Odd 'Miller A/B'-looking cyclone this go'round... altho secondary
coastal development isn't in response to northern stream energy but a
second....southern stream short-wave flying east after under-cutting
the high-amplitude long-wave ridge along west coast.
-----
Deadline: 10:30 PM EST THU...04-FEB-10
Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Verification begins: 12:01 AM EST FRI...05-FEB-10
Verification ends: 11:59 PM EST SAT...06-FEB-10
Enter your forecast at the Contest web site @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or annoying requests for
personal information to enter. Just a fun exercise to see who can make
the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.
If you are issuing your first forecast this year...or you entered the
'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account
(user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your
forecast sent to your Inbox).
On Feb 3, 7:16 pm, TQ <n...@newx-forecasts.com> wrote:
> Phasing streams...negative tilted 5H trof...incredible amounts of Gulf
> o'Mexico moisture invading the mid-Atlantic...significant comma head /
> deformation. HPC seems to think a major winter event is in the offing
> this weekend...so it's high time for Contest #4.
>
> Odd 'Miller A/B'-looking cyclone this go'round... altho secondary
> coastal development isn't in response to northern stream energy but a
> second....southern stream short-wave flying east after under-cutting
> the high-amplitude long-wave ridge along west coast.
> -----
> Deadline: 10:30 PM EST THU...04-FEB-10
>
> Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
> Verification begins: 12:01 AM EST FRI...05-FEB-10
> Verification ends: 11:59 PM EST SAT...06-FEB-10
>
> Enter your forecast at the Contest web site @http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Entry No. 910
Forecaster = envihoo11
Time = 2/4/2010 2:07:33 AM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = 0
HYA = 0
ORH = 0
PVD = 0
BDR = 0
BDL = 0
ALB = 0
BGM = 0
ISP = 0
JFK = 0
ABE = 0
MDT = 0
PHL = 0
ACY = 0
EWR = 0
BWI = 0
IAD = 21
DCA = 16
SBY = 0
RIC = 9
ORF =
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 911
Forecaster = bubbler86
Time = 2/4/2010 7:29:05 AM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = 4
HYA = 3
ORH = 4
PVD = 5
BDR = 5
BDL = 4
ALB = 2
BGM = 4
ISP = 6
JFK = 7
ABE = 9
MDT = 13
PHL = 16
ACY = 17
EWR = 11
BWI = 23
IAD = 23
DCA = 21
SBY = 16
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 912
Forecaster = mkarpisc
Time = 2/4/2010 10:06:58 AM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = 0
HYA = 0
ORH = 0
PVD = 0
BDR = 0
BDL = 0
ALB = 0
BGM = 0
ISP = 0
JFK = 0
ABE = 0
MDT = 0
PHL = 8.5
ACY = 0
EWR = 0
BWI = 0
IAD = 0
DCA = 0
SBY = 0
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 913
Forecaster = bruced39
Time = 2/4/2010 1:19:49 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = .05
HYA = 1.6
ORH = .05
PVD = 1.2
BDR = 4.4
BDL = 2.2
ALB = .05
BGM = 2.7
ISP = 3
JFK = 4.2
ABE = 9.5
MDT = 15.5
PHL = 13.3
ACY = 10
EWR = 5.8
BWI = 20.5
IAD = 22
DCA = 21.2
SBY = 11.5
RIC = 13.5
ORF = 4.8
RDU = 2.5
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 914
Forecaster = Professor1313blue13
Time = 2/4/2010 1:48:38 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = 0
HYA = 0
ORH = 0
PVD = 0
BDR = 0
BDL = 0
ALB = 0
BGM = 0
ISP = 0
JFK = 0
ABE = 0
MDT = 0
PHL = 0
ACY = 0
EWR = 0
BWI = 0
IAD = 0
DCA = 0
SBY = 0
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 2
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 915
Forecaster = herb@maws
Time = 2/4/2010 5:41:41 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = 0
HYA = 0.1
ORH = 0
PVD = 0
BDR = 3
BDL = 0
ALB = 0
BGM = 0
ISP = 6
JFK = 7
ABE = 11
MDT = 13
PHL = 15
ACY = 14
EWR = 6
BWI = 23
IAD = 23
DCA = 19
SBY = 5
RIC = 5
ORF = 0.05
RDU = 0.05
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 916
Forecaster = weatherT
Time = 2/4/2010 5:43:58 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = 0
HYA = 0.5
ORH = 0
PVD = 1.0
BDR = 1.1
BDL = 0.6
ALB = 0
BGM = 0
ISP = 2.0
JFK = 1.5
ABE = 3.5
MDT = 7.5
PHL = 7.0
ACY = 9.0
EWR = 2.3
BWI = 14.5
IAD = 18.0
DCA = 16.5
SBY = 2.0
RIC = 1.8
ORF = 1.1
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 917
Forecaster = Roger Smith
Time = 2/4/2010 5:56:16 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = 2.0
HYA = 4.5
ORH = 0.5
PVD = 1.3
BDR = 3.8
BDL = 1.5
ALB = 0.1
BGM = 1.3
ISP = 4.5
JFK = 3.0
ABE = 5.5
MDT = 12.0
PHL = 16.5
ACY = 18.8
EWR = 3.3
BWI = 22.0
IAD = 22.0
DCA = 18.0
SBY = 14.5
RIC = 3.3
ORF = 2.2
RDU = 1.1
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 918
Forecaster = nnjwxguy78
Time = 2/4/2010 9:18:09 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = 4.0
HYA = 4.5
ORH = 4.0
PVD = 3.0
BDR = 2.0
BDL = 1.0
ALB = 1.0
BGM = 1.0
ISP = 14.0
JFK = 16.0
ABE = 2.0
MDT = .5
PHL = 12
ACY = 19
EWR = 19
BWI = 18
IAD = 18
DCA = 16
SBY = 1
RIC = 2.5
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments = Think the big jackpot is closer to my backyard than
progged...but man oh man, I am glad I have a day job.
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 919
Forecaster = catatonia
Time = 2/4/2010 9:22:33 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = 0
HYA = 0.5
ORH = 0
PVD = 0.7
BDR = 2.2
BDL = 0
ALB = 0
BGM = 0
ISP = 3.5
JFK = 4.3
ABE = 7.6
MDT = 11.5
PHL = 12.2
ACY = 15.3
EWR = 6.7
BWI = 23.5
IAD = 26.9
DCA = 17.7
SBY = 5.9
RIC = 8.8
ORF = 2.3
RDU = 2.1
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 920
Forecaster = millersville_bauers
Time = 2/4/2010 9:28:07 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = 0
HYA = 0.05
ORH = 0
PVD = 0.05
BDR = 2.8
BDL = 0
ALB = 0
BGM = 0.05
ISP = 5.8
JFK = 5.0
ABE = 8.2
MDT = 7.9
PHL = 14.0
ACY = 8.0
EWR = 7.5
BWI = 18.0
IAD = 16.0
DCA = 16.5
SBY = 2.7
RIC = 4.3
ORF = 0.05
RDU = 0.05
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 921
Forecaster = wxblaster
Time = 2/4/2010 9:39:48 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = 0.05
HYA = 0.05
ORH = 0.05
PVD = 0.05
BDR = 0.05
BDL = 0.05
ALB = 0
BGM = 0.05
ISP = 4.8
JFK = 8.0
ABE = 5.5
MDT = 12.9
PHL = 14.8
ACY = 13.7
EWR = 9.0
BWI = 19.5
IAD = 21.0
DCA = 23.0
SBY = 13.0
RIC = 3.0
ORF = 1.0
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 922
Forecaster = pspeck14
Time = 2/4/2010 9:40:35 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = .05
HYA = 1
ORH = 0
PVD = 1
BDR = .05
BDL = 1
ALB = 0
BGM = 1
ISP = 4
JFK = 3
ABE = 2
MDT = 6
PHL = 12
ACY = 16
EWR = 7
BWI = 19
IAD = 26
DCA = 25
SBY = 27
RIC = 3
ORF = 3
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 923
Forecaster = wxfrisch
Time = 2/4/2010 9:42:14 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = .05
HYA = .25
ORH = .05
PVD = .25
BDR = .05
BDL = .05
ALB = 0
BGM = 0
ISP = .75
JFK = 3
ABE = 3
MDT = 16.5
PHL = 10
ACY = 10
EWR = 10
BWI = 25
IAD = 31
DCA = 30
SBY = 3
RIC = 3
ORF = 1
RDU = 0
Comments = WOW!!!
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 924
Forecaster = Mitchel Volk
Time = 2/4/2010 9:45:16 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = 0
HYA = 0
ORH = 0
PVD = 0
BDR = 0
BDL = 0
ALB = 0
BGM = 0
ISP = 1
JFK = 2
ABE = 4
MDT = 4
PHL = 7
ACY = 15
EWR = 2
BWI = 16
IAD = 16
DCA = 17
SBY = 11
RIC = 7
ORF = 4
RDU = 1
Comments = Tight precip gradent
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 925
Forecaster = wxzimmer
Time = 2/4/2010 9:49:41 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = 0
HYA = .05
ORH = 0
PVD = .05
BDR = 3
BDL = 2
ALB = 0
BGM = 0
ISP = 5
JFK = 5
ABE = 6
MDT = 12
PHL = 9
ACY = 14
EWR = 6
BWI = 16
IAD = 20
DCA = 21
SBY = 19
RIC = 19
ORF = .05
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 926
Forecaster = wxdanielap
Time = 2/4/2010 9:50:21 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = 0
HYA = .05
ORH = .05
PVD = 2
BDR = 6.25
BDL = 2
ALB = 5
BGM = 8
ISP = 9
JFK = 6
ABE = 8.24
MDT = 9
PHL = 15
ACY = 20
EWR = 7
BWI = 3
IAD = 10
DCA = 5
SBY = 7
RIC = 19
ORF = .05
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 927
Forecaster = Newa2010
Time = 2/4/2010 9:57:26 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = 0
HYA = 0.5
ORH = 0
PVD = 0.2
BDR = 2.5
BDL = 0.1
ALB = 0
BGM = 0.05
ISP = 6.0
JFK = 6.0
ABE = 7.0
MDT = 10.0
PHL = 12.0
ACY = 10.0
EWR = 6.0
BWI = 18.0
IAD = 18.0
DCA = 18.0
SBY = 10.0
RIC = 6.0
ORF = 1.0
RDU = 0.05
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 928
Forecaster = wxduff
Time = 2/4/2010 9:57:39 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = 0
HYA = 0.2
ORH = 0
PVD = 0.1
BDR = 3
BDL = .1
ALB = 0
BGM = .1
ISP = 4
JFK = 5
ABE = 7
MDT = 9
PHL = 18
ACY = 10
EWR = 10
BWI = 24
IAD = 29
DCA = 30
SBY = 18
RIC = 4
ORF = 2.5
RDU = 0
Comments = All WX forecasters are Oswego State Students. WXFOX,
WXDUFF, WXFRISCH, and WXBLASTER are upperclassmen.
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 929
Forecaster = wxfox51
Time = 2/4/2010 10:01:13 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = 0
HYA = 0.2
ORH = 0
PVD = 0.8
BDR = 2
BDL = 0.05
ALB = 0
BGM = 0.05
ISP = 5
JFK = 6
ABE = 8
MDT = 10.5
PHL = 15.5
ACY = 16
EWR = 9
BWI = 26
IAD = 33
DCA = 29
SBY = 14
RIC = 2.5
ORF = 1.7
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 930
Forecaster = snowman
Time = 2/4/2010 10:03:47 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = 0
HYA = 0
ORH = 0
PVD = 0
BDR = 0
BDL = 0
ALB = 0
BGM = 0
ISP = 0
JFK = 0
ABE = 0
MDT = .25
PHL = 1.25
ACY = 1.75
EWR = .75
BWI = 5.50
IAD = 5
DCA = 6.25
SBY = 5
RIC = 8
ORF = 6
RDU = 2
Comments = Another miss for the NE.
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 931
Forecaster = snowman
Time = 2/4/2010 10:11:41 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = 0
HYA = 0
ORH = 0
PVD = 0
BDR = 0
BDL = 0
ALB = 0
BGM = 0
ISP = 3.5
JFK = 3
ABE = 0
MDT = 4
PHL = 7
ACY = 7
EWR = 4
BWI = 16
IAD = 17
DCA = 15.5
SBY = 12
RIC = 15
ORF = 12
RDU = 9
Comments = Please disregard the first forecast I submitted.
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 932
Forecaster = TQ
Time = 2/4/2010 10:23:09 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = 0
HYA = 0
ORH = 0
PVD = 0
BDR = 0
BDL = 0
ALB = 0
BGM = 0
ISP = .05
JFK = .05
ABE = 2
MDT = 8
PHL = 8
ACY = 8
EWR = 2
BWI = 14
IAD = 14
DCA = 18
SBY = 18
RIC = 6
ORF = 2
RDU = 1
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 933
Forecaster = ilibov
Time = 2/4/2010 10:23:45 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = .05
HYA = .05
ORH = 0.05
PVD = .05
BDR = 3.6
BDL = 4.2
ALB = 1.0
BGM = 1.0
ISP = 9.5
JFK = 8.6
ABE = 8.3
MDT = 13.5
PHL = 17.6
ACY = 18.5
EWR = 8.5
BWI = 22.7
IAD = 22.7
DCA = 22.7
SBY = 5.2
RIC = 9.2
ORF = 0.5
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 934
Forecaster = donsutherland1
Time = 2/4/2010 10:28:47 PM
CAR = 0.3
BGR = 0.05
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = 0
HYA = 0.05
ORH = 0
PVD = 0
BDR = 0.3
BDL = 0
ALB = 0
BGM = 0
ISP = 2.7
JFK = 5.0
ABE = 6.0
MDT = 10.5
PHL = 12.0
ACY = 13.8
EWR = 5.2
BWI = 20.0
IAD = 21.5
DCA = 18.7
SBY = 11.8
RIC = 7.5
ORF = 2.5
RDU = 0.9
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 935
Forecaster = Raven
Time = 2/4/2010 10:28:56 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = 0
HYA = 0
ORH = 0
PVD = 0
BDR = 3.0
BDL = 0
ALB = 0
BGM = 0
ISP = 6.0
JFK = 6.0
ABE = 6.0
MDT = 10.3
PHL = 13.0
ACY = 11.6
EWR = 5.5
BWI = 20.0
IAD = 21.0
DCA = 21.0
SBY = 8.0
RIC = 6.0
ORF = 3.6
RDU = 1.2
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 936
Forecaster = Donald Rosenfeld
Time = 2/4/2010 10:29:38 PM
CAR = 1
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 1
BOS = 0
HYA = .25
ORH = 0
PVD = 0
BDR = 0
BDL = 0
ALB = 0
BGM = 0
ISP = .25
JFK = .25
ABE = 2.75
MDT = 6
PHL = 7
ACY = 7
EWR = .25
BWI = 13
IAD = 15
DCA = 15.5
SBY = 10
RIC = 8
ORF = 3
RDU = 1
Comments =
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 937
Forecaster = Shillelagh
Time = 2/4/2010 10:29:38 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = 0
HYA = 0.05
ORH = 0
PVD = 0
BDR = 1.5
BDL = 0
ALB = 0
BGM = 0
ISP = 3
JFK = 4.5
ABE = 6
MDT = 7.5
PHL = 11.5
ACY = 17
EWR = 3
BWI = 14
IAD = 15
DCA = 17.5
SBY = 9.5
RIC = 5
ORF = 1.5
RDU = 0.5
Comments = Snow fo Philly. How depressing. And a lot of it.
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 938
Forecaster = emoran
Time = 2/4/2010 10:30:17 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = 0
HYA = 0
ORH = 0
PVD = 0
BDR = 0
BDL = 0
ALB = 0
BGM = 0
ISP = 0.05
JFK = 1
ABE = 4
MDT = 11
PHL = 10
ACY = 13
EWR = 2
BWI = 17
IAD = 18
DCA = 17
SBY = 10
RIC = 8
ORF = 5
RDU = 1.5
Comments = 40S!!
----End of Entry----
Entry No. 939
Forecaster = ilibov
Time = 2/4/2010 10:30:20 PM
CAR = 0
BGR = 0
PWM = 0
CON = 0
BTV = 0
BOS = .05
HYA = .05
ORH = .05
PVD = 1.5
BDR = 4.8
BDL = 3.5
ALB = 1.6
BGM = 1.4
ISP = 9.5
JFK = 8.6
ABE = 7.5
MDT = 13.5
PHL = 17.6
ACY = 18.5
EWR = 8.5
BWI = 22.7
IAD = 22.7
DCA = 22.7
SBY = 5.2
RIC = 9.2
ORF = 0.5
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----
28 entries...including 10 Rookies... seven of which entered their
first contest this winter...three Interns...one Journeyman...and 12
Senior forecasters...issued 446 station forecasts for the winter/s 4th
contest snow storm.
Everyone's station forecasts have been posted on the Contest's web
site.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Unbelievable amounts towards DC and BALT...
Check out the DCA "official" #s...way low compared to everything else
around them (other NWS Climate stations in area and CoCoRAHS / PNS
reports. What gives there? Their Liquid Equivalents have also been
33-50% lower than anything around them...and radar doesn't support a
snow-hole theory...
Roger also placed 1st in the 'average absolute error' category with an
average error of 2.7" per station (24 stations forecast).
He had the lowest station errors @BOS...MDT...BWI...and ORF.
Congratulations Roger Smith!
2nd Place: catatonia (SUMSQ error: 493.2"; Z-score: -0.964)
3rd Place: wxfox51* (500.5"; -0.946)
Honorable Mention: herb @ maws (521"; -0.894)
*Rookie
Full forecast verification...storm summary...and final results at the
Contest web site.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/