On Tue, 22 May 2012 01:17:20,
se...@panix.com (Seth) wrote:
>David Loewe, Jr. <
dlo...@mindspring.com> wrote:
>
>>Keith's supposition flat out ignores the fact that most people are not
>>living on the ragged edge and can make adjustments that would prevent
>>them from losing their housing.
>
>Nope; Keith's supposition is that *some* people _are_ living on the
>ragged edge.
Keith's supposition is that more than one person (he says "a few") is
living on the ragged edge.
>A continuity argument might help.
>
>If real estate taxes quadrupled, would that make a number of people
>homeless? If yes, consider: let real estate taxes increase by $1. Is
>anybody made homeless? What about $2? $3? If "one measly little
>extra dollar" can't make somebody homeless, then when my macro
>finishes running a billion dollars from now, still nobody is made
>homeless?
I have explicitly stated that a sufficiently large increase will make
one (or more) people homeless. However, I do *not* believe a
sufficiently *small* one will either - and Keith said that "every"
increase makes "a few" people homeless.
The "at risk" people will, almost to a person, be living in apartments.
I have demonstrated that the proposed library tax increase is too small
to be passed on (pennies per apartment per month) in rent [1]. I have
demonstrated that the same proposed tax increase is too small to be
passed on by businesses. They are thoroughly isolated from the effects
of the increase.
That leaves home owners. Their assessed valuation is likely to have
dropped recently due to the bursting of the housing bubble, so they
could very well be paying for less in property tax than they did just a
few years ago. Almost all of them are paying mortgages, such that, if
the property tax does put them out of house, they are almost certainly
going to be able to get into a rental house or an apartment - so while
massively inconvenienced, not homeless.
You're down, for all intents and purposes, to those elderly who own
their own homes free and clear, who are living on the ragged edge, who
cannot get into an apartment [2], who cannot work any amount (part-time
- one or two days a week, say) in order to pay the higher tax, who have
no family to take them in or help out [3] and who haven't already been
put into homelessness (or at least out of their houses) by the inflation
in food and energy prices (neither of which are in the Core CPI [4])[5].
[1] And if the landlord does increase the rent, then other factors
swamped the property tax one (aka the landlord is making an excuse).
[2] There is aid to get people into housing. I received aid (from
Catholic Charities - deposit & first month's rent) to get me into this
apartment when my old apartment was found to have a non-correctable code
violation two years ago.
[3] I'm sure my father and uncles would have paid my grandmother's
property tax if that had become an issue for her.
[4] And the food inflation is killing my budget.
[5] And, I'm sure, a few other factors that I can't think of off the top
of my head.
--
"Why do we never get an answer
When we're knocking at the door
With a thousand million questions
About hate and death and war?"
David J. Hayward