Prediction Markets Google Group

Oddhead Blog

2010-03-21T15:18:29Z

Great blog post and links from a familiar PM Cluster sponsor. Rip the feed!

-j

IRAHSS 2010

2010-03-17T08:21:10Z

International Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning Symposium 2010
The symposium will:
(a)
promote active dialogue on risk assessment and horizon scanning concepts,
methods and technologies

[link]

Here are some closing slides from a trusted colleague.

[link]

Announcing a short course on Complexity from the Santa Fe Institute

2010-03-08T15:36:26Z

Announcing a new short course:
Exploring Complexity in Science and Technology
from a Santa Fe Institute Perspective
May 19-21, 2010
Portland, Oregon
This two-and-a-half day course is an intensive, immersive tour of the
sciences of complexity, a broad set of efforts that seek to explain
how large-scale complex, organized, and adaptive behavior can emerge

An Economist’s View

2010-03-05T23:18:04Z

An Economist’s View of the New Oscar Voting
By JUSTIN WOLFERS
Sunday’s Oscar night will be different. First, there are now ten
nominees for best picture. But perhaps more importantly, the voting
system has changed. Interested in figuring out how this changes the
Oscar game? Here’s my best attempt at explaining to the folks from

An Information Market Proposal for Regulating Systemic Risk

2010-02-18T17:09:17Z

Has anyone had a chance to look at this paper yet? I'd love to know what
people think of this proposal:
An Information Market Proposal for Regulating Systemic Risk
Matthew L. Beville
<[link]>
Florida State University - College of Law
Dino Falaschetti

Your brain on chaos...

2010-02-17T20:20:48Z

Disorderly genius: How chaos drives the brain
"Small-world networks lie somewhere between regular networks, where each
node is connected to its nearest neighbours, and random networks, which have
no regular structure but many long-distance connections between nodes at
opposite sides of the network (see diagram). Small-world networks take the

Combining Minds:

2010-02-14T22:36:19Z

Coordination and Social Sensemaking @mit 19-Feb -
[link]
-j

City Odds

2010-02-10T06:26:05Z

Hi -

Prediction Markets and the global derivatives trading market are converging.
This group brings together practitioners from both disciplines to share
ideas and opinions to see where these converging technologies could thrive.

[link]

-j

/Technology Review (02/02/10)/

2010-02-04T02:56:26Z

Boston University (BU) researchers have developed a method for studying and
identifying hubs within social networks. The approach emphasizes the
location of the individual within the network as opposed to the number of
connections. "In contrast to common belief, the most influential spreaders
in a social network do not correspond to the best connected people or the

What? Another economic policy website?

2010-02-02T16:55:40Z

Hi -

Noteworthy.

"Bob Hahn formerly director of the AEI-Brookings Joint Center for Regulatory
Studies, is now a senior fellow at the Smith School, Oxford.."

-j

[link]
We know you're drowning in stuff to read, but we think it will be worth your

IARPA RFI :: Forecasting

2010-02-02T07:43:16Z

Request for Information (RFI): Forecasting
Posted Date: 1 February 2010 Response Date: 1 March 2010
[link]
Synopsis
The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) often selects its research efforts through the Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) process. This request for information (RFI) is intended to provide information relevant to a possible future IARPA program, so that feedback from potential participants can be considered prior to the issuance of a BAA. Respondents are invited to provide comments on the content of this announcement to include suggestions for improving the scope of a possible solicitation to ensure that every effort is made to adequately address the scientific and technical challenges described below. Responses to this request may be used to support development of, and subsequently be incorporated within, a future IARPA Program BAA and therefore must be available for unrestricted public distribution. The following sections of this announcement contain details of the scope of technical efforts of interest, along with instructions for the submission of responses.

Prediction Without Markets

2010-01-25T03:49:58Z

Greetings!
Prediction Without Markets
Sharad Goel, Daniel M. Reeves, Duncan J. Watts, David M. Pennock
Yahoo! Research, 111 West 40th Street, New York, NY 10018
ABSTRACT
Citing recent successes in forecasting elections, movies, products,
and other outcomes, prediction market advocates call for widespread

PM Cluster Metrics

2010-01-22T16:11:14Z

Greetings!
Here is the periodic report on your open PM Cluster community metrics.
Overall, there is steady growth.
PM Google Group 798 members
LinkedIn PM Group 597 members
PMCluster.com 1,238 uniques, 4,871 pages
served, 92,540 requests (monthly average)

Artificial Artificial Intelligence

2010-01-21T20:57:30Z

Greetings!
Amazon’s Sharon Chiarella, Vice President, Mechanical Turk joining
sponsors of the Collective Intelligence Summit: Leading Enterprise
Social Media and Prediction Markets on 26 Feb 2010 in Seattle,
Washington USA.
[link]
Warm Regards,
Jennifer

Intrade Wants You to Find and Benefit from Arbitrage Opportunities

2010-01-19T17:20:18Z

Intrade Wants You to Find and Benefit from Arbitrage Opportunities
It is the season to hunt for risk minimizing profit opportunities on Intrade
and on and across other prediction market platforms. We would like to
incentivize you to find, highlight and remove these market anomalies.
Periodically arbitrage opportunities exist on Intrade and other prediction