Look at the shelf right after 2000, that's when it stagnated for 2 years
following 9/11.
>
>>> either increasing taxes on everyone or cutting spending across the
>>> board, and even then we couldn't have significantly reduced the
>>> outstanding debt between 2001 and 2008, let alone put ourselves in a
>>> position to more easily afford massive increases in spending.
>>
>> The major factors that impacted the budget in Bush IIs reign:
>
> ...were the Republicans' refusal to rein in spending, the Republicans'
> refusal to rein in spending, and the Republicans' refusal to rein in
> spending.
It wasn't that they didn't "rein in" existing spending, it was that they
BOTH spent more (year after year), and cut taxes. They did do both of
those you know. You can't pretend that the tax cuts didn't happen.
>> 1) 2 unfunded wars
>> 2) Tax cuts
>> 3) Spiraling increases in medical costs, which affected government
>> payments for those on government funded medical plans (government
>> employees, medicare, etc.)
>> 4) Economy decline following 9/11 as a result of business worry about
>> the state of the country.
>
> See the chart above. There was no significant decline in GDP following
> the 9/11 attacks.
You must be blind. There's a clear "shelf" where the economy did not
grow for 2 years.
>> Bush had complete control over 1 and 2,
>
> Of course he did. Congress
Which was a Republican Congress, which rubber-stamped anything Bush II
wanted. All 3 parts were in Republican control, they can't blame anyone
else for what they did.
> never passed a joint resolution on 14
> September 2001 authorizing Li'l W "to use all necessary and appropriate
> force against those nations, organizations, or persons he determines
> planned, authorized, committed, or aided the terrorist attacks that
> occurred on September 11, 2001, or harbored such organizations or
> persons," and Congress certainly never passed a joint resolution on 11
> October 2002 which authorized Li'l W "to use the Armed Forces of the
> United States as he determines to be necessary and appropriate in order
> to--(1) defend the national security of the United States against the
> continuing threat posed by Iraq; and (2) enforce all relevant United
> Nations Security Council resolutions regarding Iraq." Nope! That never
> happened.
It all happened after Bush manipulated his people LIE TO CONGRESS about
WMDs, using "data" that was clearly known at the time (and later proven
to be false) to be completely unsubstantiated.
http://www.lowellsun.com/ci_20812259/colin-powells-revision-wmd-history?source=most_emailed
Bush should have been impeached for this, but the Dems didn't want to
see Cheney as President, so they didn't push for impeachment. But they
had a pretty strong case:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeach_Bush
Certainly this was a much stronger case than the case against Clinton.
> Nor did both houses of Congress pass the Economic Growth and Tax Relief
> Reconciliation Act of 2001 or the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief
> Reconciliation Act of 2003. Nope! Li'l W had complete control. He just
> waved his magic wand and said "Demitto taxationus!"
All Republicans, rubber stamping their president's agenda.
>> and he did nothing about 3.
>
> The 2003 Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act
> may have been a disaster, but I wouldn't call it "doing nothing."
It didn't solve the problem.
We are the only "first world" country that doesn't have universal health
care for all. There are countries that are a lot "poorer" than the US
who make sure that everyone in their country gets good health care, and
they manage to do it for far less cost per capita than we spend. Our
current health care practices are not sustainable. The industry is
setup to keep charging us more for medications, more for tests, than
they charge anyone else in any other country. We NEED a universal
health care system to rein in these costs. If we don't do this,
eventually only the really wealthy (who can afford spiraling health care
costs) will get health care. The retired will be given "vouchers" to
buy medical insurance, but the vouchers won't cover the cost. Need long
term nursing home care? None but the very rich will be able to afford
it. The poor will get medicare but it will end up rationed in such a
way that most expensive services will be delayed until you are too
sick/dying to qualify for the treatment.
>> The economy is stimulated when middle-class people have money to
>> spend. Without middle class buyers, businesses will not create new
>> jobs.
>
> Because U.S. businesses only sell goods to middle-class U.S. residents?
> I guess that explains why the GDP increased in real dollars during every
> year of Bush's administration right up until the housing bubble burst.
> Oh, wait, it doesn't explain any such thing.
Because the middle class does the majority of the discretionary buying.
If they don't buy, there's no demand, the economy stagnates.
The rich are such a small group (in numbers) that their buying patterns
don't move the economy.
The poor don't have much discretionary spending. They spend what they
earn, month in and month out. They don't have much opportunity to save
or borrow.
Only the middle class can (substantially) change the economy by spending
from savings or borrowing to spend more than they earn, or spending more
on discretionary things when they make more (in a booming economy, when
businesses give out raises and bonuses, when businesses can pay for
expense trips, etc.).
>
>
http://www.data360.org/dataset.aspx?Data_Set_Id=354
>
>>>> But instead we had been digging ourselves ever deeper into debt with
>>>> "2 unfunded wars and a massive tax cut",
>>>
>>> Nope. According to the Office of Management and Budget, federal
>>> revenue from individual income tax receipts was higher between 2006
>>> and 2008 than it had been at any previous time in U.S. history:
>>> revenue from corporate tax receipts hit an unprecedented $278.2
>>> billion in 2005 and peaked in 2007 at $370.2 billion. (Individual
>>> income tax receipts that year totaled $1.16 trillion.)
>>
>> How does it track on a per capita basis? And is that adjusted for
>> inflation? Can you cite your sources so I can review the data?
>
>
http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals
So you haven't adjusted for inflation, and you haven't corrected to
account for per capita, you aren't comparing the budget to the country's
productivity (DGP). You are just using raw numbers which will ALWAYS
show the budget going up and up (because of inflation, because of
increases in population).
There are 3 kinds of lies: Lies, damn lies, and statistics. This is
the 3rd kind of lie - mis-applied statistics. For the historical budget
numbers to have any value in a discussion you must either correct for
inflation or show the budget amount as a percent of GDP or per capita.
The modern approach is to show the budget as a percent of GDP. As GDP
goes up, tax revenues go up, population requesting services goes up, it
makes sense federal spending goes up. It would be insane to expect the
budget to remain at a fixed level when GDP goes up and up and up.
Let me know when you have useful figures to discuss.
>>> The problem wasn't the tax cuts: the problem was the across-the-board
>>> spending increases. Federal outlays during the Bush administration
>>> increased by 70% over outlays during the Clinton administration. Even
>>> without the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, federal spending was
>>> absurdly out of control.
>>
>> But but but... it was a Republican President, Republican Congress.
>
> Yes! You're starting to catch on!
>
>>> For example: according to the Department of Education's own figures,
>>> it received $38.4 billion in appropriations during the last year of
>>> Clinton's administration. In the first year of Bush's administration,
>>> it received $42 billion, and the appropriations only got bigger after
>>> that: in 2006 the Department received $100 billion!
>>>
>>> (See
http://www2.ed.gov/about/overview/budget/history/edhistory.pdf)
>>
>> You might want to review:
>>
>>
http://www.deathandtaxesposter.com/
>>
>> to get a better sense of where the money is being spent. The money
>> spent on non-military, non-social-security, non-medicare is a small
>> fraction of the total federal budget.
>
> Wow! Really? No kidding.
>
>> Yes, these other items have budgets which grew and grew, but slashing
>> their budgets won't fix the deficit/debt problem, and as you slash
>> budgets you put people OUT OF WORK.
>
> Caps Lock makes it true!
Are you seriously trying to say that if the federal government slashes
their budgets that somehow this *won't* put people out of work?
>> Remember, we are supposed to be creating jobs?
>
> Creating more *federal government* jobs is not going to help the
> economy, you silly person. You do realize that even though federal
> employees pay income tax, the fact that their income comes from the
> federal government results in a net decrease in governmental revenues,
> right?
You don't understand economics very well. The problem in a recession is
that money stops moving. People hoard their money, and as they hoard
money the number of transactions (each of which generates taxes) per
capita drops, and revenues drop. If you can get money moving thru
society again, you can tax it. This is the point of stimulus spending.
You spend a dollar, the person who gets that dollar spends it, the
person they give it to also spends it, etc., etc., etc., etc. As the
dollars move thru different hands, it generates taxable events - sales
tax, payroll tax, income tax, various small taxes that accrue on
different types of products that get purchased, etc.
If you just look at the money spent on person A, and the taxes they pay,
it looks like it costs more than you take back in. But person A goes on
to spend that money with B, C, D, E and each of them pay taxes on it.
Then they go on to spend money with F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M etc...
>> There are no jobs created when you slash federal spending.
>
> So Li'l W did us all a favor by massively increasing federal spending?
> Good to know.
We didn't need to "stimulate the economy" when Bush II increased federal
spending. What he did was needlessly build up massive debt, while
lining the pockets of his friends at Haliburton, and letting the 1%
pocket record profits. It left us with little "cushion" to weather a
rainy day. When the heavens opened up during the last year of Bush II's
reign, we were left without a rainy day fund (a balanced budget).
>> We can reduce federal spending in small incremental ways (e.g.
>> freezing budgets for departments like Education) and then not
>> replacing people as folks retire and move. But that still doesn't
>> create any new jobs to put people back to work.
>
> The only jobs that create a net benefit for the government are
> private-sector jobs.
That's an opinion, a Republican talking point. Just because you hear it
repeated ad nauseum on FAUX doesn't make it true. Again, you don't
understand stimulus spending.
> Government makework jobs are a temporary measure at
> best: increasing and extending unemployment benefits would be more
> beneficial, IMO.
While I agree that helping the unemployed is important, IMHO it's MUCH
more beneficial to put the money into the hands of people who are
working. People who are working will spend money in ways different from
people who are not working. There is an important emotional factor
here. It's important that people WORK.
It's also important that people SEE the money "at work". When you drive
down the road and see road crews at work, you see people WORKING, and
you see the fruits of their labors (new freeway interchanges, widened
roadways, etc.). This is how so many Depression era public works
projects built our highways, long term investments. As people see a new
highway being built or a new building being built they SEE their money
being spent on a public good. If all the money just went to unemployed
people, nobody was put to work, nothing was being built, the mood would
be worse. It's the mood, more than anything else, that needs to be
turned around. When people feel good about the present and future, they
spend more, and that in turn stimulates the economy and pulls us out of
the dumps (emotionally and financially).
>>>> and the debt was so big that spending our way out of the recession
>>>> wasn't really possible. This is part of why the recession lingers
>>>> on.
>>>
>>> The recession was a global event.
>>
>> At the beginning of the recession, the US was the biggest economy in
>> the world. (We may have been overtaken by the Chinese, I don't know
>> if this has happened yet or is just projected to happen Real Soon
>> Now.) As such, what happens here does have a strong global effect.
>
> And what happens out there has a strong global effect, too. We're not
> the only nation that's living beyond its means, you know.
>
>
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_sovereign-debt_crisis
I know. Part of Europe's crisis comes from the slow-down in American
buying of European products and services.
>> If we get our economy moving, we buy more things including things from
>> other countries, it boosts their economies, etc.
As I said, right there.
>>> Spending our way out of it was always
>>> a pipe dream: we could have had a zero balance on the federal debt
>>> and the recession would still be lingering.
>>
>> That's an opinion that is not shared by most economists.
>
> Cite?
<
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/did-the-stimulus-work-a-review-of-the-nine-best-studies-on-the-subject/2011/08/16/gIQAThbibJ_blog.html>
>
>>>> IF, instead of "2 unfunded wars and a massive tax cut" we went into
>>>> the recession with a balanced budget, we could have then put ALL the
>>>> money that was spent on the war into stimulus projects here at home.
>>>
>>> And the recession would still be lingering, yes.
>>
>> No.
>
> Yes.
No. If we had the money to spend at home instead of lining the pockets
of Haliburton, we could have REALLY stimulated the economy, got the
wheels of finance moving again, and we would be out of the recession by now.
There was a story on NPR the other day about the generals coming to
Obama to get his OK for the Surge. Obama asked for a report on what the
Surge would cost. The report came back and said that for the same
amount of money the generals were requesting to pay for the Surge, it
would equal the cost to pay for health care for every US citizen who
doesn't presently have health insurance. So, does he OK military
spending to pay for a Surge in Afghanistan, or does he use that money
for something at home that benefits ordinary Americans?
That's the problem with unfunded wars. Republicans are OK if we borrow
to pay for war spending (which greatly benefits Haliburton and other
companies who build and subcontract for much of what we spend in
wartime), but then scream when we want to borrow and spend the money at
home. If we insisted on raising taxes to pay for the wars, especially
raising taxes on the rich (since they aren't contributing to the war
effort by having family members deployed), all those Republican hawks
would suddenly become doves and insist that we find a non-war solution.
>> Instead of lining the pockets of Haliburton, who keeps their
>> money in off-shore accounts and pays very little taxes on their
>> earnings, the money would have gone into middle-class workers, who
>> would have spent it in their local communities, stimulating their
>> local business cycles.
>
> But the money did go to middle-class workers. The nominal tax rate on
> median-income families is 15%: the effective tax rate is *5.6%*.
Cite?
> That's
> right: the average middle-class family
Now you are mixing your terms. The average middle class family is not
the same as a median income family. This is because we have a much
largeer "lower class" and smaller "upper class" so the middle of the
"middle class" is above the medium in income. No matter how you slice
it, the "upper class" group (the rich) is small, and the "lower class"
group (the poor) is large. The middle class is the group in between.
> gets to keep 94% of every dollar
> it earns. Halliburton and all the other corporate tax avoiders and
> evaders are decidely not the reason that the recession is lingering.
Just because you hear it on FAUX doesn't make it true.
If we weren't spending trillions on the war (most of the money going
into the pockets of Halliburton) we could be spending it at home, it
could be going into the pockets of millions of out-of-work Americans,
building infrastructure projects here (instead of overseas) for our use
for generations, and stimulating the local economy. It could be paying
for teachers to educate our children so we can have an educated
workforce in the future. Etc.
>>>> Instead of having to cut teacher salaries, we could have invested in
>>>> education during the economic downturn.
>>>
>>> Right, the Feds could have appropriated *more* than $100 billion for
>>> the Department of Education. After all, the No Child Left Behind
>>> boondoggle wasn't going to pay for itself.
>>
>> I'm not talking about the DoE, I'm talking about all the teachers who
>> have been laid off by budget cuts.
>
> Well, heck, why not put them to work on road crews?
Are you seriously suggesting that it's a good idea to put teachers to
work on road crews? Are you seriously suggesting that this would be
good policy, good use of our money? Are you that stupid? Maybe you
need to go back to school.
(end of part 1)
jc