Prediction is Key
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Jennifer Hulett
Nov 21, 2009, 1:48:21 PM11/21/09
to Prediction Markets
Greetings!
Enjoy this noteworthy blog from our friends at Crowdcast:
http://blog.crowdcast.com/?p=111
Finding Footing Wherever Prediction is Key
Posted by Dan
November 20, 2009
Universities represent our collective future. Although universities
hand out diplomas to individuals, it’s our future doctors, CEOs and
world leaders who toss up their hats at the end of the ceremony,
right?
A recent CNET article highlighted an exercise at Singularity
University’s executive program. Melanie Swan, a Silicon Valley hedge
fund manager, had groups of students dream up revolutionary product
ideas and also had them bet in an online prediction market on which
group would get the most venture capital if their idea were real. The
reporter writes:
Despite the fact that some technical problems got in the way, the
point was made: prediction markets, given enough active participation,
are increasingly seen as an excellent way to arrive at the answers to
any number of questions, whether it’s sales figures, who will win
presidential elections, or who will get the most VC funding. Indeed,
the winning technology concept–a pill that could cure cancer–and team
were accurately prognosticated by the market.
The university’s study is certainly forward thinking. That said, one
should note that they’re not really running a prediction market –
they’re running an idea market. This is an important distinction to
make. When the students gear their bets towards ideas they think
investors will find attractive, this means that the final outcomes of
the market will be biased to the norm. We’ve discussed why idea
markets are flawed and this is where Crowdcast differentiates its
forecasting philosophy – gathering individual expertise to make more
informed predictions around critical, quantitative metrics, rather
than ideas.
Prediction markets everywhere are managing to find sure footing in
uncertain times. From financial prediction markets on CFO, to the
University of Iowa’s prediction markets on H1N1 virus outbreaks and
vaccine levels, prediction markets are enabling us to get clarity
around areas that were once opaque. Where else will we see the
crowdsourced predictions put to work? The real-estate market? The
struggling fashion industry?
Let’s put this very question to the wisdom of the crowds – send us
your thoughts!
Warm Regards,
Jennifer
www.pmclusters.com
Enjoy this noteworthy blog from our friends at Crowdcast:
http://blog.crowdcast.com/?p=111
Finding Footing Wherever Prediction is Key
Posted by Dan
November 20, 2009
Universities represent our collective future. Although universities
hand out diplomas to individuals, it’s our future doctors, CEOs and
world leaders who toss up their hats at the end of the ceremony,
right?
A recent CNET article highlighted an exercise at Singularity
University’s executive program. Melanie Swan, a Silicon Valley hedge
fund manager, had groups of students dream up revolutionary product
ideas and also had them bet in an online prediction market on which
group would get the most venture capital if their idea were real. The
reporter writes:
Despite the fact that some technical problems got in the way, the
point was made: prediction markets, given enough active participation,
are increasingly seen as an excellent way to arrive at the answers to
any number of questions, whether it’s sales figures, who will win
presidential elections, or who will get the most VC funding. Indeed,
the winning technology concept–a pill that could cure cancer–and team
were accurately prognosticated by the market.
The university’s study is certainly forward thinking. That said, one
should note that they’re not really running a prediction market –
they’re running an idea market. This is an important distinction to
make. When the students gear their bets towards ideas they think
investors will find attractive, this means that the final outcomes of
the market will be biased to the norm. We’ve discussed why idea
markets are flawed and this is where Crowdcast differentiates its
forecasting philosophy – gathering individual expertise to make more
informed predictions around critical, quantitative metrics, rather
than ideas.
Prediction markets everywhere are managing to find sure footing in
uncertain times. From financial prediction markets on CFO, to the
University of Iowa’s prediction markets on H1N1 virus outbreaks and
vaccine levels, prediction markets are enabling us to get clarity
around areas that were once opaque. Where else will we see the
crowdsourced predictions put to work? The real-estate market? The
struggling fashion industry?
Let’s put this very question to the wisdom of the crowds – send us
your thoughts!
Warm Regards,
Jennifer
www.pmclusters.com
Jennifer Hulett
Nov 21, 2009, 2:08:14 PM11/21/09
to Prediction Markets
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