Recession Randos

[GJones]

I was just looking over the Summary of Economic Projections from the
FOMC and as one might expect, things look bad and while GDP looks to
be likely to rebound by 2011, employment is projected to lag beyond
2011. In other words, while the economy will be better, a good
percentage of Randos will still be without jobs or under employed by
PBP time. While FOMC has about the same chance of getting these
projections right as I have in projecting the weather in August, in
France, in 2011… it is the probably the best projection we have.
(Hopefully better than a dartboard, but maybe not.)

In any regard, it seems reasonable at this time to project that not as
many randos will be able to afford a trip to France in 2011 as were in
2007 when the economy was still relatively healthy. The questions
that I have are

Are you taking steps to reduce the cost of riding brevets and if so,
how so?

Also, is anyone planning on running a domestic 1200 in 2011? Or is it
too early to start thinking about this kind of stuff?

[Donald Perley]

> Also, is anyone planning on running a domestic 1200 in 2011?  Or is it
> too early to start thinking about this kind of stuff?

Randonneuring is just a long ride with a lot of rules added. One of
the rules is that nobody competes with PBP. There are no other
1200k's in a PBP year.

[russell...@yahoo.com]

I'm pretty sure I saw a post on this board by the former president,
whom I can't recall at the moment, that this rule was dropped last
year or so. So in the future there can be other 1200ks in PBP years.

[Peter Mathews]

Others who were international reps at the BRM meeting held the day after
PBP will confirm I am sure, that in 2007 the rule about not "competing"
with PBP was rescinded. Nothing can compete with PBP but the motion was
originally put forward because it was felt that people from far flung
corners of the globe should not be denied the joy of riding a 1200km
brevet. The motion was first proposed in 2003.

Nothing competes with PBP!


Peter
___________________________________________
Peter Mathews
Library Planning Executive
Office of the University Librarian
Monash University Library
MONASH UNIVERSITY VIC 3800
Ph : (03) 9905 2192
Bike : 043 999 2130
Fax : (03) 9905 2610
email : peter....@lib.monash.edu.au

[Ralph Rognstad Jr.]

With regard to reducing the cost of riding brevets, I am coordinating
200K and 300K brevets in Springfield, MO, for the St. Louis RBA, so that
local randos will not have to travel for shorter brevets. I hope to do
this at least through 2011. Information on this year's brevets is
available here: http://www.rognstads.com/brevets/

[Donald Perley]

Glad to hear of the change.

[Bill Bryant]

Roger that, Peter.
At the 2007 meeting, the ACP and RM agreed that there could now be 1200k
events in a PBP year. The main concerns were that PBP was now
over-subscribed and other events might help draw off some pressure, and the
cost of travel to Europe was prohibitive for some randonneurs and a local
1200k might be more up their alley.

Nowadays, of course, the "some" will be "many", so all the more reason for a
good 1200k in North America (and elsewhere) in 2011.

Bill Bryant
Santa Cruz Randonneurs

[Randon Nerd]

I can't speak for 2010 or 2011 but I'd like to thank Tom Rosenbauer
for setting up the PA R-12 series, as well as the Endless Mountain
1000K and 1200K for 2009. His series offers an option for those of us
in the NE to be able to work on our R-12 award without needing to
drive 4 to 6 additional hours to any other of the brevets, albeit,
this year's brevets have been good preparation for Iditabike. And the
"hills" of PA are as challenging as those of BMB, the Shenandoah, the
Cascades, or the RM, let alone PBP.

THANKS Tom.

Bill

[nick.bi...@gmail.com]

At DC Randonneurs, we selected rides for the ACP series that had
closer-in ride starts. That was mainly in response to higher gas
prices, and before it became obvious that we're in a serious
recession. We left prices unchanged and think/hope we can break even,
despite uncertainty about whether prices will be higher for food and
lodging; at least gas prices came back down.

And we've also been fortunate to have a number of members design
permanents that start close to the city, which makes it easier to keep
an R-12 going.

[Randon Nerd]

Yes, in my praise to Tom for getting his series going I neglected to
mention the efforts the DC Randonneurs have done to encourage
year-round randonneuring at a affordable price. I'd like to think
that this was the "model" for the PA group. It is unfortunate to see
the "peaks" in RUSA membership and brevet ridership "only" to get in
the SR qualifiers on PBP years.

... and Bill B., although I'm fairly new to RUSA and have only done a
couple of handfulls of randonnees, I'd have to say that they are ALL
"good" and I'm looking forward to some "great" 1200K's for 2009 to
build of the ones in 2009, but then perhaps that was what you meant
with your closing statement of:

"so all the more reason for a good 1200k in North America (and
elsewhere) in 2011."

Bill

[WillemJ]

Last weekend I was at the annual Cycle Touring fair in the Amsterdam
Convention Center, giving non commercial technical information on
behalf of the Dutch Cycle Tourist Club. The recession is hitting more
slowly here in Holland, but still, it is clearly coming. Yet there
were 20 % more visitors, up to 18000 from last year's 15000. Sales
figures from both retailers and major bicycle manufacturers are also
reported to have improved from last September. The consensus seems to
be that, here at least, people are choosing bikes as a cheaper mode of
transport, and bicycle holidays as an economical alternative. That is
not to say people were looking for cheap bikes: the vast majority of
the questiosn I got were about the Rohloff hub, and similarly
expensive parts. I also had a presentation on how to go on a cycling
holiday with an existing older bike, but interest in that was minimal.
I appreciate this is not quite the same as spending money on PBP, but
still...
Willem

On 6 mrt, 12:44, Randon Nerd <randonn...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Yes, in my praise to Tom for getting his series going I neglected to
> mention the efforts the DC Randonneurs have done to encourage
> year-round randonneuring at a affordable price.  I'd like to think
> that this was the "model" for the PA group.  It is unfortunate to see
> the "peaks" in RUSA membership and brevet ridership "only" to get in
> the SR qualifiers on PBP years.
>
> ... and Bill B., although I'm fairly new to RUSA and have only done a
> couple of handfulls of randonnees, I'd have to say that they are ALL
> "good" and I'm looking forward to some "great" 1200K's for 2009 to
> build of the ones in 2009, but then perhaps that was what you meant
> with your closing statement of:
>
>  "so all the more reason for a good 1200k in North America (and
> elsewhere) in 2011."
>
> Bill
>

[Emily O'Brien]

My guess is that rando numbers won't be affected that much by a
recession of this size. As weekend excursions go, brevets can be
quite economical. Entry fees are cheap and unless you really live far
away, you don't need accommodations. Even a 600k is not too bad; the
Boston one has a $40 entry fee; add to that $20-40 spent on bike food
you bring or buy along the way, and you're up to $80 for what's
basically a weekend trip. Compare that to staying in a ski lodge and
shelling out for lift tickets, not to mention buying food. Rando
equipment is expensive compared to, say, running shoes, but it's
cheaper than any number of other things and at least it has utility
outside of brevets. It's easier to justify spending money on it if
you also use it to get to work (and it's cheaper than lots of other
ways you could get to work); and for that matter, it's easier to train
for the event if you're riding to work anyway.

I expect that the numbers at PBP will be around the same in the future
as they were in 2007 because the event has a very passionate following
and the rate of growth has been extremely high in the last few years;
but I think I heard that there is a French law prohibiting a cycling
event from having more than 5,000 participants. Furthermore, let's
say that in 2011 there are ten 1200k's in addition to PBP, and that
they have an average of 100 participants each. That's 1000 people
riding 1200k's other than PBP. I believe that the difference in
numbers between 2003 and 2007 was probably around 1500 or 2000. So if
interest in PBP grows at the same rate, and 1000 people do other
1200k's instead, there are still 500 to 1000 people who might've done
one but don't or can't.
So barring a global depression on a scale that puts half the
inhabitants of the US, UK, or EU in shanty towns ("Bushvilles"?
"Lehmanvilles?" "Wall Street"?), PBP will probably have numbers
similar to last time, even if other 1200k's are allowed in PBP years.

Emily "my bike is recession-proof because my fork isn't drilled for a
recessed brake nut" O'Brien

[Chris]

On Mar 5, 7:07 pm, nick.bike.b...@gmail.com wrote:
> At DC Randonneurs, we selected rides for the ACP series that had
> closer-in ride starts.

Have you considered using Metro to get out to a more reasonable
starting point? I lived in Alrington (Four Mile Run and Sherlington),
and bike commuted to the AOL campus in Herndon (Waxpool and Sully) via
the Washington and Old Dominion. On the occasion that I was sick, or
didn't have the time to ride the odd 23 miles one way to or from work,
I took Metro out to Vienna/Fairfax-GMU. It was nice to have as an
option, but I hardly ever used it. It seems like you could use it as a
launching vehicle if you were inclined.

Chris

[Dr Codfish]

Greg said:
"...In any regard, it seems reasonable at this time to project that

not as many randos will be able to afford a trip to France in 2011 as
were in 2007 when the economy was still relatively healthy. The
questions that I have are:
Are you taking steps to reduce the cost of riding brevets and if so,
how so?
Also, is anyone planning on running a domestic 1200 in 2011? Or is it
too early to start thinking about this kind of stuff?"

I can't say about planning a 1200K in 2011, but I do have thoughts
about reducing my costs of riding brevets:

Yes, I am much more mindful of the cost of of riding brevets now than
I have been in the past. With very few exceptions, brevets for me
start with a drive of a couple hours, sometimes more. Either to the
Seattle area, to the Vacouver BC area, or to Portland Oregon and
surrounds. In years past the biggest concern was the time this
required, money was a secondary concern. And so, because brevet
starts tend to be early morning affairs, I would often go the night
before and incur the cost of a motel and a meal, but again, money was
not so much a concern as time.

That has changed for me now. It's still the case that in most
instances I have to travel to the start, but the cost is now a much
more significant concern, it is more important than time. We've had
our own little series of economic crises here at Codfish acres since
PBP '07, but the recent economic down turn has brought budget
considerations into sharper focus.

I have consciously decided that much of my riding now starts and ends
at the garage door. This is a mixed blessing: It happens that I live
in a very scenic part of the world; rural, sparsely populated farm and
forest land with abundant country lanes that offer great riding.
Granted, the road surfaces are what you typically find in rural low-
tax-base environs; chipseal, punctuated with pot holes, bad seams, and
gravel shoulders, but the tradeoff is that the low poulation densinty
that can only afford poor road surfaces does not yield much motor
traffic. For me it's a fine trade off because I really don't care
much for urban riding. The higher traffic densities and frequent stop
signs and traffic lights are a turnoff. My inner curmudgeon grows
stronger as the years pass I guess.

The down side is that the sparse, rural population does not yield many
bike riders nor much in the way of a sympathy for the needs and
concrens of the bike riding minority. I do fine with the locals. For
the most part, the image of knuckle dragging, beer swilling country
denizens bent on running cyclists off the road in their jacked up
4X4's is an over blown myth. In fact I can't saw with confidence but I
think the risk may be equal or greater with suburban road ragers.

But the biggest downside is that there are not many opportunities to
ride with like minded folks. It is well known among those who have
ridden with me that I am deaf as a post on the bike but still, I enjoy
rding with others and do what I can to make my presence a pleasure in
return. So it''s lots of solo miles (or in the company of Mrs. C)
through splendid country. Did I get off track a bit here?

I skipped our winter training ride series. It's just hard to justify
getting in the car and driving for two hours to go for a one or two
hour ride (then drive home for two hours)... but only from a monetary
standpoint. If I was in a little better financial shape I would have
gladly done it.

I do intend to ride at least one full rando series and hopefully more
rando events. I hope to ride with at least two and maybe three rando
clubs this year. Portland and Seattle are populated with great folks
to ride with. BC puts on great rides and for some reason I have a
great affinity for that club, but it is such a long way to go that I
doubt I'll get up there this year. More is the shame because it's a
chance to experience a greater diversity, and it is also good practice
to ride in an environment that speaks and thinks in kilometers.

I didn't travel to any major rando events last year. I don't plan to
do an of that this year. It is a lot of fun to ride a 1200K in
someone elses back yard. seeing new places, meeting new people, and
meeting up with old friends from the '1200K circuit' are great
additions to the 1200K experience. This year as last, it's riding
close to home, and making a consicious effort to stick away that money
not spent on gas, motel, and meal costs in the PBP piggy bank.

Greg also mentioned fewer riders at PBP. I knew after I rode PBP in
'03 that I wanted to ride this event as many times as I could before I
find myself in a rocker on the porch at the home, dreaming not of the
future but of the past. I was quoted in a local newspaper after that
experience as saying it's the most fun you can have on a bike. I
still feel the same, and the notion that I would not be able to ride
PBP again because it was too expensive, well that just seems wrong.
I've always paid cash for my PBP extravaganza, I have a pretty strong
aversion to the concept of going into debt for frivolity, and really,
PBP is all about fun and nothing about necessity.

I'm not a wizard but I have a hard time thinking that we will be
grazing in tall clover by 2011. My little PBP nest egg is just not
growing the way it should be in order to be able to pay cash by 2011
and that has me very worried, especially when I look at what appears
to lie ahead between now and August 2011.

Occasionally I ask myself which will be my last PBP. Always in the
past I have assumed that so long as I could ride the qualifiers and
maybe a 1000K or a domestic 1200K the year before, then I'd be among
the 500 or so standing nervously inside the Gymnase waiting for our
flight's send off. More recently I have wondered if my inner Walter
Mitty might be stuck at home with a handfull of pennies as those in
better shape (financially speaking) are off on the quest for the
perfect chocolate croissant.

Yr Pal Dr Codfish

PS: Greg, what is FOMC?

[GJones]

PS: Greg, what is FOMC?

The people who think they are in control of monetary policy in this
country.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm

[Charles Lathe]

On Mar 7, 12:50 am, Emily O'Brien <emilyonwhe...@emilysdomain.org>
wrote:

> Emily "my bike is recession-proof because my fork isn't drilled for a  
> recessed brake nut" O'Brien

We had a very nice weekend -- weather wise -- in North Carolina and I
got to ride my brand new bicycle over 100+K of hilly, scenic roads,
and ride another 10 leisurely miles with Nina today, but the idea of a
recession proof fork might be the high point of the weekend. Perhaps
I should stop recessing my fork crowns for the nuts.

Regards, Chuck Lathe
Franklinville, NC

[Spencer Klaassen]

On Mar 8, 2009, at 7:58 PM, Charles Lathe wrote:

> Perhaps
> I should stop recessing my fork crowns for the nuts.
>

I sure hope you don't (at least all the time). I do understand you
had your tongue firmly in your cheek when you typed this.

Chuck (Coho Cycles) made me a great fork for my Gaansari that has a
nifty front rack attachment and light mount. It is so good that I
have been spending my days fishing with my son and then riding at
nights. I just love the light mount with that new Edelux light. If
only we had permanents set up to ride at night in the KC area (I do
know Keith "Commuter Dude" Gates is working on one).

Regards,

Spencer
St Joseph, MO

[kG]

>>I do fine with the locals. For
>>the most part, the image of knuckle dragging, beer swilling country
>>denizens bent on running cyclists off the road in their jacked up
>>4X4's is an over blown myth. In fact I can't saw with confidence but I
>>think the risk may be equal or greater with suburban road ragers.
>>But the biggest downside is that there are not many opportunities to
>>ride with like minded folks.

Couple of things hit home here, from the good doctor Codfish:
You're a lucky, lucky man: I live deep in "suburbia", and your
notions are correct. I call it the "Kill Zone". I PREFER riding in
the rural areas with the "knuckle draggers"... they are far
friendlier. As soon as the kids are grown, out of school, and out of
the house, we're packing up and moving somewhere where we can ride
from teh driveway and immediately be on a nice, quiet chip-sealed
road. That's what 32c tires are for, after all. Suburbia STINKS.
Things are getting so sprawled out around here that I have started
considering driving to my own personal training rides just to get out
of town first: the stress added at the end of every ride pretty much
destroys any enjoyment the ride itself created. That stinks, because
then it becomes more of an economic investment: driving, wear and
tear on the car, etc. Of course, so does moving out into the country
- because THEN I'm farther from everything else.
Can't win.

It's "bad enough" that I have to drive up to an hour to get to certain
brevet starts -- but, honestly, my last car purchase had a lot to do
with minimizing that expense. It's a little car, 39-40 MPG, and I can
get the bike in the trunk with the rear seats folded down --- roof
racks are expensive and create enough drag to affect the MPG I already
paid for by purchasing the car. Alas, I still commute more than I
drive: that keeps me in shape, and keeps gas-money in my pocket,
which builds up my brevet/permanent registration & food fund. The
more I commute, the more I save. Still, I'll drive to a brevet ANY
day I can, because even living in suburbia, I still have the same
problem as the Doc:

>>But the biggest downside is that there are not many opportunities to
>>ride with like minded folks.

Even in suburbia, where within a ten mile raduis there are probably
five good bike stores, and countless cyclists, sadly, very VERY few of
them consider anything longer than a 100km ride...fewer still will do
a century.... and so on. Further, very few of them are what I would
consider "strong, mentally rando-tough" riders. Few of them want to
ride when it's: too windy, too hot, too humid, too cold, too early,
too late, too dark, too cloudy: there are a LOT of complainers on
bikes in my neck of the woods. Yeah, some days are harder for me than
others, sure --- my only point is that it limits the number of people
that I get to ride with. My work schedule between two jobs, and my
life schedule between two kids; I'm amazed I get to ride at all: but
I ride when I can. If that means 4:00am on a Saturday in the rain
with a 20 MPH headwind on the way out, so be it. That puts me home at
an earlier hour, so I can get back to what's important: family. Most
around here are saddling up for a 40 miler when I'm already punched in
at my weekend job. But, no-one wants to ride that early, or that
long.... there you have it. I'm a strong solo rider, by
consequence! :)

Seriously, though, I'd *LOVE* to ride with more people, for 20 miles
or 200 miles - but even in this populous zone, that doesn't happen
much.

>>I do fine with the locals. For
>>the most part, the image of knuckle dragging, beer swilling country
>>denizens bent on running cyclists off the road in their jacked up
>>4X4's is an over blown myth. In fact I can't saw with confidence but I
>>think the risk may be equal or greater with suburban road ragers.
>>But the biggest downside is that there are not many opportunities to
>>ride with like minded folks.

And, to cap't Spencer... yeah, I'm working on it.... :)
Since most of my riding has to be done at night because of everything
else, I'm in the process of designing a "night-friendly" perm around
here. Nice roads, with the expectation that traffic will drop off
sharply after, say 9:00pm. A lot of 24-hour c-store coverage, etc.
Lights on, let's roll!

> If  
> only we had permanents set up to ride at night in the KC area (I do  
> know Keith "Commuter Dude" Gates is working on one).
>

But, yeah -- my personal recession plan for rando:

1) ride local. I've designed and had approved permanents that start
closer to my house, so I can ride towards R-12 or whatever, and not
have to travel too far. Check with your local RBA and RPC, and design
a route! I think it's every RUSA member's .... well, maybe not
responsibility.... but it's important to give our members a lot of
variety.... every RUSA member should design his/her own permanent
route, and get it approved. Make it close to home, and you can ride
for credit without having to travel too far.

2) maintain your bike! I've noticed a lot more people riding what
they rode LAST year, and the year before. Gear is expensive, and I'll
be interested to see in the next couple months as our local series
unfolds who shows up with new bikes, and such. But, to that end, keep
an eye on things - don't let anything break if you can help it. It's
always less expensive to replace it before it fails during a ride and
takes something else with it.

3) Get a 2nd job. Yeah, I know... but, hear me out: the extra cash
doesn't hurt... but here's the kicker: don't just sling pizza or
burgers: get a job at your local BIKE SHOP. The discount potential
helps tremendously with item 2 above, and you can keep your mileage
hog bike running for cheaper. Chains and bar tape at deep
discounts.... dude, seriously. Talk about helping the bottom line!!!
Plus, if you sell it right, most bike shops would love to have a rando
on-staff. You have pretty much experienced the longest, hardest rides
that anyone on a bike ever will: you can talk to ANY customer about
what works and what doesn't help with fit, etc. This can go further,
too, to grow rando in your local area -- talk the management (slowly)
into carrying more racks, generator lights (Shimano, please. Keep
Peter White in business!), Fiber-Fix spokes, etc. Invariably,
customers will ask you what kind of riding you do: put on your RUSA
ambassador hat and talk it up: more RUSA members = more riders = more
permanent routes = more people to ride your bike with = more people to
car-pool with to ride starts in other areas. "But having two jobs
will take away from my riding time!" <-- Yeah, I know... it
does...but, we gotta do what we gotta do. At the VERY LEAST, get in
really good with a friend that works at a bike shop. Buy him/her
beer. Never hurts to ask.

4) Volunteer: you may not have to ride EVERY ride your RBA offers,
as much as a lot of us want to.... you could instead offer to
volunteer, driving a route to make sure riders are safe. Manning an
after-hours control on a 600K. Paperwork, etc. Whatever you can do
to contribute to your local Rando scene can potentially keep your
local ride fees lower. You can't ask one or two guys to do it all the
time, right? Make some maps, copy cue sheets at Kinkos, pre-drive a
section of a new route and report back, etc, etc, etc. There's lots
to do -- sometimes you might get lucky and get your next 300K fee
refunded, or something nice. It gets noticed, and it helps the local
scene. Mountain bike riders have held this up for years... for every
mile of technical trail they ride, there is some guy with pick-axes
and shovels on the weekends working for HOURS to move rocks, trim
roots, fix transistions, etc. To a lesser extent this is true for
rando -- thankfully, we don't have to pave our own roads, but you get
the idea. Pay it forward, and you may get paid back.

that's all I got -- live smart, budget strong, come out ahead, and
RIDE YOUR BIKE.

[Donald Perley]

On Mon, Mar 9, 2009 at 11:02 AM, kG <commut...@gmail.com> wrote:

> It's "bad enough" that I have to drive up to an hour to get to certain
> brevet starts --

Lucky you! Mine have almost all been 4 hours, never under 3.

> scene.  Mountain bike riders have held this up for years... for every
> mile of technical trail they ride, there is some guy with pick-axes
> and shovels on the weekends working for HOURS to move rocks, trim
> roots, fix transistions, etc.

TImes I've been out on those missions, they're hauling logs ONTO the
trail to make it more "interesting"