Egwene is the rebel Amyrlin, therefore he is
still with the Aes Sedai to ensure that Egwene can return to the tower
safely.
My wonder is what happens in Book 10 when he looks out over the walls
and sees Egwene leading.
BTW is he back in the Tower now, I don't remember text anywhere about
him after regrouping from Dumai's Wells. He gathers the Younglings
but I don't remember what happened afterward. Was he with the Sisters
who returned to the Tower?
Brent Hollett
E-mail: per...@techie.com
ICQ: 4736279
Aurelien
>
[snip beginning]
> Gawyn is nobody's fool, and he dislikes Elaida. I have puzzled over his
> actions without ever
> reaching a conclusion. Use of Compulsion by one of the Black Sisters seems
> plausible, however.
>
I think nobody besides the Forsaken know how to use Compulsion. It's one
of the lost Talents, and no wilder has rediscovered it fully (remember
the difference between Liandrin's "trick" and Moghedien's Talent). So it
is probable that no BA knows it. If anyone has used Compulsion on Gawyn,
it has to be one of the Forsaken (Meesana?).
Cheers
A>
Dave Rothgery
Well, there's also Verin's puzzled-together weave. And Liandrin's crew
seem to have been, well, less than impressive compared to others in the
Black Ajah.
Aurelien
>
> Aurelien <th...@iap.fr> wrote:
[snip Gawyn being subject to Compulsion]
> >
> > I think nobody besides the Forsaken know how to use Compulsion. It's one
> > of the lost Talents, and no wilder has rediscovered it fully (remember
> > the difference between Liandrin's "trick" and Moghedien's Talent). So it
> > is probable that no BA knows it. If anyone has used Compulsion on Gawyn,
> > it has to be one of the Forsaken (Meesana?).
>
> Well, there's also Verin's puzzled-together weave. And Liandrin's crew
> seem to have been, well, less than impressive compared to others in the
> Black Ajah.
>
Right. But even Verin's auto-discovered weaves are not at the real
Compulsion level. If it goes against really strong beliefs, it can not
last very long. And Gawyn's long-support to Elaida (and his hatred of
Rand), even after having been tell that Elayne loves Rand, seems
indicate a deeper Compulsion... But that's just an opinion.
Cheers,
A>
Christine Dewar
SteveBob <stephen...@home.com> wrote in message
news:iRtF6.55627$xN4.4...@news1.sttls1.wa.home.com...
>
> "Dave Rothgery" <drot...@myrealbox.com> wrote in message
> news:MPG.154fbd119...@news-server.rochester.rr.com...
>
> > (snip quoting)
>
> > (snip beginning of response)
>
> > Further, even with covert Black backing, Elaida's coup came very close
> > to failure; it seems likely that most of the Black Ajah were needed in
> > Tar Valon to make sure Elaida's coup succeeded, and then to ensure that
> > Alviarin was installed as Keeper.
> >
>
> Has anyone offered a satisfactory explanation as to why Gawyn supported
> Elaida's coup?
> If we accept the notion of intervention by the Black Ajah, is it possible
> that Gawyn was under
> Compulsion (ala Liandrin)?
>
> IIRC, Gawyn makes some statement at the time along the lines that even the
> Amyrlin has to
> live by the rules, with the implication that Siuan was deposed
legitimately.
> Later, of course, we
> find out that it wasn't legitimate at all; the mob was a Blue Sitter shy
of
> a quorum.
<Snip rest>
I cannot remember whether I read it in a glossary or in the Guide, but a
member of the Ajah from which the Amyrlin was raised s not required to
depose an Amyrlin. Traditionally that ajah is not included under the
assumption they would never stand for removing an Amyrlin raised from their
own Ajah.
Nightman
> I cannot remember whether I read it in a glossary or in the Guide, but a
> member of the Ajah from which the Amyrlin was raised s not required to
> depose an Amyrlin. Traditionally that ajah is not included under the
> assumption they would never stand for removing an Amyrlin raised from their
> own Ajah.
I'm quite sure you're correct. The thing that always puzzled me was the
massacre of the Blues in the tower. Once Siuan was deposed, Elaida set
out to simply wipe out an entire Ajah! That can't possibly have been
lawful! (Maybe if they had incontrovertible proof that the Blue Ajah WAS
the Black Ajah, but no such accusation was even made, the pogrom was
just because they were Siuan's people.) I can't believe more people
didn't rebel against Elaida just for that. (And I think it might be the
reason so many yellows did go against her.)
Night
Mark Leigh
>
> "Mark Leigh" <mle...@nerp.net> wrote
> > On Mon, 23 Apr 2001, Oleg Ozerov wrote:
> > > "Mark Leigh" <mle...@nerp.net> wrote
> > > > On Wed, 18 Apr 2001, Dave Rothgery wrote:
> > >
> > > > It seems amusing that, if these numbers are right, there are 1.5 times
> as
> > > > many Reds in the White Tower as all the other Ajahs combined. Are
> there
> > > > any implications leaping out from this that I'm missing, other than
> that
> > > > Egwene's AS have to win, because if they didn't the Reds would still
> be in
> > > > power but obsolete with the Taint gone?
> > >
> > > ObTVShow: You _are_ the weakest link. Good-bye.
> >
> > My, you're a wit, aren't you?
>
> I meant the Red Ajah, not you, although I'm not sure that you misunderstood,
> just in case.
In fact, I completely misunderstood. Sorry about that. But you were
awfully vague.
> > > Some numbers can be compensated by the large number (ca. 300) of AS at
> > > large. We know little of the composition of that group.
> >
> > This is true, but how many Reds do you suppose are fence-sitting?
>
> Somehow I think that some are. Probably a fairly small number but how small
> we don't know. Besides, Red is the largest Ajah.
Still, if we assume there are 30 Reds either missing or fence-sitting,
that still makes half the AS in the Tower right now Reds. I can't imagine
that such a homogeneity of skills will help out the Tower AS, not to
mention that everyone there hates each other now anyway.
Mark Leigh
It could be that she wanted to influence a Sitter specifically, rather
than the Keeper. For instance, controlling a Senator might be more
worthwhile than controlling the Vice President.
YngKang
>Date: 4/25/01 4:36 PM Eastern Daylight Time
>Message-id: <3AE7353B...@provide.net>
>
The thing that always puzzled me was the
>massacre of the Blues in the tower. Once Siuan was deposed, Elaida set
>out to simply wipe out an entire Ajah! That can't possibly have been
>lawful! (Maybe if they had incontrovertible proof that the Blue Ajah WAS
>the Black Ajah, but no such accusation was even made, the pogrom was
>just because they were Siuan's people.) I can't believe more people
>didn't rebel against Elaida just for that. (And I think it might be the
>reason so many yellows did go against her.)
>
Is that how it happened? I always thought that the blues rose up in revolt
against Elaida, and Elaida came down hard. I can't see Elaida just ordering
the massacre of an entire ajah.
Not because she's a particularly nice person, you understand. Just because it
is unlawful, I'm sure, and wouldn't look to good on the ol' resume.
Marc
YngKang
>Date: 4/25/01 5:29 PM Eastern Daylight Time
>Message-id: <Pine.LNX.4.33.0104251628160.23188-100000@chef>
Controlling both would probably be better still, and I'm sure Halima could
manage that if Sheriam were BA. All she'd have to do is show up, say she was
Chosen, and then tell her that if she needed her, she'd be back.
Which I suppose she could have done off screen... But then, Sheriam would have
a pretty powerful ally, and whoever was beating her, woudln't be doing so for
long...
Marc
Robert Mee
"YngKang" <yng...@aol.com> wrote in message
news:20010425225039...@ng-fx1.aol.com...
Unless, of course, it is the Chosen who is beating her. Remember Sammy in
Ebou Dar with Carradin and Mili Skane? (At least I think it was Ebou
Dar.... I only have WH with me at school. Sorry for no references!)
Rob
Oleg Ozerov
I was shooting for the "obsolete - weakest link" connection.
> > Somehow I think that some are. Probably a fairly small number but how
small
> > we don't know. Besides, Red is the largest Ajah.
>
> Still, if we assume there are 30 Reds either missing or fence-sitting,
> that still makes half the AS in the Tower right now Reds. I can't imagine
> that such a homogeneity of skills will help out the Tower AS, not to
> mention that everyone there hates each other now anyway.
Thirty may be more than what I was thinking of.
--
O.
Oleg Ozerov
"Mark Leigh" <mle...@nerp.net> wrote
Of course, Halima may indeed have gone to Sheriam, too. RJ may have chosen
not to tell us that. Wouldn't be the first, you know.
--
O.
SteveBob
"Aurelien" <th...@iap.fr> wrote in message news:3AE6D4EB...@iap.fr...
> Dave Rothgery wrote:
> >
> > [snip quoting]
>
> Right. But even Verin's auto-discovered weaves are not at the real
> Compulsion level. If it goes against really strong beliefs, it can not
> last very long. And Gawyn's long-support to Elaida (and his hatred of
> Rand), even after having been tell that Elayne loves Rand, seems
> indicate a deeper Compulsion... But that's just an opinion.
>
You may be onto something there. Gawyn ostensibly believes that Rand killed
his
Mother, Morgase. Taken at face value, that is certainly a plausible reason
for Gawyn's
desire to kill Rand, but I always thought it seemed contrived.
IIRC, Gawyn appeared to jump to the conclusion that Rand was responsible for
Morgase's
(supposed) death. But this sort of leap, and indeed Gawyn's current dislike
of Rand (in
contrast to his feelings toward Rand at their first meeting), seems to me to
run counter
to Gawyn's core personality.
A deep Compulsion, of the sort Moggy used on Ny and Elayne in Tarabon, where
they
had no conscious memory of her action, would seem an apt explanation for
Gawyn's
attitude and actions.
Regards,
Steve
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
"RAFO"
Read what? Tea leaves? I already read all the damn books!
Brent Hollett
I still want to know where her warder is...
Perhaps he's the one being held so that she's co-operative.
Neil Anderson
> Oleg Ozerov <Ozzypti...@worldnet.att.net> wrote:
> >
> > "Dave Rothgery" <drot...@myrealbox.com> wrote
> > > Oleg Ozerov <Ozzypti...@worldnet.att.net> wrote:
> > > > "Dave Rothgery" <drot...@myrealbox.com> wrote
> >
> > Black Tower (how many were they, 20? 30? 40?) are, too. That's a
> > considerable portion out of 300.
>
> For the TAS embassy, 39 went after Rand. Of those, 23 were captured by
> Rand (some have since sworn to Rand), 3 died, 1 was captured by Sevaana,
> and 12 returned to Tar Valon.
>
with the exception of Katerine Alruddin who escaped/was rescued by
Darkfriends (Prologue of PoD).
> Toviene's expedition to the Black Tower had 51 sisters. Presumably they
> were all captured by the Asha'man, though it's concievable that a few
> escaped.
>
In the Prologue of WH, Toveine's POV confirms that all the sisters who went
against the Black Tower were captured (from memory).
<snip to end>
Neil Anderson
Mitchell Swan
YngKang wrote:
> >Dave
> >> >> Rothgery <drot...@myrealbox.com> wrote:
> >> >>
>
> >> P.S. Has anyone brought up the fact that Aran'gar went to Delana and not
> >> Sheriam as evidence that Sheriam is not BA?
> >
> >It could be that she wanted to influence a Sitter specifically, rather
> >than the Keeper. For instance, controlling a Senator might be more
> >worthwhile than controlling the Vice President.
> >
>
> Controlling both would probably be better still, and I'm sure Halima could
> manage that if Sheriam were BA. All she'd have to do is show up, say she was
> Chosen, and then tell her that if she needed her, she'd be back.
>
> Which I suppose she could have done off screen... But then, Sheriam would have
> a pretty powerful ally, and whoever was beating her, woudln't be doing so for
> long...
>
> Marc
Why go to the (possibly) least effective and least influential Sitter when you
can go directly to the "leader" (pre-Egwene=Amirlyn) of the cabal who controls
Salidar? It seems useless to even consider Delana if Sheriam is Black. Halima
could just have easily gone to Sheriam, given her the instructions and said,
"...oh, by the way, get that useless trollop Delana to help if you need her."
Sheriam knows much more info than Delana ever could, the rebels sent to spread
dissension in the Tower, for example. If Sheriam is Black (which I don't believe),
it just doesn't seem worthwhile to make Delana the point-man. Yes, yes, I know,
but point-woman sounds funny.
-Zinethar
YngKang
>Date: 4/25/01 10:58 PM Eastern Daylight Time
>Message-id: <9c82ro$3...@portal.gmu.edu
Well, at one point Sheriam thinks that she should never have talked to a sister
in the hall. I think it's actually at the end of the beating scene. Which
could be a reference to Delana, I suppose, and thus Arangar.
But I've always assumed that Elaida had spies among the sitters. Notice how
few of them stand to declare war on the White Tower. Just enough to get it
passed, actually. Egwene even thinks something like, 'Siuan had been sure it
woudl be more than this!'
Plus, when you take into account the fact that Sheriam has been purposefully
neglecting her duties, handing them over to Siuan, it seems to make sense that
she's being blackmailed by one of these spies.
(Assuming they exist.) And that she is aware that her information is going
straight to Elaida.
What I want to know is: Has anyone given any thought to what exactly she said
that got her in such deep trouble? I imagine it would have to be something
horrible for her to not want to confess it, and reveal the spy.
Marc
Myranya
wrote:
<snip>
I asked what happened to her Warder at Elf Fantasy, and got a RAFO, as
I'd pretty much expected, but I had to try :) I asked "I know this is
probably going to be a RAFO, but I really wonder if you forgot about
him." RJ did laugh and almost seemed to hesitate as he answered, but I
don't know if that meant that he did forget about that one small
appearance in tFoH when he wrote the PoD scene, or maybe it was
because I admitted I kinda expected RAFO, or what..
Your theory is a good one, too! It'd explain Arinvar's absence and
Sheriam's cooperation.
There is one thing I learned from RJ's tour in the Netherlands. I
never believed Sheriam was a Black by choice, but I used to consider
her being turned to the Shadow as a valid option. Perhaps that would
leave her not completely willing to find out as much as she could
(letting Siuan do a lot of the work). Also, since she was the one who
told Egwene about the turning being possible, she would be a prime
candidate plot-wise. Yet one question asked at an online chat held
while he was here:
>[Punisher> Have you ever thought about reinstituting some of the old
>ideas from earlier books? For example, in "The Dragon Reborn" you had
>a situation with thirteen dark sisters and thirteen Myrdral to
>forceably convert someone to the darker side of things. It seems you
>have abandoned that. Do you think you might have something like that
>pop up again at some unexpected moment? It doesn't seem realistic for
>the black ajah to abandon the idea
>[@R-JORDAN> I have not abandoned this notion about a circle of 13 AS
>and 13 Myrddraal can convert someone to the Shadow. It is not an easy
>situation to set up, in fact its a very difficult situation to set up.
>It has to be worth the effort, you don't go to all of this effort to
>just convert anyone. In fact it might be better for your plans to
>manipulate someone against their will than as a willing ally.
Unless RJ is *really* trying to throw us off (which is possible
::grin::), this means that he hasn't used it yet, not turning anyone
'off-screen'. For now, I'm convinced Sheriam isn't a Black at all
-voluntary or involuntary. :)
Myranya.
myr...@knoware.nl | http://www.knoware.nl/users/myranya
--
I get paid to use the internet!
http://www.getpaid4.com/?myranya | http://www.processtree.com/?sponsor=11096
http://www.cashfiesta.com/php/join.php?ref=myranyaw
lots more at: http://www.knoware.nl/users/myranya/money.html
Richard M. Boye'
I mispelled it because it's not the real deal.
Remember, Verin's use of Kompulsion is more than her inadvertant
wilder's trick. She has purposefully ferreted out all that she can by
honing on those novices like Liandrin who -did- manifest the
"suggestiveness" trick, and studying them. She's been studying it for
over a century.
--
Richard M. Boye' * wa...@webspan.net
http://www.webspan.net/~waldo/ UIN:9021244
"Some men lead lives of quiet desperation.
My desperation makes a pathetic whining sound."
Aurelien
>
> Aurelien wrote:
> >
> > >
> >
> > Right. But even Verin's auto-discovered weaves are not at the real
> > Compulsion level. If it goes against really strong beliefs, it can not
> > last very long. And Gawyn's long-support to Elaida (and his hatred of
> > Rand), even after having been tell that Elayne loves Rand, seems
> > indicate a deeper Compulsion... But that's just an opinion.
>
> I mispelled it because it's not the real deal.
>
> Remember, Verin's use of Kompulsion is more than her inadvertant
> wilder's trick. She has purposefully ferreted out all that she can by
> honing on those novices like Liandrin who -did- manifest the
> "suggestiveness" trick, and studying them. She's been studying it for
> over a century.
>
Still, it is not as effective as real Compulsion, when comparing to,
say, Rahvin's or Moggy's abilities (not even speaking of Graendal's).
A>
Douglas J Ross
Hollett på per...@techie.com den 01-04-25 14.06:
> On Wed, 25 Apr 2001 06:08:14 GMT, "SteveBob"
> <stephen...@home.com> wrote:
>
> <snip Regarding Blacks supporting coup>
>>
>> Has anyone offered a satisfactory explanation as to why Gawyn supported
>> Elaida's coup?
>> If we accept the notion of intervention by the Black Ajah, is it possible
>> that Gawyn was under
>> Compulsion (ala Liandrin)?
>>
>> IIRC, Gawyn makes some statement at the time along the lines that even the
>> Amyrlin has to
>> live by the rules, with the implication that Siuan was deposed legitimately.
>> Later, of course, we
>> find out that it wasn't legitimate at all; the mob was a Blue Sitter shy of
>> a quorum.
>>
>> Gawyn is nobody's fool, and he dislikes Elaida. I have puzzled over his
>> actions without ever
>> reaching a conclusion. Use of Compulsion by one of the Black Sisters seems
>> plausible, however.
Forget compulsion or anything underhanded. The men of Caemlyn have a strong
sense of duty and going by the book. Gawyn is still young and
inexperienced(well at the time Siuan was stilled). He because of his
mothers alliance with the tower and his sisters potential to be an AS, is
blinded by the possibility that AS could behave criminally, petty or like
anyone else(we commoners so to speak). He was brought up to accept these
things.
Another aspect to consider relating to going by the book is that he has had
a military education, which means that questioning authority isn't done.
Add to it his ethos of right and wrong, and you have one
focused(tunnelvision) individual. Only Rand's brother Galad is worse in his
focus on what is right and wrong. Joining with a zealous
institution(Whitecloaks) to maintain his chosen ethos.
Gawyn also isn't privey to the internal machinations of the White Tower, and
therefore can only rely on heresay which considering his background and
education would discount by half either way to find balance in what he has
heard.