Florida again poised to play kingmaker
goozlefotz
Florida again poised to play kingmaker
By BETH FOUHY, Associated Press Writer
Sat Jun 30, 3:14 AM ET
Florida broke Democrats' hearts in 2000 and snubbed them four years
later.
Wait till next year, say love-struck Democrats - and they could be
right.
Democrats are optimistic about capturing Florida in 2008 due to
President Bush's sagging popularity, the ongoing Iraq war and the
demise of the immigration bill, in which the heated rhetoric from
conservative quarters has alienated many in the state's large, fast-
changing Hispanic population.
"Playing in Florida is very expensive, but it's very rewarding, and
the candidates know that," said Bob Poe, a former state Democratic
Party chairman who's supporting Barack Obama. "Republicans have a
strong organization here, but the air is out of that balloon.
President Bush has deflated the Republican Party."
All the major Democratic contenders will be here Saturday, addressing
a national convention of Hispanic elected officials at Walt Disney
World. Only one GOP candidate, California Rep. Duncan Hunter, accepted
the group's invitation to appear.
Long a fundraising destination for candidates of both parties, Florida
recently made a controversial move to boost its clout in the primary
process, moving its primary up to Jan. 29 - just weeks after Iowa,
Nevada and New Hampshire.
The move defied both GOP and Democratic Party rules and set the stage
for a possible primary scramble that could push other states to switch
to December. But Floridians make no apologies for upending the
calendar.
"Everybody here feels we are getting our rightful place in the
limelight," said Susan MacManus, a political scientist at the
University of South Florida. "The sentiment here has been, 'You come
for our money, but you don't want our vote.' The national parties need
to be aware of that sense of disenfranchisement."
Unlike the traditional early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire,
Florida will test the candidates' ability to compete in a large and
ethnically diverse state.
Nearly 20 percent of its 17.7 million residents are Hispanic, and more
than 15 percent are black. The state has several large cities as well
as vast agricultural areas, while the condo communities that dot the
coastline are brimming with newly arrived retirees.
Politically, the state remains nearly as divided as it was during the
contested 2000 election, when Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore by just
537 votes. Registered Democrats slightly outnumber registered
Republicans, and the ranks of independents are growing.
Republicans have scored big in Florida in recent years, thanks to a
muscular political operation developed by the president's brother,
former Gov. Jeb Bush. But Democrats picked up two House seats in 2006
and gained ground in the state Legislature.
The recent immigration debate in Congress has further complicated
matters for the GOP. While the reform bill was championed by President
Bush and Florida Sen. Mel Martinez, the national Republican chairman,
the bill met overwhelming opposition from GOP base voters and most of
the party's leading presidential candidates. Only one, Arizona Sen.
John McCain, supported the measure.
"The challenge to Republicans is to articulate a stance on immigration
that does not appear anti-Hispanic. I don't think we've done that,"
said Marco Rubio, the Cuban-American Florida House Speaker and a
Republican.
Another Cuban-American lawmaker, state Rep. David Rivera, disagreed.
"The anti-immigration effort has been bipartisan," said Rivera, a
Miami Republican. "A lot of Hispanics understand that Mel Martinez and
President Bush speak for them."
Cuban-Americans have long been a reliable political constituency for
Republicans in Florida, but the population is changing, with many more
Hispanics moving to the state from Puerto Rico and Latin America. In
2006, a majority of Hispanic voters here favored Democratic
candidates.
Democrats believe the acerbic language that accompanied the
immigration debate could cost Republicans dearly in the general
election.
"It's not so much the legislation, it's the vitriol with which
Republicans speak about immigrants that really turns Hispanics off to
them," Florida Democratic Party spokesman Mark Bubriski said.
Among the GOP candidates, a recent statewide poll showed former New
York Mayor Rudy Giuliani leading and undeclared candidate Fred
Thompson second. McCain and Mitt Romney were in single digits, but
Romney has close ties to Jeb Bush and has been aggressively working to
build an organization here.
Thompson ignited controversy at a recent speech in South Carolina when
he decried the flow of illegal immigrants from Cuba, saying: "I don't
imagine they're coming here to bring greetings from Castro. We're
living in the era of the suitcase bomb."
The clip has been circulating widely on YouTube, prompting Thompson to
post a note on his campaign blog saying he was referring to Cuban
spies, not immigrants.
On the Democratic side, front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton is running
strong in Florida, with a hefty distance between her and leading rival
Barack Obama.
The state's new primary date has complicated matters for the
candidates, because the Democratic National Committee has threatened
to strip delegates from any candidate who competes in Florida. But
with 185 delegates at stake, which the nominee can reinstate at the
party's national convention, few expect the candidates to stay away.
Clinton aides say she will definitely compete in the primary. It's a
harder call for Obama and John Edwards, both of whom are banking on a
good showing the same day in South Carolina.
Copyright © 2007 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
GATORPOP
kingmaker any more. Ohio took over from us, and another state should
take its turn next.
Being the "Kingmaker" caused us nothing but grief, and it was similar
grief for Ohio the next time around.
How bout our usual comfortable Republican victory by enough votes to
avoid controversy and tie up our courts, which we managed the second
time around?
GP
cheech
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